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Blackpool - Manchester Electrification

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LDECRexile

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I suggest these statements in the article are the nub of the problem:

"At current prices (as are all prices in this article), the GWML programme was to cost £1.28 billion. It is now likely to cost £3.17 billion or £4 million per single track kilometre (stk)." - Nearly three FOLD, LDECRexile

"... electrification’s benefits will not be realised unless the industry can convince the Government that it can be delivered at an acceptable cost. This is a significant challenge given that, in its report on the cancellation of electrification projects, the NAO noted that, in addition to the previously mentioned increase in GWML costs, Midland main line electrification costs had increased from £695 to £1,297 million between October 2013 and November 2014. Furthermore, electrification project delays do not inspire confidence in project delivery." - way over budget and late, LDECRexile

"Mark Carne’s response to the high GWML electrification costs is that “we’ve discovered the cost of electrification of the network is very expensive” and that “in the meantime the trains are getting better”. This reflects the Government view that electrification is just too expensive and, with bi-mode trains, no longer necessary." NR's top man agrees that that's how it is, LDECRexile

"A key factor not mentioned in these reports was that, when work started on the GWML programme, there had been negligible electrification undertaken in the previous twenty years. As a result, both Network Rail and its contractors had lost key skills and knowledge since the 1994 Heathrow electrification. We didn't know what we were doing, LDECRexile In addition, there were inevitable inefficiencies associated with the rapid mobilisation of the supply chain for large-scale electrification work. - Suppliers saw us coming, LDECRexile.

"Although much has gone wrong with GWML electrification, David considers that it is not helpful to assign blame, especially as he feels that “the whole industry got it wrong”. "the whole industry got it wrong, LDECRexile.

"The two factors that seem to make a big difference are that Scottish electrification is a relatively small rolling programme and that Transport Scotland is a strong, informed client." Ok, we bit off more than we could chew, but let's not assign blame, except to the DfT, LDECRexile

I am undiminished in my belief that electrification is desirable, but not at any old price. Government have a duty to protect the public purse.

I am unconvinced that a bit of benchmarking and a bit of bitter experience and a bit of reducing standards will reduce prices from £4M per stk to £1.2M, but I remain convincible.

I therefore have a practical proposal: contract Transport Scotland and a team from Network Rail Scotland to do the business from Oxenholme to Windermere, using Sassenach labour in the main, at all levels, including DfT. If that can come in at less than £1.4M per stk and less than 1 month late, then they can spread their wings, acting as arms' length consultants to bigger projects, like Kettering-Sheffield or Cardiff-Swansea and the Valleys.
 
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GRALISTAIR

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My recollection is that cubes were 150mm and that a set of three was prepared from each batch of fresh concrete. It would be quite difficult to fill and tamp a cube as small as 50mm with fresh concrete and obtain a representative sample given the size of aggregate in most mixes.

When we took samples of cured concrete, it was usually by means of coring and in that case the samples were of smaller dimensions.

Edit: The photos linked to in #7550 seem to show the standard 150mm cubes.

I agree that for accurate intrinsic strength 150 mm ( 6 inch) cubes are used. Day to day batch clearance etc are 50 mm. I can post links to the ASTM etc if needed. Both are valuable but 150 mm as you say removes the risk of too much variation from aggregate size ( and to a lesser degree ) shape.
 

CAF397

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A quick grab photo from platform 3 at Bolton of the earth wire terminating on a mast.
 

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LNW-GW Joint

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I am undiminished in my belief that electrification is desirable, but not at any old price. Government have a duty to protect the public purse.
I am unconvinced that a bit of benchmarking and a bit of bitter experience and a bit of reducing standards will reduce prices from £4M per stk to £1.2M, but I remain convincible.
I therefore have a practical proposal: contract Transport Scotland and a team from Network Rail Scotland to do the business from Oxenholme to Windermere, using Sassenach labour in the main, at all levels, including DfT. If that can come in at less than £1.4M per stk and less than 1 month late, then they can spread their wings, acting as arms' length consultants to bigger projects, like Kettering-Sheffield or Cardiff-Swansea and the Valleys.

While very worthy, the RIA investigation doesn't prove anything in DfT or even Network Rail circles.
Network Rail continues to make a mountain out of every electrification molehill.
DfT distrusts NR's design and delivery capability (not helped politically by the current timetable meltdown).
Even £1.2m per stkm is twice the £650K cost NR posted as the "going rate" in 2009 (yes, there will have been some inflation, but not 100%).
Even Scotrail is late/over budget with EGIP, with some well-publicised design issues.
But all their projects are more modest 100mph lines with fairly simple layouts (compared to GWML).
The table in the report is also overoptimistic in the degree of lateness of some projects.
Liverpool-Newton-le-Willows/Wigan was not on time (and certainly not the last bit into Victoria), as we all know it was due in Dec 2014.
I think NR still has it all to do to convince DfT to authorise another electrification scheme in CP6.
It will also be "under new management" shortly (Andrew Haines).
 

Grumpy

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Whilst not necessarily disagreeing with anything in LDECexile's post above, the crux of the problem is the unsuitability of most of the the Network Rail Board and senior management. It's all summed up in the statement-

"Mark Carne’s response to the high GWML electrification costs is that “we’ve discovered the cost of electrification of the network is very expensive” .

Well no sh9t Sherlock, it always has been. You're paid the big bucks to have known this already and to have senior colleagues who have a deep knowledge of the business you are in, and to be able to ask the right questions of your subordinates and of their proposals before the event, not after.

Network rail is fundamentally railway infrastructure engineering. Yet looking at the make up of the Board and senior management there's hardly anyone with the slightest experience in that area. You will look in vain for someone with a CV showing the likes of "30 years experience in railway civil engineering or signal engineering or railway electrification engineering". Instead its stuffed with people with totally irrelevant background either from outside the world of transport or non engineers. Lots of people with nice smiles, tidy haircuts, expensive clothes and no doubt all the right generic patter . But the need isn't people who know about the bus industry or building societies, it's for people with the experience to be able to spot what's going wrong in sufficient time to put it right.
 

superkev

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Whilst not necessarily disagreeing with anything in LDECexile's post above, the crux of the problem is the unsuitability of most of the the Network Rail Board and senior management. It's all summed up in the statement-

"Mark Carne’s response to the high GWML electrification costs is that “we’ve discovered the cost of electrification of the network is very expensive” .

Well no sh9t Sherlock, it always has been. You're paid the big bucks to have known this already and to have senior colleagues who have a deep knowledge of the business you are in, and to be able to ask the right questions of your subordinates and of their proposals before the event, not after.

Network rail is fundamentally railway infrastructure engineering. Yet looking at the make up of the Board and senior management there's hardly anyone with the slightest experience in that area. You will look in vain for someone with a CV showing the likes of "30 years experience in railway civil engineering or signal engineering or railway electrification engineering". Instead its stuffed with people with totally irrelevant background either from outside the world of transport or non engineers. Lots of people with nice smiles, tidy haircuts, expensive clothes and no doubt all the right generic patter . But the need isn't people who know about the bus industry or building societies, it's for people with the experience to be able to spot what's going wrong in sufficient time to put it right.
On the same vain I can't think of any top football clubs with managers who wernt good footballers.
Having managment with no experience of what there actually managing seems a percurly British thing.
K
 

Silverdale

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On the same vain I can't think of any top football clubs with managers who wernt good footballers.
Having managment with no experience of what there actually managing seems a percurly British thing.
K

On the other other hand, there's no end of examples of highly skilled and successful footballers who turn out to be rubbish at management or coaching a team.
 

InOban

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I think they have to have been footballers, not necessarily great ones. Man management is not a skill which individual players require.

The senior management team must be made up of experts in their field. So the chief financial officer will be an accountant.And so NR requires a variety of engineers - track, bridge, signal etc right at the top of the business. But it also requires nonexecutive members of the board who are meant to bring a fresh pair of eyes from related businesses, and to ask the 'daft laddy' questions which the insiders won't ask of their colleagues.
 

Grumpy

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I think they have to have been footballers, not necessarily great ones. Man management is not a skill which individual players require.

The senior management team must be made up of experts in their field. So the chief financial officer will be an accountant.And so NR requires a variety of engineers - track, bridge, signal etc right at the top of the business. But it also requires nonexecutive members of the board who are meant to bring a fresh pair of eyes from related businesses, and to ask the 'daft laddy' questions which the insiders won't ask of their colleagues.
Indeed. The problem is the NR top tier are all "daft laddies" (whatever their personal merits) without the depth of industry knowledge.
 

Inox

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looked like there was a good long stretch from Lostock to Horwich on the up to be fully wired. Couldn't tell on the down because i was on it. I could only see people talking about the earth.


just found it:
'these presumably extend to the existing wired section' - looks like I'm late to the party.
 

LDECRexile

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Managed to get a picture of the Gravity Base at Salford Crescent mentioned yesterday:

by Chris Davis, on Flickr

Fab, thanks Chris.

New or occasional viewers may not realise that Chris is one of a several people who have kindly agreed to link their flickr material to the Combined Volume, thereby greatly extending its range in time and variety.

To access these albums go into the Combined Volume here:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/127646831@N03/albums/72157661069863633

When you are in, click on the very first image then when it comes up, look down the Comments below the image. Each Comment includes a link to someone's work. Click on one and away you go.
 

twpsaesneg

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In addition, there were inevitable inefficiencies associated with the rapid mobilisation of the supply chain for large-scale electrification work. - Suppliers saw us coming, LDECRexile.

I wouldn't say it was a case of "suppliers saw us coming", more that the political decision to try and wire the North West, GWML and MML at the same time whilst a fair amount of the scarce OLE resource in the UK was tied up with GEML rewiring and Crossrail put rates through the roof.

OLE Design has always been a bit feast or famine but that was ridiculous. There were day rates of £600+ being offered for relatively junior engineering grades. Similar inflated rates all the way from top dogs down to the linesmen. But this was because individuals could pretty much name their price rather than a concerted effort on the part of Contractors and Consultants.
 

notlob.divad

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I wouldn't say it was a case of "suppliers saw us coming", more that the political decision to try and wire the North West, GWML and MML at the same time whilst a fair amount of the scarce OLE resource in the UK was tied up with GEML rewiring and Crossrail put rates through the roof.

OLE Design has always been a bit feast or famine but that was ridiculous. There were day rates of £600+ being offered for relatively junior engineering grades. Similar inflated rates all the way from top dogs down to the linesmen. But this was because individuals could pretty much name their price rather than a concerted effort on the part of Contractors and Consultants.
Yes, this is the daftness coming from the top, and why rather than doing individual project based BCRs it would be better to have a rolling program of electrification investment. £x million / year. Then have a ranking list of the lines in order of priority based on the effectiveness of electrifying that line. Weighted proportionately for journey time savings, reliability/capacity improvements, released self powered rolling stock and diesel millage saved. That way, whilst it might not be predictable exactly where the work well be, there is a known pipeline of electrification schemes for the industry to be getting on with. One you have finished designing a scheme, you learn the lessons and move onto the next scheme.

The recent/offing fiasco is partly because a) someone thought they could win some votes, and b) someone predicted a lot of ex SE electric rolling stock would be coming up for cascade and looked for places to offload it to. These have to be the worst reasons for pushing electrification schemes as it will always lead to a feat or famine scenario and thus reduce the reliability of cost and time estimates.
 

swt_passenger

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... Then have a ranking list of the lines in order of priority based on the effectiveness of electrifying that line. Weighted proportionately for journey time savings, reliability/capacity improvements, released self powered rolling stock and diesel millage saved.
Wasn’t that part of what the 2009 NR Electrification RUS attempted to do?
 

Bertie the bus

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The point made in the Rail Engineer. When you have a nice steady 200 km per annum without breaks, costs come down.

That is just a personal opinion not a fact. The costs on the railway never come down and it isn’t confined to electrification schemes. The cost of reopening Portishead has doubled. The cost of new stations in Devon have doubled.
 

GRALISTAIR

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That is just a personal opinion not a fact. The costs on the railway never come down and it isn’t confined to electrification schemes. The cost of reopening Portishead has doubled. The cost of new stations in Devon have doubled.

Except it was backed up by strong supporting data with the graph showing steady electrification in Germany and anecdotal evidence from Scotland. I meant costs come down from where they are on GWML
 

twpsaesneg

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Wasn’t that part of what the 2009 NR Electrification RUS attempted to do?
Pretty much. But the politicians then went for the "everything now" option and here we are...

North West was kind of meant to ease us back in to large scale electrification with the bigger schemes following and more mechanised plant / high output once people had learnt the skills and a new set of norms worked out.

I'm confident that future schemes could and will be done more efficiently, however politicians and others need to learn to stop meddling with jobs half way through, that's one of the big challenges now in my view.
 

geoffk

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While very worthy, the RIA investigation doesn't prove anything in DfT or even Network Rail circles.
Network Rail continues to make a mountain out of every electrification molehill.
DfT distrusts NR's design and delivery capability (not helped politically by the current timetable meltdown).
Even Scotrail is late/over budget with EGIP, with some well-publicised design issues.
But all their projects are more modest 100mph lines with fairly simple layouts (compared to GWML).
It will also be "under new management" shortly (Andrew Haines).
No-one has mentioned the increase in OHLE clearances required by new EU regulations, from which the ORR failed to get a derogation. This delayed EGIP and was a major factor in cost increases elsewhere. (I know it's been covered in another thread). What is the rail industry doing to address this?
 

wrinkley

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anyone previously reported the wires between Lostock and Horwich?

There is an earth wire running from the north end of the down line platform at Lostock towards Horwich, photo plus others sent to Dave.
 

Silverdale

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The point made in the Rail Engineer. When you have a nice steady 200 km per annum without breaks, costs come down.

Costs come down. Also you build up a workforce with experience, reliable chains of supply, partnerships...

And electrification is not a special case. The same principles apply across the piece, whether the investment is in track, signalling or trains.

The reason we have the stop/start, feast/famine approach to investment in rail is that decision making is constrained by the 4/5 year political cycle. There is no political consensus, even about what level of continuous public investment in rail is appropriate, let alone the priorities. Until we do have that political consensus (and I am not holding my breath) we are unfortunately doomed to have these cost and time overruns during times of feast and be left to ruminate on what might have been during times of inevitable famine.
 
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