Have electric vehicles been "oversold" to the detriment of public transport, walking and cycling?

[AM9]

Will that apply to small rural communities or caravan sites? I doubt it

and how are all these cars to be disposed of? If 2/3 of all ICE cars were taken off the road overnight, that's 20 million, with 100 miilion tyres to dispose of

I didn't mention '20 million cars being taken off the road overnight'. Perhaps you could explain why you did.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Sep 2021 ==

Where are all these small communities that don't have a mains electricity supply or a generator?

(Yes, I know, a generator means no environmental gain, but they do need to go shopping etc, where there are chargers...)

More to the point, where do they get their diesel/petrol from now?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Actually to be fair I wasn't quite right saying charging off a generator in a rural settlement means no environmental gain. If they drove to a city it would - reduced particulate emissions.

That is the aspect people forget, and is arguably a more immediate issue because it is actually killing people now, of respiratory issues.

 

[AM9]

Actually to be fair I wasn't quite right saying charging off a generator in a rural settlement means no environmental gain. If they drove to a city it would - reduced particulate emissions.

That is the aspect people forget, and is arguably a more immediate issue because it is actually killing people now, of respiratory issues.

Yes, I suspect that tyre particulate shedding and their accoustic road noise will be (or already is) an area of design improvement.

 

[Bald Rick]

Will that apply to small rural communities or caravan sites? I doubt it

and how are all these cars to be disposed of? If 2/3 of all ICE cars were taken off the road overnight, that's 20 million, with 100 miilion tyres to dispose of

what, you mean like all the caravan sites that have power already ?

no one is suggesting that 2/3 of ICE cars will be taken off the road ‘overnight’. That would be highly impractical.

 

[paul1609]

Indeed, it would certainly make it much cheaper for those second cars or cars which are almost all used fairly locally (and there's quite a few of them) which would almost never do more than 200 miles (and rarely do more than 50) and so could have a range of (say) 140 miles. As that would not only mean a cheaper battery but also not quite such a large one and so could put the upfront cost on a par with ICE cars.

With the other cost savings it would therefore change the economics significantly in the favour of BEV's (at least for those who mostly do shorter distance driving).

Quite possibly to the point where it would be no more expensive even if you had to use fairly costly public chargers (i.e. those with no charging capability at home or work).

The chemistry of Sodium Ion batteries currently is that they have a lower power density than Lithium so you would need bigger batteries to maintain the same performance/range about 15% bigger I believe. There is also issues with electrode life that makes them unsuitable/ far less suitable for fast charging.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The chemistry of Sodium Ion batteries currently is that they have a lower power density than Lithium so you would need bigger batteries to maintain the same performance/range about 15% bigger I believe. There is also issues with electrode life that makes them unsuitable/ far less suitable for fast charging.

That sort of "runaround" car wouldn't need fast charging if you had a driveway, and it's already been stated that a range of say 100 miles would be sufficient for such a car. One overnight charge a week on normal 13A mains would be fine.

 

[DustyBin]

That sort of "runaround" car wouldn't need fast charging if you had a driveway, and it's already been stated that a range of say 100 miles would be sufficient for such a car. One overnight charge a week on normal 13A mains would be fine.

A lot of the problem is purely psychological; as you say a car with a range of even 100 miles would be sufficient for a good number of people. It just doesn’t sound a lot. Added to that I suspect a lot of people simply don’t realise how few miles they cover. If you commute say 5 miles each way 5 days a week, go shopping on Saturday and visit nearby friends/family on Sunday, 100 miles range would suffice (in reality there’s time for at least a partial charge amongst that lot as well). Obviously that’s just an example but it’s probably not an unusual usage pattern for somebody with a “runaround” or the second car in a two car household.

 

[341o2]

I didn't mention '20 million cars being taken off the road overnight'. Perhaps you could explain why you did.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Sep 2021 ==


More to the point, where do they get their diesel/petrol from now?

I used the word "if" and while I did not say this of yourself, some people are posting on social media as such, even one news item "End of the road for ICE cars in 2030" showing a car becoming a museum exhibit
True, there has been a decline in filling stations in rural areas, but incorporating a visit to a filling station in connection with a weekly shop is what most of us do.

 

[paul1609]

That sort of "runaround" car wouldn't need fast charging if you had a driveway, and it's already been stated that a range of say 100 miles would be sufficient for such a car. One overnight charge a week on normal 13A mains would be fine.

I think you are being a tadge over optimistic there. My 40 KW Nissan Leaf Company Car had a usable range of about 80 to 100 miles depending on the conditions. A full charge on a 13 amp socket in both my experience and Nissans takes around 19 hours. I dont have a fast charger and as Heathrow Airport 92 miles was a typical destination I often needed a near full charge, in practice mine was plugged in all the time it was home. The off peak tariff round here is 7 hours so if you are using a full batteries worth a week to take advantage over off peak you are going to need to charge at least 3 nights.

 

[341o2]

what, you mean like all the caravan sites that have power already ?

no one is suggesting that 2/3 of ICE cars will be taken off the road ‘overnight’. That would be highly impractical.

Yes, they have electricity, but often parking next to your caravan is not possible, quite apart from the trip hazard of cables from the caravan to the car.
I had to smile when visitors to a glamping site complained about a power cut, living in a rural area, high winds usually knock out the power cables a few times a year.
Noone on this site has suggested that ICE cars will disappear overnight, but there are other sites which seem to indicate this will be the case. But if it takes 5 or 10 years, it is still a problem which has to be addressed.

 

[Factotum]

As adoption increases there will be more chargers and getting petrol and diesel will become less easy.

When there is no longer a petrol station within 10k of my house is when I will seriously consider going electric.
Given my low usage cost of fuel is not a major problem. Even if it cost £1 a kilometer to use an ICE vehicle it would still take 25,000k to recover the cost of an EV.
I am not against EVs in principle but it would need a properly thought out case before I buy one. And the number of other users wouldn't be part of that case

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Sep 2021 ==

If anything replaces BEVs, it won't be FCEVs! They are just BEVs with reduced battery capacity and the hydrogen equipment (tanks & FCs) in their place. I highly doubt that they'll catch on in light vehicles outside of super-high mileage drivers for who the range/energy-addition-time is super important. This image shows a weight/distance diagram indicating likely energy sources* (developed by Toyota, Hyundai and Daimler, some of the largest proponents of FCEVs so expect it to be fairly heavily biased!):

Fuel cells start to win out as you get into the realms of daily trips of more than 100km or over 10t of weight. For the vast majority of people, BEV is entirely adequate. I would expect that we may see FCEVs dominate the "motorway muncher" market, with BEVs for everything else, along the lines of Diesel/Petrol (at least, pre VED nonsense), with FCEVs inevitably carrying a pretty big premium in terms of both purchase cost and fuel cost. Once beyond the realms of light vehicles it's another matter, but that's not the scope of this thread!


*damned if I can find the original source of this however!

All that assumes that technology doesn't advance in the next ten years which it most certainly will. My worry is that we are adopting a technology which will be obsolete in ten years time but that we will be stuck with because of the extensive infra structure built to serve it

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Sep 2021 ==

A lot of the problem is purely psychological; as you say a car with a range of even 100 miles would be sufficient for a good number of people. It just doesn’t sound a lot. Added to that I suspect a lot of people simply don’t realise how few miles they cover. If you commute say 5 miles each way 5 days a week, go shopping on Saturday and visit nearby friends/family on Sunday, 100 miles range would suffice (in reality there’s time for at least a partial charge amongst that lot as well). Obviously that’s just an example but it’s probably not an unusual usage pattern for somebody with a “runaround” or the second car in a two car household.

And drive 1000 miles on their weeks holiday. As I keep saying you can't plan for the average you have to plan for the outliers.
In an ideal world you would have a small economical car for commuting and a large, roomy, car for holidays and business trips. But few people can afford two cars so they settle for the bigger one.

 

[Bletchleyite]

And drive 1000 miles on their weeks holiday. As I keep saying you can't plan for the average you have to plan for the outliers.

Most people go on holiday by air these days, not car. And you can charge while on holiday!

In an ideal world you would have a small economical car for commuting and a large, roomy, car for holidays and business trips. But few people can afford two cars so they settle for the bigger one.

Rubbish. Most households have two cars, sometimes even more. Typically they are exactly as you describe - a small runaround which basically never leaves the town and a large family estate or SUV.

 

[AM9]

... Rubbish. Most households have two cars, sometimes even more. Typically they are exactly as you describe - a small runaround which basically never leaves the town and a large family estate or SUV.

I wouldn't say 'most households', there are plenty without any car and quite a large proportion of the rest have downsized to one. Among those that have chosen (and continue to maintain) a lifestyle heavily reliant on access to a car are probably in a majority.

 

[DustyBin]

When there is no longer a petrol station within 10k of my house is when I will seriously consider going electric.
Given my low usage cost of fuel is not a major problem. Even if it cost £1 a kilometer to use an ICE vehicle it would still take 25,000k to recover the cost of an EV.
I am not against EVs in principle but it would need a properly thought out case before I buy one. And the number of other users wouldn't be part of that case

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Sep 2021 ==


All that assumes that technology doesn't advance in the next ten years which it most certainly will. My worry is that we are adopting a technology which will be obsolete in ten years time but that we will be stuck with because of the extensive infra structure built to serve it

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Sep 2021 ==



And drive 1000 miles on their weeks holiday. As I keep saying you can't plan for the average you have to plan for the outliers.
In an ideal world you would have a small economical car for commuting and a large, roomy, car for holidays and business trips. But few people can afford two cars so they settle for the bigger one.

The situation I described was only an example of how a small car with a relatively limited range would be suitable for some people. The fact that the Nissan Leaf and similar cars actually sell proves this market exists, and I expect demand would grow should the cars be more affordable. A lot of people who only make occasional long journeys would choose an alternative means of transport if their limited range EV afforded other benefits such as low running costs throughout the year.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wouldn't say 'most households', there are plenty without any car and quite a large proportion of the rest have downsized to one. Among those that have chosen (and continue to maintain) a lifestyle heavily reliant on access to a car are probably in a majority.

Outside of London, by far the majority of people "have chosen and continue to maintain a lifestyle heavily reliant on access to a car". The views on this Forum do not represent the majority.

 

[DustyBin]

Outside of London, by far the majority of people "have chosen and continue to maintain a lifestyle heavily reliant on access to a car". The views on this Forum do not represent the majority.

I agree, London is unique in regard to public transport provision in the UK. Ive actually said myself that if I lived there and only needed to travel within the city I’d keep a couple of “toys” in the garage and dispense with an everyday car.

 

[AM9]

Outside of London, by far the majority of people "have chosen and continue to maintain a lifestyle heavily reliant on access to a car". The views on this Forum do not represent the majority.

I couldn't afford a car when I left home and happily built a lifestyle around not having one. I haven't really changed though since I lived in Mid and North-East Essex, and South Hampshire, despite being considerably better off financially now.
The changes in energy acqisition and the use of it for travel, amongst other things, will certainly require some changes in activites across the country. I doubt that it will be easy to carry on exactly as before. The availability of EVs at the same equivalent cost as current IC vehicles will mitigate some of the changes but not all.

 

[stuu]

Rubbish. Most households have two cars, sometimes even more. Typically they are exactly as you describe - a small runaround which basically never leaves the town and a large family estate or SUV.

35% of households (ONS, 2018 figure), have more than one car. So no, most households are not as you describe

Back to the topic in hand, I was out on my bike this morning and was slightly surprised to be overtaken by a Volkswagen ID3 with Italian plates. Clearly they had figured out how to go long distances using an EV

 

[Bletchleyite]

I couldn't afford a car when I left home and happily built a lifestyle around not having one.

You aren't "most people". Go round any suburban housing estate and look how many driveways don't contain at least one car.

It is clearly possible, with varying levels of constraint, to live in the UK without a car. But most people outside London choose to have at least one.

 

[Bald Rick]

Even if it cost £1 a kilometer to use an ICE vehicle it would still take 25,000k to recover the cost of an EV

no it wouldn’t, that’s rubbish.

 

[AM9]

When there is no longer a petrol station within 10k of my house is when I will seriously consider going electric.
Given my low usage cost of fuel is not a major problem. Even if it cost £1 a kilometer to use an ICE vehicle it would still take 25,000k to recover the cost of an EV.

By the time petrol stations are getting inconveniently scarce, the acquisition cost of a secondhand EV will be similar to that of an equivalent IC car, - the running costs will be much lower, both because the infrastructure will be in place for the majority of motorists and government cost measures to drive the few IC cars off the road and the commercial disincentive to suply a miniscule market of resistant IC users will price them off the road. If the higher cost of IC vehicle use doesn't clear the roads, the increasing restrictions on where their pollution will be tolerated will actually prevent many journeys being completed.

 

[Factotum]

no it wouldn’t, that’s rubbish.

Why is it rubbish? Do the math.

If I keep my ICE and it costs a £1 a mile to run it will cost £25,000 to travel the twenty-five thousand miles I plan to travel in the next ten years.
If I spend £25,000 pounds on an EV which costs nothing to run (highly unlikely) it will cost me £25,000 (plus £5000 lost interest on the capital) to travel he twenty-five thousand miles I plan to travel in the next ten years.

It is an undeniable fact that, for someone who has a decent ICE vehicle, the capital outlay (or hire charge) for an EV at the moment far exceeds any savings from the lower cost of running an EV Only if you are already planning to replace your vehicle is it worth giving serious consideration to an EV. If my current car reaches the end of its life before I do I will almost certainly ut a used EV

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Sep 2021 ==

By the time petrol stations are getting inconveniently scarce, the acquisition cost of a secondhand EV will be similar to that of an equivalent IC car, -

And that is when I will buy one

 

[Bletchleyite]

If I keep my ICE and it costs a £1 a mile to run it will cost £25,000 to travel the twenty-five thousand miles I plan to travel in the next ten years.

You are only going to drive 2500 miles a year? I don't entirely get your range anxiety, then, unless you own a car purely to do one or two long trips a year in which case you'd be better off hiring one for that and not owning at all.

A typical annual mileage is 10K-13K or so.

 

[The Ham]

The chemistry of Sodium Ion batteries currently is that they have a lower power density than Lithium so you would need bigger batteries to maintain the same performance/range about 15% bigger I believe. There is also issues with electrode life that makes them unsuitable/ far less suitable for fast charging.

I meant smaller battery in terms of having a range of 150 miles vs one with a larger battery with a range of 200+ miles.

Even if they are totally unsuitable for rapid charging then there's still likely to be many for whom such a car would still be entirely practical.

 

[Factotum]

You are only going to drive 2500 miles a year? I don't entirely get your range anxiety, then, unless you own a car purely to do one or two long trips a year in which case you'd be better off hiring one for that and not owning at all.

A typical annual mileage is 10K-13K or so.

Average is nearer 8000 but let that go. And I don't commute.
The car is really for "emergencies" like not being well enough to walk to the station or busstop.
Yes an EV would be fine for that but when spend £25K to no advantage. If the current car expires before I fo it will be replaced byu a second hand EV

 

[ashkeba]

The car is really for "emergencies" like not being well enough to walk to the station or busstop.

How many of those times is someone well enough to drive? Not as many as should get a taxi or call an ambulance or just stay at home and not spread illnesses around.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Average is nearer 8000 but let that go. And I don't commute.
The car is really for "emergencies" like not being well enough to walk to the station or busstop.

If you are not well enough to walk to a local bus stop you should not be driving. Take a taxi. Sounds to me like you shouldn't really own any car. But if you do only do such a tiny mileage and it is non urban, getting your ICE off the road is not a priority.

(Exception would of course be if you have some sort of physical disability that varies by day but does not affect mental capacity in any way)

 

[jonty14]

As ever, nuance is lost in any argument about EVs vs ICE cars.

Yes, EVs are great for some, many journey patterns and types. But not all. Charging infrastructure still falls woefully short for longer journeys, destination charging, on street charging and journeys where there is no certainty of charging. Yet they are touted as the only ethical choice in town. Rubbish.

A friend of mine has just acquired a £75k electric Audi. He cannot get to Devon on one charge, nor can he be sure that there will be either spiace or a working charge on the motorway. He thought he was buying 250+ miles of range but in reality it’s around 170 on a long journey, more in town. For which a 2.6 tonne SUV is not necessarily the answer. He thinks he has been sold a pup.

This might be solved in 5 or 10 years time. Let me know when EVs have achieved parity with ICEs in terms of usability. In the meantime, I won’t be guilted into buying a partially resolved product instead of an ICE car next time.

Of course, Tesla is way ahead of the others here.

Well said. Long distance driving is impossible with an ev. I t would take me ages to see my family in England, having to charge every 200kms. Also I live I a town where I don't have my own parking space. I have to park where there is a space. It would be impossible to charge an ev unless every parking space has it's own charger. Very expensive.
Also the environmental damage caused by battery manufacturing and disposal is always ignored in discussions about electric vehicles. Quick charging also reduces the lifespan of batteries so you need to replace them more often. The electricity that will be needed to charge them is also never mentioned. It will take more than wind turbines and solar panels to charge up all the electric vehicles on our future roads.

 

[Bald Rick]

If I keep my ICE and it costs a £1 a mile to run it will cost £25,000 to travel the twenty-five thousand miles I plan to travel in the next ten years.
If I spend £25,000 pounds on an EV which costs nothing to run (highly unlikely) it will cost me £25,000 (plus £5000 lost interest on the capital) to travel he twenty-five thousand miles I plan to travel in the next ten years.

It’s rubbish because you are comparing apples with chairs. I.e., keeping your existing car (no cost) with buying a brand new EV (£25k)

As an example, the cheapest new VW Golf list price is a shade under £24k.
The cheapest VW ID3 (electric equivalent of a Golf) list price is a shade over £27k (after the Government incentive).

The difference is £3,500.

If you were buying a new car, and doing 2,500 miles a year, and the difference was £1 a mile, you’d be better off with an EV after 18 months.

No one is suggesting you give up your ICE now and buy an EV now. The suggestion is that when it is time to get a brand new car - of which 2million people do every year - then an EV is likely to be a good choice now. And within a couple of years, a second hand EV will be a good choice for those who buy 2-4 year old cars.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Sep 2021 ==

Well said. Long distance driving is impossible with an ev.

That is patently false. How could I have seen two Teslas with Dutch number plates in the West Highlands a couple of weeks ago?

How could one of my friends regularly drive to the Western Isles from Hertfordshire in his I-Pace?

Long distance driving is not only possible, but it’s easy, and very cheap. In the latter case, about £50 return for a family of 4 for a 1200 mile round trip.

 

[The Ham]

That is patently false. How could I have seen two Teslas with Dutch number plates in the West Highlands a couple of weeks ago?

Likewise a boss of mine drove their Tesla to Poland and back a few years ago, they found that by the time they had a coffee the car was good to go for the next leg.