Does the Government know how people are behaving

[CaptainHaddock]

We saw similar numbers on the late-May Bank Holiday, didn't we?

We did and there was no spike in new infections in the following days. Let's be honest, you're not going to catch the virus on a beach!

 

[adc82140]

Beat me to it. Remember the fuss made about beaches in Devon and Cornwall mid May? Remember the fuss about VE Day? None of that made a difference.

 

[bramling]

We did and there was no spike in new infections in the following days. Let's be honest, you're not going to catch the virus on a beach!

As I posted originally, I'm not sure infections is the primary issue (although it isn't something which should be being forgotten). It is the negative effect on the local infrastructure and people. It's not like mass beach crowding is likely to be delivering much economic benefit to these places at this time, so there isn't even much of a case to say there may be positives which outweigh the negatives.

 

[adc82140]

To put it bluntly, if you live near a honeypot location, expect the crowds. I Iive in the New Forest. I don't resent the tourists. I knew when I moved here that the roads would be busy in the summer.

 

[mmh]

As I posted originally, I'm not sure infections is the primary issue (although it isn't something which should be being forgotten). It is the negative effect on the local infrastructure and people. It's not like mass beach crowding is likely to be delivering much economic benefit to these places at this time, so there isn't even much of a case to say there may be positives which outweigh the negatives.

On a far far smaller scale over the past few weeks visitors to our beaches and waterfronts here in north Wales have noticeably increased, with it being clear many are not local. In parallel, some takeaway cafes and kiosks opened which had been closed throughout. The visitors are definitely an economic positive here. The worry is it's too little, too late.

 

[bramling]

On a far far smaller scale over the past few weeks visitors to our beaches and waterfronts here in north Wales have noticeably increased, with it being clear many are not local. In parallel, some takeaway cafes and kiosks opened which had been closed throughout. The visitors are definitely an economic positive here. The worry is it's too little, too late.

I think the key there is "on a far far smaller scale".

There's little value in being swamped and then running out of stock, for example.

 

[Bletchleyite]

People thought there would be a spike following VE Day, then the fine weather weekends with places like Durdle Dor and other beaches packed out and then came the BLM demonstrations but it didn't happen.

It would appear that transmission outside is negligible pretty much regardless of the situation - otherwise those situations would have caused spikes, and they haven't.

 

[Cardiff123]

In order for the pandemic to end, we need to reach a state of herd immunity, this is when a sufficient % of the population are immune to the point where transmission falls and the virus dies out in the community. For this virus, this is estimated to be 60%, and the current estimate for the % of the population who have the virus is 5%. We cannot possibly eliminate this virus, so driving cases down essentially means the pandemic will last longer as it will take longer for the virus to spread through the population before it achieves herd immunity.

On top of this, the damage to businesses that the lockdown is causing, the damage to mental health and the economy this is causing, and the deaths from other causes must be considered.

We cannot stay in a state of fear forever where a day out to the beach is declared a local emergency.

'Herd immunity' by letting the virus spread through the population is a fallacy. There's absolutely zero proof at the moment that people can't get the virus twice, or three, four, or five times. There have been numerous cases around the world of people testing positive for the virus twice, after initially recovering from it. Even if people get immunity initially, the level of immunity could vary from person to person, and no one knows how long immunity will last. And there's also the long term health implications for people who've recovered from the virus. Formerly super fit and healthy people are reporting suffering crippling fatigue and breathlessness months after being infected, and scarring of the lungs could last for life. Letting the virus run unchecked through the population is beyond irresponsible. Herd immunity will only truly be achieved by an strong and effective vaccine.

And people who say 'well the BLM protests happened, VE Day happened' these were all outdoor gatherings in hot and sunny weather. It's well known the virus is quickly destroyed by heat and light. My initial post about the beach gatherings today is about the fact that the UK/Westminster government is letting people use their 'common sense' from now on. The images from beaches today show the vast majority of the public do not possess common sense. It's when indoor gatherings are allowed that the virus will start spreading again, especially into the autumn and winter. The 1m+ rule (whatever that means) will quickly be forgotten, especially where alcohol is involved. Pubs will become virus hotspots.

So my answer to this thread is 'yes', the government does know how people behave, and it's ready to abdicate responsibility for it's decision making as soon as cases start rising again. Can anyone point out an example to me of when the UK government has admitted it's mistakes over the last 4 months? There's been plenty of them to choose from.

 

[MikeWM]

There's absolutely zero proof at the moment that people can't get the virus twice, or three, four, or five times.

There's a lot of people who have had it. No-one has been found to have had it twice. That's not *proof*, but it is a good indicator.

There have been numerous cases around the world of people testing positive for the virus twice, after initially recovering from it.

In each supposed case I've seen, that was due to an issue with the tests.

Herd immunity will only truly be achieved by an strong and effective vaccine.

If you think immunity doesn't last long enough that people have had the thing twice already, than a vaccine *won't work* either.

We've managed to develop herd immunity to all manner of things without needing a vaccine. It may or may not be desirable, but that doesn't mean it is impossible.

Can anyone point out an example to me of when the UK government has admitted it's mistakes over the last 4 months? There's been plenty of them to choose from.

That I would agree with. They haven't even apologised for their disastrous care home policy.

 

[adc82140]

@Cardiff123: No. The double positive testing was down to false negatives during people's recovery. They simply took a while to recover, and incorrectly tested negative during this time. There have been no recorded cases worldwide of any second infections. The risk of a second infection is purely hypothetical in the absence of solid evidence to the contrary.

 

[Cardiff123]

@Cardiff123: No. The double positive testing was down to false negatives during people's recovery. They simply took a while to recover, and incorrectly tested negative during this time. There have been no recorded cases worldwide of any second infections. The risk of a second infection is purely hypothetical in the absence of solid evidence to the contrary.

There's no evidence either way. Who's to say if we go into a second wave people won't be infected again?
This is a totally new virus to science. A lot is still being learnt about it. To say herd immunity can be achieved by letting the virus spread unchecked through the population is false.
Initially scientists were saying that healthy people would only get a mild illness and then fully recover. Months later, many formerly healthy people have still not fully recovered, and are left with lasting health problems, despite getting over the initial infection.

 

[alex397]

For those that think we should just use ‘common sense’ in regards to coronavirus, the scenes from the beaches of the South Coast over the last couple of days show that ‘common sense’ isn’t very common.

 

[Domh245]

There's no evidence either way. Who's to say if we go into a second wave people won't be infected again?
This is a totally new virus to science. A lot is still being learnt about it. To say herd immunity can be achieved by letting the virus spread unchecked through the population is false.
Initially scientists were saying that healthy people would only get a mild illness and then fully recover. Months later, many formerly healthy people have still not fully recovered, and are left with lasting health problems, despite getting over the initial infection.

It may be a 'totally new virus' but it is fundamentally still a virus, not too dissimilar to many other coronaviruses that have been been in circulation in the past (SARS, MERS, [some] common colds) - if this virus behaves in completely new and unexpected ways in terms of transmission/infection mechanisms, it'd really be a surprise.

The only reason the WHO still push the "there's no guarantee of immunity" line is because they haven't been able to conclusively prove one way of the other yet, something that because of the nature of infections and ethical concerns about deliberate exposure will take a while to prove. The best thing to do is take the existing body of understanding on virus behaviour and use that to make best case estimates - after all, that's what Prof Ferguson did!

 

[mmh]

To say herd immunity can be achieved by letting the virus spread unchecked through the population is false.

The important thing here is that if herd immunity isn't possible, then neither is a vaccine. In that case there is no option other than to get used to living with it. Perhaps it will die out of it's own accord, perhaps it won't but it's really no different to anything else we have no cure for.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The important thing here is that if herd immunity isn't possible, then neither is a vaccine. In that case there is no option other than to get used to living with it. Perhaps it will die out of it's own accord, perhaps it won't but it's really no different to anything else we have no cure for.

What it's done is chucked us back about 100 years in medical terms. Maybe we should just learn to accept that.

 

[HSTEd]

There's no evidence either way. Who's to say if we go into a second wave people won't be infected again?

Because we would have expected to see such cases en masse by now!

Although such a lack of cases does not prove conclusively that such a reinfection is impossible, it indicates that it is not likely.

This is a totally new virus to science. A lot is still being learnt about it. To say herd immunity can be achieved by letting the virus spread unchecked through the population is false.
Initially scientists were saying that healthy people would only get a mild illness and then fully recover. Months later, many formerly healthy people have still not fully recovered, and are left with lasting health problems, despite getting over the initial infection.

"Many" - probably respresents a small fraction of the total number of people infected.
This virus exists, we have to accept that it is exists, maintianing eternal lockdown in an attempt to deny reality is not a practical suggestion.

 

[mmh]

What it's done is chucked us back about 100 years in medical terms. Maybe we should just learn to accept that.

I'd agree with you there in terms of the amount of treatable disease we are not treating as a result of our reaction to it. Far too little is said by politicians of all colours about getting the health service back up and running properly. I don't think it's far fetched to imagine we have a big problem coming there.

 

[MikeWM]

What it's done is chucked us back about 100 years in medical terms. Maybe we should just learn to accept that.

We're heading that way with bacterial resistance. Which will accelerate with people using hand sanitiser 700 times a day.

 

[bramling]

I'd agree with you there in terms of the amount of treatable disease we are not treating as a result of our reaction to it. Far too little is said by politicians of all colours about getting the health service back up and running properly. I don't think it's far fetched to imagine we have a big problem coming there.

An interesting question is to what extent the government are preparing for the fact that, yes, we may very well just have to accept and live with this virus for the foreseeable future, coupled with a return to as much normality as we can.

Is the next thing going to be we find that nothing has been done within the NHS to provide "business as usual" Covid care alongside a normal level of functioning for everything else?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Because we would have expected to see such cases en masse by now!

Although such a lack of cases does not prove conclusively that such a reinfection is impossible, it indicates that it is not likely.

One thing we really don't know is if people become infected a second time but asymptomatically. I recall reading one of the vaccine schemes has discovered that their vaccine causes this rather than true immunity.

 

[mmh]

An interesting question is to what extent the government are preparing for the fact that, yes, we may very well just have to accept and live with this virus for the foreseeable future, coupled with a return to as much normality as we can.

Is the next thing going to be we find that nothing has been done within the NHS to provide "business as usual" Covid care alongside a normal level of functioning for everything else?

Almost certainly, I'd say. What to do with all those field hospitals is a big question too. I don't know the situation in England, but in Wales the leases on most of the 17 (yes, 17, incredible) field hospitals which have had fewer than 50 patients in total are about to run out.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Almost certainly, I'd say. What to do with all those field hospitals is a big question too. I don't know the situation in England, but in Wales the leases on most of the 17 (yes, 17, incredible) field hospitals which have had fewer than 50 patients in total are about to run out.

I think it would be sensible to extend them for at least 12 months. The cost is a pittance compared with things like the furlough scheme, and it's not like the likes of Excel, the NEC or the GMEx are going to be hosting big events any time soon.

 

[DelayRepay]

That crowd on the beach would not be a surprise if we had weather like this on a weekend or Bank Holiday. The only thing that's unusual is that it's happened on a weekday. I don't even think that's 100% down to the Furlough scheme - I wasn't furloughed but have hardly taken any annual leave yet this year. Most of my team are now taking long weekends etc. to use it up while we have nice weather and now there are a few more options open to us in terms of passing time.

The crowd on the beach will presumably not cause a spike in Bournemouth, because if there are infections the majority of people will be from elsewhere.

It is about personal choices. Apart from a very small number of employees, nobody is being forced to go to the beach and I think after months of constant news coverage, everyone understands that such a visit is not completely without risk.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is about personal choices. Apart from a very small number of employees, nobody is being forced to go to the beach and I think after months of constant news coverage, everyone understands that such a visit is not completely without risk.

But also that:-
- The Durdle Door incident did not cause a peak
- The "Black Lives Matter" protests did not cause a peak
- People in parks in London did not cause a peak
Etc

It very much seems that spread outdoors is negligible, and it's indoors that we have to worry about. So, bluntly, who cares? I can't see why I'd want to cram myself into a packed beach like that, and I have no intention of doing so, but the sanctimonious shouting of "Covidiot" over this is just unhelpful and has been all along. Let's just enjoy a great British outdoor summer, as when the weather turns it's going to be a bit grim.

 

[Cardiff123]

If immunity cannot be acquired through a vaccine or herd immunity, we have to move to attempt to eliminate the virus and get cases as close to zero as possible.

Scotland is almost there with this. New Zealand has shown that this can be done, with a strict lockdown for a few months and a highly effective, well run and fully resourced track, trace and isolate program in place. Of course after a deacde of systematic cuts to the UK's public health infratsructure, our track and trace system pales in comparison to New Zealand's, and the less said about our 'world beating' track and trace app the better.

 

[underbank]

It would appear that transmission outside is negligible pretty much regardless of the situation - otherwise those situations would have caused spikes, and they haven't.

Or perhaps there were no spikes because few, if any, of those attending were infectious, after several weeks of lockdown, when cases in the community were low. If no one was contagious at that time, then there'd be no spreading. But when numbers of infectious increase again, the risk of it being spread in busy places is clearly a lot higher.

 

[mmh]

We did and there was no spike in new infections in the following days. Let's be honest, you're not going to catch the virus on a beach!

I think there's an element of puritanism, encouraged by the press, which is a factor in beaches being a target. People can't be taking the virus seriously enough if they're enjoying themselves.

And people who say 'well the BLM protests happened, VE Day happened' these were all outdoor gatherings in hot and sunny weather. It's well known the virus is quickly destroyed by heat and light. My initial post about the beach gatherings today is about the fact that the UK/Westminster government is letting people use their 'common sense' from now on. The images from beaches today show the vast majority of the public do not possess common sense. It's when indoor gatherings are allowed that the virus will start spreading again, especially into the autumn and winter. The 1m+ rule (whatever that means) will quickly be forgotten, especially where alcohol is involved. Pubs will become virus hotspots.

There's a bit of a contradiction there. If it's well known that heat and light kill the virus, how can it be against common sense to go to the beach on the hottest and sunniest day of the year? What's dangerous or irresponsible about it?

Again I think there's a puritanical streak behind some pronouncements on pubs. For example, in Northern Ireland pubs will only be allowed to serve customers inside who are sitting eating. Customers only drinking will be allowed outside. The world's first virus which targets people based on whether or not they're sitting or standing, drinking or eating.

It's interesting there hasn't been a single news story of infected supermarket staff.

 

[Cardiff123]

I think there's an element of puritanism, encouraged by the press, which is a factor in beaches being a target. People can't be taking the virus seriously enough if they're enjoying themselves.



There's a bit of a contradiction there. If it's well known that heat and light kill the virus, how can it be against common sense to go to the beach on the hottest and sunniest day of the year? What's dangerous or irresponsible about it?

Again I think there's a puritanical streak behind some pronouncements on pubs. For example, in Northern Ireland pubs will only be allowed to serve customers inside who are sitting eating. Customers only drinking will be allowed outside. The world's first virus which targets people based on whether or not they're sitting or standing, drinking or eating.

It's interesting there hasn't been a single news story of infected supermarket staff.

So in the autumn/winter, people will be happy to sit outside in wind/cold/pouring rain to have a drink? Of course not, everyone then will be inside.

And how many supermarket staff are in close contact with a member of the public to have a long conversation for 15 minutes more?

 

[bramling]

If immunity cannot be acquired through a vaccine or herd immunity, we have to move to attempt to eliminate the virus and get cases as close to zero as possible.

Scotland is almost there with this. New Zealand has shown that this can be done, with a strict lockdown for a few months and a highly effective, well run and fully resourced track, trace and isolate program in place. Of course after a deacde of systematic cuts to the UK's public health infratsructure, our track and trace system pales in comparison to New Zealand's, and the less said about our 'world beating' track and trace app the better.

The problem with that is that even if we could eliminate it (and as you say other countries do seem to have, just about, managed it), this will only work medium-term if the whole world does the same, or we keep our borders robustly closed / controlled for as long as there’s cases elsewhere in the world, which could be forever. Neither of these scenarios appears viable.

 

[HSTEd]

If immunity cannot be acquired through a vaccine or herd immunity, we have to move to attempt to eliminate the virus and get cases as close to zero as possible.

Even assuming this is practical, it would require eternal quarantines.
A trading economy like ours could never survive that.

Scotland is almost there with this. New Zealand has shown that this can be done, with a strict lockdown for a few months and a highly effective, well run and fully resourced track, trace and isolate program in place. Of course after a deacde of systematic cuts to the UK's public health infratsructure, our track and trace system pales in comparison to New Zealand's, and the less said about our 'world beating' track and trace app the better.

As much as Sturgeon would love a border wall complete with guard towers and barbed wire, Scotland is not going to be able to maintain zero cases if anywhere else in the UK has them.
New Zealand is an isolated agrarian economy at the end of the world, they got very lucky in that there caseload was extremely small and even there maintaining zero cases is proving to be a challenge.
Worth noting that Australia and New Zealand never had endemic smallpox!

That was never feasible in the UK, we almost certainly got hit hard before we even knew what was happening.