I doubt that Cornwall has ever been very profitable. It's difficult to look at the old First accounts for the area (as you have to separate out the North Devon and Plymouth ops, and the Somerset ops in there) but First Devon & Cornwall/First South West was not a superb performer.
Just looking at
@Andyh82's comments (and backed up by
@Goldfish62), they hit on something that I've long thought - it is just an opinion but here goes.
The Alex Carter/Marc Morgan Huws era had two distinct parts.
- From 2014 to 2019, it was putting the business on a firm footing. In fact, First had already closed North Devon and gained tenders from Western Greyhound. However, they then looked to move things forward by cutting off the loss making Devon ops by selling to Stagecoach (and so mitigate exit costs), competed against Webberbus in Somerset and eventually pushed them out of business and did the same against Western Greyhound. They were also able to obtain investment from First Group, underpinned by commitments from Cornwall Council, and they did a lot of good stuff in developing the operations and image with the Tinner fleet (which is when the 14/18 were dropped from 10 to 15 mins) plus other developments. However, even in the best year (2019), half the profits came from a dividend from Somerset Passenger Solutions.
- Then came two things almost simultaneously. Covid was one and when you're still only running at 85% of previous patronage, that makes marginal work challenging but even more so when costs are increasing faster than overall inflation.
- However, I think the failure to win the Cornwall tenders was a much more important issue than was made out at the time. They effectively lost guaranteed income and contribution to fixed overheads. There were comments at the time that sounded like a dumped boyfriend saying that they'd find someone prettier and fitter... Talking about losing low margin work, and they could focus on higher margin operations - all part of Vision 2020.
- At the time, I think I said that some were marginal (like Falmouth Coaster) whilst I was always very sceptical about Exeter City Tour and the Lizard network (though these weren't helped by poor reliability with elderly vehicles). That was another issue - operational issues that weren't a feature before suddenly were, like the overoptimistic DayTripper network or the Newquay sunseeker.
- Instead, this period was a strange time (albeit fabulous for the gricer) where liveries were suddenly introduced, a flurry of super-annuated open toppers appeared, and you had strange moves like the King Harry Coaches acquisition, the Minehead open top travel office, the Lands End bus/waiting room, and even the conversion of a Solo to an open air format.
I have always been one to praise the efforts of AC/MMH in the earlier period. However, like a football manager who stays "true to their attacking principles" even though they're getting beaten by improved teams, it seemed like they didn't really respond to the changing circumstances.
I don't think they'll be upping sticks just yet but it'll be an interesting period. The Cornwall tenders come up in 2028 (IIRC) and so the tender process will probably commence mid 2026? Be interesting to see what happens but Cornwall is difficult operating territory and, like earlier posters, it is difficult to sustain two major operators in that area.