Current events in Afghanistan

[najaB]

America is not dependable and we should not rely on them for anything.

A bit rich for a Brit to say that America isn't dependable because they withdrew their troops in August 2021 considering that we withdrew our combat troops in 2014...

 

[Gloster]

Ultimately I think it might be best if Britain learned the lesson that the French learned after Suez.

America is not dependable and we should not rely on them for anything.

Ah, but we have the Special Relationship. Which means that we do whatever the US wants and take the bullets for them (sometimes literally). In return our politicians can call themselves World Statesmen/women and get photo ops with the president in front of the White House (“Who the hell is this limey guy?”). The US has long had only one interest in its foreign policy: its own. To a great extent that is true of all states, but the US is more inward looking than many, and the wider context of their acts and their long term implications are less of a concern to the domestic electorate than many other states’.

 

[yorksrob]

Ultimately I think it might be best if Britain learned the lesson that the French learned after Suez.

America is not dependable and we should not rely on them for anything.

No country is entirely dependable (in that they will all tend to act in their own interests). This is why the UK (and France) developed their own nuclear deterrents, as an example.

However, our interests are still more likely to coincide with those of other Western democracies such as the US, Europe, Oceania etc.

 

[DarloRich]

I find it interesting that Dominic Raab co wrote a book that said:

• Too many people in Britain prefer a lie-in to hard work
• Once they enter the workplace, the British are among the worst idlers in the world
• We work among the lowest hours, we retire early and our productivity is poor
• the British are more interested in football and pop music

Obviously this only applies to the scum, not top blokes like Raaby for whom it is perfectly acceptable for them to be idle on a sun lounger lying in the sun thinking about his next pina colada while staying in a £6k a night exclusive resort in Crete!

The man is a lazy, hypocritical, moron unfit for his role.

And now we have another cock and bull story pushed out by Raab’s handlers to try and absolve him of blame for his inactionsOddly enough, none of this was mentioned two days ago when he was in the House.

Too busy to make a call on Friday, a call which never got made in the end, and which was blamed on the “rapidly deteriorating situation”. I said to someone yesterday when they said it had been delegated to an unnamed junior minister that it was a lie, if it had happened they’d have named the individual.

And yet he stayed on holiday till Monday.

Do they really think people will believe this?

Sadly, they will be believed. I find it more insulting that this is the best lie they could come up with. It isn't even remotely convincing.

 

[yorksrob]

I find it interesting that Dominic Raab co wrote a book that said:

• Too many people in Britain prefer a lie-in to hard work
• Once they enter the workplace, the British are among the worst idlers in the world
• We work among the lowest hours, we retire early and our productivity is poor
• the British are more interested in football and pop music

I suspect parts of it are outright untruths (the lowest hours bit springs to mind) but even if it were true, it would merely suggest that the British people were sensible, as opposed to the sort of psychopathic workaholics who tend to infest the upper echelons of the economy.

 

[Strathclyder]

Remember this when the next election rolls around.

Oh I won't. Not that I have or would ever vote Tory anyway (my stomach lurches at the mere thought), this clusterfudge has merely strengthened that view.

For better or for worse, this is gonna stick in my craw for some time.

 

[Typhoon]

I find it interesting that Dominic Raab co wrote a book that said:

• Too many people in Britain prefer a lie-in to hard work
• Once they enter the workplace, the British are among the worst idlers in the world
• We work among the lowest hours, we retire early and our productivity is poor
• the British are more interested in football and pop music

Is the book. by chance. 'Britannia Unchained' (co-authors Priti Patel, Liz Truss. Kwasi Kwarteng and Chris Skidmore). Cover price £19.99 (paperback) for which you get 116 pages of content (plus notes, bibliography and index). You guys know how to make money. Reviews are pretty interesting (average 3 *s) with claims of many typo's, immature writing styles and in two cases claims that they have borrowed from their own work previous published. I'm beginning to see where they might have got some of their ideas from.

More interested in football and pop music, so? 'All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy'. Maybe Raab needs to go back to the sixties when the UK did alright out of its pop music boom, we led the world. And most of them (at least initially) paid tax in this country.

Sadly, what talent that the Parliamentary Conservative Party has is largely confined to the backbenches.

Reviews are from a 'South American river' related website.

A report submitted to the government in January laid out how the US pull-out risked undermining the Afghan government and allowing the country to descend into civil war.

But the Conservative chair of the International Relations and Defence Select Committee in the House of Lords told Sky News she was left "very disappointed" by the way the government failed to heed the concerns raised in its "UK in Afghanistan" report, published in January.

The committee interviewed dozens of experts, including former ambassadors, ministers and the former chief of defence staff, as part of its inquiry.

It found the UK had "shown little inclination to exert an independent voice on policy in Afghanistan" and "instead has followed the lead of the US and has been too reticent in raising its distinctive voice".

"The ongoing presence of UK troops in Afghanistan depends on the deployment decisions of the US," the committee's report said.

"We were disappointed by the lack of analysis of the implications of the planned US withdrawal from Afghanistan provided by ministers in their evidence.

"We ask the government to provide to us its assessment of the US's policy."

But according to Baroness Anelay, a former government minister who chairs the committee, when the government issued its response in March, the Foreign Office failed to provide what was requested.

"I was very disappointed with the response the government provided to that report," the Tory peer told Sky News.

"We asked them to provide us with an assessment of the US policy of withdrawal because we were concerned about the lack of it in the evidence from ministers.

"All they did was acknowledge our concern, they didn't provide any further analysis.

"Their response seemed to assume the Resolute Support Mission would be able to continue to train, advise and assist Afghan forces.

"It seemed to accept everything was going to be fine, that we could cope. There is no recognition in any of that response to the fact the number of troops could change so dramatically.

"It seems they blindsided themselves because they didn't do the analysis we requested."

The committee is not without expertise. besides the chair (whose four ministerial positions have all been in foreign affairs), there is Jock Stirrup (former Chief of the Defence Staff), Ming Campbell, Paul Boateng (former High Commissioner to South Africa), David Alton and Tessa Blackstone. Ok, so some of the others are political insiders but those I have listed wouldn't be afraid of asking difficult and searching questions. This government was warned. Maybe the worst wouldn't happen but, surely, where lives are at stake, you hope for the best and plan for the worst (instead we've got the worstest).

Source:'They blindsided themselves': Ministers ignored 'excoriating' report sent months ago that US withdrawal would destabilise Afghanistan - claims (msn.com)

 

[Busaholic]

Is the book. by chance. 'Britannia Unchained' (co-authors Priti Patel, Liz Truss. Kwasi Kwarteng and Chris Skidmore). Cover price £19.99 (paperback) for which you get 116 pages of content (plus notes, bibliography and index). You guys know how to make money. Reviews are pretty interesting (average 3 *s) with claims of many typo's, immature writing styles and in two cases claims that they have borrowed from their own work previous published. I'm beginning to see where they might have got some of their ideas from.

Liz Truss? I can only assume she was in charge of the colouring-in.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm not against President Biden, and sympathise with his (and the US population's) desire not to become permanent governors of Afghanistan, but the assertion that the non-US allies could somehow have had the choice to carry on after the US withdrawal, is fanciful in the extreme. The US was always the senior partner in this exercise and the idea of the UK carrying on afterwards is unrealistic.

 

[najaB]

The US was always the senior partner in this exercise and the idea of the UK carrying on afterwards is unrealistic.

Agreed that the US was the senior partner, but the point being made is that it's somewhat hypocritical to criticise the other guy for pulling out when you pulled out a long time ago.

 

[yorksrob]

Agreed that the US was the senior partner, but the point being made is that it's somewhat hypocritical to criticise the other guy for pulling out when you pulled out a long time ago.

Fair point, I'd assumed we were still in place.

We've absolutely no justification in insisting that the USA commits its men to a conflict in which we're no longer involved.

On the other hand it makes it even less likely that we'd be able to carry on with the military presence.

 

[Typhoon]

Liz Truss? I can only assume she was in charge of the colouring-in.

In charge of, possibly. The cover is quite effective, blue and red on a white background, it may be the best element of the book (the sections of writing are nothing special). She won't actually have designed it; like most of the cabinet she is very good at saying things, not so good at doing. I noticed that our PM was telling our NATO allies what they should be doing the other day. He's a fine one to talk.

I am pleased to report that it does not feature on the bookshelf of an public library in Kent so I have no idea whether Raab wrote anything inspirational about how to extricate yourself from a difficult position overseas!

 

[ainsworth74]

Agreed that the US was the senior partner, but the point being made is that it's somewhat hypocritical to criticise the other guy for pulling out when you pulled out a long time ago.

Fair point, I'd assumed we were still in place.

We've absolutely no justification in insisting that the USA commits its men to a conflict in which we're no longer involved.

On the other hand it makes it even less likely that we'd be able to carry on with the military presence.

Combat troops withdrew in 2014 but we still had around 750 troops in theater providing training to the Afghan Army. So we still had some skin in the game.

 

[yorksrob]

Combat troops withdrew in 2014 but we still had around 750 troops in theater providing training to the Afghan Army. So we still had some skin in the game.

Fair point.

We can perhaps criticise to an extent.

It has to be said though, that if the Afghan army wasn't ready after twenty years of training, it never would be.

 

[DarloRich]

There is another interesting interview with Rory Stewart on something called Politics Joe. It is worth looking out. I don't like Tories but listening to him shows the lack of competence, experience and intrest within the Johnson regime.

It has to be said though, that if the Afghan army wasn't ready after twenty years of training, it never would be.

It doesn't help when your entire air support and air mobility is removed overnight without notice!

 

[Typhoon]

There is another interesting interview with Rory Stewart on something called Politics Joe. It is worth looking out. I don't like Tories but listening to him shows the lack of competence, experience and intrest within the Johnson regime.

It doesn't help when your entire air support and air mobility is removed overnight without notice!

Stewart lost the whip soon after Johnson became PM and resigned from the Tories in October 2019. Judging by his performance on Question Time this week, a chasm has developed between him and the Johnson cabinet.

The PoliticsJoe channel is pretty sound. I find the mashups clever and, usually, amusing.

 

[yorksrob]

There is another interesting interview with Rory Stewart on something called Politics Joe. It is worth looking out. I don't like Tories but listening to him shows the lack of competence, experience and intrest within the Johnson regime.

It doesn't help when your entire air support and air mobility is removed overnight without notice!

It doesn't. There's no excuse for not giving allies notice.

 

[ainsworth74]

It doesn't help when your entire air support and air mobility is removed overnight without notice!

Indeed. And we (NATO) of course taught them to fight like we fight. With massive air support to rain down destruction from on high. How surprising that they failed when the entire way of war we taught them was gone.

 

[Sm5]

It doesn't. There's no excuse for not giving allies notice.

The precedence was set, when they quit Bagram without telling the Afghan army outside.
Thing is will they quit Kabul airport in the same way … we already know not everyone will get out, so what happens when the 6500 airport defenders reduce in number very quickly, and the taliban will have heads up that the bag is collapsing in the perimeter security as they try to exit without notice ?
Will there be a repeat of last weekend ?, or will there be an organised handing over of the keys to the airport, control tower etc to the Taliban who bring in their own form of security and emigration controls before the last c130s leave .. wont that be a pretty photo op ?

 

[yorksrob]

The precedence was set, when they quit Bagram without telling the Afghan army outside.
Thing is will they quit Kabul airport in the same way … we already know not everyone will get out, so what happens when the 6500 airport defenders reduce in number very quickly, and the taliban will have heads up that the bag is collapsing in the perimeter security ?
Will there be a repeat of last weekend ?

Sadly, it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[ainsworth74]

Thing is will they quit Kabul airport in the same way

Allegedly (and I emphasise allegedly) one of the things 2 para (and I assume others) have been doing is keeping a very close eye on the US forces just in case they do just that.

If true it's hard to blame them...

 

[edwin_m]

Hasn't everyone known since 2020 that the US was likely to pull out? Even if some were expecting Biden to change policy, there was several months warning when he came to power and didn't. So why does the withdrawal seem to have taken so many people by surprise?

 

[birchesgreen]

I think it was the suddenness, he said by September 11th but they left quickly a few months earlier. Mind you it probably made no little difference at the end of the day.

 

[Sm5]

Coming soon is the anniversary of September 11th.
The US pullout date is August 31st.
Bidens poll ratings are falling very fast, whilst Americans support the pull out, they are horrified by the execution of it.

To me thats problematic.

In the 11 days from August 31st, the $150mn US embassy in Kabul will be abandoned and without any local protection in the vicinity.
its evacuation was hasty.
There will be both military intelligence, security, surveillance and technology in that building.
arguably today even though its closed, its still US turf and they can easily go back, but only as long as they have reasonable access, which means the airport.

so..
Will Americans wake up to the scenes of last weekend as the last flights exit Kabul on Sept 11th ?.. not very popular, nor will still being in Kabul on Sept 12th will be very palatable either.

Will Biden tolerate CNN showing scenes of the Taliban dancing on the roof of their embassy to Americans waking up on September 11th ?..to me thats just one image too far.. i’m not sure Biden could overcome that either.

And if the Taliban dont, almost certainly the Russians will persuade the Taliban to let them have a look around… again a military step too far.

So to me that means two options… troops staying, or the building going.
Both will lead to a dire end state situation, but also frames the dates for this procedure to end… i think it’ll all be over before the 11th, and probably with an air gap of time to distinguish it.

That cruise of 2 F15s over Kabul the other day, this talk of maybe extending after Sept 1st isnt coincidence, theres a message being sent here. The Taliban controlling the airfield access is their message.

Thing is will the Americans exit, before or after their international allies assisting them on the ground ?..and then what ? Its not just who turns off the lights, but how you turn off the lights.

There is no easy way to hide it.. the clue will be the sudden cessation of incoming evacuation flights, but even with 500 men per transport, your going to need at least 12 flights, just for the 6500 US presence, without processing any refugees outbound… thats at least a day of non-stop evac activity… they couldnt hold the airfield with 3000 last week, so maybe they need to provide air cover for the airport, and of course someone has to take care of that building, one way or another.. thats when it might get very ugly… for the Americans, or their allies left behind at the very end.. as well as the panic of those outside, and a Taliban response… unless theirs ”hidden” money involved, somewhere in the political background to grease wheels, to me I just dont think its going to end well.

Edit.. I just saw Clarissa Ward (CNN) got out last night. whatever you think of CNN, shes been pretty bold to stay and wander in Kabul city (not the airport), and without forces protection over this last week, including several live reports, some of which were quite definitely a bit unsanitised and a little raw in the field. Whilst no doubt her CNN cred / local stature gave some protection, it wasnt without risk as some broadcasts showed, her director was about to get beaten live on a broadcast when the interpreter/guide stepped in just in time and warned the taliban guy they were American.
I doubt she’d willingly not be the last one to leave, and it means CNN now has no local reporter, the fact she suddenly went last night, suggests things may be coming to a head.

 

[Butts]

I have to say the way the UK and the US have abandoned the people of Afghanistan over the last couple of months totally disgusts me. I cannot remember the last time I felt so horrified and disgusted by something the UK Government had done.

Perhaps some of your disgust should be centred on the Corrupt Afghans who have sold their own people down the river and pocketed Billions of Dollars in the process ?

Where has all the money gone that was largely provided by the US over the last 20 years ?

They paid for an Afghan Army to be trained and provided with the latest hardware which folded like a pack of cards at the first hint of trouble against a much smaller and less well equipped insurgent force.

Once again the role of Pakistan in harbouring and facilitating the Taliban is being completely ignored, without their patronage they would not have thrived in the way they have.

So the UK and USA are not the only culpable parties.

 

[najaB]

Perhaps some of your disgust should be centred on the Corrupt Afghans who have sold their own people down the river and pocketed Billions of Dollars in the process ?

Where has all the money gone that was largely provided by the US over the last 20 years ?

They paid for an Afghan Army to be trained and provided with the latest hardware which folded like a pack of cards at the first hint of trouble against a much smaller and less well equipped insurgent force.

Once again the role of Pakistan in harbouring and facilitating the Taliban is being completely ignored, without their patronage they would not have thrived in the way they have.

So the UK and USA are not the only culpable parties.

All of that is true, but it is separate and distinct from the shambolic way in which the US (mostly) and other allies handled their final withdrawal.

 

[Sm5]

Everyone had their hands in the pot over Afghanistan, but most of that money stayed close to home.
buying machines, building infrastructure, flying everything in, hiring contractors…

Much of this originated with companies, consultants, contractors in the US and Europe…thats where the big money went… undoubtably many of the UK populace has worked on a project, or made product, that the government has procured and flown out there… everything from Food to Toilets, Vehicles, Buildings, Fridges, Freezers right up to the big stuff like Guns, Arms, Generators, IT hardware, laptops, mobile phones etc..

I doubt beyond Electricity, your average Afghan outside Kabul, has such much change in their personal life or wealth, so they dont care who carries the guns that protects them. Inside Kabul maybe a different story, and the developing warm and fuzzy feeling may have misguided intelligence agencies of what lies outside the city.

Using an analogy, if your working for a company and it goes bust, you search for another job, the Afghans have done exactly that.. the Americans left and the Taliban were hiring. Those wanting an exit are ex-employees of the west., Kabul, becoming a little more developed has residents with a little more to lose, but Afghans themselves chose to align with the Taliban, instead of fighting.. ultimately they havent felt enough of a western lifestyle to fight for it.

If the Taliban doesnt go too over board in Afghanistan, ex-westerners aside, the situation may stablize. If they go extreme, millions will be marching their way through Iran, Turkey and on to Europe, but I dont think its a given.

Mixed in the truly fearful wanting a way out, is undoubtably a large volume of chancers hoping to get lucky, sorting that is the hard part of the job of the forces at Kabul Airport right now. At some point the last flight leaves, and someone has the job of locking the gates and slipping unseen onto the last plane, leaving the rest of the crowds, and everything bought, paid and shipped by various governments for 20 years outside…

Unfortunately, without considerable escalation, the time and manner of that last exit, is really down to the Talibans chosing, not the US’s.

 

[The Ham]

Fair point.

We can perhaps criticise to an extent.

It has to be said though, that if the Afghan army wasn't ready after twenty years of training, it never would be.

Perhaps some of your disgust should be centred on the Corrupt Afghans who have sold their own people down the river and pocketed Billions of Dollars in the process ?

Where has all the money gone that was largely provided by the US over the last 20 years ?

They paid for an Afghan Army to be trained and provided with the latest hardware which folded like a pack of cards at the first hint of trouble against a much smaller and less well equipped insurgent force.

Once again the role of Pakistan in harbouring and facilitating the Taliban is being completely ignored, without their patronage they would not have thrived in the way they have.

So the UK and USA are not the only culpable parties.

Indeed there's been one estimate which puts the Afghan army at circa 50,000 actual soldiers (with police being counted and/or fictional people drawing a salary due to corruption). If that's true (or even if that estimate is half the actual number) then it's no surprise that things moved so fast.

 

[edwin_m]

According to a couple of articles from people who appear to know what they're talking about, in Afghanistan when one side looks like they're getting the upper hand the vast majority of the population and the soldiers change sides so they are less at risk of reprisals, so that faction quite rapidly takes control. It happened when the Taliban first took over, and when the Western-backed factions overthrew them. The fairly fearsome reputation of the Taliban and some of the other factions probably makes it more likely.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

According to a couple of articles from people who appear to know what they're talking about, in Afghanistan when one side looks like they're getting the upper hand the vast majority of the population and the soldiers change sides so they are less at risk of reprisals, so that faction quite rapidly takes control. It happened when the Taliban first took over, and when the Western-backed factions overthrew them. The fairly fearsome reputation of the Taliban and some of the other factions probably makes it more likely.

That makes a lot of sense, and was my suspicion. If true, it makes it even more stupid to have pulled the troops out, since it means that all that was required to keep the Taliban at bay and keep the pro-Western, anti-terrorist, democratic, Government, was to keep enough troops there to give the Government a modest upper hand.