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Heading into autumn - what next?

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DustyBin

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I remember the three seconds when heard of them, thinking they would promote a robust, evidence based approach. Instead we had this delusional lot..

I recently read an interesting article about Independent SAGE (apologies I don’t have a link to hand). Their original purpose was indeed to provide a robust evidence based approach, challenge SAGE when necessary and mitigate “group think”. In reality however they’re nothing more than a group of activists driven by ideology as opposed to scientific evidence. They even removed a member last year who dared to challenge their pro-lockdown stance. They are the very definition of “group think”!
 

DelW

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In reality, cases have been falling since around 20th October. But I am not sure if many journalists know how to find out this information; it involves going to this website: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases and taking a look at the cases or case rates by specimen date. That may be too difficult for some journalists to do, as it requires a little bit of initiative and intelligence, which appears to be lacking in this sector.

Oh, and it's also worth mentioning that some people (who do recognise cases are reducing, but lack the ability to look deeper into when cases started to fall) are claiming the half-term break is behind the reduction in cases. This is false, because the half-term break for the vast majority of schools is this week (week commencing 25th October) yet cases plateaued a week before that and started reducing before the end of the first half of the school term.

So if you hear anyone claiming cases are only going down due to the half term holiday, you can tell them that's false.
I'm not an enthusiast for Boris or his cabinet, but I'm very glad that so far they've held their nerve on this one. Had "Plan B" or similar been implemented just before the numbers peaked, I'm sure it would have been credited with causing the drop, and probably a more extreme "Plan C" advocated to "cut the rate further". Now that the numbers seem (fingers crossed) to be dropping reasonably consistently without Plan B, that narrative is harder to promote, and the media campaign seems to be easing off a little.

Looking at statistics from around the world, Covid infection rates typically ramp up very quickly, naturally causing extreme disquiet and consequent severe restrictions as we've seen. But generally, even in countries which don't implement severe measures, either for ideological reasons or because their economies couldn't survive them, the infection rate peaks surprisingly quickly, and the following drop can be equally rapid. Of course a lot of people may become seriously ill and/or die during that period, so it's not necessarily a good move to do nothing as the rate ramps up, but it does suggest that the virus runs out of victims more quickly than is often supposed.
 

Class 33

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Remember all the panic and hysteria the press and media reported last month about "Fears grow of an October lockdown"? Well it didn't happen! We got through October without a lockdown! Nor even this "Plan B" nonsense too. Thank goodness. But hope the press and media don't get up to their antics again soon and reporting "Fears grow of a December lockdown"!!! They need to give it a rest with all this doom mongering reporting.
 

The Ham

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The other issue, if Plan B is implemented, will then there be demands for tougher measures. Prof Stephen Reicher has already suggested a ‘Plan C’ is required.


Whilst we are currently at similar numbers of hospitalisations as October last year, when we went into lockdown, they are broadly stable and so the need to lockdown isn't needed. As a comparison last year it took just 3 days to go from about 8,000 in hospital to about 9,000, this year it's taken 9 days.

We are still significantly below where we were at Christmas last year when just as term started all the schools closed. (On the 4th January there were nearly 31,000 in hospital).

If we are to have a plan, something like:

At 11, 000 (so still noticeably higher than where we currently are) in hospital suggest that is a good idea to WFH a bit more than you've been doing of late. That's likely to be enough to ease case numbers to get them back below that.

There maybe a need to have a plan which goes further than that which is actually Plan B, not sure what that would look like, but probably still short of a formal lockdown, again with a figure of (say) 18,000 in hospital or a rapidly rising number where 18,000 is likely within the next week.

Plan C is easy; at 30,000 in hospital close the schools like in January. By having a set number against it those who are calling for it have to justify why it's needed at a lower number than that. It's such a high number that it should never actually be implemented, but the government can say that they have a plan.
 

Eyersey468

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Ministers are considering a Covid “Plan C” that would see household mixing banned alongside the reintroduction of advice to work from home and vaccine passports, according to reports.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid on Wednesday warned cases could reach 100,000 a day this winter and urged Britons to come forward for their booster jab to prevent the return of restrictions.
 
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Smidster

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Is worth remembering that "Plan C" report was nearly two weeks ago and was flatly denied by Government.

It still seems highly likely we will end up with at least "Plan B" but I would expect them to hold off on the announcement until after the end of COP26 - I would expect this plan to also go slightly further than the original "Plan B" given the modelling that shows just how useless it would actually be.
 

duncanp

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Ministers may be considering what a "Plan C" would look like, but that doesn't mean that it is likely to be implemented in the near future.

Worth noting that the article in The Standard is dated 21st October, and it quotes 49,139 cases per day, with cases rising at a rate of 17% per week.

The latest figures are 38,009 cases per day (by date reported) and cases falling at a rate of 13.5% per week.

So there is less likelihood that Plan B will be implemented, let alone Plan C.

Can't help thinking that the reports of a potential Plan C were meant to scare the public into getting vaccinated.
 

Eyersey468

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Is worth remembering that "Plan C" report was nearly two weeks ago and was flatly denied by Government.

It still seems highly likely we will end up with at least "Plan B" but I would expect them to hold off on the announcement until after the end of COP26 - I would expect this plan to also go slightly further than the original "Plan B" given the modelling that shows just how useless it would actually be.
Given this governments track record of denying things then doing them I can't believe a word they say any more.
 

NorthKent1989

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Plan B, C, D etc this virus is never going away, this Covid rubbish has been milked enough, it’s about time people realise it, more than enough people have been vaccinated now, so can we have full on normality back without the papers please society the authoritarians are begging for.
 

Eyersey468

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Plan B, C, D etc this virus is never going away, this Covid rubbish has been milked enough, it’s about time people realise it, more than enough people have been vaccinated now, so can we have full on normality back without the papers please society the authoritarians are begging for.
I agree it is here to stay and we need to learn to live with it now which does not mean shutting things down every few months nor wearing masks and antisocial distancing for the rest of time
 

brad465

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Ministers may be considering what a "Plan C" would look like, but that doesn't mean that it is likely to be implemented in the near future.

Worth noting that the article in The Standard is dated 21st October, and it quotes 49,139 cases per day, with cases rising at a rate of 17% per week.

The latest figures are 38,009 cases per day (by date reported) and cases falling at a rate of 13.5% per week.

So there is less likelihood that Plan B will be implemented, let alone Plan C.

Can't help thinking that the reports of a potential Plan C were meant to scare the public into getting vaccinated.
Yes to introduce new measures while recorded cases are going down will look ridiculous, especially if this trend continues this week while COP26 is dominating the headlines. Once that's passed and covid may take the headlines again, if they've dropped a long way then all of us opposing new measures have good traction.
 

NorthKent1989

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Yes to introduce new measures while recorded cases are going down will look ridiculous, especially if this trend continues this week while COP26 is dominating the headlines. Once that's passed and covid may take the headlines again, if they've dropped a long way then all of us opposing new measures have good traction.

As cases are dropping rapidly what the media should be focusing on now is the “post Covid” time and how we can recover, rather than prolonging measures longer than necessary.
 

bramling

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I agree it is here to stay and we need to learn to live with it now which does not mean shutting things down every few months nor wearing masks and antisocial distancing for the rest of time

It also means not having this constant "threat" of restrictions or shutdowns - or, as some people see it, freeby time off work - hovering over us essentially all the time. It's gone on long enough now.
 
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NorthKent1989

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I agree it is here to stay and we need to learn to live with it now which does not mean shutting things down every few months nor wearing masks and antisocial distancing for the rest of time

Exactly, people have to get used to germs again and stop living in fear, we’ve done everything humanly possible to deal with this virus and it hasn’t gotten rid of Covid, I, along with many others aren’t prepared to give up another year on this virus


It also means not having this constant "thread" of restrictions or shutdowns - or, as some people see it, freeby time off work - hovering over us essentially all the time. It's gone on long enough now.

People call those who want a return to normality selfish but I call the those who want more restrictions the real selfish ones as they just want others to give up their own lives for their fears.
 

Eyersey468

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Exactly, people have to get used to germs again and stop living in fear, we’ve done everything humanly possible to deal with this virus and it hasn’t gotten rid of Covid, I, along with many others aren’t prepared to give up another year on this virus




People call those who want a return to normality selfish but I call the those who want more restrictions the real selfish ones as they just want others to give up their own lives for their fears.
I agree. I can understand why people are scared given the appalling messaging over the last 18 months but we can't keep living in fear all the time.
 

brad465

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I'm sure it's been recalled (including by myself) on here that the cost of living crisis expected this winter will be of high importance to people and when it's been in the headlines has taken coverage away from covid. I think that no matter how hard the government and scientists try to urge caution and bring measures in, I think there are areas where people are so worried about their personal finances that nothing will convince them to follow anything for the sake of covid. This will be most true surrounding working and school arrangements, where staff/parents will avoid any situation where they miss work and as a result full pay.

I wonder also if household mixing would be hard to stop as anyone struggling to pay bills considers spending time at relatives to cut costs more, and/or for stress relief and comfort during hardship.

At the very least financial concerns will be forefront in one's brain and won't think about covid so much, in the same way self-isolation was widely ignored by those who couldn't afford it last year/earlier this year. The reality is that if those in power view covid as more important than anything else, they have to throw whatever money/support they can at mitigating issues that are more important to certain groups, which long term is unsustainable.
 

Jimini

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The park will stay shut for the next few days despite all the weekend's visitors testing negative for coronavirus.
Monday 1 November 2021 17:45, UK

All the park's visitors were tested after one COVID case was suspected in someone who visited on Saturday

Image:All visitors were tested after one COVID case was reported in someone who visited on Saturday. Pic: AP
Why you can trust Sky News
Disneyland in Shanghai has closed after police and health workers in hazmat suits swarmed the park to test tens of thousands of visitors.
Chinese media said it may have been prompted by one person with COVID who visited the park from the nearby city of Hangzhou on Saturday.

Fireworks went off as health workers carried out the mass testing on Sunday night - and people had to wait for hours for a negative test before they could leave.
Latest live COVID news
[IMG alt="Tourists wait to get tested for Covid-19 at the exit of the Disneyland in Shanghai, China late Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021. A visitor to the popular theme park was found Sunday contracted with Covid-19. Over 30,000 people were tested before leaving the park, which will be closed for two days. (FeatureChina via AP Images)
PIC:AP

"]https://e3.365dm.com/21/11/768x432/skynews-disneyland-covid-19_5567687.jpg?20211101153649[/IMG]
Image:Tourists had to wait for a negative test before being allowed to leave
The park said all 33,863 people who visited over the weekend had tested negative.

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However, they must get tested again and have their health monitored.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADVERT




One visitor, who gave her name as Chen, said she was in the park when an announcement was made at about 5pm that everyone had to get tested.

MORE ON COVID-19​

Related Topics:​

"No-one complained, and everyone behaved really well," she said.
A child holds Mickey Mouse balloons as visitors receive COVID-19 tests at the Shanghai Disney Resort in Shanghai, China

Image:The park will stay shut for a few days in line with health rules
Disneyland said the park would stay closed on Monday and Tuesday to comply with health rules.
The shutdown shows the tough measures in place in China as it enforces a zero-tolerance approach in an attempt to stamp out any local outbreaks.
Last week, a Shanghai to Beijing train was stopped mid-journey because one passenger was a close contact of a COVID case.
Disneyland workers wait to be tested for Covid-19 as the castle is seen in the background in Shanghai, China late Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021. A visitor to the popular theme park was found Sunday contracted with Covid-19. Over 30,000 people were tested before leaving the park, which will be closed for two days.

Image:Disneyland workers also had to get tested
Police, health workers and transport staff quarantined the travellers and the train was disinfected.
China is believed to be the place where COVID originated and it was the first country to enforce strict lockdowns.
Its reported death total is just 4,636 deaths and 97,243 cases since the pandemic began.
There are extremely tough entry and quarantine requirements for people travelling into the country and all direct flights from the UK remain suspended.

As the football saying goes: “Unbelievable, Jeff”.
 

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NorthKent1989

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That's scary. I can't see many adhering to any restrictions this Christmas.

I think it’ll be a hard sell to enforce any restrictions going forward, there’s no justification for them, most people, despite the what the polls say, are completely done with Covid and want a return to normal without the conditions the government are trying to impose (or vaccine passports or boosters) though no doubt the locktavists, SAGE (Independent or otherwise), government paid scientists and the hysterical media will be calling for them.
 

duncanp

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As the football saying goes: “Unbelievable, Jeff”.

The report also says that a train from Shanghai to Beijing was stopped half way through the journey because one passenger was identified as a close contact of a COVID case. Police, health workers and transport staff quarantined the travellers and the train was disinfected.

I don't think there is the slightest chance of that happening in the UK thankfully, although that won't stop some "health experts" from advocating similar measures.
 

hst43102

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MP's are being told to wear masks in Parliament due to a rise in cases. Strange how they think that the virus will magically stop transmitting through a little piece of blue plastic - whilst all the MP's are squashed up together on their benches.
 

Dent

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MP's are being told to wear masks in Parliament due to a rise in cases. Strange how they think that the virus will magically stop transmitting through a little piece of blue plastic - whilst all the MP's are squashed up together on their benches.

The "due to a rise in cases" in the headline is rather misleading. The article does say "following rising Covid cases on the parliamentary estate", but the headline could easily be misinterpreted as saying cases are rising nationally when they are actually falling.
 

MikeWM

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MP's are being told to wear masks in Parliament due to a rise in cases. Strange how they think that the virus will magically stop transmitting through a little piece of blue plastic - whilst all the MP's are squashed up together on their benches.

It has nothing whatever to do with logic or science or common sense. It's just an act of faith and/or a show of compliance at this point.

Also strange that, now so many people are vaccinated, we're concerned about a 'rise in cases' at all. But given we are, it should be clear now that this is how we have to live our lives *forever*. There's no reason to think things will be different from now next year, or 10 years from now, so any action we're doing now we'll be doing 10 years from now too.
 

plugwash

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The last couple of days have been roughly equal to the corresponding days the previous week. It is of course too early to say whether this is a blip or whether the decline is flattening out.
 

Peter Mugridge

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I don't think there is the slightest chance of that happening in the UK thankfully, although that won't stop some "health experts" from advocating similar measures.
It half happened very early on in January or February 2020 when an Azuma ( I think it was ) was taken out of service for a total deep clean after one passenger on it had tested positive. That passenger, if I remember right, had actually been sent home to isolate after testing and was on his or her way home to do so - and had been told it was OK to get the train home. This was at the time when we only had a dozen or two confirmed infections.
 

kez19

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MP's are being told to wear masks in Parliament due to a rise in cases. Strange how they think that the virus will magically stop transmitting through a little piece of blue plastic - whilst all the MP's are squashed up together on their benches.

Yet suddenly within the last 18 months they now put them on?, bit late to the party!
Just a pity they are allowed to take them off briefly to speak then back on, where I work it has to be on all the time but still again one rule for them and us.

Isn’t it also strange on some tv programmes (inside) masks aren’t worn on presenters but be on audience etc
 
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hst43102

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Yet suddenly within the last 18 months they now put them on?, bit late to the party!
Just a pity they are allowed to take them off briefly to speak then back on, where I work it has to be on all the time but still again one rule for them and us.

Isn’t it also strange on some tv programmes (inside) masks aren’t worn on presenters but be on audience etc
It's all just virtue signalling and a very big case of "them not us". The government clearly think that the general public are far too stupid to make their own decisions.
 

kez19

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It's all just virtue signalling and a very big case of "them not us". The government clearly think that the general public are far too stupid to make their own decisions.

I agree regardless even I see it more now. Just thought to highlight the bold - I think to most they still need the governments hand as they can't see whats in front.

The "due to a rise in cases" in the headline is rather misleading. The article does say "following rising Covid cases on the parliamentary estate", but the headline could easily be misinterpreted as saying cases are rising nationally when they are actually falling.


Do the media actually do accuracy these days? I think they rather mislead the public without any comeback let alone any correction(s).
 
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