can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[Peter Mugridge]

That confuses me as the railway is effectively a leisure one right now, and bank holidays are popular with leisure travellers, COVID or no COVID (Bournemouth beach, I'm looking at you.)

Yes, but there was an awful lot of engineering work going on wasn't there?

 

[Jamesrob637]

Yes, but there was an awful lot of engineering work going on wasn't there?

Can't say sorry! Probably. I didn't take a train between Monday 03/08 and last Wednesday 16/09!

 

[theironroad]

That confuses me as the railway is effectively a leisure one right now, and bank holidays are popular with leisure travellers, COVID or no COVID (Bournemouth beach, I'm looking at you.)

Although leisure is a lot more important, by the end of August a !of of people were back at work on site and using the train to get there. Can't remember the weather tbf but don't think it was a scorcher of a bank holiday weekend to bring the masses of daytrippers in.

For all I know the dip isn't the bh. Without seeing the detailed graph and the recording points it's hard to pinpoint.

Can't say sorry! Probably. I didn't take a train between Monday 03/08 and last Wednesday 16/09!

There we go.... Dip explained. Lol

 

[telstarbox]

I've explained the Bank Holiday volatility earlier in the thread. It's more useful to look at the overall trend than single days.

 

[david1212]

I actually took my first NR journeys yesterday for 6 months. Are all trains like this (apologies for the poor quality of the 2nd photo!) but on the Chiltern 165, of the 10 seats in each bay of 2+2 and 3 + 3, SEVEN were taped off, while on the 168 again a large number were taped off.
View attachment 83835View attachment 83836View attachment 83837

Chiltern & Northern are the only ones who have really done it to this extreme, it's unnecessary really.

Chiltern & Northern do not have any booking / reservation systems. Avanti, Crosscountry, LNER plus long distance GWR have been controlling seat allocation and spacing by requiring pre booking and reserving the right to refuse travel without a booking if a train has reached the allowed capacity. Hence fundamentally the same end result.

From the ' How busy have your trains been? ' thread

Most passengers on this train were in close proximity and were under strict instructions not to move seats. Anyone sat in an aisle seat got told to move. The message is clear: XC do not want customers and prefer to be bankrolled by taxpayers. They are succeeding in their aim and passengers continue to desert them.

Chiltern and CrossCountry are Arriva, Northern was Arriva - co-incidence or group management policy and training ?

Add in Wales when that was Arriva too and you have four franchises that back say 3 years had some of the most overcrowded trains. In each case they put in a proposal with no or minimal fleet expansion. OK part falls to the government for choosing the Arriva proposal but Arriva could have expanded the fleets beyound any franchise commitment to meet increased demand. For Chiltern back in the days of Adrian Shooter he would have explored options.

 

[Class 466]

That confuses me as the railway is effectively a leisure one right now, and bank holidays are popular with leisure travellers, COVID or no COVID (Bournemouth beach, I'm looking at you.)

It's an estimation because the bank holiday was the weekend before last year - therefore it's hard to compare a normal Monday against a BH one. it's outlined in the weekly statistics report.

 

[Eyersey468]

The bus company I work for saw passenger numbers fall by 90% overnight, I believe we are now at about 50% of pre Covid numbers so it is picking up but taking time

 

[rumoto]

I don't know about the accuracy of the leaks obtained by Private Eye, but if this information tweeted by the Labour MP for Slough (and Shadow Rail Minister) is true, the UK railways may be in danger of having a Beeching II situation (severe cuts in services due to a reduction on the passenger numbers during the second wave of the virus):

https://twitter.com/tandhesi/status/1308796667110600706?s=21

 

[squizzler]

The scanned article says: "Even optimistic estimates puts usage at just 60% of 2019 levels by 2022, but a second spike could see numbers fall back to 5% with only key workers using trains."

Firstly: Ridership has recovered from 5% in "lockdown" to over 40% now, so how is a ridership of over 60% in 15 months optimistic?

Secondly: with the railways having recovered from their messaging meltdown in spring and are still in the process of finding the right balance between discouraging overcrowding and accommodating their customers, under what circumstances could travel fall to 5% again? Even a full-fat "lockdown" is unlikely to be obeyed to the same extent as before, and current rail travellers are unlikely to be scared to travel as they were before.

One is reminded of the old saw: 95% of statistics are made up.

 

[Mikey C]

Before lockdown the London commuter network was creaking as it was so overcrowded, indeed one answer has been to have fewer seats and make more people stand.

Thus a slight drop in numbers wouldn't actually be a bad thing. Especially with Crossrail 1 delayed and Crossrail 2 a distant dream

 

[158756]

The scanned article says: "Even optimistic estimates puts usage at just 60% of 2019 levels by 2022, but a second spike could see numbers fall back to 5% with only key workers using trains."

Firstly: Ridership has recovered from 5% in "lockdown" to over 40% now, so how is a ridership of over 60% in 15 months optimistic?

Secondly: with the railways having recovered from their messaging meltdown in spring and are still in the process of finding the right balance between discouraging overcrowding and accommodating their customers, under what circumstances could travel fall to 5% again? Even a full-fat "lockdown" is unlikely to be obeyed to the same extent as before, and current rail travellers are unlikely to be scared to travel as they were before.

One is reminded of the old saw: 95% of statistics are made up.

I don't think it'd go as low as 5% in a second lockdown - but the government seem keener to enforce the restrictions now with fines, so maybe it's possible.

As for the 60% in 2022, maybe it's not optimistic but it definitely sounds possible - it is very possible that commuter and business travel is permanently lost to the railway now. Other traffic will still be depressed in 2022 and for years afterwards by the lasting effects of the economic catastrophe.

The world has changed, and sooner or later the new reality will hit the railways. Lines and service levels you could make a case for before are not viable after a 40 or 60% fall in revenue. In the 5% scenario the continued operation of any service would be a bonus.

 

[yorksrob]

The scanned article says: "Even optimistic estimates puts usage at just 60% of 2019 levels by 2022, but a second spike could see numbers fall back to 5% with only key workers using trains."

Firstly: Ridership has recovered from 5% in "lockdown" to over 40% now, so how is a ridership of over 60% in 15 months optimistic?

Secondly: with the railways having recovered from their messaging meltdown in spring and are still in the process of finding the right balance between discouraging overcrowding and accommodating their customers, under what circumstances could travel fall to 5% again? Even a full-fat "lockdown" is unlikely to be obeyed to the same extent as before, and current rail travellers are unlikely to be scared to travel as they were before.

One is reminded of the old saw: 95% of statistics are made up.

It's very similar to Christian Wolmar's column in Rail a couple of months ago, which would account for the low usage statistic.

You raise a very good point though. We were told not to use the trains in May, it wasn't a choice. There wouldn't be such a drop again unless it's forced on people.

I don't think it'd go as low as 5% in a second lockdown - but the government seem keener to enforce the restrictions now with fines, so maybe it's possible.

As for the 60% in 2022, maybe it's not optimistic but it definitely sounds possible - it is very possible that commuter and business travel is permanently lost to the railway now. Other traffic will still be depressed in 2022 and for years afterwards by the lasting effects of the economic catastrophe.

The world has changed, and sooner or later the new reality will hit the railways. Lines and service levels you could make a case for before are not viable after a 40 or 60% fall in revenue. In the 5% scenario the continued operation of any service would be a bonus.

We ran the same network with half the passengers twenty five years ago. The railway should be made to find other costs to cut, rather than routes.

 

[theironroad]

It's a private eye article and I'm guessing ,regardless of when it was published, it was written a couple of months ago.

I wouldn't be reading too much into it and thinking it's a gospel source.

 

[The Ham]

I don't think it'd go as low as 5% in a second lockdown - but the government seem keener to enforce the restrictions now with fines, so maybe it's possible.

As for the 60% in 2022, maybe it's not optimistic but it definitely sounds possible - it is very possible that commuter and business travel is permanently lost to the railway now. Other traffic will still be depressed in 2022 and for years afterwards by the lasting effects of the economic catastrophe.

The world has changed, and sooner or later the new reality will hit the railways. Lines and service levels you could make a case for before are not viable after a 40 or 60% fall in revenue. In the 5% scenario the continued operation of any service would be a bonus.

If we do see rail use still at 60% in 2022 is likely that the very lines which are being talked about being closed which are the ones which recover their passenger numbers the most.

The lines which will see the biggest drops will be those where they are impacted by those WFH the most, they are going to be those in London and the South East rather than Cornwall or the North East.

Having worked at home (and having a job where it's possible to do so) it's certainly better to be back on the office (and I'm not someone who thrives on lots social interactions).

As such although we're likely to see lots more WFH going forwards I suspect that's going to be a lot of people doing so up to 40% of the time rather than people doing so at least 80% of the time.

That's not to say that there wouldn't be significant numbers doing 80% or more, rather they are likely to be in a minority.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if we saw passenger numbers back to closer to 85% by 2022, with the potential for it to be closer to pre Covid-19 levels than that. As although WFH will impact rail use it will also impact car use and therefore could lead to people switching away from cars for some of their travel.

If there's no vaccine then 60% could be what we're looking at, however that's not going to be even across the country and could be something which was like 30% for London and 80% for everywhere else.

Given that we were at 50% of late then hopefully navy would agree that 60% in 18 months time (especially if there's a vaccine and/or low background numbers of cases) would be a reasonable low estimate but with the potential for it to be higher than that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Before lockdown the London commuter network was creaking as it was so overcrowded, indeed one answer has been to have fewer seats and make more people stand.

Thus a slight drop in numbers wouldn't actually be a bad thing. Especially with Crossrail 1 delayed and Crossrail 2 a distant dream

Same with Northern. With a permanent reduction in loadings back to say late-90s levels, they will have enough stock to end the overcrowding, and they will be able to lop services a bit to make Castlefield punctual again.

It's not all bad.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

It's a private eye article and I'm guessing ,regardless of when it was published, it was written a couple of months ago.

I wouldn't be reading too much into it and thinking it's a gospel source.

It looks to me like it's pretty much been copied from Christian Wolmar's column in Rail from about two months ago?

 

[158756]

We ran the same network with half the passengers twenty five years ago. The railway should be made to find other costs to cut, rather than routes.

We didn't run the same network with the same costs twenty five years ago. I know there's already a thread on this, but how can you turn back the clock on costs? Reverse all the service improvements in that time - that's going to anger a lot of MPs and the unions anyway, and e.g the 12 car Thameslink 700s can't exactly turn into 4 car 319s. Rewind safety and maintenance standards 25 years (pre Ladbroke Grove, Hatfield, Tebay)? No chance. Persuade staff to give back pay rises??? Railways are just more expensive to run nowadays.

 

[yorksrob]

We didn't run the same network with the same costs twenty five years ago. I know there's already a thread on this, but how can you turn back the clock on costs? Reverse all the service improvements in that time - that's going to anger a lot of MPs and the unions anyway, and e.g the 12 car Thameslink 700s can't exactly turn into 4 car 319s. Rewind safety and maintenance standards 25 years (pre Ladbroke Grove, Hatfield, Tebay)? No chance. Persuade staff to give back pay rises??? Railways are just more expensive to run nowadays.

MP's and Unions ? That's nothing to the fury that will be unleashed when they try cutting people's routes and stations.

Trains can be shortened, frequencies can be reduced, the safety systems have already been installed. They will have to find things other than closures.

 

[philosopher]

We didn't run the same network with the same costs twenty five years ago. I know there's already a thread on this, but how can you turn back the clock on costs? Reverse all the service improvements in that time - that's going to anger a lot of MPs and the unions anyway, and e.g the 12 car Thameslink 700s can't exactly turn into 4 car 319s. Rewind safety and maintenance standards 25 years (pre Ladbroke Grove, Hatfield, Tebay)? No chance. Persuade staff to give back pay rises??? Railways are just more expensive to run nowadays.

If there is a long term reduction in rail use, then it seems likely it will mostly be during the peak time due to greater working from home. Therefore to cut costs, could they just not cut the extra peak time services and keep the number of routes and off-peak services broadly the same.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Same with Northern. With a permanent reduction in loadings back to say late-90s levels, they will have enough stock to end the overcrowding, and they will be able to lop services a bit to make Castlefield punctual again.

It's not all bad.

Late-90s passenger loadings but many more services of which nearly all will be booked more than 2-car.

Winner winner chicken dinner.

 

[Pete_uk]

But if there are less services, wont those services be much busier which would increase exposure to the virus?

 

[Bantamzen]

Just sitting here at Shipley waiting for my train back to Baildon after a shopping run, and it is completely dead. A Leeds train has just run off P3, which on an ordinary sunny Saturday would have been very busy but looked almost empty. It actually feels quieter than back at the end of March. Sad to see really, and a little worrying to say the least.

 

[route101]

Just sitting here at Shipley waiting for my train back to Baildon after a shopping run, and it is completely dead. A Leeds train has just run off P3, which on an ordinary sunny Saturday would have been very busy but looked almost empty. It actually feels quieter than back at the end of March. Sad to see really, and a little worrying to say the least.

Yes, was through Edinburgh few days ago. Appears to be getting quieter.

 

[317 forever]

Even at the present time looking forward for leisure journeys, we have recently seen the end of fee-free ticket refunds, yet the government is making noises about taking away even more of our freedoms. Why would anyone take the risk in booking an Advance ticket right now?

If we can buy an Advance ticket, we should be allowed to use it irrespective of local lockdowns unless the government arrange for the TOCs to refund it in full.

 

[Richard Scott]

Notice Newport buses were running two buses around school time to allow all pupils to board. Still means paying two lots of wages and fuel for less than one bus load (this route not massively busy as only sixth form use it). Went into Cardiff on train today and that was lightly loaded. Usually much busier on a Saturday. Cardiff itself, whilst seemed fairly busy, wasn't as busy as it was last time I went around February.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Allowing Rovers to be valid all day on weekdays will help a little. Forgive me if this was already mentioned up thread.

 

[Markdvdman]

Well with Cardiff and Swansea going into lockdown at 6pm today that will KILL leisure travel for the majority of people in Wales. Will it recover? No idea but financially will be crippling!

 

[Horizon22]

The weekends seem considerably busier than the weekdays. Constant reports of overcrowding on regional services around the country. People are travelling because they want to whilst those that needed to, no longer are. If the railway can pivot adequately towards the leisure market - and cut a number of now unnecessary peak trains and reform anytime fares - recovery will be there.

Ultimately though commuting was a huge base and it may never return in the same levels as before. But it really is too early to tell.

 

[Ianno87]

Allowing Rovers to be valid all day on weekdays will help a little. Forgive me if this was already mentioned up thread.

I really doubt that will make any significant impact on the number sold.

 

[squizzler]

Figures from Apple Maps travel enquiry service shows that motoring directions have plateaued over the summer whereas those for transit (sic) had continued growing till about a week ago at time of writing (not easy to be sure as the graph has no vertical lines to denote weeks and months).

Since Autumn, motoring queries have fallen to a level last seen in mid July. Transit has dropped to a level last seen at the start of September.

The website seems to be designed be realtime so I cannot copy it as an image. However the site is easy to use (if a little simplified, as per most of Apple products); forum members are advised to follow the link and see what is happening to travel enquiries in their hometowns.