Effect of planned new WCML timetable on Milton Keynes Central

[Bletchleyite]

From this thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...est-coasts-805-807-hitachi-at300-sets.228495/

No, cutting Crewe out of the Liverpools wouldn't be a sensible thing to do.

If MKC is to swap the Liverpool for the North Wales, as seems to be the case, then that Liverpool absolutely must retain a Crewe stop, if it doesn't then journey times from MKC will increase significantly to North Wales, to the North West (i.e. Warrington/Wigan/Preston) and to Scotland, by needing to either go via Manchester, via Birmingham with a change or use the much slower LNR. This would be unacceptable.

 

[A0]

If MKC is to swap the Liverpool for the North Wales, as seems to be the case, then that Liverpool absolutely must retain a Crewe stop, if it doesn't then journey times from MKC will increase significantly to North Wales, to the North West (i.e. Warrington/Wigan/Preston) and to Scotland, by needing to either go via Manchester, via Birmingham with a change or use the much slower LNR. This would be unacceptable.

Not necessarily - depends what other stops are inserted in their place e.g. Rugby, Nuneaton etc given MKC already has reasonably quick connections to those.

Much as it may pain you, Milton Keynes isn't the be all and end all of the WCML and its connectivity. There are more important places.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not necessarily - depends what other stops are inserted in their place e.g. Rugby, Nuneaton etc given MKC already has reasonably quick connections to those.

Much as it may pain you, Milton Keynes isn't the be all and end all of the WCML and its connectivity. There are more important places.

There aren't any more important places on the WCML south of the West Midlands conurbation until you reach London, certainly, and MK will increase in size and become ever more important, not to mention its railheading role. Likely to double in size again over the next 20 years, which will increase its importance even further. Rugby is a small to medium town, and Watford effectively de-facto part of London now, and these three are the only IC stops, while nowhere along the Trent Valley line itself is of significant importance; it is a string of average small to medium towns.

That said, this will all be revisited again once HS2 comes along.

 

[nw1]

There aren't any more important places on the WCML south of the West Midlands conurbation until you reach London, certainly, and MK will increase in size and become ever more important, not to mention its railheading role. Likely to double in size again over the next 20 years, which will increase its importance even further. Rugby is a small to medium town, and Watford effectively de-facto part of London now, and these three are the only IC stops, while nowhere along the Trent Valley line itself is of significant importance; it is a string of average small to medium towns.

That said, this will all be revisited again once HS2 comes along.

Could one stop alternate direct London-Glasgow services at MKC? Particularly if the WCML pattern changes from a 3tph to 2tph pattern (thus more free paths?) as I suggested in the previous post. (Edit: but looks like that is not happening, at least for Manchester).

 

[cle]

If MKC is to swap the Liverpool for the North Wales, as seems to be the case, then that Liverpool absolutely must retain a Crewe stop, if it doesn't then journey times from MKC will increase significantly to North Wales, to the North West (i.e. Warrington/Wigan/Preston) and to Scotland, by needing to either go via Manchester, via Birmingham with a change or use the much slower LNR. This would be unacceptable.

Again, I was referring to the new frequency. The existing Pendo London-Liverpool would still call at Crewe! But I see your MKC point - better to add it to the Wilmslow/Manc (and we have no MKC-Stoke but I think we'll survive)

Does the future state Liverpool to Crewe need both the 2tph to Birmingham, and also 2tph to Crewe? LSP has Crewe via the Birminghams already too - so there is nothing new here. The TV stations are well-served to Crewe also.

Given the LSP call adds some time, I would try to speed this up to enable 2 TV stops instead of Crewe/Stafford.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Odd comment. If MK wants direct services to Scotland, via Birmingham isn’t the right way anyway. A change off the Holyheads at Crewe, or another service if the second Liverpool can do MK, would be best. When HS2 comes, you won’t get anything out of Euston on the legacy network to Scotland anyway - it will all be connections via Crewe.

Actually two things:

1. The present (pre COVID) arrangement is quite popular - it allows the choice of a direct through service on an xx13 (if for instance you want to sit and get some work done) and taking the following xx40 to connect with the same train at Crewe. The planners offer both, and people do do both. You're making the assumption that people prioritise speed over all else. They don't - a very long distance trip heads into "taking all day" at which point it matters a lot less.

2. Most of the official proposed HS2 classic line services I have seen did include that service, and another proposal included a Euston-Manchester-Scotland instead. Generally something like:

Euston-Brum
Euston-Brum(-Scotland)
Euston-Manc(-Scotland)
Euston-North Wales

All but the North Wales would call at MKC, because the fast service is on HS2 (and the North Wales needs speeding up post HS2 to compensate for not being on HS2, so would likely be non stop Euston-Crewe). Two would call at Watford Jn.

Remember that by the time HS2 opens it'll have a population of around 400-500K, making it a similar size to Bristol, and given its location near London possibly a higher importance. Yes, things can change before then, but they won't necessarily.

Unacceptable to you, but probably not to almost everyone else…

It's unacceptable to give any major origin/destination on the WCML (and it is one and will become more so) unnecessarily poor connections to any of the branches. Don't forget that MK is actually one of the key reasons for HS2 - if it wasn't for MK, the south WCML commuter services would be a backwater like they were before it.

 

[irish_rail]

Actually two things:

1. The present (pre COVID) arrangement is quite popular - it allows the choice of a direct through service on an xx13 (if for instance you want to sit and get some work done) and taking the following xx40 to connect with the same train at Crewe. The planners offer both, and people do do both. You're making the assumption that people prioritise speed over all else. They don't - a very long distance trip heads into "taking all day" at which point it matters a lot less.

2. Most of the official proposed HS2 classic line services I have seen did include that service, and another proposal included a Euston-Manchester-Scotland instead. Generally something like:

Euston-Brum
Euston-Brum(-Scotland)
Euston-Manc(-Scotland)
Euston-North Wales

All but the North Wales would call at MKC, because the fast service is on HS2 (and the North Wales needs speeding up post HS2 to compensate for not being on HS2, so would likely be non stop Euston-Crewe). Two would call at Watford Jn.

Remember that by the time HS2 opens it'll have a population of around 400-500K, making it a similar size to Bristol, and given its location near London possibly a higher importance. Yes, things can change before then, but they won't necessarily.



It's unacceptable to give any major origin/destination on the WCML (and it is one and will become more so) unnecessarily poor connections to any of the branches. Don't forget that MK is actually one of the key reasons for HS2 - if it wasn't for MK, the south WCML commuter services would be a backwater like they were before it.

Too be fair, the tourist potential for MK is less than zero and tourism etc tends to be a big factor in travel patterns. I think comparing MK to Bristol isn't quite a fair comparison and it'll never have the same draw as Bristol.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Too be fair, the tourist potential for MK is less than zero and tourism etc tends to be a big factor in travel patterns.

It isn't a massive tourist destination (though it isn't "less than zero", there is some attraction of e.g. the Snowdome and Bletchley Park) but it is a major business one and will become more so. Perhaps oddly it isn't unknown on the stag/hen circuit for example.

A lot of people compare it to Bedford/Northampton, but it's of far more significance even now.

I think comparing MK to Bristol isn't quite a fair comparison and it'll never have the same draw as Bristol.

It won't have the same tourism draw but it could easily have a larger business draw in 20 years' time.

 

[A0]

Too be fair, the tourist potential for MK is less than zero and tourism etc tends to be a big factor in travel patterns. I think comparing MK to Bristol isn't quite a fair comparison and it'll never have the same draw as Bristol.

Not just tourist potential, Bristol also has a large student population through having 2 universities which MK doesn't.

And Bristol *is* a regional centre for the West of England in a way (that despite Bletchleyite's inevitable protests) Milton Keynes isn't - because MK has got London and Birmingham filling that role

 

[Bletchleyite]

And Bristol *is* a regional centre for the West of England in a way (that despite Bletchleyite's inevitable protests) Milton Keynes isn't - because MK has got London and Birmingham filling that role

MK is a regional centre for South Northants, West Beds and North Bucks - I know you don't like that but it is a fact. Most of that is by car, though there is some railheading.

 

[A0]

It isn't a massive tourist destination (though it isn't "less than zero", there is some attraction of e.g. the Snowdome and Bletchley Park) but it is a major business one and will become more so. Perhaps oddly it isn't unknown on the stag/hen circuit for example.

Bletchley Park is a relatively small scale tourist attraction - it gets about 200,000 a year. And Bletchley Park, as you well know, is quite a way from the centre of MK. The Snowdome probably gets a fraction of that number of visitors and many will be local visitors.

Bristol by comparison has at least a dozen tourist attractions within a short distance of the centre. The two aren't comparable.

A lot of people compare it to Bedford/Northampton, but it's of far more significance even now.

Debatable - Northampton's got a University - yes MK's got the OU, but that's not the same. So Northampton is busy building a fairly sizeable student economy.

All 3 are essentially London commuter towns - it's just that MK has a lot more houses than the others.

It won't have the same tourism draw but it could easily have a larger business draw in 20 years' time.

Unlikely - MK's reaching saturation point - unless it goes for *huge* expansion on the west side taking in places like Waddon, Nash and out towards Buckingham. And the problem it's got on the West side is the county boundary with Northants is south of the A422 - and I doubt West Northants are going to green light any large development down there which has little or no economic benefit to them.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Unlikely - MK's reaching saturation point - unless it goes for *huge* expansion on the east side taking in places like Waddon, Nash and out towards Buckingham.

The plan is for it to double again, so mark my words it will. Most likely is expansion to the north towards Olney etc where it is already in MK Borough - the Borough is roughly twice the size of the town at present - but there is already development taking place in Aylesbury Vale that is really part of MK.

 

[A0]

MK is a regional centre for South Northants, West Beds and North Bucks - I know you don't like that but it is a fact. Most of that is by car, though there is some railheading.

No it is not. It has a large shopping area and that's about it.

True regional centres have governance from that place - MK doesn't have that. True regional centres usually have things like hospitals which offer certain specialisms - MK doesn't have that.

MK is a big town, like Northampton. It doesn't have "regional" governance (nor does Northampton).

In fact these maps show how limited MK is going to be in terms of west-ward development. https://milton-keynes.gov.uk/assets/attach/1362/Maps_1-9_single_sided2.pdf

So sorry - as I posted before, MK has been the beneficiary of previous timetables - looks like it might not be in the future. And on another thread around here it is being suggested the Southern service to MK is also living on borrowed time as well.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In fact these maps show how limited MK is going to be in terms of west-ward development. https://milton-keynes.gov.uk/assets/attach/1362/Maps_1-9_single_sided2.pdf

Bluntly, no, they don't.

Probably no point going further on this OT branch of the thread, but give it 20 years and we will see. I strongly and confidently believe you are comprehensively wrong.

 

[A0]

Bluntly, no, they don't.

Probably no point going further on this OT branch of the thread, but give it 20 years and we will see. I strongly and confidently believe you are comprehensively wrong.

Sorry - they do. They show MK's boundaries - which is the extent of the area it can approve planning applications on. And they can't extend to the west - that's a simple fact. You cannot dispute it.

So the only expansion would be to the east of the M1 - much of the area up towards Olney is flood plain, which presents its own challenges in terms of development and, more intriguingly puts it even further away from MKC station - and Olney is 11 - 12 miles from each of MK Central, Bedford, Wellingborough and Northampton stations. And Bedford or Wellingborough are probably the quickest to drive to.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Sorry - they do. They show MK's boundaries - which is the extent of the area it can approve planning applications on. And they can't extend to the west - that's a simple fact. You cannot dispute it.

Boundaries can and do change*. And there are presently developments in the Aylesbury Vale and Northamptonshire areas (Salden Chase and Old Stratford) which are de-facto MK, so the suggestion they wouldn't approve them is just tripe, they are doing.

* Why do people on here so often think things that can be changed are immutable?

 

[A0]

Boundaries can and do change*. And there are presently developments in the Aylesbury Vale and Northamptonshire areas (Salden Chase and Old Stratford) which are de-facto MK, so the suggestion they wouldn't approve them is just tripe, they are doing.

* Why do people on here so often think things that can be changed are immutable?

Because expanding MK Council's boundary will be opposed by most of the people who live in the areas which would be affected. It would need a public consultation which would cost millions. So whilst MK Council may have empire building ambitions, they aren't going to get wider support for that.

Going back to the WCML timetable - MK isn't going to be gaining in the way it has in the past - even post HS2 there's likely to be some changes, and I can easily foresee MK losing any claim on services beyond Liverpool or Manchester. Glasgow will be quicker via a change onto HS2 at Birmingham and north of Warrington HS2 will be using the legacy WCML and will have first claim on any paths. So a roundabout Euston - Glasgow service stopping at MK and others along the way is likely to be an early victim - there may be a case for an Birmingham - Glasgow service post HS2 to cover places like Wolverhampton, Stafford and Crewe to continue to give them a link to Scotland, but places south of Birmingham will be looking at a change to HS2.

So in many ways the recast of Avanti with MK having 1tph Manchester and 1tph Liverpool is a foretaste of the future end state and other stations such as Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth stand to gain moving forward. As ever Northampton won't get any benefit.....

 

[Grumpy Git]

If anyone is doubting MK's significance, I invite them to book a 3* / 4* mid-week hotel room at short notice. The prices can be eye watering.

 

[A0]

If anyone is doubting MK's significance, I invite them to book a 3* / 4* mid-week hotel room at short notice. The prices can be eye watering.

That's more to do with supply and demand at the upper end - CMK only has a couple of 4*.

Milton Keynes next Tuesday by Travelodge is £ 65.99 and Premier Inn is £ 85. Northampton on Premier Inn for the same dates is over £ 100.

 

[Grumpy Git]

That's more to do with supply and demand at the upper end - CMK only has a couple of 4*.

Milton Keynes next Tuesday by Travelodge is £ 65.99 and Premier Inn is £ 85. Northampton on Premier Inn for the same dates is over £ 100.

Travelodge is one step up from sleeping in the car, dreadful places.

 

[A0]

Travelodge is one step up from sleeping in the car, dreadful places.

But are classed as 3* hotels - so are a reasonable comparison.

Notwithstanding, as pointed out, Northampton was even more expensive for the same dates next week.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But are classed as 3* hotels - so are a reasonable comparison.

Worth pointing out that in the UK there is no legal definition of star rating, but even to the extent that they are used, they refer to facilties at the hotel (e.g. 4* requires things like gym and potentially pool) and not to how good it is.

Travelodges are just awful* and are probably just a thing to themselves, only comparable with themselves (or I guess private en-suite in a YHA or similar). FWIW I'd class some as 2* due to the absence of a restaurant (some have one, some don't). 1* would be a very basic B&B with e.g. no en-suite.

* I had the joys of Luton Travelodge last Sunday evening, really scraping the bottom, chosen solely as it was opposite the L&D Hospital for a 7am admission for a minor op, not because there was anything good about it, and indeed it was utterly dire. Loose, draughty windows, inadequate heater and filthy, as usual. No problem with basic (e.g. as delivered by Ibis Budget) but TL is just rubbish.

Because expanding MK Council's boundary will be opposed by most of the people who live in the areas which would be affected. It would need a public consultation which would cost millions. So whilst MK Council may have empire building ambitions, they aren't going to get wider support for that.

I would like to see the boundaries changed, but the boundaries don't have to change for developers to want to build houses - see Salden Chase as an example, or the building around the A5-A508-A422 roundabout.

So in many ways the recast of Avanti with MK having 1tph Manchester and 1tph Liverpool is a foretaste of the future end state and other stations such as Rugby, Nuneaton, Tamworth stand to gain moving forward. As ever Northampton won't get any benefit.....

It can't really, its location on the Northampton loop gets in the way of it getting much of an improvement, because stopping a service there costs about 20 minutes rather than the usual 3-4 or so if it's on the mainline. But added Rugby or MKC stops are useful for connections to it.

 

[A S Leib]

It can't really, its location on the Northampton loop gets in the way of it getting much of an improvement, because stopping a service there costs about 20 minutes rather than the usual 3-4 or so if it's on the mainline. But added Rugby or MKC stops are useful for connections to it.

And presumably Avanti would rather have more London services than run a service from Shrewsbury or Liverpool or Preston which only goes as far as Northampton.

 

[Bletchleyite]

And presumably Avanti would rather have more London services than run a service from Shrewsbury or Liverpool or Preston which only goes as far as Northampton.

Post HS2 I wouldn't be surprised to see faster "LNR" services between Birmingham and Euston via Northampton, though, perhaps only with one stop at MKC on the way.

 

[Esker-pades]

There will be a direct MK - Crewe service. You'll be fine.

 

[A0]

And presumably Avanti would rather have more London services than run a service from Shrewsbury or Liverpool or Preston which only goes as far as Northampton.

TBF, running a "regional" Northampton - Shrewsbury service isn't really the role of the WCML long distance operator. Those are the kind of services I'd expect of WMR.

 

[mmh]

It's unacceptable to give any major origin/destination on the WCML (and it is one and will become more so) unnecessarily poor connections to any of the branches. Don't forget that MK is actually one of the key reasons for HS2 - if it wasn't for MK, the south WCML commuter services would be a backwater like they were before it.

In that case, why are we building HS2? I assumed the "South WCML is full" rationale was to increase fast services from the likes of Hemel Hempstead to London. If it's just about MK, what's the point?

As a North Wales resident and former commuter from Llandudno Junction to Euston I dispute there's much need for direct trains to MK. Southbound trains always had very few people leave at MK. I do however think direct links are important, so conversely I wouldn't like to see them go, but my gut feeling is a Stafford stop on North Wales services would generate far more business than MK does.

 

[Philip]

As mentioned, Milton Keynes is not a tourist destination; it is business and commuting. I do not see a strong business travel market between Milton Keynes and Scotland and North West England (outside Manchester), nor with Liverpool. The big markets for Milton Keynes served by Avanti are (in order) London, Birmingham and Manchester; followed by Watford, Rugby, Coventry, Nuneaton and Birmingham Intl.

With this mind, I propose the following four Avanti services calling at Milton Keynes:

London-Watford-Milton Keynes-Northampton-Rugby-Coventry-Birmingham Intl-Birmingham New Street.

London-Milton Keynes-Coventry-Birmingham New Street.

London-Milton Keynes-Stoke-Macclesfield-Stockport-Manchester.

London-Milton Keynes-Birmingham New Street-Sandwell-Wolverhampton-Stafford-Crewe-Warrington-Wigan-Preston-Scotland.

The latter fills in a few gaps for the small number of people making these journeys by providing a direct service from MKC to Crewe, the North West and Scotland for the passengers who don't wish to use the quicker option of changing in Manchester.

Liverpool services should be non-stop south of Crewe; Liverpool SP, Runcorn and Crewe should be the regular hourly stopping pattern for this route.

 

[The Planner]

As mentioned, Milton Keynes is not a tourist destination; it is business and commuting. I do not see a strong business travel market between Milton Keynes and Scotland and North West England (outside Manchester), nor with Liverpool. The big markets for Milton Keynes served by Avanti are (in order) London, Birmingham and Manchester; followed by Watford, Rugby, Coventry, Nuneaton and Birmingham Intl.

With this mind, I propose the following four Avanti services calling at Milton Keynes:

London-Watford-Milton Keynes-Northampton-Rugby-Coventry-Birmingham Intl-Birmingham New Street.

London-Milton Keynes-Coventry-Birmingham New Street.

London-Milton Keynes-Stoke-Macclesfield-Stockport-Manchester.

London-Milton Keynes-Birmingham New Street-Sandwell-Wolverhampton-Stafford-Crewe-Warrington-Wigan-Preston-Scotland.

The latter fills in a few gaps for the small number of people making these journeys by providing a direct service from MKC to Crewe, the North West and Scotland for the passengers who don't wish to use the quicker option of changing in Manchester.

Liverpool services should be non-stop south of Crewe; Liverpool SP, Runcorn and Crewe should be the regular hourly stopping pattern for this route.

When is this for? Post HS2? None will go via Northampton apart from possibly a few peaks. Liverpool will be covered by HS2 so anything that exists from there is going to be stopping south of Crewe. Nothing is going to miss Birmingham International either on the Birmingham route, nor Coventry with your last service, that is daft.

 

[CW2]

As mentioned, Milton Keynes is not a tourist destination; it is business and commuting. I do not see a strong business travel market between Milton Keynes and Scotland and North West England (outside Manchester), nor with Liverpool. The big markets for Milton Keynes served by Avanti are (in order) London, Birmingham and Manchester; followed by Watford, Rugby, Coventry, Nuneaton and Birmingham Intl.

With this mind, I propose the following four Avanti services calling at Milton Keynes:

London-Watford-Milton Keynes-Northampton-Rugby-Coventry-Birmingham Intl-Birmingham New Street.

London-Milton Keynes-Coventry-Birmingham New Street.

London-Milton Keynes-Stoke-Macclesfield-Stockport-Manchester.

London-Milton Keynes-Birmingham New Street-Sandwell-Wolverhampton-Stafford-Crewe-Warrington-Wigan-Preston-Scotland.

The latter fills in a few gaps for the small number of people making these journeys by providing a direct service from MKC to Crewe, the North West and Scotland for the passengers who don't wish to use the quicker option of changing in Manchester.

Liverpool services should be non-stop south of Crewe; Liverpool SP, Runcorn and Crewe should be the regular hourly stopping pattern for this route.

Assuming this proposal is for post-HS2, I'd suggest some thought is needed as to the overall requirements of the service pattern, rather than simply focussing on one location - in this case Milton Keynes - as otherwise a very screwed (up) set of specifications will result - as Philip has amply demonstrated.

With HS2 taking the bulk of the WCML long-distance traffic, this frees up space (on the southern part of the WCML at least) for services to call more frequently - and perhaps run less often than now. (For example, will it be sensible to run 3 Euston - New Street WCML trains per hour in addition to 3 Euston - Curzon Street HS2 trains?).

Alternatively, pre-HS2, there isn't a lot of scope to improve upon the WCML timetable first crafted for the West Coast Route Modernisation nearly 15 years ago. If "more stops at MK" is the desire, then shifting the xx:07 Liverpool into the xx:33 slot used by the peak hour additionals might free up some space for some additional calls at the top of the hour - offhand I don't know how the southbound would work. Remember though that every additional stop at MK results in a prolonged journey time of 5 - 6 minutes for everybody already on that train, so both the finances and the timetabling of such a move becomes quite shaky very quickly.