Central line - shortage of serviceable trains

[Busman]

Does anyone have any idea of when this utter Central line shambles will be over?

It's all very well promoting semi-shiney half-baked refurbished trains for 10 minutes and then putting it back in its cage but the whole line is beyond a joke now.

What the hell is going on?

It amazes me people are more interested in PA system than about the trains doing what they are supposed to do ... run and work.

 

[bluegoblin7]

Years, not months, is the honest answer.

As mentioned, the train that was being demonstrated was still on test, and has now gone back to Ruislip for further modifications.

There are also not insignificant supply chain challenges for both the original and new parts, not helped by the political machinations with TfL over the last few years.

It is far from an ideal situation, but this is the reality of 'managed decline'.

Further timetable-related interventions are being explored, although this will only massage the problem rather than resolve it.

 

[H&I]

Years, not months, is the honest answer.

As mentioned, the train that was being demonstrated was still on test, and has now gone back to Ruislip for further modifications.

There are also not insignificant supply chain challenges for both the original and new parts, not helped by the political machinations with TfL over the last few years.

It is far from an ideal situation, but this is the reality of 'managed decline'.

Further timetable-related interventions are being explored, although this will only massage the problem rather than resolve it.

Will we know when the train will be properly back in service following modifications?

 

[bramling]

Does anyone have any idea of when this utter Central line shambles will be over?

It's all very well promoting semi-shiney half-baked refurbished trains for 10 minutes and then putting it back in its cage but the whole line is beyond a joke now.

What the hell is going on?

Winter probably isn’t helping, especially the recent cold (ish) snap. But the real problem is these trains have been allowed to degenerate to a state where there simply isn’t anything like the level of availability required to deliver the planned service.

My personal view is that TFL/LU have been somewhat asleep-at-the-wheel on this. They have known for many years these trains are problematic, yet dealing with the matter has been left way too late. Covid probably hasn’t helped either.

Who knows what will happen in the longer term. At some point we will see re-engineered trains entering service en-masse. Naturally this should help, and one presumes it will also release a supply of spares to assist with repairing other trains. But the flip side of that coin is the trains will also be getting older. One can also add that any re-engineering project is risky, ISTR the 38 stock had a heavy overhaul programme in their final years which ultimately ended up making such trains less reliable!

It amazes me people are more interested in PA system than about the trains doing what they are supposed to do ... run and work.

One could argue that applies to TFL as well. Delivering a timetable should be LU’s main focus, they have failed to do that here. And the Jubilee Line seems to be going down the same road as well.

 

[xtmw]

From what it looks like, the engineers and various other people are doing their best. The service is just about coping, let's just be thankful there havent been any suspensions or shuttle services due to train cancellations....

Also remember there's been a special timetable since May 2023 due to 'long term cancellations', someone covered this in a way which made me chuckle... https://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2023/06/fewer-trains-longer-gaps.html

From what I understand the 2024 stock will be optimised to work on the existing Central signalling (when introduced), there isn't even funding available for the Picc resignalling, let alone the Central!

There have been problems with the trains for years, but TfL have been saying there are 'higher failures then usual', it just seems like poor timing to me... We can only hope a solution is found and the service dosen't get worse then it already is....

 

[bluegoblin7]

Part of the challenge is that spares mitigation for the unrefurbished fleet was to come from those going through CLIP, particularly traction motors.

Unfortunately the delays to the project have meant that the first trains to go have been some of the worst performing, thereby not releasing ‘good’ spares back into the pool. The plan was to have seen a mix of good and bad units under the original forecasts, but obviously things have now moved on significantly.

The Central line is far from the only LU line facing chronic spares shortages at the moment - it’s just unfortunate in perhaps being the most obvious, at the moment.

 

[thomalex]

I think one thing that would be useful is more communication around the refurbishment programme. Rather than having issues saying shortage of trains, it should be due to the refurbishment programme, there should be posters in stations saying how long disruption is expected to last, recommendations to take other routes in possible, a website outlining what work is being carried out etc.

As it stands you just see 'DELAYS - shortage of trains' on a daily basis with zero information on why or when it may improve. As others have stated above this is the worst period with no refurbished stock yet released onto the network and operating with a reduced number of unrefurbished stock which are proving problematic, and on top of that a shortage of spare parts to keep them going. You would expect TfL can make an educated guess as to when base reliability should improve with a number of refurbished stock released onto the network.

 

[xtmw]

The problem is the train motors, there has been an unusually high amount of 'flashovers' which TfL have communicated through posters at Central line stations and through emails.

It's been advised that engineers are doing all they can, and customers should use the Elizabeth line where possible. The posters mention no timeframe but they are working 'as quickly as possible' to remedy the problem

The 92s are struggling....

 

[bramling]

I think one thing that would be useful is more communication around the refurbishment programme. Rather than having issues saying shortage of trains, it should be due to the refurbishment programme, there should be posters in stations saying how long disruption is expected to last, recommendations to take other routes in possible, a website outlining what work is being carried out etc.

As it stands you just see 'DELAYS - shortage of trains' on a daily basis with zero information on why or when it may improve. As others have stated above this is the worst period with no refurbished stock yet released onto the network and operating with a reduced number of unrefurbished stock which are proving problematic, and on top of that a shortage of spare parts to keep them going. You would expect TfL can make an educated guess as to when base reliability should improve with a number of refurbished stock released onto the network.

I suspect the problem with that is TFL won’t want to admit in public that this may well go on for a period measurable in years.

That said, autumn followed by the recent colder weather probably hasn’t helped. Central Line users are probably fortunate there hasn’t been any significant snowfall so far this winter, as that would have likely crucified the fleet even further.

 

[xtmw]

I suspect the problem with that is TFL won’t want to admit in public that this may well go on for a period measurable in years.

That said, autumn followed by the recent colder weather probably hasn’t helped. Central Line users are probably fortunate there hasn’t been any significant snowfall so far this winter, as that would have likely crucified the fleet even further.

Agreed - although they have acknowledged their is something wrong with the fleet it hasn't been handled the best way....

We all know the fleet has been struggling for some time, but it hasn't been this bad in a long time. As a Central Line user, I'm just thankful their haven't been service suspensions due to train cancellations. The situation might get better in spring, but in summer the heat plays havoc with everything !

As said before, the original plan was to get the refurbished trains in, use the 'good' motors from there, but with the project delayed, there's now a shortage of motors....

 

[JJmoogle]

My personal view is that TFL/LU have been somewhat asleep-at-the-wheel on this. They have known for many years these trains are problematic, yet dealing with the matter has been left way too late. Covid probably hasn’t helped either.

Wasn't the orginal plan going back nearly a decade now to have them replaced with the 2024 stock in a huge multi-line order in much the same way all the SSL got S-Stock.

I agree Covid really won't have helped but I imagine it's a little bit like rock and hard place when it was known years ago they where clapped out and needed replacing.

 

[trebor79]

As said before, the original plan was to get the refurbished trains in, use the 'good' motors from there, but with the project delayed, there's now a shortage of motors....

Don't quite understand how that can be. A failed motor can be rewound, there's any number of places that can do that sort of work.
We had some absolutely ancient DC motors (and 3.3kV AC for that matter) at a factory I worked at. Every so often one would flashover and be sent away for a rewind. No big deal. OEM was long since out of business.

 

[bluegoblin7]

Don't quite understand how that can be.

Two words: managed decline.

 

[bramling]

Two words: managed decline.

I can’t help but get the feeling there’s also been an element of “asleep at the wheel” from TFL on this.

The issues with these trains have been going on for very many years, yet it’s taken decades to get round to actually doing something. I sense the can has been kicked well and truly down the road.

One wonders if a few years from now the Jubilee is going to be in a similar state, as their trains seem to be starting to be regarded as a problem.

 

[JJmoogle]

How have they been asleep at the wheel if they kept asking repeatedly, for the cash to do stock replacement, it's only now we get to the point where they're so broken they have to (imo) distuptively bodge what they already have as a sticking plaster.

 

[Busman]

I see the LU management have done something semi-useful for once. Now that the 'reduced to one train' Hainault shuttle has now been implemented, the driver (I'm assuming from the missing second train) now sits in the opposite cab so when the train heads into the sidings at Woodford, there is a quicker turnaround time pulling it back out again on its return trip to Hainault. It's good to see some brains are functioning at TfL, it's probably not much comfort for those now waiting around half hour or longer (if you've missed the connection) at Hainault or Woodford though in the freezing cold.

We can only be thankful that the Elizabeth line is taking 'some' pressures away in the central section otherwise the Central would have seriously buckled, a 7-8 minute gap between trains in rush hour in the central section is nothing short of a disgrace.

 

[trebor79]

Two words: managed decline.

We're talking a motor rewind though. It's an order of magnitude different from replacing a signalling system or worn out trackwork.

 

[bluegoblin7]

I don’t think a lot of people realise just how much routine and preventative maintenance has been cut back - it isn’t the sort of thing that gets immediately noticed but can become immensely disruptive.

Stocks of spares have been depleted, departments closed and now there is an element of playing catch up rather than having a steady flow and a full stores. LU relies on a LOT of cottage industries and many of these have also been disrupted by the effects of managed decline.

@bramling is correct, imo, in their belief that TfL have been somewhat asleep at the wheel, but this is also exactly what many expected would happen when managed decline began. Commentators in may places were postulating about the Bakerloo line being suspended - the reality is that the cuts were happening in ways with a less immediate visibility.

You can’t have a reliable, affordable public transport network that isn’t funded appropriately. Without repeating the same statements over and again, there is a ready every other major urban transit network of comparable size to London has centralised funding, and there’s a reason that TfL (and previous incarnations) was often the model standard to follow. There’s a lot of great stuff to come out of the set-up of TfL, but it’s become more and more of a political organisation over the last two decades, with political meddling from politicians of all colours.

If the experienced transport managers were allowed to do what they do best and get on with the job, it wouldn’t be in the state it is.

 

[RingArm]

I suspect that the problem lies with what is approved and what is not. A skilled coil winder might well rewind a motor, or test it and make a repair, and in fact the article may be better than the original. But if it's not "approved" we couldn't use it.

 

[trebor79]

I suspect that the problem lies with what is approved and what is not. A skilled coil winder might well rewind a motor, or test it and make a repair, and in fact the article may be better than the original. But if it's not "approved" we couldn't use it.

Well indeed, in that case get some competent suppliers onto the approval process.
As it happen I got an email from tfl today, as I suppose many others did. Basically apologising for the poor service on the Central line and saying it was down to an unusually high number of motor failures. Further stated a batch of refurbished motor parts has been delivered, but that high failure rate continues and hence poor service will continue.

 

[Zeremony]

Tfl says it has introduced an amended timetable for the next few weeks on the Central line due to a shortage of trains. Motors on the trains are failing. Replacement have been purchased and are being placed but the underlying problem is the trains are over 30 years old.

from Twitter @BBCTomEdwards

 

[RingArm]

Something needs to be done because 7 to 9 minute intervals in the service simply will not do.

 

[bluegoblin7]

Something needs to be done because 7 to 9 minute intervals in the service simply will not do.

The only remaining option would be to move to an entirely emergency timetable, with shuttle services to branches and - most likely - temporary cessation of service to some areas.

Personally I’d take the 7-9 minute gaps.

 

[trebor79]

Does every motor have to be operable/present on the train for it to run? Could broken motors be disconnected mechanically and electrically and the train run in service until such time as the replacement is ready or there is space in the workshop?

 

[Nym]

You can just shunt the 2 car unit out of the formation and use the fact they're irritatingly short units to their advantage.

But it's not the lack of depot space or willing, its simply a lack of spares. And given "what it's like" to be a TfL supplier, and what it's like to be a TfL procurer (engineer or commercial manager), this situation is not likely to change any time soon, especially now the financial pressures of TfL are actually apparent.

 

[bramling]

from Twitter @BBCTomEdwards

Whatever the issue, the underlying cause is *not* that the trains are 30 years old. It is not normal in terms of railway rolling stock for motors to suddenly give up the ghost at age 30. In any case this problem has been going on for many years, just that it has become more and more of an issue over time.

The underlying issue is that these motors simply either weren’t fit for purpose from the outset, or at any rate weren’t fit for the duty cycle they have been subjected to (remembering that LU trains tend to work harder these days compared to when the 92 stock was specified - more trains especially off-peak, more trains on Sundays, night tube, etc). And for their part, rightly or wrongly, TFL has failed to address this underlying problem until the CLIP project, which is essentially too late.

We can probably partly blame short-term political cycles for this. Replacing traction motors isn’t sexy from a political point of view, and there’s been constant indecision about whether/when the Central Line fleet might be replaced. For their part, TFL don’t seem to have flagged this up as an issue as much as they might have done. Again a long-term problem which doesn’t fit into political cycles, nor LU senior management cycles which seems to have an ever-decreasing shelf life and an ever-increasing constant turnaround, with people not seeming to stay long at LU/TFL. Has anyone, for example, ever heard a Commissioner talk about this issue? (genuine question, I know I haven’t).

I can’t help but get the feeling the Jubilee Line is going to be the same in a few years time. That fleet seems to be running into problems as well, albeit nothing like as bad.

 

[trebor79]

You can just shunt the 2 car unit out of the formation and use the fact they're irritatingly short units to their advantage.

But it's not the lack of depot space or willing, its simply a lack of spares. And given "what it's like" to be a TfL supplier, and what it's like to be a TfL procurer (engineer or commercial manager), this situation is not likely to change any time soon, especially now the financial pressures of TfL are actually apparent.

Oh I wasn't suggesting it was a lack of willing. But a bit of lateral thinking might help ease things. If there are units parked up with a motor failure, what would be the impact of running it in service? How many motors could be isolated on a full set before it caused a performance issue?

 

[bramling]

Oh I wasn't suggesting it was a lack of willing. But a bit of lateral thinking might help ease things. If there are units parked up with a motor failure, what would be the impact of running it in service? How many motors could be isolated on a full set before it caused a performance issue?

You could run with a car’s worth out in terms of traction before it would have a really noticeable effect on performance. One does wonder if this would place extra stress on the remainder, though.

 

[Nym]

Oh I wasn't suggesting it was a lack of willing. But a bit of lateral thinking might help ease things. If there are units parked up with a motor failure, what would be the impact of running it in service? How many motors could be isolated on a full set before it caused a performance issue?

So now you'd like the COO Operational engineers to change the DISI and depot dispatch instructions, where something might fail out on the railway.

Not to go too far into this rant, but someone very irritating about the 'big railway' attitude is that stopped is safe, this is not the case on LUL in deep level tunnels, and if you have failed motors on a unit, on 1992TS I beleive you're isolating a whole bogie or potentially even a whole unit, which is a significant hit to the performance and will make the other motors work harder, and therefore, fail sooner, increasing the likelyhood of an in service failure.

Combine this with the lack of LUL controllers nowerdays to take positive actions (likely due to the joys of oversight by comittee after the sight saying, "well if you'd have done this", when compared by those who are not operational, but like to think they'd know better, hence resulting in a decision paralysis due to fear of issues later).

And now you have increased the risk of stalled trains, this is not an acceptable hazard to the operational railway, so no sensible engineer, and I'm sure there are still some left in TfL after the multiple re-orgs that pushed out so many good people...
... it's not a good idea, and anyone who signs it off does not have the interest of the railway or the safety case in mind.
A change of the maintenance requirement needs to be analysed under the TfL Pathway and CSM-RA safety assessment and against LU Standards S1037 and S1180 for the change, it's unlikely that any change would be able to be done by the very short staffed engineering teams, even if they were willing. It would be much better trying to focus efforts on being a better company to work for, and a better company to work with as part of the supply chain.

 

[Roast Veg]

You can just shunt the 2 car unit out of the formation and use the fact they're irritatingly short units to their advantage.

You can't run short sets away from the loop right now - there are no stop boards for short sets.