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From Monday 19th July - Government has laid Regulations revoking (most) restrictions

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brad465

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Hopefully the same will happen to England over the next few weeks showing that relaxing of masks makes little difference and its more about people being very close together!
Partly that, but maybe also let's just float the weird concept that it doesn't matter what we do, beyond acquiring immunity, nature will do whatever nature does and there's very little we can do about it.
 
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Cdd89

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Absolutely. I am wary of attempts to ascribe behavioural causality to the recent fall because it indirectly justifies NPIs and restrictions; we have evidence of places peaking naturally without such events to credit.
 

WelshBluebird

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There isn't really a "but". Positive tests have nearly halved in the last week despite the number of tests staying virtually the same.

Of course, the vocal minority of locktivists are continuing to bleat:
How exactly is someone urging caution over the latest good numbers a locktivist? I hope as much as anyone else here that the numbers continue to decrease, but it does take time for the impact of lifting restrictions to show in the case numbers, especially as the first weekend of "freedom" has only been this weekend so it will take time for any potential spread to show itself in the numbers. It's worth saying that during the euros we specifically saw spike between 10 and 14 days after each England and Scotland game, so it makes sense to give it that amount of time after last week before celebrating too much.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Absolutely. I am wary of attempts to ascribe behavioural causality to the recent fall because it indirectly justifies NPIs and restrictions; we have evidence of places peaking naturally without such events to credit.
The peak we've seen is the result of Step 3 and change of policy in education establishments which like all previous waves runs upto a peak and then naturally moderates as the current dominant virus strain runs out of hosts. Within a week we will see another uptick in cases probably quite rapidly given nightclubs and packed pubs are ideal breeding environments but again it will peak and drop back just as quickly. However, one thing to note is cases exclude people who have previously tested positive although I believe its a small number so thats not the cause that some are suggesting.
 

Dent

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Within a week we will see another uptick in cases probably quite rapidly given nightclubs and packed pubs are ideal breeding environments but again it will peak and drop back just as quickly.

What makes you so certain that that will happen? There is no sign of it happening so far.
 

778

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How exactly is someone urging caution over the latest good numbers a locktivist? I hope as much as anyone else here that the numbers continue to decrease, but it does take time for the impact of lifting restrictions to show in the case numbers, especially as the first weekend of "freedom" has only been this weekend so it will take time for any potential spread to show itself in the numbers. It's worth saying that during the euros we specifically saw spike between 10 and 14 days after each England and Scotland game, so it makes sense to give it that amount of time after last week before celebrating too much.
I read somewhere that delta has an incubation period of 4 days. Cases peaked on July 15th (60,000 cases), four days after the final of the euros.

That would mean we should start seeing the impact of step 4, in last Fridays case numbers. I am not sure step 4 will have as much of an impact as step 3 did. Schools closing will probably, cancel out the effects of nightclubs opening. Also younger people who drive transmission, will now be getting thier second doses.

I do agree that it is too early to start celebrating.
 

Bertie the bus

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What makes you so certain that that will happen? There is no sign of it happening so far.
Of course there is no sign of it happening so far as it is too early. Almost everybody worth listening to has said cases will increase. It is also common sense that is the case when more people are spending longer in close proximity to other people. If you don't want to believe it will happen then fine, but it almost certainly will.
 

farleigh

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Of course there is no sign of it happening so far as it is too early. Almost everybody worth listening to has said cases will increase. It is also common sense that is the case when more people are spending longer in close proximity to other people. If you don't want to believe it will happen then fine, but it almost certainly will.
When do you think they will start to increase - or when have the experts said they will start to increase?

Have they put a date on it?
 

bramling

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Partly that, but maybe also let's just float the weird concept that it doesn't matter what we do, beyond acquiring immunity, nature will do whatever nature does and there's very little we can do about it.

This is something which in the medium term needs to be emphasised.

Stuff like masks and toilet rolls is simply a way to fool people into thinking they have some control.
 

Darandio

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This is something which in the medium term needs to be emphasised.

Stuff like masks and toilet rolls is simply a way to fool people into thinking they have some control.

Not easy when you have a government that has been telling everyone we will beat/defeat this virus for the last 18 months. Considering the amount of times I still see it repeated on social media then many people seem to believe it's possible.
 

takno

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This is something which in the medium term needs to be emphasised.

Stuff like masks and toilet rolls is simply a way to fool people into thinking they have some control.
Toilet rolls serve a very important purpose. Really don't want to see people giving up using those...
 

Bayum

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They certainly have a purpose, just not in relation to SARS-CoV-2!
Well… A lot of those infected with the delta variant have tremendous, watery stools so you could say they have quite a big relationship with COVID!
 

brad465

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They certainly have a purpose, just not in relation to SARS-CoV-2!
You say that, but this is the Daily Star front page tomorrow (I know they're a gossip paper so I imagine this report is nonsense but someone else would have been spreading rumours/ideas for them to report this):

1627250745434.png
 

Nicholas Lewis

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What makes you so certain that that will happen? There is no sign of it happening so far.
Because 18-30 year old group are the least vaccinated and the ones that have been denied these social experiences for last 16 months. As i say my take is we will see an uptick in cases to a high peak quite quickly but it will drop away very quickly what we need is for govt to hold its nerve. Then come mid August we will have clear direction of travel on a declining trajectory again. When education resumes in full we will be the next test but by then at even current reduced levels of 1st doses we ought to be up another 5% to low 90's and 80% at 2nd dose which ought to be sufficient to hold it at manageable levels.
 

Dent

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Because 18-30 year old group are the least vaccinated and the ones that have been denied these social experiences for last 16 months. As i say my take is we will see an uptick in cases to a high peak quite quickly but it will drop away very quickly what we need is for govt to hold its nerve. Then come mid August we will have clear direction of travel on a declining trajectory again. When education resumes in full we will be the next test but by then at even current reduced levels of 1st doses we ought to be up another 5% to low 90's and 80% at 2nd dose which ought to be sufficient to hold it at manageable levels.
That's all speculation. You didn't say it was your "take", you stated as fact that that was going to happen. It is not a certain fact, and you have no basis to claim that it is.
 

takno

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You say that, but this is the Daily Star front page tomorrow (I know they're a gossip paper so I imagine this report is nonsense but someone else would have been spreading rumours/ideas for them to report this):
The Daily Star headlines are a lot cleverer than they appear, and usually pretty amusing. What this one does do is spread a general message that the boffins are off their rocker and we're wearing the masks at the wrong end. A good effort
 

DelayRepay

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That's all speculation. You didn't say it was your "take", you stated as fact that that was going to happen. It is not a certain fact, and you have no basis to claim that it is.
Are you disagreeing that we will seen an uptick, or that the uptick will peak quite quickly?

Because whilst the experts don't all agree on much, they do all seem to agree that we should expect an uptick in cases following July 19. The disagreements are around how large this uptick will be, how long it will last, how it will affect the other metrics such as hospitalisations, and whether/at what point we should start to worry.
 

Dent

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Are you disagreeing that we will seen an uptick, or that the uptick will peak quite quickly?

Because whilst the experts don't all agree on much, they do all seem to agree that we should expect an uptick in cases following July 19. The disagreements are around how large this uptick will be, how long it will last, how it will affect the other metrics such as hospitalisations, and whether/at what point we should start to worry.

My point was that there is a difference between speculation and fact, and I was calling out a post which presented something as fact which was acctually only speculation.

As an aside, however much "experts" may agree on there being an uptick, it is showing no signs of materialising.
 

takno

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Are you disagreeing that we will seen an uptick, or that the uptick will peak quite quickly?

Because whilst the experts don't all agree on much, they do all seem to agree that we should expect an uptick in cases following July 19. The disagreements are around how large this uptick will be, how long it will last, how it will affect the other metrics such as hospitalisations, and whether/at what point we should start to worry.
There was some speculation from experts on the BBC website yesterday that there won't be an uptick at all.

Many of the remaining interventions were clearly ineffective and fairly widely ignored, and the likely more effective interventions like people staying out of work are unwinding much more gradually. More importantly, the decrease in kids in school is likely to have a more significant impact the other way.
 

sjpowermac

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Many of the remaining interventions were clearly ineffective and fairly widely ignored, and the likely more effective interventions like people staying out of work are unwinding much more gradually. More importantly, the decrease in kids in school is likely to have a more significant impact the other way.
There have been many posts in recent days pointing to schools as being a driver of infections, but I’ve yet to see any conclusive proof.

Having seen the arrangements schools in my city were making, I made the following posts back in August 2020:

The measures introduced by schools will do little to stop any spread of the virus (if it is present in the community)
For the avoidance of doubt, I fully support the reopening of schools in the U.K. though I do think the way this is being done will lead to an increase in transmission of the virus. Time will tell...
They brought forth several pages of vitriol on the ‘Return to Education’ thread.

When I revisited various of those posts in December 2020, the following was one of the few polite replies:

That's the general pattern based on what I have experienced and people I know have experienced; students and teachers who do test positive tend to have likely got it outside a school setting.


An analysis of places visited was posted on here but it does not analyse where the infection is likely to have occurred.
Again, for the avoidance of doubt, I think schools should have remained open throughout the pandemic.

I’m genuinely curious though in the shift of attitude that posts claiming schools may have been a driver of infections now largely go unchallenged.

I know that @yorkie has provided some very helpful information previously on educational settings and wonder if I’ve missed something?
 

XAM2175

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Labour seem to have completely lost the plot - KS wants tests *in addition* to passports to gain entry.
My understanding is that Labour are proposing tests be accepted as an alternative to proof of vaccination.
 

takno

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Labour seem to have completely lost the plot - KS wants tests *in addition* to passports to gain entry.
Do you have a link for that? I can't find any recent quotes from Labour. I think I remember some mention last week from them that a negative test result was more useful than a vaccine passport, without any concrete position on whether either should be required.

In practice I suspect the best plan for Labour is probably not to hold a position at all until they have to, in the hopes that the Tories will back away from it on their own.
 

Watershed

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Wasn't really sure best place for this - some more developments on the Vaccine Passports front.

Suggestion they will be expanded to cover Premier League Football and other venues with capacity above 20k from October as well as University Lecture Theaters and Halls of Residence. Your guess is as good as mine as to why going to Millwall (capacity 21k) is more dangerous than Headingley (capacity 19k) - Are you really likely to come into contact with many more people at one over the other even accounting for travel to / away from the event.

Labour seem to have completely lost the plot - KS wants tests *in addition* to passports to gain entry.

Ultimately we need to appreciate that it is the un-vaccinated who are the ones really taking the real risk in choosing to attend such gatherings. As long as they are aware of that risk then putting in more rules and restrictions for everyone else really isn't a good idea.
The Times is reporting:
University students will have to be fully vaccinated to attend lectures or stay in halls of residence under plans being pushed by Boris Johnson.

The prime minister is said to have been “raging” about the relatively low vaccine uptake among young people and is determined to apply pressure.

It's utterly pathetic how the government tries to maintain the pretence of vaccination being 'voluntary' when seemingly every week there are proposals for a further part of daily life to be restricted to those who are vaccinated.
 

brad465

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So it turns out that while we were banging on about obesity making covid experiences more severe, restrictions have been completely counterproductive in trying to tackle covid problems in this area (many of us knew this already but now an actual study backs it up):



More than 40% of adults in England have gained weight during the pandemic, a survey suggests, with the average gain being half a stone (just over 3kg).

Public Health England (PHE), which surveyed 5,000 people, says Covid lockdowns and disrupted daily routines have made it challenging for people to eat healthy and keep fit.

Snacking and comfort eating were given as the main contributor by about half of those who said they were fatter.

PHE recommends a summer fitness drive.
 

DelayRepay

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So it turns out that while we were banging on about obesity making covid experiences more severe, restrictions have been completely counterproductive in trying to tackle covid problems in this area (many of us knew this already but now an actual study backs it up):


That reminds me of a post I made last year about 'Eat Out to Help Out', where I commented that I thought it odd that at the same time as trying to tackle obesity, the government were subsidising half price Big Macs.
 

takno

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That reminds me of a post I made last year about 'Eat Out to Help Out', where I commented that I thought it odd that at the same time as trying to tackle obesity, the government were subsidising half price Big Macs.
Big Macs come in for a lot of stick, but they aren't insanely high in calories, and at least with the eat-out-to-help-out scheme you were forced to get up off the sofa and go somewhere. Compared to restaurants of any kind I pretty much always over-order on takeaways, eating less-healthy food, and I don't even burn a couple of hundred calories getting to and from the restaurant
 
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