Electric cars

[thejuggler]

Are there any countries/regions where electric is making significant inroads into the private car fleet?

Norway. Over 50% of new vehicles sold in 2017 were electric or hybrid. Huge subsidies to encourage take up. Cheap hydro power.

 

[whhistle]

An easy way to start the adoption would be that from 2019/2020, all new cars sold will be electric.

That gives a little while for manufacturers to get rid of their existing stock, but hey, if they manufacturerd too many, that's their own fault for thinking they'd sell so many :P

But no doubt the government will say "it's not up to us to make that choice..." or whatever, even though they DO make those sorts of decisions in many areas.

 

[Lucan]

An easy way to start the adoption would be that from 2019/2020, all new cars sold will be electric.

Something like that is being done in many countries (including the UK I believe, not sure, but anyway it will be in due course); but with dates more like 2030. 2019/20 is ridiculously too soon. I am an engineer who has been involved in designing trains and buses and these things take a incredible (to an outsider) amount of time to design and develop, even without the electric angle. The current state of EV development is that the cars now out on the road are in a way pilot schemes - they have not even standardised on connectors yet.

To replace all vehicles with EVs will require replacements for cars (and lorries and buses?) across all the ranges, from minis, through family cars, executive cars, to farmers pick-up 4x4s and funeral limosines. There is a lot of work there.

Also, it will do no good for railways if this is done ahead of a lot more electrification. The railways have enough brickbats from the media without ending up as the only form of inland transport still emitting CO2.

 

[underbank]

An easy way to start the adoption would be that from 2019/2020, all new cars sold will be electric.

Far too short a timescale as we have nowhere near the infrastructure for charging. It'll take years for the authorities to even plan where they're going to put the charging points, redesign car parks, lay the cables etc., and years more to actually do the work. Given that charging points require more space than an existing car park space, car parks have to be planned to be larger to accommodate the machinery. How to charge vehicles parked on street overnight needs a lot more thought and planning to avoid vandalism and provide security that your car WILL be charged in the morning. There's still little work been done as to how the infrastructure and electricity used will be paid for, not to mention how the loss of taxes from petrol/diesel will be made up. I think 2013 is wildly optimistic - and highly likely to be pushed back - more like 2040. If a stupidly early adoption date was brought it, all that would happen is that new car sales would plummet and used cars would become more demanded, hence rising prices, probably second hand prices would be higher than new.

Considering the foul ups, delays, and now seemingly forgotten compulsory changover from something simple/easy like analogue radios into digital radios, there's no way electric cars will be compulsory 2 years from now. - More like 20.

 

[Mordac]

Far too short a timescale as we have nowhere near the infrastructure for charging. It'll take years for the authorities to even plan where they're going to put the charging points, redesign car parks, lay the cables etc., and years more to actually do the work. Given that charging points require more space than an existing car park space, car parks have to be planned to be larger to accommodate the machinery. How to charge vehicles parked on street overnight needs a lot more thought and planning to avoid vandalism and provide security that your car WILL be charged in the morning. There's still little work been done as to how the infrastructure and electricity used will be paid for, not to mention how the loss of taxes from petrol/diesel will be made up. I think 2013 is wildly optimistic - and highly likely to be pushed back - more like 2040. If a stupidly early adoption date was brought it, all that would happen is that new car sales would plummet and used cars would become more demanded, hence rising prices, probably second hand prices would be higher than new.

Considering the foul ups, delays, and now seemingly forgotten compulsory changover from something simple/easy like analogue radios into digital radios, there's no way electric cars will be compulsory 2 years from now. - More like 20.

Not without time machine technology at least!

 

[edwin_m]

Not to mention constructing extra generating capacity to charge all those batteries.

 

[HSTEd]

And the additional distribution grid reinforcement to support huge numbers of fast chargers.

The problem with fast chargers is they make intermittent loads in the hundreds of kilowatts appear in random locations at unexpected times.
This is really bad for grid optimisation.

Simplest way to implement this would be to encourage installation of nighttime trickle chargers - possibly using a grid control mechanism.
That way the company could guarantee that a set number of kilowatt hours would be made available between say 12pm and 6am, but not specify how they would be delivered, only that a car plugged in between those hours would definitely recieve them.
The chargers would then modulate their power consumption under grid control to achieve that objective without causing any nasty edge effects.

 

[radamfi]

An easy way to start the adoption would be that from 2019/2020, all new cars sold will be electric.

Smart are going to stop making petrol cars and go electric only next year. A small range will less of an issue for cars primarily aimed at urban use.

 

[MotCO]

The other issue I can see is that once electric cars are being sold in large numbers, the need for petrol stations will reduce, and their closures may accelerate the transfer to electric cars. However, if hybrids are still an option, they will need to get their petrol supplies from somewhere. If you are the owner of the last petrol car, where will you get your petrol from?

 

[Bald Rick]

The other issue I can see is that once electric cars are being sold in large numbers, the need for petrol stations will reduce, and their closures may accelerate the transfer to electric cars. However, if hybrids are still an option, they will need to get their petrol supplies from somewhere. If you are the owner of the last petrol car, where will you get your petrol from?

Where do people who still have coal fires at home get their coal from?

 

[Bromley boy]

Where do people who still have coal fires at home get their coal from?

Petrol stations !

 

[Lucan]

The other issue I can see is that once electric cars are being sold in large numbers, the need for petrol stations will reduce, .... If you are the owner of the last petrol car, where will you get your petrol from?

If people are as badly organised with EV charging as they seem to be with fuel, petrol stations will turn to EV charging, as well as continuing to act as the general grocery/newsagents/off-licences/cafes/public-conveniences that they have become (putting many a village shop out of business). No doubt they will continue to have at least one petrol pump (diesel having been probably banned).

Personally I have never understood why there are so many roadside petrol stations (and they still spring up like mushrooms) considering that we are told that the average car journey is only a few miles (ie they are almost all close around driver's homes). I can drive 350 miles on a tank and I get 95% of my fuel from my local supermarket, and most of the rest when I drive to my daughters 200 miles away when I use her local supermarket. En route I pass dozens of roadside and motorway petrol stations. I do use other's when on holiday but that is a small fraction of my use. Do most people just drive and only think about re-fuelling when their tank warning light comes on? If people organised their refuelling better then perhaps most of those roadside ones could be demolished.

I have also never understood why they need to be such garish eyesores, with massive canopies that look high enough to take a double-decker, and lit up like a Blackpool fairground ride, even in areas where other planning looks "sensitive". Good riddance if they go.

 

[AM9]

... I have also never understood why they need to be such garish eyesores, with massive canopies that look high enough to take a double-decker, and lit up like a Blackpool fairground ride, even in areas where other planning looks "sensitive". Good riddance if they go.

Well there is the issue of safety:

a) pedestrians in an area where cars drive
b) handling equipment like self-service dispensing highly inflammable fluids
c) using keys to lock/unlock vehicles and sometimes filler access
d) enabling security cameras to record activities and number plates​

All in all a bit more important than keeping it dark and looking nice. The problem is cars that need fuel, not the facilities to keep them running.

 

[Harpers Tate]

....encourage installation of nighttime trickle chargers - possibly using a grid control mechanism.
That way the company could guarantee that a set number of kilowatt hours would be made available between say 12pm and 6am, but not specify how they would be delivered, only that a car plugged in between those hours would definitely recieve them.
The chargers would then modulate their power consumption under grid control to achieve that objective without causing any nasty edge effects.

If an EV owner
(a) charges at home - which is the most sensible location for 90-odd percent of typical usage
(b) has any kind of split tariff where off-peak power is cheaper than at other times
then they are already encouraged (by this pricing) to charge overnight. It's not sophisiticated consumption control; just encouragement to charge when the grid has spare capacity. My EV (and so, I guess, others) has an onboard scheduled charging feature which means you can plug it in whenever you want, but it doesn't take power except during the scheduled hours. There is one supplier that offers a highly EV-friendly tariff with four time periods in each 24 hours at three different rates (two normal, one high/peak and one low/off-peak - overnight), using smart meters to record consumption real-time. Overnight power on this tariff is about 1/4 the price of peak hour power (5p per unit IIRC). Quite probably, it doesn't need much more than for this type of pricing to become more mainstream.

The huge majority of car users (of any type) will hardly ever drive their car for a greater distance than an EV's range, between leaving home and arriving back there. The average commute is well within range, for example. Those who fall into this category might therefore only ever use night-time power, if properly motivated. Those who do longer journeys (and therefore are likely to need charges en route, in the daytime) are in reality a small minority of the total car use in this country.

 

[Lucan]

Well there is the issue of safety:

a) pedestrians in an area where cars drive
b) c) d) etc​

All in all a bit more important than keeping it dark and looking nice.

I was talking about the canopies, not the lighting at working level. The real reason for this illumination, bright colouring, and the other in-your-face signage is not safety, it is to advertise. The reason that canopy is three times higher than a car or van would need is so that the advertising kicks in for the casual driver from further away. No other business would get away with it (compare with the garden centre across the road). I would not object if, instead of this OTT signage, they were allowed standard sized road signs to indicate a petrol station 200 yards ahead.

 

[MotCO]

I have also never understood why they need to be such garish eyesores, with massive canopies that look high enough to take a double-decker, and lit up like a Blackpool fairground ride, even in areas where other planning looks "sensitive". Good riddance if they go.

That's because sometimes they do take a double-decker. For example, there are a number of presereved double-deckers - if the canopies were low, where would they get their fuel?

 

[MotCO]

If people are as badly organised with EV charging as they seem to be with fuel, .

Is there any evidence to suggest that electric cars should try to fully discharge their batteries before recharging in order to maximise the life of the batteries? Or is the reverse true?

 

[Harpers Tate]

Is there any evidence to suggest that electric cars should try to fully discharge their batteries before recharging in order to maximise the life of the batteries? Or is the reverse true?

Not from any emprical research, but from my owners' handbook: the reverse is true. Using a battery whilst close to empty apparently shortens life. In any case, from a practical POV, taking every opportunity for a top-up whilst doing something else (like, shopping, eating/drinking or sleeping) is exactly how you go about minimising the amount of truly wasted time waiting for a charge.

 

[thejuggler]

I'e been out in a new Prius plug in hybrid today and it was exactly what I needed for urban running.

I used full EV mode with a 30 mile range and did about 20 miles without using any petrol. The long term average mpg for the car which had done 1800 miles was 75mpg.

However it had a massive shortcoming for the size of car it is - the boot. From boot floor to underside of parcel shelf is about the height of three stacked pizza boxes. Totally inadequate for a family car.

 

[PeterC]

I'e been out in a new Prius plug in hybrid today and it was exactly what I needed for urban running.

I used full EV mode with a 30 mile range and did about 20 miles without using any petrol. The long term average mpg for the car which had done 1800 miles was 75mpg.

However it had a massive shortcoming for the size of car it is - the boot. From boot floor to underside of parcel shelf is about the height of three stacked pizza boxes. Totally inadequate for a family car.

That is the problem with a PHEV, you have to carry around a petrol tank and an ICE as well as the batteries. However that is going to be the only long term solution for the 30% or so of cars that do not have access to private drives.

 

[HSTEd]

If an EV owner
(a) charges at home - which is the most sensible location for 90-odd percent of typical usage
(b) has any kind of split tariff where off-peak power is cheaper than at other times
then they are already encouraged (by this pricing) to charge overnight. It's not sophisiticated consumption control; just encouragement to charge when the grid has spare capacity. My EV (and so, I guess, others) has an onboard scheduled charging feature which means you can plug it in whenever you want, but it doesn't take power except during the scheduled hours. There is one supplier that offers a highly EV-friendly tariff with four time periods in each 24 hours at three different rates (two normal, one high/peak and one low/off-peak - overnight), using smart meters to record consumption real-time. Overnight power on this tariff is about 1/4 the price of peak hour power (5p per unit IIRC). Quite probably, it doesn't need much more than for this type of pricing to become more mainstream.

The problem is that widespread adoption of electric cars is likely to erase the rationale for Economy 7 as it exists today.
Demand swings between night-time and day-time are actually relatively small compared to the likely charging demand from massive scale adoption of EVs. It is estimated that peak overnight charging demand could potentially reach 50+GWe
It is highly likely that overnight electricity use will actually become peak time use.

 

[Harpers Tate]

Hmmm.....I wonder how many EVs charging overnight (at, say 6.6kW) equate to the heating, lighting and IT equipment in a (9-5) city office block......... Or any other "large" consumer that is likely to be daytime only.

 

[Lucan]

The reason that canopy is three times higher than a car or van would need is so that the advertising kicks in for the casual driver from further away.

That's because sometimes they do take a double-decker. For example, there are a number of presereved double-deckers - if the canopies were low, where would they get their fuel?

That's easily solved - have a diesel pump outside the covered area, or an uncovered lane. I am old enough to remember when many garages had a single diesel pump for lorries (which were smaller in those days anyway, and diesel was called "derv") in an area more easily manoevered into than where the petrol pumps were. Many garages, even today, cannot be manoevred into with a modern HGV or full size bus, high canopy or not. There are some around here (eg Chepstow Tesco) that I avoid even with my caravan.

FWIW, I have never seen an HGV use a non-motorway roadside or supermarket filling station, although I did once see a full size single deck bus in one. I think if I were a vintage bus enthusiast I'd carry spare fuel in jerry cans. However, when I was involved in road testing buses we once parked a red London double-decker in the car park of a smart country pub for our lunch stop. The looks on the other customers' faces was a treat !

 

[Lucan]

The problem is that widespread adoption of electric cars is likely to erase the rationale for Economy 7 as it exists today. ...It is highly likely that overnight electricity use will actually become peak time use.

Indeed. Many EV enthusiast assume that things like pricing and taxation will stay exactly as they are today, with EVs in particular continuing to get massive tax breaks in licencing and "fuel". EVs will come, no doubt, but those things will definitely not remain the same. By the time EVs become commonplace there will have been big changes, for example government will need to collect that road tax (call it and spin it how you like) somehow, most likely with road pricing.

 

[HSTEd]

Indeed. Many EV enthusiast assume that things like pricing and taxation will stay exactly as they are today, with EVs in particular continuing to get massive tax breaks in licencing and "fuel". EVs will come, no doubt, but those things will definitely not remain the same. By the time EVs become commonplace there will have been big changes, for example government will need to collect that road tax (call it and spin it how you like) somehow, most likely with road pricing.

It is essentially impossible to charge more for electricity for automotive use than electricity for home use - unless you ban selling of rewireable 13A plugs!
So it will have to be some form of road pricing, or just very very much increased VED.

Although you might argue the air quality improvements from abolishing ICE cars might reduce state health and other expenditures enough that the extra tax income is less necessary.

 

[bnm]

If I were in the market for an EV it certainly wouldn't be a Tesla.

The smart money on Wall Street is 'shorting' Tesla stock. This is done when analysts believe the company is heading to bankruptcy.

Such a forecast isn't helped by Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, dismissing financial questions about his company as "boring".

The company is grossly over valued. It is struggling to get sufficient product to market. Profligate spending isn't improving production nearly quickly enough. Tesla's credit rating is dropping every quarter, two more steps and it'll be junk.

Bankruptcy within a year I predict. Highly unlikely to be taken over due to the $7 billion debt.

I don't know about getting to Mars. With Tesla Elon Musk is flying too close to the sun.

 

[edwin_m]

Such a forecast isn't helped by Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, dismissing financial questions about his company as "boring".

Presumably financial questions will be directed to his Boring Company. Which is unusual in that if it is successful it will go down the tubes...

 

[Lucan]

The smart money on Wall Street is 'shorting' Tesla stock. This is done when analysts believe the company is heading to bankruptcy.... The company is grossly over valued.... Bankruptcy within a year I predict.

A year could be an exageration. The market is turning against him :-
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...erk-and-tesla-stock-paid-the-price-2018-05-02

Quoting from that Marketwatch link :- "Elon Musk held a long, odd earnings conference call on Wednesday in which he insulted analysts, the media, federal regulators and people who died behind the wheel of his cars, and then told anyone concerned about volatility not to invest in his company. Unsurprisingly, volatility ensued ..."

Basically, Musk is a salesman, a snake oil one at that. His gift is the ability to talk people into investing in him, and his real area of expertise is finance. People assume that he is a technical genius who invented the Tesla car for example, when in fact he merely bought into an existing project. Having got people to invest in him he behaves like a spoiled billionaire (correction - he is a spoiled billionaire) indulging in schemes that a bright schoolboy would think up - Hyperloop and Boring (an underground car shuttle for city commuting). His only successful technical venture has been SpaceX, but people have continued to thow money his way.

 

[Lucan]

... you might argue the air quality improvements from abolishing ICE cars might reduce state health and other expenditures enough that the extra tax income is less necessary.

Nowhere near. I'm not saying that air quality is not an issue, but it is already no-where near the issue it once was, in the UK at least. People who suffer from pollution are mostly ones with breathing problems anyway, and will remain as a health expenditure. Deaths from pollution, like deaths from flu epidemics, are mostly of people who are already in a bad way and did not have long to go.

People and politicians becoming fixated on pollution are showing a commonly seen irrational human tendency to spend their time and energies pursuing a cause to the last trifles, long past the point when the issue has become far less of a problem than ones remaining in other fields.

We should be directing our efforts instead towards getting people onto public transport. Cars "pollute" in ways other than exhaust gas. They make the outside world generally an unpleasant place by their commandeering the lion's share of public area, which EVs will continue to do.

 

[tony_mac]

People who suffer from pollution are mostly ones with breathing problems anyway

breathing problems (as well as brain development, cancers, etc.) are often caused by pollution in the first place.
There is an increased risk as you get older, but it's nothing like as dramatic as you suggest - thousands of younger people are also dying every year.

Cars "pollute" in ways other than exhaust gas.

In terms of breathable pollution, electric Vehicles do emit a significant amount of particulate matter - from wearing of brakes, tyres, and roads.