Croydon Tram Crash

[BestWestern]

There's absolutely nothing wrong with a bit of speculation on a discussion forum. Nobody here is going to hinder the investigation by speculating.

Indeed.

We have the same issues each and every time there is an unfortunate incident; the discussion begins and then before long there are the inevitable cries of objection, suggesting that everybody should cease conversation until the reports come out. This is a discussion forum for heaven's sake, it is exactly the place that people come to speculate, chew the fat and throw their opinions - both informed and armchair! - into the ring. That is what a forum is for. Like it or not, people find disaster fascinating. Television production companies have made a fortune out of it, in all it's various documentary forms. I struggle to grasp why those who are offended by anything that isn't an official report would be reading these threads in the first place, knowing very well that such information doesn't yet exist.
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The vehicle actually appears not to have suffered much damage at all (which would have caused injury to those inside)

I reckon the injuries and deaths would have been caused by the rapid deceleration and overturning.

Many will have been thrown through the windows. Think of how large windows are when compared to modern heavy rail rolling stock, I believe they have bonded glazing so effectively a large sheet of glass the whole way along the car sides. I would imagine, as with a bus, they'll also be designed to break easily to aid escape, rather than to be unbreakable as per a train. This also concurs with the suggestion of serious limb injuries to some survivors.

 

[mirodo]

I believe the theoretical top speed of these trams is 50 mph, not that they should get anywhere near approaching that speed at any point ever.

They do get up to what feels like quite a considerable speed in the Park Hill tunnels between the crash site at Sandilands and Lloyd Park at the other end of the straight length of track. It's difficult to judge *how* fast, and it's possible that being in tunnel makes it seem faster than it really is, but it certainly seems fast to my inexpert opinion.

 

[Chris M]

The quote in full:

Oh mate... 30 of us on the tram this morning and we all thought our time was up

 

[GodAtum]

I'm surprised at home many people where travelling away from the morning flow. I wonder where they were all going. If it had been a tram towards Croydon it would have been much much worse.

 

[edwin_m]

I believe the theoretical top speed of these trams is 50 mph, not that they should get anywhere near approaching that speed at any point ever.

They do get pretty much up to 50mph (80km/h) on those segregated sections where the stops are widely-spaced, as do other modern tramways albeit some have a slightly lower maximum.

 

[Antman]

The quote in full:

Oh mate... 30 of us on the tram this morning and we all thought our time was up ?????? tram driver took the hard corner to Sandilands at 40mph!! I swear the tram lifted onto one side.
Everyone still shaking.. it's mad

Possibly a slight exaggeration but if it really was that bad they should have reported it.

 

[AndyPJG]

I'm surprised at home many people where travelling away from the morning flow. I wonder where they were all going. If it had been a tram towards Croydon it would have been much much worse.

It was a tram going towards Croydon, as per RAIB bulletin.

 

[mirodo]

It would, I think, do no harm for you to make the RAIB and BTP aware of such allegations - especially if an (approximate) time and date can be provided. It may or may not be relevant, and they may or may not already be aware, but making sure the relevant people have an opportunity to assess the information seems prudent.

The person in question has posted on their Facebook page that they have already been in touch with BTP and been advised by them not to talk to any journalists or make further comment.

 

[Antman]

I'm surprised at home many people where travelling away from the morning flow. I wonder where they were all going. If it had been a tram towards Croydon it would have been much much worse.

The tram was going towards Croydon.

 

[Domh245]

I'm not sure anyone has mentioned the maximum permitted speed on this curve - it is 25 km per hour, equating to 16 mph. I believe at the time of the accident it would still have been pretty dark given the time of year, also the weather conditions. The BTP have stated the tram was moving 'considerably in excess' of this speed. I believe the theoretical top speed of these trams is 50 mph, not that they should get anywhere near approaching that speed at any point ever. I also know from having been in Croydon by sheer chance when the first-ever public tram went through that there was almost a tragic accident by the almshouses at the end of George Street when a toddler ran out in front of it - only the tram bell, which was an afterthought to the original plan, being deployed saved him being struck.

The trams can, and do, reach 50mph (if you stand behind the drivers cab of a variobahn, you can easily see the speedo) in plenty of places. I'm not really sure what points you are trying to make with the rest of the post?

Disorientated driver?
Lack of Route Knowledge?
Combination of the two?
Something else?

 

[Chris M]

They do get up to what feels like quite a considerable speed in the Park Hill tunnels between the crash site at Sandilands and Lloyd Park at the other end of the straight length of track. It's difficult to judge *how* fast, and it's possible that being in tunnel makes it seem faster than it really is, but it certainly seems fast to my inexpert opinion.

The diagram below (archived from the Unofficial Tramlink site) shows that the permitted speed through the tunnels is 80km/h (50 mph):

I believe the source to be reliable but I'm not 100% certain of that. This diagram will not represent any changes made post circa 2006.

 

[Tim R-T-C]

I think it is blindingly obvious that the tram was going too fast or it wouldn't have overturned.

Not necessarily, track might have been washed away in the heavy rain, the train may have struck a foreign object, the wheels might have failed.

Hope the investigation is better handled than the Glasgow Bin Lorry crash at Christmas two years ago.

Yes, that was an unforgivable decision made by the prosecutors, robbing the poor families of justice and answers and one that hopefully will never be repeated.

 

[Antman]

They do get up to what feels like quite a considerable speed in the Park Hill tunnels between the crash site at Sandilands and Lloyd Park at the other end of the straight length of track. It's difficult to judge *how* fast, and it's possible that being in tunnel makes it seem faster than it really is, but it certainly seems fast to my inexpert opinion.

Yes probably one of the fastest parts of the network and then they slow to a crawl on the curve at Sandilands. Going down Gravel Hill is another very fast section.
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The trams can, and do, reach 50mph (if you stand behind the drivers cab of a variobahn, you can easily see the speedo) in plenty of places. I'm not really sure what points you are trying to make with the rest of the post?

Disorientated driver?
Lack of Route Knowledge?
Combination of the two?
Something else?

I doubt it would have been lack of route knowledge, I suspect it was just due to poor rail conditions, heavy rain and leaf fall.

 

[Busaholic]

The trams can, and do, reach 50mph (if you stand behind the drivers cab of a variobahn, you can easily see the speedo) in plenty of places. I'm not really sure what points you are trying to make with the rest of the post?

Disorientated driver?
Lack of Route Knowledge?
Combination of the two?
Something else?

There are far more road accidents ascribed to drivers (both car and lorry) falling asleep during hours of darkness than during daylight hours: as BTP are mentioning the possibility of the driver falling asleep, I think it might be pertinent. The other point I was perhaps obliquely making is that tram driving on a system like Croydon's with street running on every journey is imo much more akin to driving a bus than a train, though it has elements of the latter.

 

[Zoidberg]

I'm not sure anyone has mentioned the maximum permitted speed on this curve - it is 25 km per hour, equating to 16 mph. ....

The RAIB reports the limit as 20kph/12mph ... see the quote in post #136.

 

[RobShipway]

Indeed.

We have the same issues each and every time there is an unfortunate incident; the discussion begins and then before long there are the inevitable cries of objection, suggesting that everybody should cease conversation until the reports come out. This is a discussion forum for heaven's sake, it is exactly the place that people come to speculate, chew the fat and throw their opinions - both informed and armchair! - into the ring. That is what a forum is for. Like it or not, people find disaster fascinating.--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

That has been my argument on a few occasions, but people end up complaining about me when I have wanted to be discussing things, whether it is a train/tram disaster or just about general rolling stock after which I get hurtful e-mails from the Moderators as to the fact of wording used is not correct or that I am stating a comment that is not allowed within these forums.

Also, if any of the victims or the family of the dead dead should end up with reading details from this forum I would not like them to be picking up the details from this thread as actual fact, hence why I suggest thinks are left until after the RAIB investigation. There maybe, snippets of facts that have been given to the BBC or other sources, but at the moment it is more likely that 2 & 2 is equal to be 22 rather than 4 at the moment until things can be proved.

 

[midlandred]

Tragic news from Croydon - heartfelt thoughts with all involved, passengers, friends, relatives and emergency crews

BBC homepage now showing an image confirming the vehicle involved is 2551

For anyone unfamiliar with these vehicles, here is 2551 in happier times

 

[Antman]

Not necessarily, track might have been washed away in the heavy rain, the train may have struck a foreign object, the wheels might have failed.



Yes, that was an unforgivable decision made by the prosecutors, robbing the poor families of justice and answers and one that hopefully will never be repeated.

There really is no way that tram would have ended up like that if it were being driven within the speed limit.

 

[matt_world2004]

From a business perspective if First are held liable for the resulting compensation claims, the fines for loss of mileage, capacity and revenue (Over an extended period) the tramlink concession will turn for them from a moderately profitable one. To a deeply unprofitable one. Bus concession agreements over the last two years have been placing greater emphasis on safety and driver welfare than before. So I would be suprised if something similar was not happening in the tramlink concession too.

 

[Chris M]

There really is no way that tram would have ended up like that if it were being driven within the speed limit.

There is indeed no way that the tram would have ended up like that if it were travelling within the speed limit. It is though possible that the driver attempted to slow down for the corner but was unable to do so. Reasons for this might include mechanical or electrical failure of the braking system, a stuck accelerator, and/or railhead conditions.

In this country every person is innocent until a court has proven them guilty. As far as has been released, the driver has not even been charged with a crime at this point so stating that he was intentionally or recklessly driving in excess of the sped limit is at best premature and at worst libellous.

 

[Antman]

There is indeed no way that the tram would have ended up like that if it were travelling within the speed limit. It is though possible that the driver attempted to slow down for the corner but was unable to do so. Reasons for this might include mechanical or electrical failure of the braking system, a stuck accelerator, and/or railhead conditions.

In this country every person is innocent until a court has proven them guilty. As far as has been released, the driver has not even been charged with a crime at this point so stating that he was intentionally or recklessly driving in excess of the sped limit is at best premature and at worst libellous.

I suggest that you read again what I have actually written.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I can't link as I'm on my phone, but The Mirror are reporting a passenger as saying the driver told them "he must have blacked out". I guess the investigation will tell us what happened.

 

[mirodo]

I can't link as I'm on my phone, but The Mirror are reporting a passenger as saying the driver told them "he must have blacked out". I guess the investigation will tell us what happened.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/huge-rescue-operation-sandilands-station-9226276

Warning: there are some fairly graphic descriptions of injuries and fatalities which some many want to avoid reading.

 

[Chris M]

I suggest that you read again what I have actually written.

I have, three times now, and cannot see how you were saying anything other than the tram was being driven too fast.
My point is that while the tram was travelling to fast we do not, at this point, know whether this was the result of action or inaction by the driver, by factors outside the control of the driver, or some combination of these.

 

[Antman]

I have, three times now, and cannot see how you were saying anything other than the tram was being driven too fast.
My point is that while the tram was travelling to fast we do not, at this point, know whether this was the result of action or inaction by the driver, by factors outside the control of the driver, or some combination of these.

The tram was obviously going too fast but I haven't attached any blame to the driver.

As I said previously I suspect poor rail conditions, torrential rain and leaf fall, were a significant factor.

 

[Chris M]

I can't link as I'm on my phone, but The Mirror are reporting a passenger as saying the driver told them "he must have blacked out". I guess the investigation will tell us what happened.

If fatigue was an issue (and I'm certain the RAIB will investigate whether it was) then it is possible the driver had a microsleep (according to Wikipedia lasting from a fraction of a second up to 30 seconds). Having experienced these (fortunately not while undertaking a safety critical task) it really can feel like you blacked out and can lead to disorientation when awaking.

 

[bramling]

I can't link as I'm on my phone, but The Mirror are reporting a passenger as saying the driver told them "he must have blacked out". I guess the investigation will tell us what happened.

Personally I wouldn't place too much emphasis on anything the driver has (allegedly) said so soon after what must have been a highly traumatic experience, followed by the trauma of the aftermath. My thoughts are with everyone involved, and especially for the driver on what is guaranteed to be the worst day of his/her life.

It seems fairly obvious the tram was going too fast for the curve in question. The wonderful benefit of hindsight could say that someone perhaps might have foreseen that a 12mph (or whatever it is) curve at the end of a straight section where I believe speeds of 50 mph are attainable (can anyone confirm?) was a potential point of failure, however one of the inherent characteristics of light rail is the ability to have tight curves mixed in with fast running and aggressive acceleration/braking characteristics.

As to possible causes, there are only really three likely scenarios. Some kind of braking system failure, driver non-action (for whatever reason) or poor adhesion. I believe these trams would be fitted with a track hazard brake, does anyone here have experience of how these perform under conditions of very low rail adhesion?

 

[neonison]

One cannot help but draw parallels between this tragic incident and that at Santiago de Compostela in 2013. A very tight bend after a series of tunnels normally taken at a much higher line speed. Of course one can say that heavy rail is different.
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I believe these trams would be fitted with a track hazard brake, does anyone here have experience of how these perform under conditions of very low rail adhesion?

Take a look at the RAIB report: https://www.gov.uk/raib-reports/collision-between-two-trams-at-shalesmoor

 

[JaJaWa]

BBC homepage now showing an image confirming the vehicle involved is 2551

TfL may wish to change the Twitter header out of respect for the incident.

(Unless it's intentional... seems strangely coincidental).

 

[transmanche]

However, I only wished to highlight in this thread the point that there was a lack of coverage of this incident in the broadcast media.

And has been pointed out to you numerous times, it was covered extensively by the broadcast media. The BBC News Channel (which was running a special US Election Programme, the biggest global news story of the week) is not 'the broadcast media'.

The BBC have published their guidelines for journalists when 'breaking news', which prioritises Radio (specifically 5 Live, for a major national story) over the TV News Channel.

But for five hours after the incident, there was no suggestion from the emergency services of any fatalities and (as others have noted) the tram didn't look wrecked. So at that time, the story did not seem a big one worthy of national coverage - the worst people expected was perhaps a few walking wounded. It did, however, receive extensive coverage in the London media (notably BBC Radio London and LBC London News) and on the BBC website (there was a live update page from BBC London from 7am).

Moral of the story is, don't watch TV news channels for breaking news stories on a day with a major global news story - they are always going to stick with that story. If you want breaking news, you'll always get it faster on the radio and/or social media.