Have electric vehicles been "oversold" to the detriment of public transport, walking and cycling?

[Bald Rick]

Firstly you said very few people do a 600 mile drive non stop, which is clearly an awful lot more than 6 hours.

Not much more in the right conditions. But point taken.

Secondly, whether or not many people actually do drive for that amount of time is largely irrelevant to the conversation which is about the feasibility of doing so, and splitting the journey between 2 people.

Lots of things are feasible, but happen very rarely. The conversation is about the practicality of using EVs for long journeys; and the principle is they are very practical for all but the tiny, tiny minority who want to travel 5-600+ miles without cumulative breaks of about an hour in that time.

I say this as someone that has done 450miles in under 6 hours with a 15 minute break. Once.

 

[gg1]

The conversation is about the practicality of using EVs for long journeys;

It started off as one, then evolved into a discussion around the safety and feasibility of driving long distances non stop generally, a subject which relates to driving generally rather than being EV specific. Quotes for that particular element of the conversation below:

From Santander, 8 hours with stops or 6 hours non-stop pushing very hard at night.

As I've said before, if EVs prevent people doing the latter, good.

Nothing wrong with that if the driving is being shared by more than one person, which is fairly likely for a family trip across Europe.

Everything is wrong in that! Sitting in a car that long is just bad for you.

Maybe if you do it every day but doing it in a once in a blue moon trip across Europe really doesn't do any harm. And it's not LITERALLY non stop, there will be the occasional stops for driver swaps and a toilet break when you can stretch your legs.

It's certainly better than spending 10 hours+ in a far more cramped airline seat which is probably far more common.

 

[GB]

So basically petrol prices haven't gone up for 10 years.

That is scandalous amidst a climate crisis when we are supposed to be switching to green energy!

I'd add 50p a litre immediately! lol

You can guarantee the electricity you use is from wind, water or sun can you? What about the vast amounts of emissions from mining battery materials and their construction?

 

[Bald Rick]

You can guarantee the electricity you use is from wind, water or sun can you? What about the vast amounts of emissions from mining battery materials and their construction?

To be fair, @reddragon can guarantee his electricity is from the sun for most of the year, as the solar panels are on his roof.

Don’t forget to allow for the vast amount of emissions from ‘mining’, refining and transporting fuel as well.

 

[GB]

Fair enough on the solar panels, but I suspect most people charging at home would be via the mains. And yes of course fossil based fuels have production emissions but they (nor ICE drivers) are claiming to be greener than green.

 

[Factotum]

Everything is wrong in that! Sitting in a car that long is just bad for you.

No worse than sitting in front of a television for many hours.
And much less than sitting in airline steerage class for 10 hours

Travelling at night when traffic is very light is usually less stressful tan travelling during peak daytime traffic.
And anyone who gets their normal ten hours each night can take an occasional short sleep without any bad effect.

 

[Roast Veg]

No worse than sitting in front of a television for many hours.
And much less than sitting in airline steerage class for 10 hours

I wouldn't advise either of those things to anybody either!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wouldn't advise either of those things to anybody either!

Generally sitting still for a long period poses a risk of DVT. Hardly anyone would ever sit in front of the TV for 10 hours; they would get a drink, use the loo etc.

The reason for this is that the heart isn't strong enough to pump blood back up from the legs and feet, and so the calf muscles act as a secondary heart. As that isn't as true when lying down, lying in bed doesnt cause an epidemic of DVT, but sitting in a plane seat does - hence why it gets called "economy class syndrome".

 

[reddragon]

You can guarantee the electricity you use is from wind, water or sun can you? What about the vast amounts of emissions from mining battery materials and their construction?

So you excavate some Lithium from Australia or pump it out of a Cornish mine and use it for 25 years in the battery. Nobody in Australia (the worlds main supply) complains about mining for it but they do for coal. Hmmm.

So an EV has a 5-10% CO2 premium but that excess in the battery goes to a 2nd life totalling 25 years. Oh!

Battery chemistry has multiple forms and can change based on easily available materials. Apparently silicon (sand) is next! We have deserts full of the stuff!

Cobalt, miniscule in an EV and shrinking has less per car than a laptop battery that you use for a few years, maybe 5 laptops in the life of a EV battery! Oil is refined using Cobalt, lots more per cars life than a battery. The battery Cobalt is recycled, the refinery Cobalt is toxic waste yuk!

Then that oil stuff. The exploration, mining, transporting and refining, then distribution and supply (not including wars / military protection) of said oil creates greater emissions than your car creates per litre of fuel burnt, oops!

Basically an EV beats an ICE in year 1 and is a fraction of an ICE in its life. Worst case is 40% of, best case is 10% of an ICE


######

Energy guarantee. A combination of wind, tidal, hydro and solar is by far enough to supply the UK. You simply need adequate provision, which unlike coal / gas / nuclear costs nothing to stand idle and delivery energy at 2p per KW. Using grid batteries and V2G car batteries covers power dips.

Coal was 7p per unit and gas about 12p but a lot more now, relies on external supplies that are not reliable. Nuclear is > 50p per unit not including waste disposal. All have to be paid to idle and generate nowt.

Whatever energy source you use, you must install sufficient reserve.

So what do you want, renewables at 2 - 5p / unit; coal / gas at 10p / unit and rising ; or gold bar nuclear at knocking on £1 / unit with waste disposal eh?

 

[Factotum]

Generally sitting still for a long period poses a risk of DVT. Hardly anyone would ever sit in front of the TV for 10 hours; they would get a drink, use the loo etc.

The reason for this is that the heart isn't strong enough to pump blood back up from the legs and feet, and so the calf muscles act as a secondary heart. As that isn't as true when lying down, lying in bed doesnt cause an epidemic of DVT, but sitting in a plane seat does - hence why it gets called "economy class syndrome".

I have heard it called "luggage reclaim syndrome" because that is often where it strikes

So what do you want, renewables at 2 - 5p / unit; coal / gas at 10p / unit and rising ; or gold bar nuclear at knocking on £1 / unit with waste disposal eh?

Unfortunately renewables cannot be guaranteed to be on line at a sufficient level to always supply the demand
That is why we had problems a few weeks ago: barely any wind power and the loss of the French nuclear power when the trans-manche link failed
Aggressive demand management with the more widespread acceptance of short outages, financially compensated, will help a lot but there will always be need for some non-renewable base load. (Not sure whether you should count nuclear as renewable)

 

[reddragon]

I have heard it called "luggage reclaim syndrome" because that is often where it strikes



Unfortunately renewables cannot be guaranteed to be on line at a sufficient level to always supply the demand
That is why we had problems a few weeks ago: barely any wind power and the loss of the French nuclear power when the trans-manche link failed
Aggressive demand management with the more widespread acceptance of short outages, financially compensated, will help a lot but there will always be need for some non-renewable base load. (Not sure whether you should count nuclear as renewable)

The National Grid have a very different view on this.

We had 1 then 2 inter connectors fail, low wind & low solar, various gas / nuclear plants out of action preparing for winter and hiked gas prices. The wind did not stop or the sun vanish!

A combination of wind, solar and hydro / tidal would be infinitely more reliable, along with grid storage options including the Norway interconnector which just opened to do that.

So what happens in the event of a gas grid cut then?

In Australia they have frequent power outages in the summer simply because they rely on coal / gas which trip out in the heat often in multiples.

Renewables are incredibly reliable but we must have a proportion of tidal generation for base load to do so.

Note the Lebanon has a total grid collapse and have no renewables. If they did they would have no issues. India is 3 days away from meltdown on the grid due to coal shortages. They need to get on with solar. China are in trouble with power outages, its due to gas / coal shortages not renewables!

Check you facts.

 

[Factotum]

The National Grid have a very different view on this.

We had 1 then 2 inter connectors fail, low wind & low solar, various gas / nuclear plants out of action preparing for winter and hiked gas prices. The wind did not stop or the sun vanish!

A combination of wind, solar and hydro / tidal would be infinitely more reliable, along with grid storage options including the Norway interconnector which just opened to do that.

So what happens in the event of a gas grid cut then?

In Australia they have frequent power outages in the summer simply because they rely on coal / gas which trip out in the heat often in multiples.

Renewables are incredibly reliable but we must have a proportion of tidal generation for base load to do so.

Note the Lebanon has a total grid collapse and have no renewables. If they did they would have no issues. India is 3 days away from meltdown on the grid due to coal shortages. They need to get on with solar. China are in trouble with power outages, its due to gas / coal shortages not renewables!

Check you facts.

As far as I can tell the sun did vanish for ten or more hours a day. and will continue to do so throughout the winter. Periods of stable high pressure when no wind blows are not uncommon.
And do bear in mind that we did manage to run a stable and reliable grid for over half a century with no renewables beyond the modest pump storage in North Wales
Nuclear is a reliable base load especially if we buy it from France

 

[reddragon]

As far as I can tell the sun did vanish for ten or more hours a day. and will continue to do so throughout the winter. Periods of stable high pressure when no wind blows are not uncommon.
And do bear in mind that we did manage to run a stable and reliable grid for over half a century with no renewables beyond the modest pump storage in North Wales
Nuclear is a reliable base load especially if we buy it from France

Or Norway for hydro!

 

[JamesT]

The UK was the single greatest creator of pollution worldwide to date due to its early industrial revolution and 'Empire' building. The USA eventually overtook. China, often the unfair target, produces most of our goods, so that's on us not them. Just stop blaming China because us cheapskates have dumped our manufacturing there to offshore our responsibilities!

We're not even close to being the top polluter cumulatively - https://www.vox.com/energy-and-envi.../climate-change-united-states-china-emissions
(US 1st - 397Gt CO2, UK 5th - 77Gt)

If you look at Global impact per head, the USA requires 10 planets, the UK 6, and the EU 5 if everyone were the same at consumption as them. Most of the rest of the world is close to 1 and Africa well below 1. China is also below 1 if you exclude their exports which is how these figures are based.

Emissions per capita has little point other than to trying to deflect from how bad the large polluters are. We may have outsourced a bunch of manufacturing to China, but the Chinese didn't have to build so many dirty coal power stations. They're still building them, we could turn off all our fossil fuel power stations and China would have replaced those emissions within the year. They're currently planning on 'peak coal' in 2030!

There is enough wind in the UK even on a calm day to rely on renewables whilst there clearly isn't enough supply in the chain for gas and fuel deliveries and soon oil refining either. EVs are actually the solution not a problem for energy supply. Our grid is designed for that peak winter evening that happens a few times of the year. Plugged in EVs with V2G eliminate the issue entirely as they can supply your home in peaks. All new EV chargers must be smart chargers designed to use power at night, or on a Sunday afternoon when there is spare energy going to waste. Daytime peaks are several times night time lows in energy use, and we pay endless power stations running idle to cover that. EVs remove that waste by using it. There are electric tariffs that allow you to profit from buying & selling power just like that.

There really isn't enough reliable wind. Have you not been paying attention for the last couple of months? We've had a long-lasting weather pattern sitting over the UK, which resulted in the combined total of our wind plants producing 1-3GW. Their nameplate capacity is 24GW. That's why we've had to spin up some of our coal plants to make up the shortfall.
Our grid isn't currently big enough to handle the extremes, hence why we often have to pay wind farms in the far North of Scotland to turn off because there's not enough capacity get the energy down to where it's required. More storage is going to have to be the answer if we continue to increase the share of unreliable renewables in the generation mix, but I'm unconvinced V2G is going to be the saviour. Apparently current installed capacity as of 2018 was 2.2GWh. Which would supply the UK's electricity demand for about 5 minutes. You're going to need a massive expansion of EVs with people willing to use them as V2G (do all EVs currently support it?) to get anywhere near it being a solution for intermittent generation.

 

[reddragon]

We're not even close to being the top polluter cumulatively - https://www.vox.com/energy-and-envi.../climate-change-united-states-china-emissions
(US 1st - 397Gt CO2, UK 5th - 77Gt)

That is a scary table. The key imbalance in it remains the exclusion of aviation, shipping and our reliance on goods made in China that greatly change those figure against us.

Emissions per capita has little point other than to trying to deflect from how bad the large polluters are. We may have outsourced a bunch of manufacturing to China, but the Chinese didn't have to build so many dirty coal power stations. They're still building them, we could turn off all our fossil fuel power stations and China would have replaced those emissions within the year. They're currently planning on 'peak coal' in 2030!

As we set standards for everything else, nothing but nothing stopped us setting emission standards for imports. Instead we chose to offset our CO2 emissions by exporting it so that you can get cheap goods.

There really isn't enough reliable wind. Have you not been paying attention for the last couple of months? We've had a long-lasting weather pattern sitting over the UK, which resulted in the combined total of our wind plants producing 1-3GW. Their nameplate capacity is 24GW. That's why we've had to spin up some of our coal plants to make up the shortfall.
Our grid isn't currently big enough to handle the extremes, hence why we often have to pay wind farms in the far North of Scotland to turn off because there's not enough capacity get the energy down to where it's required. More storage is going to have to be the answer if we continue to increase the share of unreliable renewables in the generation mix, but I'm unconvinced V2G is going to be the saviour. Apparently current installed capacity as of 2018 was 2.2GWh. Which would supply the UK's electricity demand for about 5 minutes. You're going to need a massive expansion of EVs with people willing to use them as V2G (do all EVs currently support it?) to get anywhere near it being a solution for intermittent generation.

Wind alone is not enough, we need tidal energy. More interconnectors to Norway's limitless hydro is another option.

The transition to EVs will have a beneficial impact on our grid in many ways allowing storage and grid balance. Also local storage in your own car results in grid losses being reduced. What I cannot work out is how we are supposed to heat our homes on heat pumps during those cold still winter evenings. Transport is easy, heat is not!

I cannot see how heat can be done without nuclear energy. Yet!

 

[trebor79]

The transition to EVs will have a beneficial impact on our grid in many ways allowing storage and grid balance. Also local storage in your own car results in grid losses being reduced. What I cannot work out is how we are supposed to heat our homes on heat pumps during those cold still winter evenings. Transport is easy, heat is not!

Heat pumps will work even on a very cold day - there's still a lot of energy in even 'cold' air. The issue with heat pumps is that hardly any of the UK housing stock is suitable, being very poorly insulated. So the heat pump ends up having a very low COP and you might as well just fit electric radiators and avoid the massive capital cost of the heat pump.
There's a stronger argument that all new housing should be built with heat pumps.

 

[ashkeba]

The transition to EVs will have a beneficial impact on our grid in many ways allowing storage and grid balance. Also local storage in your own car results in grid losses being reduced. What I cannot work out is how we are supposed to heat our homes on heat pumps during those cold still winter evenings. Transport is easy, heat is not!

I cannot see how heat can be done without nuclear energy. Yet!

I think you already see how. Charge an EV when possible, use it to run the heat pump if needed. 8kWh input on a heat pump will heat a 4 bed semi for the evening, delivering 28kWh on today's technology which performs better for heating than hot water, as the flow temperature can be lower.

Not all EVs will have spare charge every time is needed but probably enough will often enough to keep demand within supply.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The transition to EVs will have a beneficial impact on our grid in many ways allowing storage and grid balance. Also local storage in your own car results in grid losses being reduced. What I cannot work out is how we are supposed to heat our homes on heat pumps during those cold still winter evenings. Transport is easy, heat is not!

A heat pump is best described as being like a fridge. A fridge might already be cold, so you alter the thermostat and it can get colder. The heat it pumps is chucked out of the back.

Most people don't really understand them, which doesn't help. It's actually tech that has been around for years - basic refrigeration stuff, but unlike a fridge or aircon unit you want the heat output side rather than the cold side.

Heat pumps will work even on a very cold day - there's still a lot of energy in even 'cold' air. The issue with heat pumps is that hardly any of the UK housing stock is suitable, being very poorly insulated. So the heat pump ends up having a very low COP and you might as well just fit electric radiators and avoid the massive capital cost of the heat pump.
There's a stronger argument that all new housing should be built with heat pumps.

It's in a way the opposite. Heat pumps just require bigger radiators or underfloor piping as the water temperature is lower than gas. A very well-insulated home (think Passivhaus standard, so including things like heat recovery ventilation* as well as simple insulation) can just heat from electricity because so little is required; a heat pump isn't worth the cost.

However, much as they need to pack in blocking the M25, Insulate Britain do have a very good point.

* This essentially is pressure ventilation but with a heat exchanger or heat pump between the outflow and inflow, meaning you don't lose heat like you do with the windows open. In summer it can be run in reverse to have a limited cooling effect.

 

[ashkeba]

Heat pumps will work even on a very cold day - there's still a lot of energy in even 'cold' air. The issue with heat pumps is that hardly any of the UK housing stock is suitable, being very poorly insulated. So the heat pump ends up having a very low COP and you might as well just fit electric radiators and avoid the massive capital cost of the heat pump.
There's a stronger argument that all new housing should be built with heat pumps.

I think therr is an even stronger argument that all old housing in the UK should be insulated to the maximumpossible with current technology.

I understand there is a group currently locking themselves to motorways to call for this. Sadly, the government seems to react by banning protests instead of banning energy waste. Hopefully they will announce something around COP26 this month to show leadership.

What other electric transport announcements do we want? MML and Felixstowe electrification? VAT removed from ebike and escooter batteries? Legalisation of low speed private escooters?

 

[reddragon]

Heat pumps will work even on a very cold day - there's still a lot of energy in even 'cold' air. The issue with heat pumps is that hardly any of the UK housing stock is suitable, being very poorly insulated. So the heat pump ends up having a very low COP and you might as well just fit electric radiators and avoid the massive capital cost of the heat pump.
There's a stronger argument that all new housing should be built with heat pumps.

I know how they work. The issues is that this energy demand will be in peak demand slots where today the energy comes from gas.

I replaced my oil burner with biomass because I could not make a heat pump work economically. I have gradually insulted and added undefloor heating in room by room so now I could, but agree all new build should be and was supposed to be from 2017. That's what the Insulation Britain lot are on about.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I know how they work. The issues is that this energy demand will be in peak demand slots where today the energy comes from gas.

Not really, because heat pumps work as a constant background "keep the house warm all the time" rather than "brr, it's cold, whack the heating on full" which is how most* people use it.

* I don't, I use a Tado controller to maintain the temperature I want whenever at home but allow it to drop a bit when out.

 

[reddragon]

I think therr is an even stronger argument that all old housing in the UK should be insulated to the maximumpossible with current technology.

I understand there is a group currently locking themselves to motorways to call for this. Sadly, the government seems to react by banning protests instead of banning energy waste. Hopefully they will announce something around COP26 this month to show leadership.

What other electric transport announcements do we want? MML and Felixstowe electrification? VAT removed from ebike and escooter batteries? Legalisation of low speed private escooters?

The simple process is to ban something, encourage its replacement, set that date and ignore the tiny group who scream.

I'd ban non-electric power / garden tools exc maybe chainsaws as no tech exists. I'd ban new diesel only trains, buses, scooters etc. At the same time you tax one and subsidise the other to force the switch.

After the initial noise of London's ULEZ zones people just got on with the switch.

Oil CH needs banning before gas, its awful stuff made worse by the fact that those old Trianco burners go on free of maintenance for 30+ years! Filthy things far worse than cars.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Electric chainsaws do exist, but petrol garden machines are about as de minimis as you can get and so not really worth bothering about, similar to classic cars used only occasionally or hobby motorcyclists who don't ride daily. The two big ones are day to day transport and home heating.

Oil CH is similarly a minority pursuit; it's expensive so people only have it if gas isn't an option. It's used in places where particulates are of minor concern, and carbon emissions won't be any worse than gas.

 

[reddragon]

Not really, because heat pumps work as a constant background "keep the house warm all the time" rather than "brr, it's cold, whack the heating on full" which is how most* people use it.

* I don't, I use a Tado controller to maintain the temperature I want whenever at home but allow it to drop a bit when out.

That is true but you are clearly an intelligent user.

There have been numerous issues in affordable housing with such systems where they do not let it run and turn it off. In the evening the high powered immersion heater came on when they tried boosting the heat in their cold houses.

There is also the issue that these system are designed for a small temperature variance, say taking heat from air at say 5C, heating it to 30C to warm a house to 20C. There are those who like their house to be 28C and open their windows. Daft, but true I know a couple of them. In these circumstances the heat pump operates beyond its designed parameters and instead of a 4 to 1 gain, it comes down well below 2 to 1.

Electric chainsaws do exist, but petrol garden machines are about as de minimis as you can get and so not really worth bothering about, similar to classic cars used only occasionally or hobby motorcyclists who don't ride daily. The two big ones are day to day transport and home heating.

Oil CH is similarly a minority pursuit; it's expensive so people only have it if gas isn't an option. It's used in places where particulates are of minor concern, and carbon emissions won't be any worse than gas.

I unfortunately live in an area where many people employ gardeners. The incessant scream of their power tools when they are out simply because they don't want poor people stealing their electricity.

Why does anyone need to use a leaf blower? Broom anyone? Allowing leaves to harbour insects which seem to have become extinct?

 

[trebor79]

Oil CH is similarly a minority pursuit; it's expensive so people only have it if gas isn't an option. It's used in places where particulates are of minor concern, and carbon emissions won't be any worse than gas.

Actually I've found we spend far, far less on heating oil than we ever did on gas since we moved to the countryside. And this is a bigger house too.
Biggest mistake I made was scrapping the 3,000l single-shelled steel tank and replacing it with a 1,200l plastic bunded tank. I could have got nearly 3 years worth of fuel into that when the oil price crashed last year. But even in a "normal" year we spend between £500 and £800 heating the house. I used to spend that easily on gas in a much smaller (and brand new) 3 bed house nearly a decade ago!
The oil boilers are very simple too, so servicing and parts costs are much lower. Last time it had a problem soon after being serviced I fixed it myself (he'd insisted on replacing the internal flexible oil tube to the pump, and had been careless and tightened the union with a bit of grit on the mating surface, so it was sucking in air and tripping out due to fuel starvation. Quick wipe and retighten and all good.)

I'd actually recommend anyone replacing an old gas boiler to seriously consider switching to oil. The oil boiler + tank will cost less than a new gas boiler, the fuel is much cheaper and you can physically hedge fuel prices by buying when it's cheap!

 

[reddragon]

Back on track to the OPs question.

When you buy an ICE on PCP the cost is based on the gap between the purchase price and the 'value' after the 3 or 4 year contract. They come to this value by dividing the cost new by about 3 typically based on the value reduction curve of an ICE over a typical 10 year life. This makes owning cars very costly.

Legacy manufacturers have continued to do this for EVs however due to the much longer life of an EV their residuals are much higher. This inflates their PCP cost.

Tesla have introduced a different PCP model. High initial cost less very high residual value that keeps monthly payment down to that of a much cheaper car. Their plan is to sell 3 year old cars at a much higher price or to use them as taxi / hail a ride / rent by the hour cars keeping them on the road for very high mileages then reusing the batteries in grid storage.

Their second life as cheap rentals is where there's a big risk to public transport. Even in their first life they are fitted with a system to allow owners to rent them out by the hour when not needed. Their CCTV cameras & black box system covers insurance claims.

If a manufacturer of a cheap small EV did this, a car would become so cheap to use that train / bus travel would be heavily challenged.

 

[ashkeba]

There have been numerous issues in affordable housing with such systems where they do not let it run and turn it off. In the evening the high powered immersion heater came on when they tried boosting the heat in their cold houses.

I have never known an immersion heater activate except for the hot water tank sterilisation cycle or if the heat pump has failed. And how can that even work? The radiators are not normally fed from the hot water tank. It sounds like a faulty system design which is inexcusable but understandable in a country which has ignored heat pumps and possibly social housing association landlords who are hiring the cheapest designers and installers.

There is also the issue that these system are designed for a small temperature variance, say taking heat from air at say 5C, heating it to 30C to warm a house to 20C. There are those who like their house to be 28C and open their windows. Daft, but true I know a couple of them. In these circumstances the heat pump operates beyond its designed parameters and instead of a 4 to 1 gain, it comes down well below 2 to 1.

Those people have problems anyway, I think. They would find battery-heated clothes to be much cheaper and maybe we should not enable them to continue misusing central heating? Or if they are rich and want to waste like that, it should probably cost them more.

I unfortunately live in an area where many people employ gardeners. The incessant scream of their power tools when they are out simply because they don't want poor people stealing their electricity.

I think the gardeners use engine tools even when electricity is available. Is it not more that the gardener does some work where electricity is not available because it is a very very large garden which would exhaust many tool batteries and without electricity supply all over, so they have engine tools and they do not see it economic to carry both engine and electric tools yet, so the engine tools get used everywhere.

 

[reddragon]

Actually I've found we spend far, far less on heating oil than we ever did on gas since we moved to the countryside. And this is a bigger house too.
Biggest mistake I made was scrapping the 3,000l single-shelled steel tank and replacing it with a 1,200l plastic bunded tank. I could have got nearly 3 years worth of fuel into that when the oil price crashed last year. But even in a "normal" year we spend between £500 and £800 heating the house. I used to spend that easily on gas in a much smaller (and brand new) 3 bed house nearly a decade ago!
The oil boilers are very simple too, so servicing and parts costs are much lower. Last time it had a problem soon after being serviced I fixed it myself (he'd insisted on replacing the internal flexible oil tube to the pump, and had been careless and tightened the union with a bit of grit on the mating surface, so it was sucking in air and tripping out due to fuel starvation. Quick wipe and retighten and all good.)

I'd actually recommend anyone replacing an old gas boiler to seriously consider switching to oil. The oil boiler + tank will cost less than a new gas boiler, the fuel is much cheaper and you can physically hedge fuel prices by buying when it's cheap!

You have had the recent run of luck of warm winters and low CH oil prices.

Recently summer prices have been around 4p/unit, averaging 5p/unit and peaking at 6p/unit. Gas prices are around 3.5p/unit.

Currently oil is 6.5p/unit. In cold winters the price often hit 10p/unit and have 6 week delivery waits. This winter looks to dwarf the delays and costs of any past winter and that's without a really cold snap.

You forget the effect on oil supply rates on costs per litre. If crude oil prices add 30 p/l petrol prices go from £1.20 to £1.50 a 25% increase. Heating oil goes from 50p to 80p an 60% increase. Ouch!

As you see oil has been cheap since 2015 because Saudi has been having an oil war with Iran & Russia that has had a huge international impact on oil explorations / investment



It is predicted that oil prices will increase a lot could double in the next 12 months.

 

[trebor79]

You have had the recent run of luck of warm winters and low CH oil prices.

Recently summer prices have been around 4p/unit, averaging 5p/unit and peaking at 6p/unit. Gas prices are around 3.5p/unit.

Well we've been here 8 years now. Am familiar with oil price dynamics. I suspect the price of gas is about to rocket for the majority of consumers, and I'm sure there used to be a standing charge on the bill too.
The delivery delay thing isn't an issue. I order 1,000l and there's sufficient in the tank to last until it arrives. If I was really worried I could order 750l when I had 500l left.

All I can say is that the fuel costs for this 30 year 4 bed house are approximately half the fuel costs of the previous brand new three bedroomed house.

I can also say with confidence that combi-boilers (which I have always hated) produce negligible fuel savings. We have an old fashioned cylinder in the airing cupboard and (as the CH is off for a long period of the year and I can measure my oil usage closely), I can say that hot water accounts for less than 10% of our annual oil usage. And that's with my wife who thinks 30 minutes is "a quick shower" and 2 boys to bath/shower every day.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I can also say with confidence that combi-boilers (which I have always hated) produce negligible fuel savings.

That isn't really the advantage of them; the advantage of them is hot water on demand at mains pressure. For instance they are excellent for having a good quality, high pressure rain shower without kludges like pumps, though an unvented cylinder is a reasonable substitute if you have a system boiler or heat pump. And don't even get me started on electric showers which are junk because they can't heat water quickly enough.

I love my combi every time I step into the shower.