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East Coast Trains: What are your hopes, fears and predictions?

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Aictos

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No, just no.

There is a reason why coaches are used. Firstly, it is possible for passengers to sleep on coaches with the lights turned down. This isn't done on a train. Coaches can divert for engineering closures.

A coach is somewhat cheaper to run for the amount of custom on offer. The railway is not going to make money with the kind of offering you propose.

East Coast Trains is taking on airlines by all accounts, not coaches.


No, there are no such electric locos and rakes of coaches suitable.
Class 91s and Mk4s could have been cascaded from LNER but they've been scrapped, used elsewhere, still in use for Leeds LNER services etc which as a 6 or 7 car formation would certainly no doubt shift but that's for speculation.
 
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Bletchleyite

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I'll admit that I'm surprised that no-one has tried running slower all standard class trains with surplus rolling stock at night to take on the low cost coach market. I never expected such modern trains for a low cost operator.

Look at easyJet and Ryanair - a simple, modern, homogeneous fleet brings economies of operation, and being able to lease rather than buy eases doing so.
 

Bald Rick

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Not being an expert on rail operations - would it be possible to bring in extra stock for surge capacity?

I'll admit that I'm surprised that no-one has tried running slower all standard class trains with surplus rolling stock at night to take on the low cost coach market. I never expected such modern trains for a low cost operator.

A road coach costs very much less to operate than a train, even a short one.
 

Bald Rick

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And if you want an overnight seated train from London to Scotland, there already is one.

Indeed, and one that is very, very heavily subsidised (and still more expensive than the coach).

There simply isn’t a large enough market for overnight seats (or even overnight travel) London - Scotland to make it remotely worthwhile for an OA operator.
 

357

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Firstly, it is possible for passengers to sleep on coaches with the lights turned down. This isn't done on a train.
Not done at the moment - but it does not mean it can't be done.

Maybe this is why some people seem to dislike East Coast, they are doing things differently.

Anyone remember when low cost airlines were disliked for doing things differently?
 

JonathanH

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Not done at the moment - but it does not mean it can't be done.
Huh? If it is not possible to turn the lights down to near darkness on a dedicated night train (eg the Caledonian Sleeper) then it isn't going to happen on any other service.

I have no dislike of East Coast Trains. The fact is that there isn't demand for seated overnight travel on "day" trains or indeed "night" trains and even if there was, it isn't 'cheap' to provide. East Coast Trains are going to be able to provide their service at the lowest cost if they are able to fill their trains at times when people want to travel, not by running empty trains overnight.
 

Kieran1990

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I make it 4 out of 5 sets required daily. The first departure from London doesn't make the second departure from Edinburgh and the first off Edinburgh just misses the second off London, which means they need two London (off Bounds Green) starters and two Edinburgh (off Craigentinny) starters.
Oops my bad there, doubtful there will ever be all 5 out. I must start working diagrams/ allocations out on pen and paper instead of in my head
 

takno

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Huh? If it is not possible to turn the lights down to near darkness on a dedicated night train (eg the Caledonian Sleeper) then it isn't going to happen on any other service.

I have no dislike of East Coast Trains. The fact is that there isn't demand for seated overnight travel on "day" trains or indeed "night" trains and even if there was, it isn't 'cheap' to provide. East Coast Trains are going to be able to provide their service at the lowest cost if they are able to fill their trains at times when people want to travel, not by running empty trains overnight.
Caledonian Sleeper are a new entrant to the industry from an outsourcing company who aren't exactly notorious for thinking outside the box. They appear not to have tried to negotiate an exemption from a number of inane safety rules which spoil their service in a number of ways. We have some pretty silly safety rules in this country, but a lot of them are up for negotiation if you can demonstrate that the risk has been mitigated. You can only do that if you care enough to try though. I wouldn't assume that the failure of Caledonian to negotiate an exemption means that an exemption cannot be negotiated
 

southern442

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I'll admit that I'm surprised that no-one has tried running slower all standard class trains with surplus rolling stock at night to take on the low cost coach market. I never expected such modern trains for a low cost operator.
I believe this is more of a thing in Europe, where their sleeper trains have seated coaches which are much cheaper. In our case, the Caledonian sleeper's seated coaches are still rather pricey I believe, and East Coast Trains is more targeting low-cost airlines, and perhaps people who would use the coach but don't mind paying a little extra for the speed increase.

As a coach user out of necessity rather than out of pleasure, I am all for slower, lower spec and overnight train services that are cheaper than regular intercity trains - and I think there would be a market in some areas for something like this.
 

JonathanH

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Caledonian Sleeper are a new entrant to the industry from an outsourcing company who aren't exactly notorious for thinking outside the box. They appear not to have tried to negotiate an exemption from a number of inane safety rules which spoil their service in a number of ways. We have some pretty silly safety rules in this country, but a lot of them are up for negotiation if you can demonstrate that the risk has been mitigated. You can only do that if you care enough to try though. I wouldn't assume that the failure of Caledonian to negotiate an exemption means that an exemption cannot be negotiated
If there are regulations, they are not negotiable, and they apply to new build rolling stock. Caledonian Sleeper will have wanted the best travelling experience for its customers but have to meet the requirements of regulations / safety standards. I don't think we can suggest that any other operator is able to negotiate dimmed lights to the level used on road coaches and planes.
 

southern442

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If there are regulations, they are not negotiable, and they apply to new build rolling stock. Caledonian Sleeper will have wanted the best travelling experience for its customers but have to meet the requirements of regulations / safety standards. I don't think we can suggest that any other operator is able to negotiate dimmed lights to the level used on road coaches and planes.
Not a direct comparison, but yellow panels are an example of a safety rule that has been changed. Again I know this wasn't one company who decided to 'negotiate' but my point is rather that there is scope for things to be changed.

As an aside, I personally wouldn't need lights to be a coach/plane level of dim on a train, nor would I want them to be. But it would be nice if trains could have a slightly duller-lit night time ambience.
 

JonathanH

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people who would use the coach but don't mind paying a little extra for the speed increase
Who is going to get on a train at 2330 to be turfed out of the train at 0400 in Edinburgh[1]. 2300 for a 0700 arrival on a coach or the sleeper is much more palatable.

As a coach user out of necessity rather than out of pleasure, I am all for slower, lower spec and overnight train services that are cheaper than regular intercity trains - and I think there would be a market in some areas for something like this.
How many times does it have to be mentioned that overnight railway operation is not going to be cheaper than daytime trains? There is already a train service available which is competitive fares-wise with "regular intercity trains" and it requires a huge subsidy.

[1] Obviously this happens if you are going to Fort William but that is different.
 

southern442

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Who is going to get on a train at 2330 to be turfed out of the train at 0400 in Edinburgh[1]. 2300 for a 0700 arrival on a coach or the sleeper is much more palatable.
You've misread what I said. Here I was talking about East Coast Trains's market, not about overnight services.

If there was to be an overnight service, as has been said before, it would be much slower, like the sleeper.

How many times does it have to be mentioned that overnight railway operation is not going to be cheaper than daytime trains?
Again you have misinterpreted what I have said. By 'cheaper' I meant to the customer. The type of service I am talking about would be comparable to LNWR's London to Liverpool service or Southern's London to Southampton. I appreciate that demand for an overnight service would be low, but I am making a more general point about a slower lower spec service to compete with the intercity one, as in the two examples I have provided.

There is already a train service available which is competitive fares-wise with "regular intercity trains" and it requires a huge subsidy.
I was not aware of the fact that the sleeper seating coaches are subsidized, nor was I aware of the fact that they were cheaper. I had actually heard somewhere that they were usually more expensive, but what you are saying about it being cheaper makes a lot more sense to me. If this is the case then that is certainly the type of service that I am after, and there would be no need to run a separate service on its own.

Obviously this happens if you are going to Fort William but that is different
Just out of interest, do they actually kick Fort William people out at Edinburgh? I haven't used the sleeper for a while.
 

JonathanH

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Just out of interest, do they actually kick Fort William people out at Edinburgh? I haven't used the sleeper for a while.
Yes, the operating arrangement is that on arrival at Edinburgh, the portion shunting is done and, at around 4.30am, Fort William seated passengers walk down the platform from the Aberdeen seats to the Fort William train.

You've misread what I said. Here I was talking about East Coast Trains's market, not about overnight services.

If there was to be an overnight service, as has been said before, it would be much slower, like the sleeper.
Sorry, I think I took the discussion to be about overnight services as that was where it was at the point you made your point.

There is a small market for overnight travel between London, Newcastle and Scotland which East Coast Trains could be part of. Until March 2020, I made a lot of overnight travel by coach and train. I contend that it is not a market which East Coast Trains have any chance at all of making money in.

Maybe there are certain times of year when they could but they aren't going to be able to do so with the lights turned down and their trains aren't going to have reclining seats because they are configured for daytime travel. I appreciate that, like the Glasgow to Edinburgh coaches, they could run for the short period of Edinburgh festival, for example. Year round, it just isn't going to be worth their while.

Again you have misinterpreted what I have said. By 'cheaper' I meant to the customer. The type of service I am talking about would be comparable to LNWR's London to Liverpool service or Southern's London to Southampton. I appreciate that demand for an overnight service would be low, but I am making a more general point about a slower lower spec service to compete with the intercity one, as in the two examples I have provided.
Cheaper to the customer means less revenue for the organisation providing the service.

Both the examples you mention make their money, if we assume they make money, by stringing together short distance capacity throughout the day on the relevant routes and have done so running fairly short trains to build the market. However, as 'Ianno87' wrote in another thread today, 'to some extent TOC-only fares are basically abstraction of revenue from one TOC to another. When it's now all ultimately the same DfT bottom line, that now makes less sense. There's only a few examples where it could be argued such fares actually generate more demand revenue / overall in a net industry sense.' There is a limit as to whether a slower lower-spec service on a route with a full service operator is actually a good use of paths.

In this thread, and others discussing the timetabling of the East Coast Trains service, it has been mentioned that it is shame their paths aren't quicker from a competitive point of view.

I was not aware of the fact that the sleeper seating coaches are subsidized, nor was I aware of the fact that they were cheaper. I had actually heard somewhere that they were usually more expensive, but what you are saying about it being cheaper makes a lot more sense to me. If this is the case then that is certainly the type of service that I am after, and there would be no need to run a separate service on its own.
Clearly, there isn't a separate subsidy for sleeper seating coaches from the subsidy for providing berths. While there are cheaper fares than £50 for travel between London and Scotland on day trains, I would have thought that, on average, £50 is broadly the average fare paid. That is roughly what the seated sleeper was pitched at, and the Caledonian Sleeper required a large subsidy even before March 2020.

If the discussion is about East Coast Trains operating overnight, then I don't think they are going to be able to offer cheaper fares just because they run an extra service overnight (and neither should we expect them to).

If the discussion is about the daytime services operated by East Coast Trains, then I wish them luck with their earlier first and later last services, but don't see why we should be expecting them to offer substantially cheaper fares than LNER.
 

Bald Rick

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I was not aware of the fact that the sleeper seating coaches are subsidized, nor was I aware of the fact that they were cheaper. I had actually heard somewhere that they were usually more expensive, but what you are saying about it being cheaper makes a lot more sense to me. If this is the case then that is certainly the type of service that I am after, and there would be no need to run a separate service on its own.

The Caledonian sleeper operation is subsidised to the tune of between £100 and £200 per single passenger trip (pre Covid) depending on you preferred method of allocating railway costs. Even at £100, it is clearly a large subsidy. This is for all passenger trips: in the beds, in the seats, and for where the service provides ‘domestic’ trips on the West Highland and Highland lines.

The seated car can accommodate 31 people, while most of the sleeping cars can accommodate 20, although in practice the average will be lower, say 15. While the typical fare for the seats is around £60, for a bed it is around £150. Doing the maths, the seats are subsidised more than the beds (which I hadn’t realised!)

The sleeper is an expensive operation of course, very high staffing costs, low stock utilisation. However the market is small. I’m not sure how many overnight road coaches there are London to Scotland central Belt, but I bet that it’s not more than 3 or 4. Add 62 seated passengers on the sleeper, and you wouldn’t half fill a 5 car Class 803 doing London - Edinburgh - Glasgow.
 

takno

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£150 is also more than an early morning or late evening London - Scotland flight whenever I've checked, even to the "premium" LCY.
LCY isn't a premium. In most cases the price difference between that and Luton will be eaten up by the cost of getting from the airport into London. Heathrow is usually the expensive option.
 

Bald Rick

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I should have said £150 is roughly the average fare for a bed. If two travel together, the average is a bit less, if you travel on your own you’re looking at £200 as an average fare.
 

Energy

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Caledonian Sleeper are a new entrant to the industry from an outsourcing company who aren't exactly notorious for thinking outside the box.
Serco aren't new to the industry, they've been running Merseyrail since 2003 and run the pre-Arriva Northern, although admitadly both of them were done in a 50/50 partnership with Abellio.

Either way it is difficult to get the sleeper to be cheap, trains are expensive to run and sleeper trains aren't that space efficient with passengers.
 

Bletchleyite

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The seated car can accommodate 31 people, while most of the sleeping cars can accommodate 20, although in practice the average will be lower, say 15. While the typical fare for the seats is around £60, for a bed it is around £150. Doing the maths, the seats are subsidised more than the beds (which I hadn’t realised!)

That doesn't really work, because the seated car is a half-brake. If it was a full vehicle it would, using traditional First Class layout, accommodate about 48, though with a mostly non aligned airline seat layout as it has you would probably get 51 (though maybe back down to 48 due to an accessible bog?)
 

Bald Rick

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Serco aren't new to the industry, they've been running Merseyrail since 2003 and run the pre-Arriva Northern, although admitadly both of them were done in a 50/50 partnership with Abellio.

Either way it is difficult to get the sleeper to be cheap, trains are expensive to run and sleeper trains aren't that space efficient with passengers.

Notably, the M.D. of Serco Rail has nearly 30 years Rail experience, and the Chairman nearly 40. Hardly ‘new entrants’ to the industry.
 

southern442

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Sorry, I think I took the discussion to be about overnight services as that was where it was at the point you made your point.

There is a small market for overnight travel between London, Newcastle and Scotland which East Coast Trains could be part of. Until March 2020, I made a lot of overnight travel by coach and train. I contend that it is not a market which East Coast Trains have any chance at all of making money in.

Maybe there are certain times of year when they could but they aren't going to be able to do so with the lights turned down and their trains aren't going to have reclining seats because they are configured for daytime travel. I appreciate that, like the Glasgow to Edinburgh coaches, they could run for the short period of Edinburgh festival, for example. Year round, it just isn't going to be worth their while.
Seasonal services could be something of interest. I imagine a lot of people use London-Scotland coaches around Edinburgh Fringe time etc, so perhaps there is some market there.
Cheaper to the customer means less revenue for the organisation providing the service.

Both the examples you mention make their money, if we assume they make money, by stringing together short distance capacity throughout the day on the relevant routes and have done so running fairly short trains to build the market. However, as 'Ianno87' wrote in another thread today, 'to some extent TOC-only fares are basically abstraction of revenue from one TOC to another. When it's now all ultimately the same DfT bottom line, that now makes less sense. There's only a few examples where it could be argued such fares actually generate more demand revenue / overall in a net industry sense.' There is a limit as to whether a slower lower-spec service on a route with a full service operator is actually a good use of paths.

In this thread, and others discussing the timetabling of the East Coast Trains service, it has been mentioned that it is shame their paths aren't quicker from a competitive point of view.
Perhaps post-HS2 this might happen. I understand that HS2 fares are meant to be the same prices as the intercity services they replace (again my trust in the DfT is low enough that I have room for doubt) so in that case there might be scope for a competitive service along the WCML.

In my opinion, the existence of these slower cheaper service is only justified by how high regular prices are. If intercity fares could actually be more reasonable then I'd have no desire to sit on a 350 for 4 hours from London to Liverpool!
 

Bletchleyite

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In my opinion, the existence of these slower cheaper service is only justified by how high regular prices are. If intercity fares could actually be more reasonable then I'd have no desire to sit on a 350 for 4 hours from London to Liverpool!

I think that can depend. I've used LNR services on an Any Permitted ticket before - a 350 (other than /2) is more comfortable to me than a Pendolino, and if you get the extra legroom table at the cab end it's a perfect "mini office" to get the laptop out and spend a few hours getting stuff done. If they'd gone for 2+1 First Class I'd do it even more.
 

Cheshire Scot

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FROM THE NOW CLOSED RECENT THREAD ON THIS SUBJECT:
'Bletchleyite'
'Euston-Edinburgh is actually a more recent innovation when Virgin Trains joined together the Euston-Wolves and Brum-Edinburgh service - somewhere in the early 2010s, I think'.

Prior to this in the fairly early days of Pendolinos and before Euston to Glasgow via Trent Valley became hourly there was, probably for only one timetable year (or even less) a direct (Trent Valley) Euston Edinburgh train in either direction which took one of the vacant paths in the Glasgow pattern south of Carstairs.
Southbound it was either 09.xx or 10.xx from Edinburgh, and the ECS from Polmadie became a passenger train from Carstairs to Edinburgh, connecting out a train to Glasgow from either Manchester or Birmingham. Apologies I cannot put a year on this but I do remember the connection at Carstairs and the train being routed Trent Valley.

Report
 

Ianno87

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FROM THE NOW CLOSED RECENT THREAD ON THIS SUBJECT:
'Bletchleyite'
'Euston-Edinburgh is actually a more recent innovation when Virgin Trains joined together the Euston-Wolves and Brum-Edinburgh service - somewhere in the early 2010s, I think'.

Prior to this in the fairly early days of Pendolinos and before Euston to Glasgow via Trent Valley became hourly there was, probably for only one timetable year (or even less) a direct (Trent Valley) Euston Edinburgh train in either direction which took one of the vacant paths in the Glasgow pattern south of Carstairs.
Southbound it was either 09.xx or 10.xx from Edinburgh, and the ECS from Polmadie became a passenger train from Carstairs to Edinburgh, connecting out a train to Glasgow from either Manchester or Birmingham. Apologies I cannot put a year on this but I do remember the connection at Carstairs and the train being routed Trent Valley.

Report

It was mandated by the Strategic Rail Authority; ran (IIRC) from 2004 to 2008.
 

swt_passenger

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Not my video but there is good progress.
You might usefully put this in the 803 progress thread, as it’s not speculation?
 

XAM2175

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Is it me, or is that Blue Pullman blue?
"Nanking blue" - and while I can't call it exactly the same it's pretty close!
(with the usual caveats regarding monitor calibration, modern pigments, varying chromatic sensitivity of old films, etc etc)

316-Nanking-Blue.jpg

(colour swatch from https://howesmodels.co.uk/product/pullman-nanking-blue-15ml-enamel/)
 
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