Extensions of East-West Rail Past Oxford

[Manutd1999]

The current timetable plan for Phase 1 of East-West rail envisages 2ph from Milton Keynes to Oxford. Currently these are planned to terminate at Oxford but I wonder if there would be value in extending them eastwards? Would it be feasible to extend both services to Swindon? From there, 1ph could go to Bristol via Bath and 1ph to Cardiff.

This would extend the benefits of East-West Rail to a much larger catchment area. New services to Oxford from the west would be particularly valuable, avoiding the current need to change at Didcot. Capacity of the great western mainline could be an issue, but west of Didcot the line is less constrained.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The current timetable plan for Phase 1 of East-West rail envisages 2ph from Milton Keynes to Oxford. Currently these are planned to terminate at Oxford but I wonder if there would be value in extending them eastwards? Would it be feasible to extend both services to Swindon? From there, 1ph could go to Bristol via Bath and 1ph to Cardiff.

This would extend the benefits of East-West Rail to a much larger catchment area. New services to Oxford from the west would be particularly valuable, avoiding the current need to change at Didcot. Capacity of the great western mainline could be an issue, but west of Didcot the line is less constrained.

Oxford to Bristol/Bath has been tried before in the early 2000s, and even with price-dumped fares like the LNR Only ones it largely carried fresh air. 2 car DMUs would be a waste of capacity on the GWML, too. Can't see a lot of sense in that really.

 

[70014IronDuke]

Oxford to Bristol/Bath has been tried before in the early 2000s, and even with price-dumped fares like the LNR Only ones it largely carried fresh air. 2 car DMUs would be a waste of capacity on the GWML, too. Can't see a lot of sense in that really.

But these services were from Bicester (not a huge generator of traffic, especially back then) to Bristol, were they not? In addition, IIRC, it was not a clock-face timetable and trains were frequently cancelled, so not exactly the right way to build up customer confidence.

A decent service from Milton Keynes would have a far better chance of putting bottoms on seats west of Oxford, don't you think?

 

[Bletchleyite]

A decent service from Milton Keynes would have a far better chance of putting bottoms on seats west of Oxford, don't you think?

I can't see the demand being significant, no, and as I said a 2-car DMU on the GWML is a waste of capacity.

It would also transfer/import delays from the GWML to the WCML and vice versa.

 

[Falcon1200]

I wonder if there would be value in extending them eastwards? Would it be feasible to extend both services to Swindon?

I think you mean westwards?!!

Swindon is an interesting suggestion, as it would allow easier connections into the GWR services which do not call at Didcot, such as the Swansea trains, and also of course directly link Oxford with Swindon. Not sure going further could be justified, however. I would suggest that any such service should not call at Didcot due to the time penalty incurred by the reversal there.

 

[The Planner]

I think you mean westwards?!!

Swindon is an interesting suggestion, as it would allow easier connections into the GWR services which do not call at Didcot, such as the Swansea trains, and also of course directly link Oxford with Swindon. Not sure going further could be justified, however. I would suggest that any such service should not call at Didcot due to the time penalty incurred by the reversal there.

Why? depending on the stock, it could be as low as 3 minutes.

 

[Manutd1999]

I think you mean westwards?!!

Swindon is an interesting suggestion, as it would allow easier connections into the GWR services which do not call at Didcot, such as the Swansea trains, and also of course directly link Oxford with Swindon. Not sure going further could be justified, however. I would suggest that any such service should not call at Didcot due to the time penalty incurred by the reversal there.

I did indeed mean westwards

I would also skip the reversal at Didcot, it seems like an unnecessary complication when Didcot already has services both to Oxford and westwards.

Oxford to Bristol/Bath has been tried before in the early 2000s,

Bristol has grown a lot since then. The combined demand from Bristol/Swindon/Bath to Oxford/Milton Keynes is surely worth 1ph? The second hourly East-West rail service could terminate at Oxford as planned, or even go somewhere else (Cardiff?)

 

[coppercapped]

There have been some serious considerations by local government consortia inclusing Oxfordshire County Council for extending the East - West services past Oxford towards Didcot and beyond.

An example of such work is the Oxfordshire Rail Corridor Study prepared in 2019/20 by a group of organisations such as the DfT, Oxfordshire County Council, Oxford City Council, Network Rail, GWR and Chiltern Railways.

Among other things it suggests the following enhancements south of Oxford:

• 2024: Extend the Milton Keynes - Oxford trains to Didcot Parkway replacing the Didcot - Oxford shuttles
• 2028: Extend the Cambridge - Oxford trains to Bristol (1 tph) and Southampton (1 tph)

Obviously the world has changed since this was published, but it is clear that potential markets were seen to exist. The questions now are whether they can be economically served and when.

 

[JonathanH]

The moral of other infrastructure projects, and indeed railway operation, appears to be to start simple, then consider how things could be enhanced over time.

EWR services should be self contained when it opens, and then service extensions can be planned after.

 

[cle]

The moral of other infrastructure projects, and indeed railway operation, appears to be to start simple, then consider how things could be enhanced over time.

EWR services should be self contained when it opens, and then service extensions can be planned after.

This is very fair. Get it opened first. Maybe one day it'll be wired and running up to Manchester from Reading or whatever - but for now, open is good.

But let's remember that most reopenings have exceeded expectations especially when they greatly improve on what was there before.

Oxford to Bristol/Bath has been tried before in the early 2000s, and even with price-dumped fares like the LNR Only ones it largely carried fresh air. 2 car DMUs would be a waste of capacity on the GWML, too. Can't see a lot of sense in that really.

You're too insightful a poster for that. That is 20+ years ago. Can things not be re-tried? And has the population not grown overall, plus MK itself. And the economy of Oxford. And Bristol. Didcot and Bicester have ballooned - and the Village opened.

By the same rationale, we'd not even have the reopening at all, as it was dead in the 60s. Or The Borders.

Agree on 2 car services of course, although west of Didcot likely does have a few paths. But yes, 4 cars at a minimum (Voyagers can be that, on the GWML for years, probably less seats too lol) - and more importantly, needs to keep up with the 80x paths. I would think a service to Swindon, Bath and Bristol across to Oxford and MK/WCML would be very well used and incite all sorts of new journeys. Or try another service on the Golden Valley if the GWML is too fast. Or alternatively, Cardiff.

 

[fishwomp]

[.]
Agree on 2 car services of course, although west of Didcot likely does have a few paths. But yes, 4 cars at a minimum (Voyagers can be that, on the GWML for years, probably less seats too lol) - and more importantly, needs to keep up with the 80x paths. I would think a service to Swindon, Bath and Bristol across to Oxford and MK/WCML would be very well used and incite all sorts of new journeys. Or try another service on the Golden Valley if the GWML is too fast. Or alternatively, Cardiff.

Add a station at Grove for Wantage on the A338 exactly where the Challow loops start/end, and it would boost the commuter potential of those towns.

 

[JamesT]

The EWR website suggests the most likely first extension beyond Oxford would be a reopened Cowley branch line. That wouldn’t have the issues with interacting with GWML services.
I’ve also seen it suggested that to get any more services between Oxford and Didcot may need four tracking.

 

[swt_passenger]

The EWR website suggests the most likely first extension beyond Oxford would be a reopened Cowley branch line. That wouldn’t have the issues with interacting with GWML services.
I’ve also seen it suggested that to get any more services between Oxford and Didcot may need four tracking.

One of the NR route studies suggested extending through in place of the GWR Didcot to Oxford DMU stoppers. I don’t think that would survive electrification to Oxford though, and it would presumably make a problem out of Oxford to Banbury stopper services?

I agree with the idea to just get the service to Oxford running first and only think about extensions later. The Cowley extension has also been regularly discussed in terms of extending an existing Chiltern service, ie from Marylebone.

 

[peterson]

Milton Keynes to Reading would be a very popular service. The Reading extension was included in early East West rail literature, but seemed to vanish. Presumably they're looking to keep things simple to start with.

 

[zwk500]

Bristol has grown a lot since then. The combined demand from Bristol/Swindon/Bath to Oxford/Milton Keynes is surely worth 1ph? The second hourly East-West rail service could terminate at Oxford as planned, or even go somewhere else (Cardiff?)

2 places being big does not mean there is necessarily a large demand for travel between them. I've lived in MK and now live in Bristol, and the number of times I heard of anybody travelling between those places was fairly small. The key question for travel is 'What can I do there that I cannot do here?'. If you're in Bristol the only reason to visit MK would be a work meeting or a social catchup. You might have a little more travel in the reverse direction as Bristol has a bigger uni and more tourism. Oxford in the middle gets a better flow from both because of the tourism and the uni as well, but Students and tourists tend to be more price-sensitive than time-sensitive and a single connection at Didcot for Oxford is fine.
Then add in the extra conflicting moves at Oxford to get trains on/off EWR instead of being able to tuck them into the bay platforms.

You're too insightful a poster for that. That is 20+ years ago. Can things not be re-tried? And has the population not grown overall, plus MK itself. And the economy of Oxford. And Bristol. Didcot and Bicester have ballooned - and the Village opened.

Given the costs involved in setting up a new rail service it's not unreasonable to have a reasonable expectation before trying things. What happened 20 years ago isn't too helpful, but today's ticket sales and private car travel is and the fact that the existing road network is not set up for MK-M4 journeys should be a reasonably good indication there's little demand.

I’ve also seen it suggested that to get any more services between Oxford and Didcot may need four tracking.

Depends on the stopping patterns, of course.

Milton Keynes to Reading would be a very popular service. The Reading extension was included in early East West rail literature, but seemed to vanish. Presumably they're looking to keep things simple to start with.

Your definition of 'very' might be doing some rather heavy lifting there. Comparatively little traffic would go all the way from MK to Reading, it'd be MK-Oxford and Bicester-Reading most likely. MKC to Reading via London would be c.1h20ish, depending on your connection at Paddington, but from Pad you'd be on your train to the final destination. MKC to Reading via Bicester would be 1h15ish, with shorter trains and a change at Reading to factor in.

 

[SynthD]

Is there room for reasonably frequent Reading-MK and electric Pad-Oxf?

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Oxford to Bristol/Bath has been tried before in the early 2000s, and even with price-dumped fares like the LNR Only ones it largely carried fresh air

This is a canard repeated too often on here. The Oxford-Bristols, which I used numerous times, had loadings which were entirely in keeping with GWML services at the time. They were busy in the peaks, quiet in mid-afternoon. There was no significant price dumping. Given the advent of “Science Vale” and the development of Bristol as an economic centre, they absolutely should be considered once again.

 

[fishwomp]

This is a canard repeated too often on here. The Oxford-Bristols, which I used numerous times, had loadings which were entirely in keeping with GWML services at the time. They were busy in the peaks, quiet in mid-afternoon. There was no significant price dumping. Given the advent of “Science Vale” and the development of Bristol as an economic centre, they absolutely should be considered once again.

They were also a great help to journeys from Oxford to South Wales. Instead of a change at both Didcot and Swindon, you could change only at Swindon which saved a good bit of time when the HSTs were less frequent than pre-covid services of 2019 and current service levels.

 

[zwk500]

This is a canard repeated too often on here. The Oxford-Bristols, which I used numerous times, had loadings which were entirely in keeping with GWML services at the time. They were busy in the peaks, quiet in mid-afternoon. There was no significant price dumping. Given the advent of “Science Vale” and the development of Bristol as an economic centre, they absolutely should be considered once again.

Equally, given the advent of video meetings now being absolutely standard working practice, things can go both ways. A handful of postgraduates on research trips aren't going to pay for a train service. And if the demand ends at Oxford, the case for a through service is much worse, instead of having a self-contained Bristol-Oxford that doesn't import as much delay.

 

[rapmastaj]

Oxford to Bristol/Bath/Swindon would be very popular, there's a lot of links between these places. No way would it be limited to business or 'research' trips.

It's a journey I've made many times and the wait at Didcot is a pain in the backside.

Not many people will travel Bristol - Milton Keynes though, they're just too distant and dont have much in common.

 

[InTheEastMids]

Given the costs involved in setting up a new rail service it's not unreasonable to have a reasonable expectation before trying things. What happened 20 years ago isn't too helpful, but today's ticket sales and private car travel is and the fact that the existing road network is not set up for MK-M4 journeys should be a reasonably good indication there's little demand.

But it's a bit of a catch 22 situation, isn't it? Part of the reason there is less demand from MK towards west of England and South Wales is that the connectivity is pretty lousy (both car and train). So creating these new opportunities is likely to induce demand. But that also means that on Day 1 there is probably not going to be demand for a genuine LDHS service from Bristol to Cambridge or Southampton to Northampton.

NR did a study last year on connectivity that EWR might enable between places off the EWR route (link is below), with a focus on journey times. In summary, as you'd expect there's big benefits for journeys between 2 core EWR stations. However, the journey time reduction generally dissipates as you move either or both start- and end-points away from the EWR core, and EWR is slower if both points are served by frequent high-speed intercity services from London.

So, this might suggest that any plan to extend services beyond the core should focus on places adjacent to the core e.g. Didcot/Swindon, Northampton.

So the way I'm currently thinking is that extending an EWR service to Bristol might happen because the case for additional Bristol-Swindon-Oxford is strong, and it's operationally better to have them run through Oxford rather than terminate, not because there is (today) all this latent demand for Bath-MKC. The direct Bath-MKC is a nice-to-have.

Link to NR EWR study:

https://sacuksprodnrdigital0001.blob.core.windows.net/regional-long-term-planning/North,%20West%20and%20Central/East%20West%20Main%20Line%20Strategic%20Statement%202022.pdf

 

[anthony263]

GWRs MD was looking at direct Bristol to Oxford trains again

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Equally, given the advent of video meetings now being absolutely standard working practice, things can go both ways. A handful of postgraduates on research trips aren't going to pay for a train service. And if the demand ends at Oxford, the case for a through service is much worse, instead of having a self-contained Bristol-Oxford that doesn't import as much delay.

Yes, the market has definitely changed. But if anything that means the potential service merits looking at afresh, rather than relying on passenger numbers from 20 years ago.

 

[Falcon1200]

(Referring to reversing at Didcot)

Why? depending on the stock, it could be as low as 3 minutes.

That is very tight, and does it comprise the running time into Didcot station, the reversal there, and the running time to Foxhall Junction, as opposed to going straight round the West Curve?

 

[peterson]

Your definition of 'very' might be doing some rather heavy lifting there. Comparatively little traffic would go all the way from MK to Reading, it'd be MK-Oxford and Bicester-Reading most likely. MKC to Reading via London would be c.1h20ish, depending on your connection at Paddington, but from Pad you'd be on your train to the final destination. MKC to Reading via Bicester would be 1h15ish, with shorter trains and a change at Reading to factor in.

Possibly. But you wouldn't be on your train to your destination from Paddington if your destination was stations to Bracknell, to Guildford, to Basingstoke.... And via London is likely to be a higher price than East West Rail.

Reading to MK/Bedford could provide a key link in a kind of outer orbital, maybe one day joining up with North Downs. But even without that, you've got the passenger numbers at Reading that would likely make the service well used, if nothing else adding the benefit of further capacity and frequency to Reading-Oxford.

 

[The Planner]

(Referring to reversing at Didcot)



That is very tight, and does it comprise the running time into Didcot station, the reversal there, and the running time to Foxhall Junction, as opposed to going straight round the West Curve?

No, the reversal itself can be as low as 3 minutes in the station as that is what the timetable planning rules stipulate.
Using a 165/1 as a proxy. Wantage Road to Foxhall is 5 minutes, Foxhall to Didcot North is 1½, Didcot North to Kennington is 6 allowing for the slower speed off the curve, so 12½ total. Going into Didcot its 5½ from Wantage Road, 3 minute dwell/reversal, 2 to Didcot North and 6 to Kennington Jn, so 16½ total. 4 minutes difference in total. I'm not convinced this would be a massively journey time critical route, especially if the suggestion is to add a new Wantage Road station as well.

 

[RailWonderer]

Wouldn't an Oxford - Bristol service have to reverse at Worcester?

 

[The Planner]

Wouldn't an Oxford - Bristol service have to reverse at Worcester?

Why? Oxford Didcot Swindon and then whichever route you want to Bristol?

 

[fishwomp]

Wouldn't an Oxford - Bristol service have to reverse at Worcester?

Definitely, it would have gone the wrong way.

 

[Falcon1200]

No, the reversal itself can be as low as 3 minutes in the station as that is what the timetable planning rules stipulate.

Interesting figures; How long was the previous Oxford/Bristol service allowed to reverse at Didcot?