Could/should HS2 Eastern leg be shelved?

[edwin_m]

It seems worthwhile to me to build HS2 as far north as Crewe, and as you state, this is happening. However, beyond Crewe train services diverge in several different directions, so potential line usage (and thus the economic case) would be less.

The double track from Crewe to Cheadle Hulme is close to capacity due to the mix of fast and slow trains and freight, and it's well known that the section through Stockport and Slade Lane is equally busy. It will be difficult to timetable HS2 trains as well and it's certainly not a long term solution.

 

[TheGrew]

Where would you put Buxton and Glossop?

I see your point, technically both are within Derbyshire which would be considered a Midlands county despite being further north than Crewe.
This is the issue with defining it by county boundaries. From a (modern) transport perspective neither Buxton nor Glossop have direct rail connections to Derby but do to Manchester which is arguably the capital of the North West.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

I see your point, technically both are within Derbyshire which would be considered a Midlands county despite being further north than Crewe.
This is the issue with defining it by county boundaries. From a (modern) transport perspective neither Buxton nor Glossop have direct rail connections to Derby but do to Manchester which is arguably the capital of the North West.

The whole High Peak area is officially in the Midlands but is sandwiched between Manchester and Sheffield/South Yorkshire and is effectively in the North.

 

[Watershed]

The double track from Crewe to Cheadle Hulme is close to capacity due to the mix of fast and slow trains and freight, and it's well known that the section through Stockport and Slade Lane is equally busy. It will be difficult to timetable HS2 trains as well and it's certainly not a long term solution.

There will be a period of a few years where HS2 trains will need to be timetabled over the 'classic' line between Crewe and Manchester, before phase 2b is completed.

Presumably the current Manchester-Euston via Crewe service will be rerouted onto HS2, possibly together with one of the via Stoke services (either by sending it via Crewe or via the Handsacre chord). But that period will definitely be 'quart in a pint pot' territory.

 

[AM9]

With 2a already approved, 2b West is only a small add on and is far more progressed in planning terms. The 2b east is a victim of replanning to avoid Sheffield /Meadowhall and far less defined hence it would be delivered far later. Realistically the government want HS2 spend not to exceed 5-6bn a year hence accelerating the Western side tends to push the eastern back in cash flow terms.

I wonder if the air of uncertainty that seems to have been floated from the Government side is part of a long-term plan to put it on ice and drop the Sheffield loop if the plan is rebooted.

 

[alf]

It’s been nearly thirty years since he fulfilled either of those roles. A lot has happened since.

It’s true Simon Jenkins was a long serving British Rail Board member nearly thirty years ago, but it is obvious he closely follows railway news.

The passage of time hasn’t stopped the railway privatiser ex PM John Major or long time ago PMs Tony Blair & Gordon Brown from frequently commenting on current politics & being taken seriously by some.

Simon Jenkins has been a friend of the railway since he first lifted a pen. I listen to what he says. He certainly used to have superb contacts.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Simon Jenkins has been a friend of the railway since he first lifted a pen. I listen to what he says. He certainly used to have superb contacts.

I don't think he's an expert on major rail project delivery though.
He will be close to the political sense, and very well knows the planning processes needed to get projects authorised.
It's the political pressure on the Chancellor which is they key to this, plus a widening north-south rift over government planning policy.
That's before anything meaningful has been delivered to the "red wall" areas.

 

[mister-sparky]

Why is most of this thread about debating whether Crewe is in the Midlands or north west….

 

[jfisher21]

With public finances as they are, I would take London - Crewe in 60 minutes, existing tracks to make Manchester / Liverpool in 90 for now. See how the economy and travel recovers in a few years.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Why is most of this thread about debating whether Crewe is in the Midlands or north west….

Because it matters in the "levelling up the north" debate, if HS2 finishes at Crewe.
And because it's a genuinely interesting subject at least 1200 years old, since Cheshire (or the area that Cheshire now occupies) was in Mercia and not Northumbria.
There is of course a more modern debate as to whether Warrington and Widnes should be in "Cheshire"...

 

[BrianW]

Why is most of this thread about debating whether Crewe is in the Midlands or north west….

With public finances as they are, I would take London - Crewe in 60 minutes, existing tracks to make Manchester / Liverpool in 90 for now. See how the economy and travel recovers in a few years.

Because it matters in the "levelling up the north" debate, if HS2 finishes at Crewe.
And because it's a genuinely interesting subject at least 1200 years old, since Cheshire (or the area that Cheshire now occupies) was in Mercia and not Northumbria.
There is of course a more modern debate as to whether Warrington and Widnes should be in "Cheshire"...

It's about appearances aka spin. The government will wish to show it has done this or that for 'the north' and connectivity, and along the way to also be presented as getting back to 'sound public finances', with borrowing coming 'back under control'. So more to be announced about Manchester- Leeds I imagine, every 10 minutes in under x minutes?

In passing I'm surprised (but only a bit) not to see more promotion of Crewe and Doncaster as 'up-and-coming', with 5 trains an hour to London in x minutes ... Spin??

 

[Robertj21a]

It’s true Simon Jenkins was a long serving British Rail Board member nearly thirty years ago, but it is obvious he closely follows railway news.

The passage of time hasn’t stopped the railway privatiser ex PM John Major or long time ago PMs Tony Blair & Gordon Brown from frequently commenting on current politics & being taken seriously by some.

Simon Jenkins has been a friend of the railway since he first lifted a pen. I listen to what he says. He certainly used to have superb contacts.

I wasn't aware that anybody took Tony Blair and Gordon Brown seriously.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I wasn't aware that anybody took Tony Blair and Gordon Brown seriously.

No, they only gave us high growth and sound money...and promoted HS2.

 

[JonathanH]

With public finances as they are, I would take London - Crewe in 60 minutes, existing tracks to make Manchester / Liverpool in 90 for now. See how the economy and travel recovers in a few years.

That doesn't help provide more local services though - indeed it could even make things worse because services need to be accommodated on the classic lines into Manchester and Liverpool from both HS2 and the existing WCML route.

 

[Failed Unit]

If HS2 is dead in the water then 3tph to Newcastle is not so daft.

i wonder what (if any changes) will be made on the ECML to keep it going. Sorting out digswell is a big must. Start doing this and you soon start thinking is HS2 east the better option.

maybe with the digital railway 3tph to Leeds could happen. But Leeds won’t be happy it’s end to end time is much worse than Manchester.

 

[snowball]

I wonder if the air of uncertainty that seems to have been floated from the Government side is part of a long-term plan to put it on ice and drop the Sheffield loop if the plan is rebooted.

The govt is clearly having doubts about the eastern arm and may either drop or delay either all of the eastern arm, or the northern part of it. The eastern arm is a huge expense - longer than the combined length of phase 2a and the western part of phase 2b.

But if by "drop the Sheffield loop" you mean "build the eastern arm on the presently proposed route via Mexborough to Leeds and Church Fenton but drop the connection to Sheffield", that would be an amazingly stpuid thing to do. The amount of new build route saved would be a mere three or four miles near Alfreton, and you would lose the ability to serve one of the biggest cities in England.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I wonder if the air of uncertainty that seems to have been floated from the Government side is part of a long-term plan to put it on ice and drop the Sheffield loop if the plan is rebooted.

HS2 could help itself by updating the TBM progress on the Chiltern tunnels, demonstrating that it is a "going concern".
Currently it's still stuck on the initial July 9 figures.

 

[HSTEd]

The govt is clearly having doubts about the eastern arm and may either drop or delay either all of the eastern arm, or the northern part of it. The eastern arm is a huge expense - longer than the combined length of phase 2a and the western part of phase 2b.

But if by "drop the Sheffield loop" you mean "build the eastern arm on the presently proposed route via Mexborough to Leeds and Church Fenton but drop the connection to Sheffield", that would be an amazingly stpuid thing to do. The amount of new build route saved would be a mere three or four miles near Alfreton, and you would lose the ability to serve one of the biggest cities in England.

Well you could make a case for dropping everything north of Sutton in Ashfield, NPR will relieve the ECML without it and there will be little traffic necessarily on the Sheffield bypass.

 

[snowball]

Well you could make a case for dropping everything north of Sutton in Ashfield, NPR will relieve the ECML without it and there will be little traffic necessarily on the Sheffield bypass.

The main current threat seems to be that they may drop everything north of East Midlands Parkway.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

If HS2 is dead in the water then 3tph to Newcastle is not so daft.

i wonder what (if any changes) will be made on the ECML to keep it going. Sorting out digswell is a big must. Start doing this and you soon start thinking is HS2 east the better option.

maybe with the digital railway 3tph to Leeds could happen. But Leeds won’t be happy it’s end to end time is much worse than Manchester.

Might change the current Transport Secretay's mind on HS2 Eastern arm if a second viaduct and tunnels are needed. I presume a flyover at Newark would be necessary as well.

 

[edwin_m]

If HS2 is dead in the water then 3tph to Newcastle is not so daft.

i wonder what (if any changes) will be made on the ECML to keep it going. Sorting out digswell is a big must. Start doing this and you soon start thinking is HS2 east the better option.

maybe with the digital railway 3tph to Leeds could happen. But Leeds won’t be happy it’s end to end time is much worse than Manchester.

Newcastle gets 3TPH (from London) in May 2022. I assume the Kings Cross and Werrington works make this possible.

The slowest part of the London-Leeds run is north of Doncaster. Perhaps the northern part of the eastern leg could be re-focused to provide a Leeds-Doncaster high-speed route, perhaps avoiding Doncaster to increase capacity, and also to provide faster journeys for NPR and XC between Leeds and Sheffield? The section between the Sheffield area and somewhere around East Midlands Parkway is relatively less important.

 

[Failed Unit]

Newcastle gets 3TPH (from London) in May 2022. I assume the Kings Cross and Werrington works make this possible.

The slowest part of the London-Leeds run is north of Doncaster. Perhaps the northern part of the eastern leg could be re-focused to provide a Leeds-Doncaster high-speed route, perhaps avoiding Doncaster to increase capacity, and also to provide faster journeys for NPR and XC between Leeds and Sheffield? The section between the Sheffield area and somewhere around East Midlands Parkway is relatively less important.

It does, but Leeds is still at 2tph so if it gets scraped something needs to be done. New alignment from ECML with Grade separation makes sense.

The MML would also need improvements unless the did London - Nottingham via Grantham and London - Sheffield via Doncaster. But that will of course be 0 benefit to Leicester and Derby.

it is a mess

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Might change the current Transport Secretay's mind on HS2 Eastern arm if a second viaduct and tunnels are needed. I presume a flyover at Newark would be necessary as well.

A second viaduct will take as long to deliver as HS2 Eastern Arm don't underestimate how much opposition would be mounted against it also with ETCS coming that will provide a little bit extra on capacity to keep things going for a few years yet.

 

[edwin_m]

It does, but Leeds is still at 2tph so if it gets scraped something needs to be done. New alignment from ECML with Grade separation makes sense.

The MML would also need improvements unless the did London - Nottingham via Grantham and London - Sheffield via Doncaster. But that will of course be 0 benefit to Leicester and Derby.

it is a mess

The same Modern Railways article on the LNER timetable says 3TPH to Leeds is an aspiration for mid-2020s.

If the middle part of the eastern leg was dropped, then London-Nottingham and London-Sheffield (via Derby) could use the southern part and transfer onto MML in the Trent area, using some paths out of Euston that wouldn't be used for Leeds or the North East as those would stay on an enhanced ECML. I don't think there's any merit in serving Nottingham or Sheffield via the ECML, especially if it remains the prime route for the destinations it serves today.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

A second viaduct will take as long to deliver as HS2 Eastern Arm don't underestimate how much opposition would be mounted against it also with ETCS coming that will provide a little bit extra on capacity to keep things going for a few years yet.

Indeed, just observing who the current MP for Welwyn is and how much it would affect his constituency.

Welwyn Hatfield (UK Parliament constituency) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Will the Guardian give HS2 chance to respond on that article?
It is ludicrously inaccurate in its facts!
Its also extre disingenuous to compare the whole cost against hospitals etc. Compare the non-financial part of the cost sure, but HS2 will be bringing in a return on that spending, unlike a hospital.

Hospitals do bring in a huge financial return, they reduce sick days, stop workforces from dying early etc.
Anyway, what would you suggest HS2 would be fairly compared against?

 

[SuperNova]

Anyway, what would you suggest HS2 would be fairly compared against?

The railway built in the 19th century given it's still used by today's services?

 

[Envy123]

It would be a massive disappointment if Leeds HS2 would be shelved. It's not just about London to Leeds journeys, but Birmingham to Leeds as well. Maybe the ECML could be fiddled with, to speed up the Leeds journeys, but I am unsure about the XC routes.

I hope to take advantage of HS2 for commuting purposes - I still need to travel to London and would need to travel 5 days a week in the future, but I would feel more at home in somewhere like Birmingham rather than the traditional commuter towns and cities. But London is way out of my reach.

 

[hwl]

One of the core issues with the current public proposal for the eastern arm of 2B is that the proposal is a bit of a mess after the rerouting of the main axis away from (Sheffield) / Meadowhall which doesn't align with some of NPR aims of improving Sheffield to other Northern city and large town journey times.
In my view they need to be dusting off the Meadowhall/Tinsley proposal (that was viewed as too expensive and geologically risky a the time of a previous cost cutting) as you then have far better alignment between HS2 and NRP for journeys involving the Sheffield region with the HS2 trains then able to fulfil the NPR role too - a major cost saving operationally.
As soon as Sheffield connectivity with NPR becomes important the original HS2 proposal look far more useful.

 

[mike57]

I suspect that as others have said the state of public finances means that whatever anyone says the Eastern leg will be 'postponed'. Although passenger numbers are increasing income is still down, so the difference between income and spending will be greater and this is a drain on immediate funds. The word shelved may not be used, but no government is going to start this work. I suspect the public finances will streched enough finishing the London - Brum - Crewe section. Its not even about politics, its about economic reality, the funds are not there.