Holyhead/Llandudno/Bangor Avanti West Coast

[Bald Rick]

I predict this won't happen. Why? There's been lots of nudge-nudge, I know it is, talk on here over the last couple of years. But not a single publicly available confirmation of the work. Why not?

I’ll take that bet.

 

[wobman]

I find it bizarre that the 0935 Chester - Euston isn't coming back in the next uplift in services in May. This service was often full and standing on departure as the first off-peak direct train of the day. Probably haven't brought it back yet for exactly that reason (off peak).

When I contacted Avanti about the utterly dire Chester and North Wales provision they said the demand wasn't there. I pointed out that as there are no advance or standard premium tickets currently available from Chester and the coast it was forcing people to split their ticketing, so consequently they wouldn't genuinely know what flows looked like as people can only currently book the base range of tickets from those stations.

Oh for an open access operator for the WCML.

Avanti have no real interest with the N Wales coast route, there is the demand there it's just the lack of services that drives the passengers onto the TFW services.
The Welsh government need to put more pressure on avanti, I know tfw want avanti to stop at Shotton in the future.

 

[The Planner]

I predict this won't happen. Why? There's been lots of nudge-nudge, I know it is, talk on here over the last couple of years. But not a single publicly available confirmation of the work. Why not?

I will take the bet too. Not sure if the link will work but here is the Network Change proposal from the NR website. So its publically available.
Linespeeds

 

[paul1609]

It does of course really pose the question that if the speeds can be significantly raised for non tilting mu without significant engineering cost, where was the business case for the complicated tilt rolling stock, eps ballaises etc.?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I will take the bet too. Not sure if the link will work but here is the Network Change proposal from the NR website. So its publically available.
Linespeeds

That letter is in the Network Code section of the NR web site: https://www.networkrail.co.uk/industry-and-commercial/information-for-operators/network-code/
Appendix A would be the interesting bit, except that is not available...
Presumably the consultation process is complete and a programme of work planned, funded by Avanti and/or DfT.

I was looking at a 2015 document from NR on what would be involved in raising the non-tilt line speeds on the WCML between Handsacre Jn and Glasgow, for HS2 trains.
It involved something like 90+ track interventions in both directions, at a cost of £60 million-ish, to achieve something close to the EPS speed profile in open country.
The major PS obstacles (eg through stations and over Shap/Beattock summits) remained.
With the full interventions, the time differential between tilt and not-tilt times north of Handsacre came down from about 12 minutes to 2 minutes.
No doubt today's equivalent study would cover the route north of Crewe (or possibly Bamfurlong).

 

[The Planner]

That letter is in the Network Code section of the NR web site: https://www.networkrail.co.uk/industry-and-commercial/information-for-operators/network-code/
Appendix A would be the interesting bit, except that is not available...
Presumably the consultation process is complete and a programme of work planned, funded by Avanti and/or DfT.

I was looking at a 2015 document from NR on what would be involved in raising the non-tilt line speeds on the WCML between Handsacre Jn and Glasgow, for HS2 trains.
It involved something like 90+ track interventions in both directions, at a cost of £60 million-ish, to achieve something close to the EPS speed profile in open country.
The major PS obstacles (eg through stations and over Shap/Beattock summits) remained.
With the full interventions, the time differential between tilt and not-tilt times north of Handsacre came down from about 12 minutes to 2 minutes.
No doubt today's equivalent study would cover the route north of Crewe (or possibly Bamfurlong).

You will never see the Appendix A part. NR only have to evidence the consultations happen. Still an objection to it I think so that is why it hasn't moved to the established section.
I suspect that 2015 study will be dusted off again in the near future.

 

[DelW]

It does of course really pose the question that if the speeds can be significantly raised for non tilting mu without significant engineering cost, where was the business case for the complicated tilt rolling stock, eps ballaises etc.?

Well IIRC, when those measures were decided on, the intention was to enable speeds up to 140mph, which of course was later scaled back and then abandoned.
Plus since then, there have been 25 years or so of improvements in bogie and suspension design.

 

[Bald Rick]

It does of course really pose the question that if the speeds can be significantly raised for non tilting mu without significant engineering cost, where was the business case for the complicated tilt rolling stock, eps ballaises etc.?

To add to what @DelW has said, the speeds aren’t necessarily being raised ‘significantly’, certainly not everywhere. AIUI about a third will stay at the current non-EPS level, less than a quarter of the route sees the new MU speed at the same as the EPS, with the rest in between.


The time differential between a Pendolino at the new MU speed profile and a Pendolino at the EPS profile on a London - Manchester run would be quite significant; at a guess something like 10 minutes. And that’s where the business case was for the tilt system.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It does of course really pose the question that if the speeds can be significantly raised for non tilting mu without significant engineering cost, where was the business case for the complicated tilt rolling stock, eps ballaises etc.?

Tilt was popular in the late 1990s in Europe, and many countries deployed it on suitable routes, notably in the Alps.
Fiat/Alstom had proved the technology, and it rolled out in CH/IT/DE/CZ/PL/PT/FI (Swedish X2000, and Talgo/CAF, were different designs).
Most of these deployments were not on high speed lines or even 200km/h - they mainly brought line speeds up to the typical 160km/h national maximum.
The WCML solution was the most intensive of these deployments with sustained 125mph running, although I think the GB technical limitations (TASS etc) reduced its potential somewhat, not to mention failing to meet the 140mph design objective.
With tilting 390 and 221 there was really no demand for 125mph non-tilt running until now.
GB however never rolled out tilt to other routes which could have benefitted, eg MML, west country, TP.
So it looks like the 390s will see out their life on the WCML, with no use for their tilt function elsewhere.
The new Alstom is also likely to drop the Pendolino from production (or sell off the plant) once current orders are complete.
Just my 2d 'orth.

 

[paul1609]

I suspect that in reality the time differential between mu and eps is going to be nothing like 10 mins on Euston to Manchester and it'll only be a matter of time before 80xs are achieving pendolino schedules. The financial case for tilt was probably dead as soon as 140 mph running was abandoned but admitting that would have just caused more difficulty with the treasury especially the increased compensation to Virgin.

 

[Bald Rick]

I suspect that in reality the time differential between mu and eps is going to be nothing like 10 mins on Euston to Manchester

I very carefully said that it was around 10 minutes when comparing a Pendolino at EPS with a Pendolino at MU. Because when the WC Route Mod was being planned, the Pendolino was the most advanced and best accelerating long distance rolling stock on offer.

and it'll only be a matter of time before 80xs are achieving pendolino schedules.

This is a different comparison. But in any event they won’t be, not least because 80x won’t be going to Manchester. But, for example, they’ll lose half a minute at Linslade alone. Another half at Weedon. More at Berkhamsted, Bletchley, Wolverton, Banbury Lane, Rugby, etc etc.

The financial case for tilt was probably dead as soon as 140 mph running was abandoned

Absolutely not. Tilt was (and remains) crucial to achieve the journey times to all the main WCML ‘Avanti’ destinations. It also has a sub benefit of improving the ride experienced by passengers. I know that when the 80x take over the Birmingham stopper in a year or so I will be definitely avoiding it in favour of the faster service for that very reason.

 

[The Planner]

I'll dig the figures out tomorrow, but even with the MU speed changes the 80x are nowhere near keeping up with a Pendo.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Absolutely not. Tilt was (and remains) crucial to achieve the journey times to all the main WCML ‘Avanti’ destinations. It also has a sub benefit of improving the ride experienced by passengers. I know that when the 80x take over the Birmingham stopper in a year or so I will be definitely avoiding it in favour of the faster service for that very reason.

The 80x stopper is more intended as a "souped up LNR service" and isn't really intended for London-Brum use, though I guess if it's a bit quiet (which it may not be, as it's only 7 car) they will release some very well priced Advances on it. I quite look forward to it from MKC, though, I prefer 80x to Pendolinos (particularly given that these ones won't have Fainsa Sophias), and the south WCML 3+2 730s, if they have the same layout as the awful 720s as I believe they will, will make me want to avoid LNR like the plague.

 

[Bald Rick]

The 80x stopper is more intended as a "souped up LNR service" and isn't really intended for London-Brum use, though I guess if it's a bit quiet (which it may not be, as it's only 7 car) they will release some very well priced Advances on it. I quite look forward to it from MKC, though, I prefer 80x to Pendolinos (particularly given that these ones won't have Fainsa Sophias), and the south WCML 3+2 730s, if they have the same layout as the awful 720s as I believe they will, will make me want to avoid LNR like the plague.

they will definitely have London to Brum Passengers on; as you say that will be where the advances are cheapest, and they won’t have enough London MK / Rugby and Watford/ MK / Rugby - West Mids passengers to fill them.

Personally, I would normally be picking these up at Watford, but I will most likely be heading via Euston, even if the door to door journey will be longer.

I'll dig the figures out tomorrow, but even with the MU speed changes the 80x are nowhere near keeping up with a Pendo.

I’ll save you a job, the 80x is 2 minutes slower than a Pendolino Euston - Rugby on a non-stop run.

 

[Efini92]

I'll dig the figures out tomorrow, but even with the MU speed changes the 80x are nowhere near keeping up with a Pendo.

Do you know what the planned MU speeds are to be?

 

[Bald Rick]

Do you know what the planned MU speeds are to be?

various speeds between 100 and 125!

 

[Class 170101]

Is there a difference in terms of journey time between Euston and Milton Keynes and from there to Rugby (direct route) on a Class 350 at 110mph versus Class 80x and if so how much?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is there a difference in terms of journey time between Euston and Milton Keynes and from there to Rugby (direct route) on a Class 350 at 110mph versus Class 80x and if so how much?

LNR nonstop services from Euston to MKC are timed at 32 minutes (or 31.5 in the working timetable), whereas Avanti Pendolino services are timed at 30 minutes (or 29.5 in the working timetable), so not a lot! The latter are very often late as that timing contains no slack whatsoever, I don't know about the former. So it's nominally 2 minutes difference on that journey.

It's hard to compare the 80x services as they'll call at Watford, MKC and Rugby - there's no LNR that only calls at those.

 

[The Planner]

LNR nonstop services from Euston to MKC are timed at 32 minutes (or 31.5 in the working timetable), whereas Avanti Pendolino services are timed at 30 minutes (or 29.5 in the working timetable), so not a lot! The latter are very often late as that timing contains no slack whatsoever, I don't know about the former. So it's nominally 2 minutes difference on that journey.

It's hard to compare the 80x services as they'll call at Watford, MKC and Rugby - there's no LNR that only calls at those.

80x doing all three stops is 52½, 390 is 50½, 350-110 is 54. Euston to Rugby non-stop there is a 2½ minute difference between a 390 and 80x. There is 1 minute between a 80x and 390 Euston to MK.
Bear in mind the 80x SRTs are proposed, they will get tweaked once they bed in.

 

[Geezertronic]

80x doing all three stops is 52½, 390 is 50½, 350-110 is 54. Euston to Rugby non-stop there is a 2½ minute difference between a 390 and 80x. There is 1 minute between a 80x and 390 Euston to MK.
Bear in mind the 80x SRTs are proposed, they will get tweaked once they bed in.

They do seem to vary a bit. The 0707 Rugby to Euston Avanti (non-stop) is scheduled for 54 minutes, the 0710 Rugby to Euston LNR (non-stop) is scheduled for 58 minutes, then the 0730 Rugby to Euston Avanti (non-stop) is scheduled for 49 minutes. Are those times just for the sake of the timetable and your times the accurate ones?

 

[The Planner]

They do seem to vary a bit. The 0707 Rugby to Euston Avanti (non-stop) is scheduled for 54 minutes, the 0710 Rugby to Euston LNR (non-stop) is scheduled for 58 minutes, then the 0730 Rugby to Euston Avanti (non-stop) is scheduled for 49 minutes. Are those times just for the sake of the timetable and your times the accurate ones?

Mine are straight SRTs, timetable can and will have different allowances and dwells.

 

[Geezertronic]

Mine are straight SRTs, timetable can and will have different allowances and dwells.

Yeah I guess the differences could be for fast-slow/slow-fast crossings as well. Maybe the 0658 LNR ex Northampton crosses from Slow to Fast after Leighton Buzzard before the LNR service mentioned above resulting in the longer time?

 

[The Planner]

Yeah I guess the differences could be for fast-slow/slow-fast crossings as well. Maybe the 0658 LNR ex Northampton crosses from Slow to Fast after Leighton Buzzard before the LNR service mentioned above resulting in the longer time?

7.07 has a chunk of pathing time in it as its following the Northampton Euston as you say crossing at Ledburn.

 

[paul1609]

I very carefully said that it was around 10 minutes when comparing a Pendolino at EPS with a Pendolino at MU. Because when the WC Route Mod was being planned, the Pendolino was the most advanced and best accelerating long distance rolling stock on offer.




This is a different comparison. But in any event they won’t be, not least because 80x won’t be going to Manchester. But, for example, they’ll lose half a minute at Linslade alone. Another half at Weedon. More at Berkhamsted, Bletchley, Wolverton, Banbury Lane, Rugby, etc etc.





Absolutely not. Tilt was (and remains) crucial to achieve the journey times to all the main WCML ‘Avanti’ destinations. It also has a sub benefit of improving the ride experienced by passengers. I know that when the 80x take over the Birmingham stopper in a year or so I will be definitely avoiding it in favour of the faster service for that very reason.

I'd like to see old fashioned speed trials between a 390 and a 395 (I believe the Hitachi at 3000 series was available at the time the 390s were ordered) . I reckon Euston to Manchester would only be a couple of minutes slower which could probably be pulled back by the much snappier DCO operation. Of course we could have installed the off the shelf TVM signalling system as well for 140 mph operation.

 

[The Planner]

I'd like to see old fashioned speed trials between a 390 and a 395 (I believe the Hitachi at 3000 series was available at the time the 390s were ordered) . I reckon Euston to Manchester would only be a couple of minutes slower which could probably be pulled back by the much snappier DCO operation. Of course we could have installed the off the shelf TVM signalling system as well for 140 mph operation.

TVM isn't ETCS level 3 which was the unicorn for the West Coast.

 

[paul1609]

TVM isn't ETCS level 3 which was the unicorn for the West Coast.

but of course it was installed on HS1 phase 2 and the EPS ballaises were a new system which weren't ETCS compatible either.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

80x doing all three stops is 52½, 390 is 50½, 350-110 is 54. Euston to Rugby non-stop there is a 2½ minute difference between a 390 and 80x. There is 1 minute between a 80x and 390 Euston to MK.
Bear in mind the 80x SRTs are proposed, they will get tweaked once they bed in.

221s get 29.5m Euston-MKC (WTT) on the xx10 path, the same as 390s, so 805 will have some work to do to match 221 times.

 

[The Planner]

221s get 29.5m Euston-MKC (WTT) on the xx10 path, the same as 390s, so 805 will have some work to do to match 221 times.

The 221 SRTs are a bit tight anyway.

 

[voyagerdude220]

221s get 29.5m Euston-MKC (WTT) on the xx10 path, the same as 390s

Am I right to think that 221s have a slightly lower EPS speed limit somewhere between Euston and Milton Keynes, owing to them tilting less than Pendolinos? Leighton Buzzard rings a bell. I think 221 limit is 115mph whereas Pendolinos can stay at 125?

(If I'm correct, surely 221s would lose a little time compared to Pendolinos and I think they're a little slower at accelerating as well.)

 

[Huntergreed]

Am I right to think that 221s have a slightly lower EPS speed limit somewhere between Euston and Milton Keynes, owing to them tilting less than Pendolinos? Leighton Buzzard rings a bell. I think 221 limit is 115mph whereas Pendolinos can stay at 125?

(If I'm correct, surely 221s would lose a little time compared to Pendolinos and I think they're a little slower at accelerating as well.)

That’s correct, there’s two sections with differential EPS between Euston and Milton Keynes, one through Berkhamsted (115 (221)/125 (390)) and one through Linslade Tunnel just after Leighton Buzzard (again 115 (221)/125 (390))