Covid restrictions abroad: updates & observations

[duncanp]

The Italian government is now demanding that all EU countries introduce testing. Their locktivist instincts are once again showing.

Unfortunately I fear this may lead to a repeat of the nonsense of travel restrictions. I thought we were past all that, but perhaps not

I think we have all learned a lot since March 2020.

Introducing travel restrictions will have a severe impact on the travel and hospitality sector, as well as the economies of all EU member states, plus the UK and United States.

All these countries just cannot afford a prolonged period of restrictions again, and if it starts with compulsory testing it will lead on to other measures later.

At the moment, I think this will all blow over in a month or two, as we come to see that the sky is not going to fall in, even if there is a temporary increase in cases following the lifting of restrictions in China.

 

[matthewjohnson]

Wouldn't be winter in the 2020s without some will we won't we bring in restrictions saga. Thought the tradition might have been broken this year but clearly the media love it too much

 

[duncanp]

Confirmation here (on the BBC no less) that the EU thinks there is no justification for COVID tests on travellers from China.

It is going to be difficult for the UK government to justify mandatory testing if the EU have said there is no point.

EU calls screening of travellers from China unjustified

Italy is responding to China's Covid surge with mandatory testing - but the EU will not follow suit.

www.bbc.co.uk

EU calls screening of travellers from China unjustified​

The EU's disease agency has said the screening of travellers from China for Covid-19 would be "unjustified".
On Thursday, Italy urged the rest of the EU to follow its lead and ensure Chinese arrivals were tested, and quarantined if necessary.
The US, Japan, Taiwan and India also recently announced mandatory testing, as China deals with a Covid surge.
But the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said the surge was "not expected to impact" the EU.
In a statement, the ECDC said:

• High levels of Covid in China are anticipated given the country's low immunity and recent relaxation of its rules
• But higher immunity in the EU means a Covid surge in China is not expected to impact the bloc
• The Covid-19 variants circulating in China are already circulating in the EU
• Potential imported infections from China are "rather low" compared to the number of infections already occurring in the EU
• And citizens in the bloc have relatively high vaccination and immunisation

Concerns were raised after Chinese authorities decided to let people travel more freely from 8 January, after almost three years of largely-closed borders.
EU health officials held talks in Brussels on Thursday to co-ordinate any response. The ECDC added: "We remain vigilant and will be ready to use the emergency brake if necessary."
The EU can issue recommendations, but each nation is free to make their own policies, like Italy.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said her country's efforts to curb Covid-19 transmissions from China would be undermined if other EU countries did not follow suit.
In the UK, a minister said the issue was "under review".
Meanwhile, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said testing visitors from China, Hong Kong and Macau was needed "to help slow the spread of the virus as we work to identify... any potential new variants that may emerge".
China's National Health Commission published its most recent daily Covid data on 24 December, registering 4,128 new cases the day before.
But analysts say such numbers are a vast underestimate - and the daily case load may be closer to a million.
On Thursday, British health data firm Airfinity said 9,000 people in China could be dying from Covid-19 each day - almost double its previous daily estimate.
Despite the official numbers being low, the World Health Organization has warned the healthcare system in China could be under severe pressure.
As Covid surges in China, some nearby countries have moved swiftly to announce restrictions.

• In India, people travelling from China and four other Asian countries must produce a negative Covid test before arriving, with those who test positive put in quarantine
• In Japan, from Friday, travellers from China will be tested for Covid upon arrival. Those who test positive will have to quarantine for up to seven days
• Malaysia has put additional tracking and surveillance measures in place
• Meanwhile Taiwan has said people arriving from China, by air or sea, will have to take Covid tests on arrival throughout January

 

[nw1]

The Italian government is now demanding that all EU countries introduce testing. Their locktivist instincts are once again showing.

The current Italian government is not exactly a paragon of common-sense. Their actions certainly are contrary to the theory of some that left=pro restriction, right=anti restriction, being one of the most right-wing governments in the whole of Europe if not the western world.

Unfortunately I fear this may lead to a repeat of the nonsense of travel restrictions. I thought we were past all that, but perhaps not

I still think it's mostly paranoia about China, which has been living a very strange existence this past year: I doubt it (the paranoia) will spread to other countries.

Wouldn't be winter in the 2020s without some will we won't we bring in restrictions saga. Thought the tradition might have been broken this year but clearly the media love it too much

Winter 2028-29: The Omega-67 variant of Covid spreads ever so slightly more than the preceding Omega-66 variant (yet is even less harmful, with a serious illness rate of 0.001% and death rate of 0.000001%). Nonetheless the media and some politicians start demanding the return of testing to enter venues and to travel abroad.

 

[Cdd89]

The current Italian government is not exactly a paragon of common-sense. Their actions certainly are contrary to the theory of some that left=pro restriction, right=anti restriction, being one of the most right-wing governments in the whole of Europe if not the western world

Personally I never thought there was much to that anyway. See heavily restricted Israel (2020) and minimally restricted Mexico and Sweden. Then you have the Netherlands which veered wildly between both extremes under the same government.

I am however concerned that it is politically beneficial for opposition parties to call for restrictions in respect of travel testing from China:

• I think it would be highly popular among uninformed voters
• It can be pointed to as ‘following the science’ simply because many other countries have done so
• It enables the incumbent government to be portrayed as weak for not doing so, and further weak if they U-Turn

My guess is that preempting this challenge is why the US has implemented it; and I think it’s a real risk for any government which hasn’t yet done so.

That said, the momentum feels like it’s dying down a bit, so my concern is fading a little.

 

[Class 33]

I did previously say something along the lines of "Don't worry, mandatory face mask laws or any other of that Covid restrictions nonsense will DEFINITELY not be coming back this winter and beyond.". I very much hope I'm still right on that. But if the mainstream media start being a nuisance again and start running/publishing items such as "Covid restrictions MUST be brought back" or "Mandatory face coverings laws MUST be brought back" day in day out, then I admit I'm going to start getting worried. The problem is when the mainstream media run items like this and try to set the agenda as to what should happen, they have the power to persuade the government to do this and these things end up happening. I am now feeling SLIGHTLY cautious about this at the moment. I for one can't be doing with that mandatory face mask nonsense ever being brought back again, and all those stupid "You must wear a face mask" type signage and PA announcements all over the place again. That nonsense effected my mental health for months and months during 2020 and 2021! Though I think they'll definitely not bring back that social distancing nuisancing restrictions nonsense back again, as those restrictions absolutely wrecks the economy. They did enough damage as it was for the 16 months that nonsense was going. The government would be absolutely WRECKLESS if they ever brought that nonsense back again!

I mentioned this morning that Good Morning Britain mentioned they had an item coming up on this morning's episode about "Should we be wearing face masks again?". This evening I skimmed through today's episode to see this discussion out of curiousity, as I expected the discussion to be engineered to be in favour that we should be wearing face masks again. However, in the end there was no such discussion about this anyway.

 

[Citybreak1]

I doubt politicians would dare impose blanket testing from all countries now. I'd imagine it's just paranoia about China.

The anger from the tourist industry of said countries would be immense (remember several continental countries have their ski season for the next couple of months), and even the politicians must realise that over-prolonged Covid restrictions are one of the contributing factors to the current economic crisis. More significantly, I suspect most ordinary people (i.e. voters) do now, and most people are sick to the back teeth of restrictions and pretending that, at the end of 2022, Covid is more serious than the cost-of-living crisis, when it blatantly isn't.

If we'd have acted this way over the Spanish flu 100 years ago, I'd imagine the media would have been constantly going on about "deadly new variants" of the Spanish flu throughout the 1920s.

A really cynical point of view of course is that Covid is a convenient device for politicians to distract people from other things going on, which they are more directly responsible for. For example I wonder how much of the Omicron hysteria a year ago was cooked up by the Boris government in an attempt to distract from Partygate?

Front page of telegraph is saying they could bring back travel restrictions again. Seems a fast moving story. I am hoping not that means i have to yet again cancel my 2023 holidays? Hopefully it’s just for China

The Italian government is now demanding that all EU countries introduce testing. Their locktivist instincts are once again showing.

Unfortunately I fear this may lead to a repeat of the nonsense of travel restrictions. I thought we were past all that, but perhaps not

Yes exactly was too good to be true. Got to December and the lockdown fanatics are back. Have you seen the comments on daily mail there’s people actually demanding lockdown and more rules again?

 

[Richard Scott]

Yes exactly was too good to be true. Got to December and the lockdown fanatics are back. Have you seen the comments on daily mail there’s people actually demanding lockdown and more rules again?

They can demand as much as they like. I won't be taking any notice of them or any such rules should they be imposed, which I really doubt will happen.

 

[nw1]

Front page of telegraph is saying they could bring back travel restrictions again. Seems a fast moving story. I am hoping not that means i have to yet again cancel my 2023 holidays? Hopefully it’s just for China

I really doubt it will happen, it's almost certainly just the Telegraph scaremongering in an attempt to get people to buy a copy. Remember the whole raison-d-etre of the printed media is to shift copies, and they will do that by hyping up stories to appear worse than they actually are. Once again, I give the monkeypox hysteria back in the early summer as a good example of this.

And I even more doubt it will apply in the spring and summer. If there are any restrictions (about as likely as Russia directly attacking a NATO country, IMO, i.e theoretically possible but very unlikely) I suspect it will be winter only.

There will be a lot of anger if politicians try to wreck the travel industry this summer, due to a virus which now roughly equivalent to flu in terms of severity. And any political party imposing travel restrictions, mandatory testing and the like will I suspect be out on its ear in the next general election. People are absolutely sick of this, and the world has far bigger, and more real, problems right now without pretending Covid is as deadly in 2023 as it was in 2020. So for that reason alone (self-survival is very important to politicians, as we all know), I really can't see that it will happen.

Yes exactly was too good to be true. Got to December and the lockdown fanatics are back. Have you seen the comments on daily mail there’s people actually demanding lockdown and more rules again?

People demanding lockdown in almost 2023 can only be wealthy people with little intelligence, who have obviously not been affected by the cost-of-living crisis (caused at least partly by lockdown) and obviously do not realise that Covid is not the threat it was in 2020.

Personally I never thought there was much to that anyway. See heavily restricted Israel (2020) and minimally restricted Mexico and Sweden.

True, I wasn't aware of what was going on in Israel but do remember Sweden in particular being uncommonly laid-back.

Then you have the Netherlands which veered wildly between both extremes under the same government.

I am however concerned that it is politically beneficial for opposition parties to call for restrictions in respect of travel testing from China:

• I think it would be highly popular among uninformed voters
• It can be pointed to as ‘following the science’ simply because many other countries have done so
• It enables the incumbent government to be portrayed as weak for not doing so, and further weak if they U-Turn

I'm not so sure, I think that most people, left and right, are now fed up of restrictions and I think it would be a very ill-advised strategy for opposition parties to call for restrictions, even if it's just China.

 

[Cdd89]

I'm not so sure, I think that most people, left and right, are now fed up of restrictions and I think it would be a very ill-advised strategy for opposition parties to call for restrictions, even if it's just China.

Covid in China: Checks on visitors under review - UK defence minister

The UK is considering restrictions on visitors from China as the US, Japan and Italy reintroduce testing.

www.bbc.co.uk

The UK government is reviewing whether to introduce Covid restrictions on visitors from China, the defence secretary has said.
Ben Wallace said the Department for Transport would take medical advice and talk to the Department of Health.
Earlier, an ex-health minister urged the government to consider testing arrivals from China for Covid.
A number of countries are introducing mandatory testing in response to China's coronavirus surge.
Asked whether the government would consider restrictions, Mr Wallace said: "The government is looking at that, it's under review, we noticed obviously what the US has done and India and I think Italy has looked at it."
"We keep under review all the time, obviously, health threats to the UK, wherever they may be."

(Ironically Labour hasn’t said a word in support of more restrictions, underlining the nonsense of the left/right split!).

I think “travel testing from China” has strong “politicians want to do it because it will be popular* and look tough, and if they don’t the opposition will make them look weak, but scientists keep inconveniently giving the wrong answer” vibes. The UK Gov has flip-flopped on this about 4 times in the last 3 days. It’s beginning to feel inevitable.


* I do disagree with you that it would be unpopular -I think it would be very popular, that’s the problem.

 

[nw1]

Covid in China: Checks on visitors under review - UK defence minister

The UK is considering restrictions on visitors from China as the US, Japan and Italy reintroduce testing.

www.bbc.co.uk

(Ironically Labour hasn’t said a word in support of more restrictions, underlining the nonsense of the left/right split!).

I think “travel testing from China” has strong “politicians want to do it because it will be popular* and look tough, and if they don’t the opposition will make them look weak, but scientists keep inconveniently giving the wrong answer” vibes. The UK Gov has flip-flopped on this about 4 times in the last 3 days. It’s beginning to feel inevitable.


* I do disagree with you that it would be unpopular -I think it would be very popular, that’s the problem.

The only reason why I can see it being popular is sinophobia, in all honesty. I dislike (to put it mildly) Xi at least as much as the next person, but have no such quarrel with the Chinese people.

In fact I do wonder whether the underlying motivation behind Covid-related travel restrictions in general (certainly from summer 2021 onwards) is actually racism and xenophobia, because they only slow the spread slightly, they don't prevent it spreading completely. (And in this case, I'm not even sure what it is we are afraid of. We have Covid already, why are we worried about Covid from China?)

I'm not sure the US (which has an institutional anti-foreigner attitude, as evidenced through its often rude and aggressive border guards), Italy (hard-right leadership) and India (ditto) are the best examples to follow. For instance I don't think any other continental European countries have raised concern, and an earlier post suggests the EU isn't too fussed either. But I suppose the UK government always has to do the polar opposite of the EU.

 

[philosopher]

I think “travel testing from China” has strong “politicians want to do it because it will be popular* and look tough, and if they don’t the opposition will make them look weak, but scientists keep inconveniently giving the wrong answer” vibes. The UK Gov has flip-flopped on this about 4 times in the last 3 days. It’s beginning to feel inevitable.


* I do disagree with you that it would be unpopular -I think it would be very popular, that’s the problem.

The issue in 2020 and the first half of 2021 was that polls consistently showed people wanted strict measures in response to Covid. The government at the time I do actually think was not keen on restrictions but was essentially forced into due them to media and public pressure.

If the government therefore does introduce restrictions on travellers from China, it will be because it thinks it is popular and not due any sensible medical reason.

On the plus side, I think restrictions on travellers from China is as far as it will go as I do not think there is any public support for further restrictions on travel, let alone domestic restrictions such as masks.

 

[matthewjohnson]

I'm not so sure. Might just be the people I mix with, but they're a combination of supporters of restrictions or resigned to doing it all again "if we have to". The media can easily persuade these folk that we "have to" with a few scary stories about variants and a collapsing health service

 

[nw1]

I'm not so sure. Might just be the people I mix with, but they're a combination of supporters of restrictions or resigned to doing it all again "if we have to". The media can easily persuade these folk that we "have to" with a few scary stories about variants and a collapsing health service

Do the media actually want restrictions though, or do they just want to threaten them?

It seems it's the latter, because it sells copies and that's all they are interested in at the end of the day. They would probably stop short of actually supporting their imposition, though what they do want, I suspect, is for the government to threaten them and then say "No" at the last moment, so they can then throw a manufactured hissy fit and, yes, you guessed it - sell more papers.

 

[matthewjohnson]

Do the media actually want restrictions though, or do they just want to threaten them?

It seems it's the latter, because it sells copies and that's all they are interested in at the end of the day.

Yeah I don't think they care whether they're introduced or not, they just love covid and restrictions as easy clicks. Last time no sooner had restrictions been introduced, they were demanding to know when they'd be lifted again. Then when they were lifted it was "but is it too soon?"

 

[VauxhallandI]

I'm not so sure. Might just be the people I mix with, but they're a combination of supporters of restrictions or resigned to doing it all again "if we have to". The media can easily persuade these folk that we "have to" with a few scary stories about variants and a collapsing health service

That’s interesting because I’m dying to meet these people, I was beginning to think they didn’t exist in physical form!

 

[Cdd89]

If the government therefore does introduce restrictions on travellers from China, it will be because it thinks it is popular and not due any sensible medical reason.

I think they’d be right to think it is popular:

https://twitter.com/simoncalder/status/1608458753216761863

No testing/wait and see 27.5%
Testing for all/some arrivals 72.5%

I suspect this poll is biased in favour of not testing too, since he is a travel journalist.

Ultimately people are keen of restrictions which apply to people other than themselves, if sold as reducing the chance of restrictions on themselves. That also explains why the “test all arrivals” response is low (only 15%).

 

[greyman42]

People demanding lockdown in almost 2023 can only be wealthy people with little intelligence, who have obviously not been affected by the cost-of-living crisis (caused at least partly by lockdown) and obviously do not realise that Covid is not the threat it was in 2020.

I am not so sure about this. Wealthy people like to be out and about and as such would not support lockdowns. From my experience, the people shouting for lockdowns were the work from home brigade.

The issue in 2020 and the first half of 2021 was that polls consistently showed people wanted strict measures in response to Covid.

This is debatable. No one ever asked my opinion.

 

[island]

Ultimately people are keen of restrictions which apply to people other than themselves, if sold as reducing the chance of restrictions on themselves.

Precisely.

 

[yorksrob]

I think they’d be right to think it is popular:

https://twitter.com/simoncalder/status/1608458753216761863

I suspect this poll is biased in favour of not testing too, since he is a travel journalist.

Ultimately people are keen of restrictions which apply to people other than themselves, if sold as reducing the chance of restrictions on themselves. That also explains why the “test all arrivals” response is low (only 15%).

It probably has a lot to do with China being happy to introduce such restrictions from everywhere else over the past two years.

What's good for the goose is good for the gander......

 

[350401]

Government has caved. Apparently Sunak took the decision himself, and has overridden the scientific advice which said it was not needed. Ffs. This will never end.

 

[davetheguard]

It is going to be difficult for the UK government to justify mandatory testing if the EU have said there is no point.

Is it? I thought this government's instinctive response was to do the complete opposite of the EU under all circumstances.

Whether it is good idea or a terribly bad one doesn't seem to come in to it.

 

[gabrielhj07]

LBC tells us that the Government is indeed about to introduce testing restrictions from China.

Government has caved. Apparently Sunak took the decision himself, and has overridden the scientific advice which said it was not needed. Ffs. This will never end.

Beat me to it

 

[brad465]

Is it? I thought this government's instinctive response was to do the complete opposite of the EU under all circumstances.

Whether it is good idea or a terribly bad one doesn't seem to come in to it.

This was my thinking, but it will interesting to see what the internal party reaction to it is, and whether the CRG will revive its cause (its leader Mark Harper sits in Cabinet).

 

[Watershed]

Oh dear. Here we go again

 

[duncanp]

Is it? I thought this government's instinctive response was to do the complete opposite of the EU under all circumstances.

Whether it is good idea or a terribly bad one doesn't seem to come in to it.

Of course people from China can just get a flight to France, where testing is not required (yet), and then travel on to the UK.

And can you trust the accuracy of a test performed in China before boarding a flight?

Given their tendency to be less than forthcoming about COVID generally, I wouldn't put it past the Chinese to falsify COVID test results.

How long this lasts for will depend on what the results of the tests are, and crucially whether any new variant emerges.

My guess is that this is a panic reaction, just to be seen to be doing something, however pointless it actually is.

 

[danm14]

So presumably that'll be passenger locator forms for all travel again.

 

[gabrielhj07]

I wouldn't put it past the Chinese to falsify COVID test results.

Just China?

 

[greyman42]

LBC tells us that the Government is indeed about to introduce testing restrictions from China.

It will be interesting to hear Labours response to this.

 

[350401]

If the Tories cannot keep the U.K. out of restrictions, that is the last argument in favour of voting for them gone.