can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[Class 466]

Now the message has switched (surprise surprise!) to work from home if you can - this will further hamper commuter intensive TOCs (Like Southeastern) ability to make any kind of recovery.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Fifth Harmony need to release a hit "Use Public Transport"

Since they sang "Work From Home" a full four years before the majority of the world started to do so, this expectation is fairly realistic.

 

[yorksrob]

At least they haven't dug up "essential travel only". yet.

 

[bramling]

Now the message has switched (surprise surprise!) to work from home if you can - this will further hamper commuter intensive TOCs (Like Southeastern) ability to make any kind of recovery.

Presumably this is why the TOCs will just be on emergency measures for the foreseeable.

The outlier is of course TFL, simply because of the continuing game of politics between the government and Sadiq Khan. Especially with mayoral elections coming I suspect they will try to debase Khan as much as possible.

 

[Bletchleyite]

At least they haven't dug up "essential travel only". yet.

I'm not betting that Sturgeon won't. At least I got a trip up to Scotland in in July.

 

[Huntergreed]

I'm not betting that Sturgeon won't. At least I got a trip up to Scotland in in July.

She already mentioned this at her briefing last week, and asked us all to travel only if “essential”. My bets for her speech:

All pubs and restaurants to close at (insert time between 9PM and 9:59PM just to be different from Boris)

No indoor household mixing permitted

Increased fines for flouting mask laws

Essential travel only on public transport (although, if she does this is it possible the “5 mile rule” could come back?)

 

[bramling]

She already mentioned this at her briefing last week, and asked us all to travel only if “essential”. My bets for her speech:

All pubs and restaurants to close at (insert time between 9PM and 9:59PM just to be different from Boris)

No indoor household mixing permitted

Increased fines for flouting mask laws

Essential travel only on public transport (although, if she does this is it possible the “5 mile rule” could come back?)

Have we heard anything for Wales yet?

 

[yorksrob]

I'm not betting that Sturgeon won't. At least I got a trip up to Scotland in in July.

I've written off Scotland for a bit.

I'm just glat the Carlisle service has gotten a bit better !

 

[takno]

I've written off Scotland for a bit.

So have I, and I live here

 

[MikeWM]

Well, I guess getting a refund on my Gold Card in March was a good plan after all. Early on, I was wondering if I'd been a bit premature doing that...

Our company had just started getting people back into the office too.

 

[Huntergreed]

I've written off Scotland for a bit.

I'm just glat the Carlisle service has gotten a bit better !

So have I, and I live here

Im a student in Glasgow, and I’m already planning for my birthday meal next month with friends to take place in Carlisle, because of the nonsensical “6-2” rule up here, which may very well be about to be come the “0-0” rule (indoors at least!)

 

[johntea]

There could now be a small increase in passenger usage around 10pm to the detriment of the hotel industry - people I suspect will be keener to just get the last train home at 10pm than book an overnight stay somewhere (and the business traveller market is of course literally zero at the moment)

 

[Bletchleyite]

There could now be a small increase in passenger usage around 10pm to the detriment of the hotel industry - people I suspect will be keener to just get the last train home at 10pm than book an overnight stay somewhere (and the business traveller market is of course literally zero at the moment)

And that's why I think 10pm is a "magic number" at preventing house parties afterwards. Last public transport services home in suburban and urban areas (outside very big cities) tend to be around 2200-2300.

 

[Jozhua]

Fifth Harmony need to release a hit "Use Public Transport"

Since they sang "Work From Home" a full four years before the majority of the world started to do so, this expectation is fairly realistic.

Hahahha

At least they haven't dug up "essential travel only". yet.

Not for long, I'm sure

Have we heard anything for Wales yet?

Wales is still saying essential travel only I think?

And that's why I think 10pm is a "magic number" at preventing house parties afterwards. Last public transport services home in suburban and urban areas (outside very big cities) tend to be around 2200-2300.

(outside very big cities excluding Manchester)
In my experience bus services actually get busier later in the day in Manchester. Anytime after six the bus is rammed.

Travelling by public transport outside Metrolink can pretty much be forgotten about after 10pm.

 

[kylemore]

Now we have established that spread outdoors when distanced from others is negligible, a ban on movement by car is unlikely. You'll still be able to go hillwalking by car because there's really no reason to ban it.

The fact that people are experiencing freedom and enjoyment will be reason enough to ban it eventually - that has been the real reason for all the other measures so why not this?

There is zero evidence that any of the freedom restricting measures since March have saved a single life.

 

[Meerkat]

The fact that people are experiencing freedom and enjoyment will be reason enough to ban it eventually - that has been the real reason for all the other measures so why not this?

There is zero evidence that any of the freedom restricting measures since March have saved a single life.

Wow, that is tinfoil hat territory!
i don’t agree with all the measures, but do believe they are wrong with good intentions. Do you really believe libertarian Boris, hounded by a gang of even more libertarian MPs, would restrict freedom any more than he felt he had to? He is refusing to do all that the scientists want.

 

[kylemore]

Wow, that is tinfoil hat territory!
i don’t agree with all the measures, but do believe they are wrong with good intentions. Do you really believe libertarian Boris, hounded by a gang of even more libertarian MPs, would restrict freedom any more than he felt he had to? He is refusing to do all that the scientists want.

If you only look at the appearance and at the surface of things, yes you are quite right. You won't get anywhere near the truth unless you're prepared to dig.

Boris is no libertarian, or rather Boris's string-pullers are no libertarians, in my way of looking at things you, or indeed I, do not even know the names of those truly in charge.

However a friend of mine raises an interesting possibility - that this (largely) contrived event is being carried out to avoid some kind of other catastrophe which would impact us even more adversely, financial, environmental, whatever - a sort of tough love. It is interesting that many major figures when discussing the "new normal" - such as Mark Carney for instance, emphasise that the new normal after this change event is going to be "Green" and stress there will be no place for businesses, organisations or indeed people who are not part of that agenda, and Mark Carney is a far more important figure than Boris.

I hope my friend is right, however I have my doubts as to the altruism of those set above us.

Anyway you could be right and I could be wrong - I think an open mind is one of the best weapons to have in trying to figure this out.

P.S. I always receive the "tinfoil hat" label as a compliment - it's a mark of honour in my eyes!

 

[Scrotnig]

libertarian Boris

Again, 'libertarian Boris' who purchased three water cannons to use against the citizens of London.

Sorry but he is not even slightly libertarian.

 

[Cowley]

Ok I’ve no idea where to place those last few posts, but they’re definitely not relevant to - Can public transport ever recover from Covid-19.
Can we steer this back on topic from now please.

 

[Meerkat]

If you only look at the appearance and at the surface of things, yes you are quite right. You won't get anywhere near the truth unless you're prepared to dig.

Boris is no libertarian, or rather Boris's string-pullers are no libertarians, in my way of looking at things you, or indeed I, do not even know the names of those truly in charge.

However a friend of mine raises an interesting possibility - that this (largely) contrived event is being carried out to avoid some kind of other catastrophe which would impact us even more adversely, financial, environmental, whatever - a sort of tough love. It is interesting that many major figures when discussing the "new normal" - such as Mark Carney for instance, emphasise that the new normal after this change event is going to be "Green" and stress there will be no place for businesses, organisations or indeed people who are not part of that agenda, and Mark Carney is a far more important figure than Boris.

I hope my friend is right, however I have my doubts as to the altruism of those set above us.

Anyway you could be right and I could be wrong - I think an open mind is one of the best weapons to have in trying to figure this out.

P.S. I always receive the "tinfoil hat" label as a compliment - it's a mark of honour in my eyes!

Frankly, the rest of that post confirms you will be keeping that label!

Again, 'libertarian Boris' who purchased three water cannons to use against the citizens of London.

Sorry but he is not even slightly libertarian.

He is libertarian - I don’t think many libertarians, even at the crazy end, think freedom to riot is an important liberty!
Also he is a politician - needs to look tough on crime, and a trio of fairly irrelevant water cannon made a nice headline (until it went wrong!)
Even if he wasn’t very libertarian he cant politically get too tough on the restrictions - the crazy end of the Tory party (which he needs as they are the Brexity backbone too) are very very anti restrictions, if not full let-it-rippers.
Apologies to moderator - won’t go down this rabbit hole any more!

 

[DB]

If you only look at the appearance and at the surface of things, yes you are quite right. You won't get anywhere near the truth unless you're prepared to dig.

Boris is no libertarian, or rather Boris's string-pullers are no libertarians, in my way of looking at things you, or indeed I, do not even know the names of those truly in charge.

However a friend of mine raises an interesting possibility - that this (largely) contrived event is being carried out to avoid some kind of other catastrophe which would impact us even more adversely, financial, environmental, whatever - a sort of tough love. It is interesting that many major figures when discussing the "new normal" - such as Mark Carney for instance, emphasise that the new normal after this change event is going to be "Green" and stress there will be no place for businesses, organisations or indeed people who are not part of that agenda, and Mark Carney is a far more important figure than Boris.

I hope my friend is right, however I have my doubts as to the altruism of those set above us.

Anyway you could be right and I could be wrong - I think an open mind is one of the best weapons to have in trying to figure this out.

P.S. I always receive the "tinfoil hat" label as a compliment - it's a mark of honour in my eyes!

Read 'The Shock Doctrine' by Naomi Klein. This situation would fit right into the theory she puts forward there, which is basically that shocks to political systems and societies (be they naturally occurring or caused intentionally) will be used as an opportunity to further the interests of those who hold the reins of power.

 

[Mikey C]

I actually took my first NR journeys yesterday for 6 months. Are all trains like this (apologies for the poor quality of the 2nd photo!) but on the Chiltern 165, of the 10 seats in each bay of 2+2 and 3 + 3, SEVEN were taped off, while on the 168 again a large number were taped off.

 

[Meerkat]

I actually took my first NR journeys yesterday for 6 months. Are all trains like this (apologies for the poor quality of the 2nd photo!) but on the Chiltern 165, of the 10 seats in each bay of 2+2 and 3 + 3, SEVEN were taped off, while on the 168 again a large number were taped off.
View attachment 83835View attachment 83836View attachment 83837

SWR trains are nothing like that! A few extra stickers on the wall, and they aren’t even that obvious.

 

[birchesgreen]

I've been on WMR, LNWR, Northern, Merseyrail, EMR and XC trains recently and not seen anything like that.

I probably will be on a Chiltern train on saturday though so that will be interesting...

 

[Class 466]

I actually took my first NR journeys yesterday for 6 months. Are all trains like this (apologies for the poor quality of the 2nd photo!) but on the Chiltern 165, of the 10 seats in each bay of 2+2 and 3 + 3, SEVEN were taped off, while on the 168 again a large number were taped off.
View attachment 83835View attachment 83836View attachment 83837

Chiltern & Norther are the only ones who have really done it to this extreme, it's unnecessary really.

 

[kylemore]

Ok I’ve no idea where to place those last few posts, but they’re definitely not relevant to - Can public transport ever recover from Covid-19.
Can we steer this back on topic from now please.

You're quite right - Covid-19 and the subsequent events are such a huge subject it's difficult not to wander off into slightly esoteric realms!

As for public transport's place in this economic reset event and the question of it's recovery, I think eventually it will play a more important role than it does today.

Not just Mark Carney but many highly placed figures in finance have been pushing the agenda that the "new normal" will be "Green". In many ways "Green" means poorer - and it has to be stressed that might not be a bad thing.

Since the 1970s the "Western" economies, led by the US have been living beyond their means and have built up an accumulated debt and blockage in the system that this event might well be addressing.

It may well be that motorised personal transport (however powered) will necessarily have to be priced out of the reach of ordinary people and that public transport will play a bigger role in people's lives.

In the short term however - even if the above scenario is even remotely accurate - there will be short to medium term heartache for public transport providers, their employees and users.

 

[telstarbox]

Here is The Graph. An average of 42% for the week 7 - 13 September, although that may go down again soon...
(The latest week of data is always underestimated and then revised later, so this only shows 'finalised' data.)

 

[Jamesrob637]

Here is The Graph. An average of 42% for the week 7 - 13 September, although that may go down again soon...
(The latest week of data is always underestimated and then revised later, so this only shows 'finalised' data.)

View attachment 83839

A slight blip at the end of last month but otherwise glacially recovering.

 

[theironroad]

A slight blip at the end of last month but otherwise glacially recovering.

I'll take a punt that that was the bank holiday on 31/8.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I'll take a punt that that was the bank holiday on 31/8.

That confuses me as the railway is effectively a leisure one right now, and bank holidays are popular with leisure travellers, COVID or no COVID (Bournemouth beach, I'm looking at you.)