The conversation I had was some time ago and much has indeed changed since then. The price differential for first is too great and for an hourly service not popular. It might be more attractive for a reliable half hourly service with a seat. Catering doesn't work well when the train is so crowded the trolley can't easily get aboard a busy train, let alone work through it.
One problem we haven't resolved is how to distribute loads throughout a train. I have early memories of boarding very long ECML trains at York for Newcastle and walking forward to find empty compartments at the front, the section nearest the bridge being full.
I've watched loading of EMR, TPE and Northern trains at Sheffield for Manchester. 6 coach TPE 185s and 4 coach Northern 150/6s and that walk through option isn't fully available. On EMRs 156/8s it is, however the issue remains. Passengers pile into the first coaches they see and don't walk forward.
Yesterday I saw a 4 car Northern with empty first carriage and rear full and standing. It happens every day across the network so impressions of how busy trains are can vary greatly even on the same train. At Sheffield platform staff do sometimes try to encourage better distribution.
Passenger satisfaction is greatest when seating capacity is less than 50% utilised thus allowing a choice of empty available seats. ToC and DfT are happiest at 100%.
Currently a railway organised predominantly around fairly predictable commuting and business patterns is struggling to readjust. I've only travelled first class at greatly reduced weekend rates. When the fare is 50-100% more expensive than standard it's not an option for most.
Distributing loads among trains is an issue - problem is a lot of reserved seats end up being near to the rear of the train at terminus stations anyway... I've skipped my reserved seat on TPE before and gone to the furthest away unit, because I know the rear will be fill and standing.
The other issue on Norwich - Liverpool is the train splitting. A lot of people pile on to the carriages continuing on to Norwich. Really the trains need to be 4 cars Nottingham - Norwich and 6 cars Nottingham - Liverpool. But, I would really want to avoid splitting/joining if I was provisioning new stock today.
First class is generally for business travel through the week and remote working/cost cutting has lessened that demand. At weekends the Premium upgrade service like on the WCML works okay in that it's not extortionate but you're basically just paying for a more comfortable seat (or any seat depending on how busy standard class is).
Yes - I think offering first class as a cheap upgrade for advance passengers is a good way of divvying out seats at times of low demand.
But, it would be interesting to see how the revenue per carriage is compared to a standard carriage - although I think this would apply mostly to XC!
There is still some demand in some areas, it seems - I recently travelled on a weekday evening peak departure from St Pancras formed of a 7 car 222. Despite the mass over provision on those sets, every single bay of seating in first class except a couple of the few single seats had at least one occupant.
Yeah - the London bound routes (which are the only EMR runs 1st class on) tend to have a bit more experience in distributing loads.
London is also the most popular destination when it comes to business travel for obvious reasons!
