England's new three-tier lockdown system

[Busaholic]

North Yorkshire? Right. So what happens in Scarborough or Harrogate is relevant to Hawes or Skipton or Richmond is it?

Doing it on the basis of government areas is nonsense when it's a masssive area (largest English county), and is sparsely populated - what's happening in the only two larger towns, Harrrogate and Scarborough, could have an impact on places many miles away.

We way well get this in Cornwall, where three deaths mentioning Covid on the certificate have been registered since July. Plymouth is likely to go into Tier 2 within days, and someone with undue influence will pipe up 'Saltash is just over the Tamar bridge, and is in Cornwall, so that should be included too.' Trouble is, Cornwall is a Unitary Authority, so Land's End, ninety miles from Saltash, would have to be treated the same, and West Cornwall has far more populace from the nearer-Plymouth East.

 

[northernchris]

Where I live, West Yorkshire I think we're just past the 2 week point in the 'Tier 2' nonsense, so from what I understand it should now be 'under review' - which it seems to be...with rumours it'll go to Tier 3 rather soon

Does that mean we then have 28 days of Tier 3, then a review and if cases have dropped back to Tier 2 for ANOTHER 28 days...ARGH!

West Yorkshire has been rumoured to be joining Tier 3 for around 2 weeks now, although it does seem as though it's more likely than not it will be within days. According to local media reports, Leeds hospitals are at 98% capacity although it's not clear if that includes all beds, ICU beds or assigned Covid beds

Leeds WILL enter Tier 3 as city's hospitals '98 per cent full'

The dire situation in Leeds hospitals, which are now almost full, is understood to be the main driver for wanting to place the county under the strictest measures

www.leeds-live.co.uk

Leeds and the rest of West Yorkshire WILL soon enter Tier 3 but it has not been decided when, with further talks scheduled for tomorrow, LeedsLive understands.

This morning, Leeds City Council held a briefing laying out the latest data for the city, which recorded an infection rate of 420.6 cases per 100,000 in the seven days to October 22, up from 382.2 the previous week.


One attendee said the dire situation in Leeds hospitals - which are understood to be 98 per cent full - was the main driver for wanting to place the whole county into the toughest set of coronavirus restrictions.

I really doubt Tier 3 restrictions will last just 28 days unfortunately, unless Tier 4 is implemented. It's going to be a long, tough winter

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I suppose war is an upgrade from the unrest that people have been constantly predicting for 7 months now.

In case you hadn’t noticed, it’s cold outside, it gets dark very early. A lockdown now - unlike in the summer months - would be not be greeted with any enthusiasm, especially by those whose furlough ends imminently and whose employer is about to make them unemployed (Rishi’s £1k carrot per employee is unlikely to persuade bosses to retain un-needed staff).

 

[Chester1]

In case you hadn’t noticed, it’s cold outside, it gets dark very early. A lockdown now - unlike in the summer months - would be not be greeted with any enthusiasm, especially by those whose furlough ends imminently and whose employer is about to make them unemployed (Rishi’s £1k carrot per employee is unlikely to persuade bosses to retain un-needed staff).

I do wonder if the recent decision to remove the Canaries from the quarantine list and rumours that Dubai, Jamaica and other summer sun destinations will be removed soon is linked to morale. A long winter is easier to deal with if you can fly to Tenerife etc for a week or so. From a safety perspective the UK rate is so high that it doesn't make much difference.

 

[bramling]

In case you hadn’t noticed, it’s cold outside, it gets dark very early. A lockdown now - unlike in the summer months - would be not be greeted with any enthusiasm, especially by those whose furlough ends imminently and whose employer is about to make them unemployed (Rishi’s £1k carrot per employee is unlikely to persuade bosses to retain un-needed staff).

This is the thing, the circumstances are different now. People are now worrying about their employment, as opposed to relishing paid time at home in fine weather.

There comes a point where enough is enough.

 

[Ianno87]

This is the thing, the circumstances are different now. People are now worrying about their employment, as opposed to relishing paid time at home in fine weather.

There comes a point where enough is enough.

It wouldn't be *so* bad if there was at least some stability or exit strategy. But with places constantly moving between tiers, new tiers being made up, calls for Lockdowns etc etc etc it's basically impossible to plan anything remotely enjoyable to look forward to (and have confidence it'll be possible, which is pretty soul-destroying.

I'd love to put a date in the diary to meet my Greater Manchester-dwelling Mum even just for lunch. But I've no idea when that will be possible.

 

[Yew]

Anyone remember "Significant Normality by November"?

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Anyone remember "Significant Normality by November"?

Is it available as an e-book, under ‘fiction’ ?

 

[big_rig]

Anyone remember "Significant Normality by November"?

I think I filed that in the same place as the ten billion tests from the moon a day or whatever it was we were meant to be expecting about the same time.

 

[Bikeman78]

The trouble is that 2 or 3 weeks will turn into 2 or 3 months, just like it did at the end of March.

Whilst 200 deaths a day might sound bad, it is nowhere near the number that we saw during the first wave of COVID-19.

The NHS was not overwhelmed then, and there is no reason to suppose that it will be overwhelmed now.

I see that SAGE have been at it again, saying that deaths are forecast to be at 200 per day for several months, and that the second wave will be "more deadly" than the first.

200 deaths per day is unlikely to overwhelm the NHS, especially if Covid replaces Flu as the cause of death.

Very much so. It’s this mentality that’s leading to measures being floated that are completely ineffective, for example masks outside now being seriously considered.

We did a “March style” lockdown back in March, and it put us where we are now, so in essence it failed.

It does seem fairly clear the current situation is largely the result of schools and universities. So if there’s any “something” which needs to be done it’s to do some head scratching to see if refinements can be made there. There’s no point in bringing in measures which don’t actually target the problem.

I wonder what schools in Norway, Finland and Sweden are doing? Cases in those countries have gone up quite a lot but deaths have not. Perhaps people are just more healthy there.

 

[sheff1]

Basically it would be xmas day for 2 weeks.

So stores owned by Asian (or Asian descent) shopkeepers would be open but the rest would be closed. Sounds like a sensible idea.

I really thought that the three tiers were a good idea. I expected them to be standardised, at least throughout England,

You believed Boris ?

 

[infobleep]

Apologies if it has been asked already but a brief search of this thread didn't bring anything up. Nor did a wider Internet search.

Is there a set number of cases an area needs to reach before they go into either tier 2 or tier 3?

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Apologies if it has been asked already but a brief search of this thread didn't bring anything up. Nor did a wider Internet search.

Is there a set number of cases an area needs to reach before they go into either tier 2 or tier 3?

No. And there is no set number of cases that an area must drop down to, in order to exit a higher tier.
Welcome to Boris’ new show, ‘Play Your Cards Right’, where he listens to whoever shouts loudest (but only where the shout is ‘higher, HIGHER’ ...

 

[sheff1]

Is there a set number of cases an area needs to reach before they go into either tier 2 or tier 3?

No. Nottingham had more cases than Sheffield when the latter was put in Tier 3. Now the numbers in Nottingham have gone down it is going into Tier 3.

 

[43066]

This is the thing, the circumstances are different now. People are now worrying about their employment, as opposed to relishing paid time at home in fine weather.

There comes a point where enough is enough.

Yes indeed.

My observation is that even those people who were staunchly in favour of the spring lockdown are now reaching a point of “lockdown fatigue” and are simply getting on with things. In my social circle, which is predominantly London based, I can’t think of a single person who hasn’t broken the tier two restrictions over the last few weeks.

 

[DelayRepay]

My observation is that even those people who were staunchly in favour of the spring lockdown are now reaching a point of “lockdown fatigue” and are simply getting on with things. In my social circle, which is predominantly London based, I can’t think of a single person who hasn’t broken the tier two restrictions over the last few weeks.

I completely agree. Someone I know, who in March was calling for the Army to be deployed onto the streets of London to enforce lockdown, is now regularly breaking the rules by visiting other houses. They get offended when anyone says they would prefer not to break the law by hosting/attending illegal raves coffee mornings.

Everyone I know in Tier 2 and 3 areas now seems to treat the rules as guidelines and look for 'loopholes'

'No meeting different households in indoor hospitality venues' = 'Remember, if anyone asks, we are all one big family and live together in the same house.'
'People working are still allowed to enter other peoples' homes' = 'If you want to visit a friend, take a mop and pretend to be their cleaner'

 

[Bantamzen]

West Yorkshire has been rumoured to be joining Tier 3 for around 2 weeks now, although it does seem as though it's more likely than not it will be within days. According to local media reports, Leeds hospitals are at 98% capacity although it's not clear if that includes all beds, ICU beds or assigned Covid beds

Leeds WILL enter Tier 3 as city's hospitals '98 per cent full'

The dire situation in Leeds hospitals, which are now almost full, is understood to be the main driver for wanting to place the county under the strictest measures

www.leeds-live.co.uk

I really doubt Tier 3 restrictions will last just 28 days unfortunately, unless Tier 4 is implemented. It's going to be a long, tough winter

There does seem to be an air of inevitability to it, with the reports that 100K people a day getting the virus circulating the government will be desperate for another scapegoat. Sadly for many parts of West Yorkshire that have had some of the longest running additional restrictions this will be the death knell for their local economies. And tensions are already rising as communities start to blame each other, it could be an even worse winter than you imagine.

 

[yorksrob]

I think I filed that in the same place as the ten billion tests from the moon a day or whatever it was we were meant to be expecting about the same time.

There seems to be more chatter about it on the news today.

I'm beginning to think it might be worth going for if it's technically possible.

Public officials may baulk at the logistics/costs of such a programme, but if endless lockdowns until vaccine are the alternative all winter, aggressively finding all asymptomatic cases in a given area and locking down those seems like a better option.

Alternatively, I've not heard much about what Sweden's up to at the moment. Certainly it doesn't seem to be being reported amongst countries having a big rise on the continent. Perhaps the second wave will further exonerate their approach.

 

[birchesgreen]

According to the stats on Bing's Covid tracker Sweden is also on a "second wave" with 2,000 new active cases on the last count (higher than their earlier peaks just about) and 9 deaths.

 

[Pete_uk]

The reality is that we don't know the full extent of the first 'wave' as we were testing a much lower number of people.

 

[northernchris]

There does seem to be an air of inevitability to it, with the reports that 100K people a day getting the virus circulating the government will be desperate for another scapegoat. Sadly for many parts of West Yorkshire that have had some of the longest running additional restrictions this will be the death knell for their local economies. And tensions are already rising as communities start to blame each other, it could be an even worse winter than you imagine.

Absolutely - parts of the Bradford district have been under varying forms of enhanced restrictions since July yet cases are still rising. So either the measures are ineffective or people aren't adhering to them, but either way it's clearly not a sustainable way to continue. So far Boris is ignoring the lockdown extremists, but with France and Germany now returning to some form of lockdown, it does feel more likely we'll have further (unsustainable) restrictions imposed at a time of year when sadly depression and suicide already increases.

 

[island]

We way well get this in Cornwall, where three deaths mentioning Covid on the certificate have been registered since July. Plymouth is likely to go into Tier 2 within days, and someone with undue influence will pipe up 'Saltash is just over the Tamar bridge, and is in Cornwall, so that should be included too.' Trouble is, Cornwall is a Unitary Authority, so Land's End, ninety miles from Saltash, would have to be treated the same, and West Cornwall has far more populace from the nearer-Plymouth East.

There is nothing requiring the entirety of a local authority area to be in the one tier. Several of the previous local restrictions regulations had effect in different electoral wards, and one of the iterations of the Leicester local restrictions regulations did it by postcode.

 

[Mojo]

So under the Nottinghamshire restrictions, all shops will be banned from selling alcohol after 21.00 each day, except if sold in a restaurant with a substantial meal when it may be sold until close at 22.00.

I thought the purpose of the tier system was that the rules were clear and set out in advance, and the same nationwide? I know Liverpool originally closed gymnasiums but this was revoked a short while later

 

[DB]

So under the Nottinghamshire restrictions, all shops will be banned from selling alcohol after 21.00 each day, except if sold in a restaurant with a substantial meal when it may be sold until close at 22.00.

I thought the purpose of the tier system was that the rules were clear and set out in advance, and the same nationwide? I know Liverpool originally closed gymnasiums but this was revoked a short while later

The only thing that's clear is that anything introduced will be unclear, last minute and a knee-jerk reaction.

 

[infobleep]

No. And there is no set number of cases that an area must drop down to, in order to exit a higher tier.
Welcome to Boris’ new show, ‘Play Your Cards Right’, where he listens to whoever shouts loudest (but only where the shout is ‘higher, HIGHER’ ...

No. Nottingham had more cases than Sheffield when the latter was put in Tier 3. Now the numbers in Nottingham have gone down it is going into Tier 3.

I thought this must be the case. However everyone is focusing how to get out of tier 3 and not how to get in it.

What I was trying to work out was if places have just over 100 cases is that close to being in tier 2. I guess it's very hard to say.

Being a university town, I'm surprised Guildford hasn't ended up in tier 2 or higher. Same for Brighton. They are at just over 100 each.

So under the Nottinghamshire restrictions, all shops will be banned from selling alcohol after 21.00 each day, except if sold in a restaurant with a substantial meal when it may be sold until close at 22.00.

I thought the purpose of the tier system was that the rules were clear and set out in advance, and the same nationwide? I know Liverpool originally closed gymnasiums but this was revoked a short while later

I have suggested that they have tiers with letters. So tier 1, tier 2, tier 3A tier 3B. Bit like platform numbers.

It may be confusing having 3A and 3B, just as it can be at Redhill Station but as it's already confusing I doubt it matters!

 

[DB]

I have suggested that they have tiers with letters. So tier 1, tier 2, tier 3A tier 3B. Bit like platform numbers.

It may be confusing having 3A and 3B, just as it can be at Redhill Station but as it's already confusing I doubt it matters!

Or they could just do what this was allegedly claimed to do, and have a clear set of criteria for each tier? But of course this government manages to fudge and make a mess of everything they try to do.

 

[infobleep]

Or they could just do what this was allegedly claimed to do, and have a clear set of criteria for each tier? But of course this government manages to fudge and make a mess of everything they try to do.

Well they could do that but why do that? It makes things less confusing.

Surely by tripping people up they can make some more cash from fines. I'm joking by the way as never put down to mallace what can be ascribed to incompetence. I think that's the right quote.

 

[Mojo]

I thought this must be the case. However everyone is focusing how to get out of tier 3 and not how to get in it.

What I was trying to work out was if places have just over 100 cases is that close to being in tier 2. I guess it's very hard to say.

Being a university town, I'm surprised Guildford hasn't ended up in tier 2 or higher. Same for Brighton. They are at just over 100 each.


I have suggested that they have tiers with letters. So tier 1, tier 2, tier 3A tier 3B. Bit like platform numbers.

It may be confusing having 3A and 3B, just as it can be at Redhill Station but as it's already confusing I doubt it matters!

The Mayor of the City of Bristol the other day claimed that they were going into “Tier 1 plus,” and the media refers to the Nottingham and Nottinghamshire restrictions as “Tier 3 plus,” although the government has denied that there is any such thing as “plus” restrictions.

It does seem that Nottingham and Nottinghamshire are subject to more restrictions than say Liverpool.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Absolutely - parts of the Bradford district have been under varying forms of enhanced restrictions since July yet cases are still rising. So either the measures are ineffective or people aren't adhering to them, but either way it's clearly not a sustainable way to continue. So far Boris is ignoring the lockdown extremists, but with France and Germany now returning to some form of lockdown, it does feel more likely we'll have further (unsustainable) restrictions imposed at a time of year when sadly depression and suicide already increases.

The London Ambulance Service tweeted that the number of suicide and attempted suicide incidents they’ve attended are running at 37 per day

I thought this must be the case. However everyone is focusing how to get out of tier 3 and not how to get in it.

What I was trying to work out was if places have just over 100 cases is that close to being in tier 2. I guess it's very hard to say.

Being a university town, I'm surprised Guildford hasn't ended up in tier 2 or higher. Same for Brighton. They are at just over 100 each.


I have suggested that they have tiers with letters. So tier 1, tier 2, tier 3A tier 3B. Bit like platform numbers.

It may be confusing having 3A and 3B, just as it can be at Redhill Station but as it's already confusing I doubt it matters!

But presumably no Kings Cross or Redhill option (Platform 0)

 

[DB]

The London Ambulance Service tweeted that the number of suicide and attempted suicide incidents they’ve attended are running at 37 per day

The government and Sage won't care about that though - it's not the virus.