Despite the government's announcement, should HS2 be cancelled?

[Nicholas Lewis]

So that's no further cuts to HS2, sounds like what's in the IRP will proceed

Also commitment to East-West rail though whether that's to Cambridge not clear

What he said was budgets will be protected for next two years and reduced growth in subsequent years but if not indexed link wont cover for inflationary impact so could may see some delays in phasing.

 

[Chester1]

OK I'll eat my words. Glad to hear that but Chancellor must of had to face down those in his own party, or maybe he has that dubious pleasure to come

The Tories have a large majority. The Chancellor can afford to anger backbenchers on HS2 if he thinks the electoral cost of further reductions in its size are too high. He appears to have come to that conclusion.

 

[dosxuk]

OK I'll eat my words. Glad to hear that but Chancellor must of had to face down those in his own party, or maybe he has that dubious pleasure to come

He was very clear that cuts to capital expenditure will not solve the immediate shortfall in budgets - a shot across the bows of the back benchers who want to make a noise but are wilfully (deliberately?) misrepresenting the situation.

 

[Nottingham59]

Chancellor confirming HS2 to Manchester, Northern Powerhouse rail, East West rail and Sizewell C nuclear power all going ahead and part of £600 billion infrastructure plan

(live on TV so no link)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-63591754

"Northern Powerhouse rail and HS2 to go ahead
Hunt goes on to confirm that rail projects will go ahead as planned: the Northern Powerhouse rail, the HS2 and the East West Rail.

"Smart countries build on their long-term commitments rather than discard them," he says.

He says there will be over £600bn of investment over the next five years to connect our country and grow our economy.

This will include the new hospitals programme and gigabit broadband rollout, he says."

EDIT

Chancellor delivers plan for stability, growth and public services

The Chancellor has today (Thursday 17th November) announced his Autumn Statement, aiming to restore stability to the economy, protect high-quality public services and build long-term prosperity for the United Kingdom.

www.gov.uk

"The Chancellor also confirmed commitments to transformative growth plans for our railways including High Speed 2 to Manchester, the Northern Powerhouse Rail core network and East West Rail, along with gigabit broadband rollout."

 

[achmelvic]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-63591754

"Northern Powerhouse rail and HS2 to go ahead
Hunt goes on to confirm that rail projects will go ahead as planned: the Northern Powerhouse rail, the HS2 and the East West Rail.

"Smart countries build on their long-term commitments rather than discard them," he says.

He says there will be over £600bn of investment over the next five years to connect our country and grow our economy.

This will include the new hospitals programme and gigabit broadband rollout, he says."

"the Northern Powerhouse rail, the HS2 and the East West Rail." Amazing English there BBC

 

[HSTEd]

How do you propose to deal with the issues of fitting in stopping and fast services on the Crewe to Manchester route if it has to carry more of the fast services on the London to Manchester route?

Well if you want to go down that route, you could extend the Manchester-Crewe via Styal stoppers to London - be a bit strange but you could use them as a means to soak up demand for low cost travel and reduce the need for faster trains

 

[Nottingham59]

Isn't that why a billions is being spent on noise reduction measures?

I've lived alongside a mainline railway before and it was much better than being next to a motorway or airport.

I'm sure people will get used to it over time, but a high speed train at 360kph will generate around six times as much sound energy as one doing 200kph (125mph). It won't necessarily sound six times as loud, but that's an awful lot of sound energy to be absorbed by noise reduction measures.

 

[Glenn1969]

"the Northern Powerhouse rail, the HS2 and the East West Rail." Amazing English there BBC

Core NPR. Which doesn't include Bradford, Sheffield or most of Yorkshire. And HS2 to Manchester with no mention of Derby or Nottingham

 

[snowball]

In short we have a return to the position of the Johnson government after the interruption of Truss.

 

[Glenn1969]

There was no mention at all of 2b East in Hunt's statement though

 

[Nottingham59]

Core NPR. Which doesn't include Bradford, Sheffield or most of Yorkshire. And HS2 to Manchester with no mention of Derby or Nottingham

Am I right to assume that "Core NPR" does include the proposed new line from Gorton to Marsden?

Or does it mean just NPR Phase 1, which seems to be just the TRU upgrade?

 

[Glenn1969]

Am I right to assume that "Core NPR" does include the proposed new line from Gorton to Marsden?

Or does it mean just NPR Phase 1, which seems to be just the TRU upgrade?

It's not clear whether it's that or just the TRU Upgrades. Unfortunately most of the constraints currently are in the Leeds area and I'm not sure how these are going to be addressed

 

[Bantamzen]

Am I right to assume that "Core NPR" does include the proposed new line from Gorton to Marsden?

Or does it mean just NPR Phase 1, which seems to be just the TRU upgrade?

"Core NPR" equals absolutely nothing, given that at best NPR was a set of vague aspirations driven partly by the various councils with a vested interest in it, and some equally vague assumptions as to where it might be routed. Honestly speaking I suspect the Chancellor probably meant TRU.

 

[Noddy]

Well I for one am glad they are going ahead (even if there is some element of uncertainty at the moment). I firmly believe that once folk see the benefits of HS2 between London, Manchester and Birmingham the misunderstandings and wider nimbyism that plagues the project at the moment will largely vanish, and further high speed developments can happen. Hopefully within my lifetime!!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Well I for one am glad they are going ahead (even if there is some element of uncertainty at the moment). I firmly believe that once folk see the benefits of HS2 between London, Manchester and Birmingham the misunderstandings and wider nimbyism that plagues the project at the moment will largely vanish, and further high speed developments can happen. Hopefully within my lifetime!!

That is exactly my view and I agree with your sentiments.

 

[Glenn1969]

That is exactly my view and I agree with your sentiments.

I would have preferred Wider network NPR to be given priority if they are indeed committed to levelling up

 

[Snow1964]

Am I right to assume that "Core NPR" does include the proposed new line from Gorton to Marsden?

Or does it mean just NPR Phase 1, which seems to be just the TRU upgrade?

Eventually found a definition of Northern Powerhouse rail Core in a House of Commons Library document, dated 25th August 2022

(page 14)

In the plan, the Government confirmed its intention to proceed with a core NPR network between Liverpool and York, in line with TfN’s Option 1 (see Table 1)

And for convenience this is option 1 of table 1

A mixture of new-build high speed line, covering roughly half the route from Liverpool to Leeds, and upgrades to the existing lines into Leeds (via Huddersfield) and Liverpool (via Warrington Bank Quay) for the rest of the route

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9588/CBP-9588.pdf

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thanks for that. "Via Warrington Bank Quay" confirms that it's the Fiddler's Ferry line as I thought. It could I suppose also describe Chat Moss, but that's already full and everyone knows it is, plus going down the 2 track WCML for that section would be a big pathing challenge and a rather long way round so would probably lead to slower, not faster journeys!

Removing fast Liverpool-Manchester trains from Chat Moss would also allow a Merseyrail style electric local service between Liverpool and Manchester Victoria on there. (It was always Victoria traditionally; I never quite understood why the hourly Chat Moss stopper was sent onto Castlefield a while back).

If this is what is happening it seems to be a good value choice which will deliver considerable benefits for an affordable price.

 

[Nottingham59]

Eventually found a definition of Northern Powerhouse rail Core in a House of Commons Library document, dated 25th August 2022

Good. That's more or less what was in the Intergrated Rail Plan (page 100).

"Northern Powerhouse Rail:
what the Government proposes
in the IRP core pipeline:
• between Liverpool and York, to build NPR in line
with the 2019 Option 1 developed by Transport for
the North. This will see:
• 40 miles of newbuild high speed line between
Warrington, Manchester and Yorkshire (to the east of
Standedge tunnels);
• upgraded and electrified conventional line for the rest
of the route;
• significant improvements to the previous
Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU) plans between
Manchester and Leeds, including electrification of the
whole route, digital signalling throughout, significantly
longer sections of three and four-tracking, and
gauge upgrades to allow intermodal container freight
services. This will now form the first phase of NPR;
• electrification of Leeds–York with some sections of
four-tracking;
• upgrades and electrification of the Leeds–Bradford
section of the Calder Valley Line; and
• reinstatement of Warrington Bank Quay low level
station; upgrading and electrifying existing lines
between Warrington and Liverpool; and enhancing
Liverpool Lime Street station. "

 

[Bald Rick]

Its really off-topic for this thread, but basically the government was re-thinking the value of a new alignment. Politically speaking that means shelved. There's more discussion in the NPR threads on speculation section.

(quoted from other thread…)

This is not the case. Government was doing nothing of the sort (If we leave aside a rather rash comment from Ms Truss when she was PM and presumably hadn’t listened to her brief or chose to ignore it).

"Core NPR" equals absolutely nothing, given that at best NPR was a set of vague aspirations driven partly by the various councils with a vested interest in it, and some equally vague assumptions as to where it might be routed. Honestly speaking I suspect the Chancellor probably meant TRU.

This is not correct, as others have evidenced. It is clear what it means.

 

[Glenn1969]

Good. That's more or less what was in the Intergrated Rail Plan (page 100).

"Northern Powerhouse Rail:
what the Government proposes
in the IRP core pipeline:
• between Liverpool and York, to build NPR in line
with the 2019 Option 1 developed by Transport for
the North. This will see:
• 40 miles of newbuild high speed line between
Warrington, Manchester and Yorkshire (to the east of
Standedge tunnels);
• upgraded and electrified conventional line for the rest
of the route;
• significant improvements to the previous
Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU) plans between
Manchester and Leeds, including electrification of the
whole route, digital signalling throughout, significantly
longer sections of three and four-tracking, and
gauge upgrades to allow intermodal container freight
services. This will now form the first phase of NPR;
• electrification of Leeds–York with some sections of
four-tracking;
• upgrades and electrification of the Leeds–Bradford
section of the Calder Valley Line; and
• reinstatement of Warrington Bank Quay low level
station; upgrading and electrifying existing lines
between Warrington and Liverpool; and enhancing
Liverpool Lime Street station. "

but Dewsbury- Leeds- York will still be two track and wiring needs to cover the full Calder Valley Route and Leeds- Sheffield for maximum effect

 

[LUYMun]

I'm entirely in favour of HS2 but high speed trains are extremely loud, even if only briefly. Sound proofing can only do so much

A railway, high speed or not, would be tolerable because at least there'll be a timetable the trains will follow, as well as certain times of no operations. Compare that to a motorway, or a dual carriageway at least, which has the constant sound of tyres all day every day, even from a distance.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Nov 2022 ==

With the published Autumn Statement, I seem to think it's unfortunate that the Government still sides with the "faster services" argument when it is merely a secondary factor. Because of this, HS2 critics will continue to claim the inevitable argument of "it will not save anyone any time" because the Department for Transport says that would be entire point. For those sane enough on this thread to comprehend, HS2 is all about capacity.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1118417/CCS1022065440-001_SECURE_HMT_Autumn_Statement_November_2022_Web_accessible__1_.pdf

The Autumn Statement recommits to the government’s transformative growth plans for our railways. These include East West Rail, core Northern Powerhouse Rail, and High Speed 2 to Manchester. These will provide fast, more reliable services and connect people to new job opportunities.

I take note from Gareth Dennis, railway engineer and advocate for the HS2 project, as I share his disgruntledness whereby the most vocal and influential critics are given a platform to spread false information through the (often naive) press, which only adds further confusion as to HS2's main purpose, as written below. After all, we can't argue with Joe Public for most of the time as not everyone would have - or bother to have - the time to research about the state of the railways. It's often taken as given from one glance of the headline.

HS2 will fail without joined-up thinking and a long-term plan

In the second of a two-part look at HS2, GARETH DENNIS considers the biggest threat that the project faces

garethdennis.medium.com

I’ve already talked about how High Speed 2 represents a vital step-change in capacity for the network. By moving high speed trains onto their own dedicated lines, a huge amount of space is freed for more high density passenger services and, just as critically, more freight.

However, as I also alluded to, this story is simply not being told. Even more dangerously, not enough is being done to realise the potential of this step-change in the halls of government. If neither of these are rectified, there is a very strong chance that HS2 will fail.

I spend an unhealthy amount of time challenging untruths about HS2 on Twitter, but the noisiest voices on that platform aren’t the ones HS2 needs to worry about… Much of the public at large are rightly confused about what the new railway is for and what impact it will have on them. Those in the public eye who support the line often make the wrong arguments in favour of it, and those who oppose it don’t remotely understand its purpose.

Yet HS2 Ltd and, more importantly, their masters at the Department for Transport are convinced that keeping their heads down and fielding as few questions as possible is the best course of action. They could learn something from one of Nigel Harris’ (RAIL Magazine editor) recent editorials:

“‘No comment’ is the most dangerous comment… You can neither set nor control the agenda when you refuse to even engage… You merely hand the microphone to your critics, who then don’t even have to shout you down.”

 

[Energy]

There was no mention at all of 2b East in Hunt's statement though

I'm expecting HS2 to open (especially when it reaches crewe) and there to be much more support for the Leeds bit of 2b once people have ridden the rest of HS2. Looking at the business case 2b added a lot to the cost, the number is big because HS2 would be multiple high speed lines in other countries but it would still be difficult to get through.

I can already imagine "HS3 to Leeds" appearing in a manifesto in many years time...

 

[HSTEd]

A railway, high speed or not, would be tolerable because at least there'll be a timetable the trains will follow, as well as certain times of no operations.

Given the intensity of projected HS2 operations, the fact that the trains will pass every 100 seconds according to a timetable is likely to be little comfort.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Nov 2022 ==

I'm expecting HS2 to open (especially when it reaches crewe) and there to be much more support for the Leeds bit of 2b once people have ridden the rest of HS2. Looking at the business case 2b added a lot to the cost, the number is big because HS2 would be multiple high speed lines in other countries but it would still be difficult to get through.

I can already imagine "HS3 to Leeds" appearing in a manifesto in many years time...

Myself I think the HS2 Eastern branch line is certainly dead north of Nottingham/Derby.

Assuming NPR doesn't get killed at some point in the future, which honestly seems unlikely now it has survived this - there will be a high speed railway to Marsden.

It's hard to see how building to leeds from Nottingham is preferable to just extending the Marsden line, which will be dramatically closer to the objective.

EDIT:
By comparison, it's something 72 miles from East Midlands Parkway to Leeds, going 72 miles via Leeds from Marsden gets you half way from Leeds to Newcastle!
And the line north of Nottingham doesn't even benefit SHeffield that much since even in the original plan Sheffield trains would crawl in from Chesterfield.

 

[LittleAH]

Myself I think the HS2 Eastern branch line is certainly dead north of Nottingham/Derby.

Under the Tories it may be. But a Labour government will no doubt reintroduce it.

 

[AlbertBeale]

And what might I find there exactly? A long standing association with the Green Party in England and Wales, say?

I have no link to or membership of any political party [why, though - are the Greens something awful and right ring?].

If my political activities were to be classified on a left-right spectrum (though that's not the most useful categorisation, I think), most people would classify them as firmly against the extreme right that you link me to. Certainly there's no overlap - from what I've managed to see so far (and there wouldn't be anyway) - between the SB's records of the extreme right and the SB records of me and the sorts of campaigns I've been involved in.

You claim (I have no idea whether it's true, since I'm not in the habit of reading output from the extreme right) that extreme right groups oppose HS2 for some of the same reasons that I'm critical of HS2. So what? There's no logical corollary that therefore I'm linked to those right-wing groups. And to suggest there is such a link is libellous.

People often come to similar policy conclusions though starting from different perspectives. Some very right-wing people supported Brexit for reasons that made sense to them. Some very left-wing people also supported Brexit, for reasons that followed logically from their political worldview. Some people are militant pacifists because of their religious beliefs; some are militant pacifists because of their rationalist and anti-religious beliefs. The world is like that.

To smear by association people you disagree with, simply because some unpleasant people have a similar opinion to those people, is a rather silly and illogical and discreditable way of arguing your case.

I again ask you to apologise for saying that I have links to extreme right-wing organisations. I don't, and you have no evidence to believe I do because there isn't any such evidence.

Some people in the green party of England and Wales have actually written a piece on why HS2 is a good idea from a carbon emissions perspective, and compare it to other projects.

The carbon numbers: what is the full potential of HS2? - Greens4HS2

All transportation infrastructure projects emit CO2 when being built, but only trains earn that CO2 back, because when people switch from high-CO2 modes like cars and planes, the only question is “how long” until it’s all earned back and we start getting gains. Carbon Brief wrote a brilliant...

hs2.green

Suffice it to say, HS2 will reduce emissions, there is uncertainty over how much (as there is around all projections into the future), and from a climate perspective ideally we should be speeding up the construction

I accept that HS2 might reduce overall carbon emissions somewhere down the line. The point is that even optimistic scenarios put that decades away. Meanwhile, in ecological terms, it's part of the problem now - and the situation is critical.

 

[HSTEd]

Under the Tories it may be. But a Labour government will no doubt reintroduce it.

In a world where NPR will reach Marsden, what reason would they have to build a second high speed line to Leeds (when one has already got within 25 miles), other than because the Tories said not to?

That's a lot of money to spend to get one over on the Conservative party

 

[LittleAH]

but Dewsbury- Leeds- York will still be two track and wiring needs to cover the full Calder Valley Route and Leeds- Sheffield for maximum effect

There's supposedly going to be three tracking between Leeds - York.

In a world where NPR will reach Marsden, what reason would they have to build a second high speed line to Leeds (when one has already got within 25 miles), other than because the Tories said not to?

Because the capacity benefits aren't released as they would've been with a proper eastern leg. And the Marsden - Manchester route will not be a high speed line.

I again ask you to apologise for saying that I have links to extreme right-wing organisations. I don't, and you have no evidence to believe I do because there isn't any such evidence.

The comment was saying you were using the rhetoric the right wing, oil lobby think tanks also use (like the IEA). And you were.

 

[Trainbike46]

I accept that HS2 might reduce overall carbon emissions somewhere down the line. The point is that even optimistic scenarios put that decades away. Meanwhile, in ecological terms, it's part of the problem now - and the situation is critical.

I fully agree the climate crisis is critical, and carbon emissions need to go down fast. That means using all levers available to reduce emissions, including in transport.
But that is the point. HS2 emissions are actually relatively tiny and HS2 can and should play a big role in reducing UK transport emissions.

And looking at transport emissions more broadly, there's two things we can do to get them down quickly:
- Less Transport (so less people/goods moving, or over shorter distances)
- Change transport over to more sustainable modes, moving them to the most sustainable mode suitable for the specific transport needs (Electric car, lorry, van / Electric bus, tram, metro / the Railway, remember the electric railway is by far the most sustainable mode out there)

I think both of these are necessary to some extend. However, in order to achieve the second one, it is essential that the railway capacity increases. So if we weren't building HS2, how will we shift transport to more sustainable modes? The only realistic answer to that question is we won't. And we really can't afford that in the climate crisis.

And the upfront emissions do matter, which is why HS2 has taken a range of steps to reduce the emissions from construction, as reported upthread.

The upfront emissions argument can be dangerous: all things that are essential to fighting the climate crisis have upfront emissions (think solar panels, wind turbines, home insulation), but if that prevented us from us from deploying them, then our emissions wouldn't drop. So we need to consider what the best options are to reduce both operational and upfront emissions, and HS2 is a key part of our steps to reduce emissions from transport

 

[HSTEd]

Because the capacity benefits aren't released as they would've been with a proper eastern leg. And the Marsden - Manchester route will not be a high speed line.

It's highly unlikely to be engineered for much under 250km/h, which makes it comparable to much of the proposed Eastern Leg! And in case the section between Manchester and Marsden will be short enough not to seriously impact journey times end-to-end. Crossing 25km at 320km/h rather than 250km/h saves less than 90 seconds.

There are comparatively few additional capacity benefits [indeed I struggle to think of any at all] from building the Nottingham-Leeds section over the Marsden solution, capacity via Manchester is likely to be ample for a long time, and the cost will be a tiny fraction of what it would be otherwise.