Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[Class 33]

Rishi Sunak's comments the other week(Friday 25th Sept I think it was) didn't go down too well with me, and I expect many many others too. He said "These restrictions will remain for AT LEAST the next 6 months. And we have to get used to the new normal.". Why exactly did he say these restrictions will remain for AT LEAST the next 6 months? What if we can get this second spike defeated in about 3 to 4 months time, can these restrictions finally be lifted then? Or do we still have to put up with them up until at least the end of March? Also many people are sick and tired of this "new normal" nonsense, and want the "old normal" back again. We can't go on with this "new normal" nonsense for too much longer.

 

[brad465]

Rishi Sunak's comments the other week(Friday 25th Sept I think it was) didn't go down too well with me, and I expect many many others too. He said "These restrictions will remain for AT LEAST the next 6 months. And we have to get used to the new normal.". Why exactly did he say these restrictions will remain for AT LEAST the next 6 months? What if we can get this second spike defeated in about 3 to 4 months time, can these restrictions finally be lifted then? Or do we still have to put up with them up until at least the end of March? Also many people are sick and tired of this "new normal" nonsense, and want the "old normal" back again. We can't go on with this "new normal" nonsense for too much longer.

New normal in the sense of learning lessons on climate change and change in lifestyle practices to work better for the environment and/or save money is something to pursue, however I agree it must not include loss of civil liberties, etc.

 

[takno]

New normal in the sense of learning lessons on climate change and change in lifestyle practices to work better for the environment and/or save money is something to pursue, however I agree it must not include loss of civil liberties, etc.

As far as I can see from an environmental pov the new normal mostly involves lots of extra short car journeys, public transport running empty, open windows and large amounts of extra heating and air-con running. We're going to need a hell of a reset to even get back to old-normal levels of pollution.

 

[Kingspanner]

Nonsense.

"A study from the University of Liverpool has found that NO2 levels were cut by half due to drastically decreased traffic on the roads while levels of sulphur dioxide increased by over 100 per cent".

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/ar...ockdown-saw-unexpected-rise-in-air-pollutant/
So a mixed bag.

Perhaps more importantly this from Nature Climate Change https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x has a title which speaks for itself

Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

 

[greyman42]

Rishi Sunak's comments the other week(Friday 25th Sept I think it was) didn't go down too well with me, and I expect many many others too. He said "These restrictions will remain for AT LEAST the next 6 months. And we have to get used to the new normal.". Why exactly did he say these restrictions will remain for AT LEAST the next 6 months? What if we can get this second spike defeated in about 3 to 4 months time, can these restrictions finally be lifted then? Or do we still have to put up with them up until at least the end of March? Also many people are sick and tired of this "new normal" nonsense, and want the "old normal" back again. We can't go on with this "new normal" nonsense for too much longer.

I was referring to his particular comment regarding not being afraid of the virus. Regarding the rest of it, I completely agree with you.

 

[Richard Scott]

Nonsense. "A study from the University of Liverpool has found that NO2 levels were cut by half due to drastically decreased traffic on the roads while levels of sulphur dioxide increased by over 100 per cent". https://eandt.theiet.org/content/ar...ockdown-saw-unexpected-rise-in-air-pollutant/
So a mixed bag.

Perhaps more importantly this from Nature Climate Change https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x has a title which speaks for itself
Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement

That happened during lockdown not since people have been encouraged to go back to work and can move more freely again.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

What if we can get this second spike defeated in about 3 to 4 months time, can these restrictions finally be lifted then?

Johnson did hint at that in his Marr interview, although it came across as typically clumsy. He was saying about it being "bumpy until at least Christmas" and a few similar comments, but of course he didn't dare say anything specific either way.

 

[Richard Scott]

Johnson did hint at that in his Marr interview, although it came across as typically clumsy. He was saying about it being "bumpy until at least Christmas" and a few similar comments, but of course he didn't dare say anything specific either way.

I'd love to know how he can make these predictions, what does he know that we don't? Based on his previous predictions I'd say not much.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I hope this doesn't give Boris et al. ideas:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1312846036709277697?s=20

Paris is about to go into 15 day “circuit break” type temporary shutdown

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1312847314961281024?s=20

Ireland likely to go to much stricter lockdown, with only essential retail open. Decision tomorrow

(not sure if there's a more appropriate thread for this)

####################

22,961 new cases reported today UK-wide (which will likely turn some heads, yes I'm looking at you Sky), however that includes 15,841 with specimen dates between 25/09 and 02/10 so artificially high.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

22,961 today... they are, of course, still catching up from the issue that has been identified which resulted in under-reporting for a week and is nothing to panic over.

 

[big_rig]

They should take a break from reporting these figures until they stop being nonsense, and even then I don’t see the need to report them daily anyway.

Also note Nicola Sturgeon has already retweeted the news about Ireland/Paris with glee.

 

[BackOnTheTrain]

Even with the extra cases discounted it still averages at 9k for yesterday and today, which is a significant jump from the 7k on Friday.

 

[Scotrail12]

Also note Nicola Sturgeon has already retweeted the news about Ireland/Paris with glee.

Of course she has. The replies to her Twitter comments are hardly in her favour though so that's making me think that a circuit breaker is futile. I wonder how many will abide to it. I certainly won't be - she can shove her 5 mile and essential travel only on transport rule where the sun don't shine.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Even with the extra cases discounted it still averages at 9k for yesterday and today, which is a significant jump from the 7k on Friday.

It's a worrying rise, but it does seem like most of the increase is driven by students (there are some particularly massive increases in Nottingham and Exeter). The massive question is whether this leads to more infections in the wider community - if it doesn't then the rise is unlikely to be much to worry about, but if it does then that's a real concern.

 

[Bikeman78]

she can shove her 5 mile and essential travel only on transport rule where the sun don't shine.

Well that's anywhere in Wales recently Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[tommy2215]

It would be good to know how many of these 22k extra 'cases' are asymptomatic.

 

[45107]

I hope this doesn't give Boris et al. ideas:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1312846036709277697?s=20


https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1312847314961281024?s=20


(not sure if there's a more appropriate thread for this)

####################

22,961 new cases reported today UK-wide (which will likely turn some heads, yes I'm looking at you Sky), however that includes 15,841 with specimen dates between 25/09 and 02/10 so artificially high.

Which, by my calculation is 7,120 new cases and 15,841 spread over 8 days which AVERAGES out at 1,980 extra cases per day over that period, which boosts the 7 day average a little bit over that time span.

 

[bramling]

I'd love to know how he can make these predictions, what does he know that we don't? Based on his previous predictions I'd say not much.

He’s just picked a date at random, like he’s done before. He probably knows Christmas forms a natural break point for many.

Completely meaningless.

 

[Crossover]

It would be good to know how many of these 22k extra 'cases' are asymptomatic.

Agreed. I was just thinking (having only just seen the news - I’ve been out all day trying to get away from all of it a bit!) that if the positives have increased ‘so much’ then it puts the hospitalisations at an even lower percentage than they already were

 

[adc82140]

I'd be quite happy to see figures this high, because it would prove we had an efficient testing system, and yes, it would prove that the percentage of people who become seriously unwell is tiny. It would be nice if the lab test positives and the ONS estimates matched.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

22,961 today... they are, of course, still catching up from the issue that has been identified which resulted in under-reporting for a week and is nothing to panic over.

To me, as a numbers person, it is an unforgiveable mistake.
Everybody is watching the daily trends anxiously as an indication of the progress of the second spike, and it will affect emergency planning locally.
The least they can do is get the numbers right.
Why should we believe any numbers coming out of PHE, and the decisions based on those numbers?
The numbers are not just a few percent out, which is understandable and readily absorbed by the weekly flow, they are 50% or more out on a daily basis.
You'd think someone would spot the mismatch before publication.

Then there's the media issue of why they are devoting all their time to Trump, with low coverage of the numbers blip this weekend.

I still haven't forgotten the way two Welsh health boards "forgot" to report their deaths to PHW over the first month, giving an entirely false view of the infection severity.

 

[kristiang85]

Case numbers are meaningless now. The government and media need to concentrate on hospitalisations and deaths. Although obviously they won't, because that doesn't fit the FEAR narrative - the hospitalisations and deaths are rising, but very slowly and definitely not in any kind of pattern that shows the dreaded second wave.

They could also show these against other respiratory deaths (flu/pneumonia), and indeed against the same trends in previous years, to help alleviate worry in the population. But of course, that is not the narrative.

 

[bramling]

To me, as a numbers person, it is an unforgiveable mistake.
Everybody is watching the daily trends anxiously as an indication of the progress of the second spike, and it will affect emergency planning locally.
The least they can do is get the numbers right.
Why should we believe any numbers coming out of PHE, and the decisions based on those numbers?
The numbers are not just a few percent out, which is understandable and readily absorbed by the weekly flow, they are 50% or more out on a daily basis.
You'd think someone would spot the mismatch before publication.

Then there's the media issue of why they are devoting all their time to Trump, with low coverage of the numbers blip this weekend.

I still haven't forgotten the way two Welsh health boards "forgot" to report their deaths to PHW over the first month, giving an entirely false view of the infection severity.

I agree it’s ridiculous. We have hours of television time spent “analysing” these figures, which then turn out to be utterly meaningless. Worse if political decisions are being made off the back of them.

What a shambles - and all the more shambolic as we’re now quite a long way in to all this. It would have been excusable back in March, but it’s not now.

 

[Domh245]

I agree it’s ridiculous. We have hours of television time spent “analysing” these figures, which then turn out to be utterly meaningless. Worse if political decisions are being made off the back of them.

It's only an issue if people focus solely on the number of positive tests rather than the host of other information including the various prevalence studies. I suspect it's the desire for "news now" rather than accurate news that forces this 'analysis', but that's something for the media thread!

 

[duncanp]

They should take a break from reporting these figures until they stop being nonsense, and even then I don’t see the need to report them daily anyway.

Also note Nicola Sturgeon has already retweeted the news about Ireland/Paris with glee.

Well it will be interesting to see what happens in Paris (and Marseille, which has had its' bars closed for two weeks)

If the figures don't come down as the authorities hope, will the extend the "circuit breaker" by another two weeks, and then by another two weeks........., and you can bet that Nicola Sturgeon will keep quiet about the effectiveness of this type of "lockdown".

Perhaps they where using an old version of Excel. The older versions I seem to remember only allowed 65,000 rows.

This article gives some more detail about the problems with Excel.

As a former Software Tester, I have to say I am not surprised.

When designing a database, you have to think about whether the software you use can handle the volumes of data, particularly if the volume of data is expected to grow over time. Excel was designed primarily for personal and small businesses, and is not suitable for large scale data collection exercises such as this. (in my opinion at least)

Moderator note: the remainder of this post, and some other posts have been moved to

Spreadsheet error resulted in missing Sars-Cov-2 cases for track and trace

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/covid-infection-rates-v-death-rates-and-a-possible-second-wave.208012/ Some credit to the BBC this time I think for actually headlining the error rather than scaremongering the daily increase number...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Tetchytyke]

What consequences?

Over 40% of people hospitalised with Covid die of it. Where I live 24 people died of Covid, all bar two were from one care home. Death's a pretty big consequence, is it not?

Sources:

A wide disparity in coronavirus mortality rates has emerged in English hospitals, with data seen by the Guardian showing that one hospital trust in south-west England had a death rate from the disease of 80% while in one London trust it was just 12.5%.

NHS data reveals 'huge variation' in Covid-19 death rates across England

Exclusive: hospital mortality rate varies from 12.5% to 80% in different trusts around country

www.google.com

A third of patients admitted to hospital in the UK with Covid-19 are dying, according to a major study whose authors said the observed death rates put the illness on a par with Ebola.

The study tracked the outcomes of nearly 17,000 patients – around one-third of all those admitted to hospital in the UK – and found that 33% had died, 49% were discharged and 17% were still receiving treatment after two weeks.

Third of UK Covid-19 patients taken to hospital die, study finds

Authors of the study said the observed death rates put the illness on a par with Ebola

www.google.com

 

[adc82140]

Over 40% of people hospitalised with Covid die of it. Where I live 24 people died of Covid, all bar two were from one care home. Death's a pretty big consequence, is it not?

I'm not sure where you've picked up that 40% from. At the height of the peak in April it was 6%, and has consistently fallen since, including in the so called "second wave". Are you confusing hospitalisations with ITU admissions?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Over 40% of people hospitalised with Covid die of it. Where I live 24 people died of Covid, all bar two were from one care home. Death's a pretty big consequence, is it not?

It isn't necessarily if you're just sat there waiting to die of old age, as residents of care homes basically are. Certainly my view on the matter is that once I'm in a care home my life is basically over - to me independence (even limited independence) is the key to worthwhile life, without it I basically have nothing.

This is all about people in their 30s and 40s not wanting to lose their parents. My observation is the view of older people is rather different.

 

[adc82140]

It isn't necessarily if you're just sat there waiting to die of old age, as residents of care homes basically are. Certainly my view on the matter is that once I'm in a care home my life is basically over - to me independence (even limited independence) is the key to worthwhile life, without it I basically have nothing.

This is all about people in their 30s and 40s not wanting to lose their parents. My observation is the view of older people is rather different.

I have a lot of professional contact with those undergoing chemotherapy. The dominant opinion from them is that their time on this earth is strictly limited, and they'd much rather see it out with the freedom to do what they please and go as they please, and are happy to run the risk of Covid getting them rather than their disease.

 

[Tetchytyke]

It isn't necessarily if you're just sat there waiting to die of old age, as residents of care homes basically are. Certainly my view on the matter is that once I'm in a care home my life is basically over

Not everyone in a care home is there as a dribbling vegetable waiting for Godot.

My own MIL has Parkinson's and needs to be in residential care because of her physical care needs. Mentally she's as sharp as ever. She's 81 and someone who, according to various posters, is of "no utility". I'll be sure to tell my kid that her granny doesn't matter because people are so selfish that staying in the pub past 10pm or having a week in Spain is more important.