HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[Bletchleyite]

Maybe read my posts more carefully before putting the boot in?

I was in essence agreeing with you by pointing out another issue. You couldn't "use the GC" without removing a significant number of stopping Chiltern Railways services from Aylesbury to Marylebone, be they via Amersham or via Risborough.

 

[Mogster]

Leeds will get Trams, now that HS2 is getting cancelled.

The thought that Piccadilly 15&16 might get approved now has come to mind…

 

[JamesRowden]

The same sort of people who would currently travel from Euston. Euston isn't the be all and end all of passenger transport routes from across London.

If the services that currently run from Euston no longer do so passengers will have to travel from Old Oak Common, using whatever transport links are available to get there.

Heathrow and Gatwick Airport aren't in the centre of London yet people travel there to use planes.

And Old Oak Common could easily provide HS2 with interchanges with the following lines:

• GWML / Elizabeth Line (already planned)
• Richmond branch of the Overground (already proposed)
• West London Line Overground (already proposed)
• Central Line (just build some platforms where it passes the West of Old Oak Common)

Find a way to increase the frequency of the Overground line links, and many more lines are just a quick simple single change away.

Maybe the idea is that, since Old Oak Common needs extra capacity and connections during the period before HS2 reaches Euston, the act of providing these capacity and connections to Old Oak Common removes much of the need for Euston HS2 to be built?

For the last 6 years, I have made return journeys through London Zone 1 about 8 times a year to at least 5 different destinations, and I have not had London Zone 1 as a destination at any point during that period.

 

[Peter Sarf]

As a Mancunian I think it is time to ditch England and create a new country with Liverpool, and maybe Leeds and Sheffield if they wanted to join Sorry Newcastle you're just a bit too far. I am of course only half joking.

I live in Croydon and I feel as remote from Westminster as you do !.

Lets not forget that at the moment nothing is official so this could all be a storm in a teacup. I think it is most likely that Phase 1 (Euston to Lichfield ?) will get built and we will be thankful for that. It has become an alarmingly overbudget project though.

 

[21C101]

Oh quite so, maybe intention is to force Starmer to agree to fund the lot, then cancel the pricey bits?

If it isn't now cancelled there are going to be an awful lot of very annoyed core Tory voters to whom cancelling HS2 is a cause celebre.

The biggest threat to the governments chances of winning the election is core Tory voters sitting at home (or voting reform).

Cancelling HS2 is probably one of the most effective ways of getting them back onside short of getting the Royal Navy to start harpooning dinghys in the channel.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Maybe the idea is that, since Old Oak Common needs extra capacity and connections during the period before HS2 reaches Euston, the act of providing these capacity and connections to Old Oak Common removes much of the need for Euston HS2 to be built?

Unless they were going to change OOC to a larger terminus, it doesn't. Euston isn't just needed because it's in Central London (but it is very much needed for that reason), it's also because OOC won't have the capacity to reverse and service 9tph, which is what's required to move the full WCML fast service onto HS2.

 

[Peter Sarf]

And Old Oak Common could easily provide HS2 with interchanges with the following lines:

• GWML / Elizabeth Line (already planned)
• Richmond branch of the Overground (already proposed)
• West London Line Overground (already proposed)
• Central Line (just build some platforms where it passes the West of Old Oak Common)

Find a way to increase the frequency of the Overground line links, and many more lines are just a quick simple single change away.

Maybe the idea is that, since Old Oak Common needs extra capacity and connections during the period before HS2 reaches Euston, the act of providing these capacity and connections to Old Oak Common removes much of the need for Euston HS2 to be built?

For the last 6 years, I have made return journeys through London Zone 1 about 8 times a year to at least 5 different destinations, and I have not had London Zone 1 as a destination at any point during that period.

My bold. As soon as it became apparent that most of Phase 1 would open before Euston was ready I saw Old Oak Common as undermining the need for Euston. The fact that that last bit to Euston seems to be incredibly expensive and late is an own goal for HS2. Don't apply too much logic to the capabilities of Old Oak Common (capacity) - the large number next to the pound sign will have blinded most politicians.

 

[Krokodil]

Can East Kent join, leave London and the southwest. It could be an "overland territory"!

Sorry, you're the wrong side of the Severn-Wash line

Will still be vulnerable to people throwing bicycles on the track, peoole throwing themselves on the track and the OHLE knitting will still collapse occasionally

Have you seen the sort of security fencing that goes up along high speed lines? The knitting certainly won't come down as often as the headspans on the ECML do.

Certainly cancelling Leeds was a no brainer for that reason

No it wasn't, the idea that you shouldn't build a new line in case it adds a source of disruption to an existing one is daft.

(and boy did I get stick for pointing that out here before it was cancelled).

And so you should have done.

Manchester isn't really being cancelled, just being slowed down by a few minutes (especially if it ends at Crewe rather than Lichfield).

So no extra capacity through Stockport then?

The Northampton "but but but MK" whine is irrelevant - all trains on the south WCML post HS2 (if it were built in full) would call, because MK is more important than Northampton, always will be and will get more so.

A circumstance that some say ultimately lies at the feet of the original NIMBYs in the 1830s.

The Great Central is otherwise known as "Chiltern Railways", and removing all the commuter services from it to turn it into a freight line would be rather unpopular, not least in a key Tory heartland. So not happening.

That would have been an interesting offer to make to them. "You have a choice, we either build a new high speed line or you lose your commuter trains". The opposition would have been silenced overnight and billions could have been saved in 'green tunnels'.

 

[JamesRowden]

Unless they were going to change OOC to a larger terminus, it doesn't. Euston isn't just needed because it's in Central London (but it is very much needed for that reason), it's also because OOC won't have the capacity to reverse and service 9tph, which is what's required to move the full WCML fast service onto HS2.

4 platforms can easily terminate 9tph. Just look at some existing London terminals. The float time is all put at the country end of the timetable rather than the London end.

 

[Midnight13]

4 platforms can easily terminate 9tph. Just look at some existing London terminals. The float time is all put at the country end of the timetable rather than the London end.

How can you increase the turnaround times at the country end when Manchester and Glasgow don’t have the capacity for long turnarounds?

 

[Bletchleyite]

4 platforms can easily terminate 9tph. Just look at some existing London terminals. The float time is all put at the country end of the timetable rather than the London end.

It's a long distance premier InterCity route (other than the Birminghams). You don't want to be sending everything back out within ten minutes with all the coffee cups and crisp packets still all over the floor and no time to stock the buffet, first class kitchen and trolley, there needs to be time to properly service the trains, which means you need a dwell at the London end of at least 20 minutes, ideally 30 (and add a bit on so it leaves again on the correct clockface time). It isn't Southern, Southeastern or SWR, and cannot be compared with those.

You also don't want to be interworking the branches too much as it causes delays to cascade across the whole operation. (I'm aware the nonsensical Avanti working agreements don't allow two trips the same in the same day for crews, but as I recall most crews only do one round trip a day anyway, it's only when you work a Birmingham that a second one is viable).

For a properly maintained, resilient InterCity service you really need about 0.8 to 1 platforms for 1tph, or thereabouts, minimum. Look at how the four platforms of EMR's bit of St Pancras struggled with 4tph, and I'm sure are now even worse with six. (That station was designed for the 2tph operated on the Midland in BR days).

I suppose you could tunnel out some reversing sidings, but would that be much cheaper than just finishing Euston?

 

[Krokodil]

The thought that Piccadilly 15&16 might get approved now has come to mind…

Not to mention remodelling Oxford Road.

Crikey, was that a pig I saw flying through the sky?

If it isn't now cancelled there are going to be an awful lot of very annoyed core Tory voters to whom cancelling HS2 is a cause celebre.

What are they going to do about it? Vote Labour? Hardly!

The biggest threat to the governments chances of winning the election is core Tory voters sitting at home

No, it's the swing voters who will lose this election for them. The ones such as those in the North who now know that the Tories still don't care about them.

 

[Merle Haggard]

A circumstance that some say ultimately lies at the feet of the original NIMBYs in the 1830s.

A long-debunked myth! Mr Stephenson himself said something on the lines of 'I could indeed get a train into Northampton; but not out again'. There's even a recent book about the whole episode.

The whole London and Birmingham line was built on a ruling gradient of about 1 in 300 (because of the loco. performance of the time) so it would have needed a very high embankment to serve Northampton...

The poor rail service is irrelevant to the other Northampton residents that I encounter. Much more important to them is being on the M1, near to the M6 junction and having dual carriageway road links to the East and West. Sad but true...

 

[Bletchleyite]

What are they going to do about it? Vote Labour? Hardly!

They won't vote Labour but they may vote for Farridge's mob, which would split the right wing vote and make the left wing more likely to win.

 

[sikejsudjek]

Wales should get it's matched funding. What's left of HS2 is an England only project now.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Wales should get it's matched funding. What's left of HS2 is an England only project now.

HS2 has never directly benefitted Wales in any form, diesel is to be banned from the Chiltern tunnels so the North Wales through service is to remain on the classic line, though could be sped up a bit by removing all the stops south of Crewe. Though agreeing to pay to wire the North Wales Coast would be helpful, then it could become an HS2 service.

 

[21C101]

No it wasn't, the idea that you shouldn't build a new line in case it adds a source of disruption to an existing one is daft.

A source of disruption to one existing line is one thing. Combining the principal services on all three lines to the onto one pair of tracks between Birmingham and London is another matter entirely.

As to Stockport. There are rather better value ways of increasing capacity that dont cost tens of billions of pounds. Resignalling properly so that the line isn't operated by Victorian mechanical interlockings would be a good start.

You could also reinstate one of the through roads with a new platform on the other as done at Gravesend and with a bit more effort and removal of one of the through sidings turn the down island platform into two islands with four through roads rather than one island with two through roads and two little used bays.

And if you really want to push the boat out then a flyover south of the station at Adsworth Road north of Levenshulme (like that on the SWML north of Wimbledon) would allow the whole four track section to be paired up down up down eliminating all sorts of conflicting moves and massively increasing capacity on the whole route.

It's a long distance premier InterCity route (other than the Birminghams). You don't want to be sending everything back out within ten minutes with all the coffee cups and crisp packets still all over the floor and no time to stock the buffet, first class kitchen and trolley, there needs to be time to properly service the trains, which means you need a dwell at the London end of at least 20 minutes, ideally 30 (and add a bit on so it leaves again on the correct clockface time). It isn't Southern, Southeastern or SWR, and cannot be compared with those.

You also don't want to be interworking the branches too much as it causes delays to cascade across the whole operation. (I'm aware the nonsensical Avanti working agreements don't allow two trips the same in the same day for crews, but as I recall most crews only do one round trip a day anyway, it's only when you work a Birmingham that a second one is viable).

For a properly maintained, resilient InterCity service you really need about 0.8 to 1 platforms for 1tph, or thereabouts, minimum. Look at how the four platforms of EMR's bit of St Pancras struggled with 4tph, and I'm sure are now even worse with six. (That station was designed for the 2tph operated on the Midland in BR days).

I suppose you could tunnel out some reversing sidings, but would that be much cheaper than just finishing Euston?

Thats why I think that if Euston gets canned half of them will go to Paddington with Heathrow Express and all non intercity stoppers and Semifasts to Oxford and Newbury transferred to Crossrail to make space

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thats why I think that if Euston gets canned half of them will go to Paddington with Heathrow Express and all non intercity stoppers and Semifasts to Oxford and Newbury transferred to Crossrail to make space

I very much doubt any of them will ever go to Paddington. Though that would, if actually feasible, be better than terminating them all at OOC. Paddington is in the sticks, but not as in the sticks as OOC is.

 

[21C101]

HS2 has never directly benefitted Wales in any form, diesel is to be banned from the Chiltern tunnels so the North Wales through service is to remain on the classic line, though could be sped up a bit by removing all the stops south of Crewe. Though agreeing to pay to wire the North Wales Coast would be helpful, then it could become an HS2 service.

Or they could attach a hefty diesel loco onto it at Crewe.

I very much doubt any of them will ever go to Paddington. Though that would, if actually feasible, be better than terminating them all at OOC. Paddington is in the sticks, but not as in the sticks as OOC is.

It would be quite ironic if the Birmingham services ended up at Paddington....

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It will only be a few minutes less via the existing line north of either Lichfield or Crewe (depending where they end it) and there is stacks of capacity north of Lichfield due to the Trent Valley being quadrupled a while back.

There may well be 'stacks of capacity' from Lichfield to Stafford or a bit beyond, but I don't think that's true as you head nearer to Manchester: I believe capacity is huge problem for example between Stockport and Manchester, preventing more frequent commuter services to places South of Manchester. Although having said that, I'm not sure HS2 would've done that much to alleviate that particular problem.

 

[800001]

This may of been mentioned, but could this be the tories spinning the ‘leaks’, saying X, Y and Z is getting binned, but when they come to announce what they are doing they only bin Z, so that it’s doesn’t sound as bad?

 

[21C101]

There may well be 'stacks of capacity' from Lichfield to Stafford or a bit beyond, but I don't think that's true as you head nearer to Manchester: I believe capacity is huge problem for example between Stockport and Manchester, preventing more frequent commuter services to places South of Manchester. Although having said that, I'm not sure HS2 would've done that much to alleviate that particular problem.

Yes. Ive addressed the Stockport to Manchester issue in response to Krokodil a few posts above.

(in short more through platforms at stockport and a grade separated junction where it goes from two to four tracks south of Stockport at Adswood Road so a paired up down up down formation can be in place all the way from there to Piccadilly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There may well be 'stacks of capacity' from Lichfield to Stafford or a bit beyond, but I don't think that's true as you head nearer to Manchester: I believe capacity is huge problem for example between Stockport and Manchester, preventing more frequent commuter services to places South of Manchester. Although having said that, I'm not sure HS2 would've done that much to alleviate that particular problem.

HS2 in full would have removed two fast services per hour from the route via Stockport, as well as allowing the XC service to be turned into a more Liverpool like semifast service (replaced by a HS2 Manchester-Birmingham service, which would have the biggest speed gain of any HS2 service if I recall), and thus made considerable improvements to local services south of Manchester.

2B is arguably more beneficial than 2A for that reason - 2A does free up paths on the Trent, but there isn't really much to do with them bar adding one more semifast and a bit of freight. The key reason to do 2A is just that it's by far the cheapest bit as it's just through open farmland.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

I hope that some sort of compromise may be reached where they could build as far as Crewe and then offer some sort of improvements to the infrastructure around Manchester and Liverpool I would say something like Piccadilly platforms 14 and 15 as well as further electrification including Liverpool and Manchester electrification possible funding for expansion of Merseyrail network including BEMU and Edge Hill Spur CLC electrification via Warrington Central and obviously the planned Metrolink extensions local projects could be raised by the MCAs through business rate supplements as with Crossrail in London good to see the mayors are putting pressure on as said above if HS2 does not go into Manchester something needs to be done to relieve Castlefield corridor either 15 or 16 or some sort of tunnel under Manchester but at least that proposal will be better than nothing just my suggestion as I have been ranting a bit today don't normally rant about railways and politics even though I have an interest in both but - Metrolink extensions may eventually have to include tunnelling aswell. Would be better than nothing but in a Crewe only scenario would this cause capacity issues routing via Stockport I know that would be closer to the German or even French model of HS trains running the last few miles to their destination on classic lines

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It would be quite ironic if the Birmingham services ended up at Paddington....

I could actually see that as a half-plausible solution, albeit requiring new infrastructure and assuming it's possible to add more capacity at Paddington more cheaply than building to Euston. But the ultimate irony has to be that, if they did that, it would make building the whole Old Oak Common station almost pointless, since Old Oak Common gives very few connections that you can't get at Paddington anyway!

 

[Krokodil]

A long-debunked myth!

I did add "some say" for a reason

They won't vote Labour but they may vote for Farridge's mob, which would split the right wing vote and make the left wing more likely to win.

No chance. Farage is as close to retired as politicians get. UKIP got the third highest vote share of any party in 2015, going into double digits. Neither UKIP or ReformUK is a disruptive force any more.

Wales should get it's matched funding. What's left of HS2 is an England only project now.

Always struck me as odd that Scotland (which stood to get direct services) got Barnett funding, but Wales didn't. I assume that the reason was political.

 

[JonathanH]

I could actually see that as a half-plausible solution, albeit requiring new infrastructure and assuming it's possible to add more capacity at Paddington more cheaply than building to Euston.

Paddington has 12 full length platforms and a short bay and the Elizabeth Line is accessed using its approach lines. Old Oak Common is pretty much the place nearest to Paddington where there is any hope of terminating trains from HS2. How are the HS2 lines going to get into Paddington without severing Elizabeth Line services?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I could actually see that as a half-plausible solution, albeit requiring new infrastructure and assuming it's possible to add more capacity at Paddington more cheaply than building to Euston. But the ultimate irony has to be that, if they did that, it would make building the whole Old Oak Common station almost pointless, since Old Oak Common gives very few connections that you can't get at Paddington anyway!

Paddington is surrounded on all sides by buildings (including some big new tower blocks on the north side), so there's not really any scope to add any more. However capacity could potentially be gained by abolishing Heathrow Express and moving all the other local EMU services onto Crossrail, as someone said above. I reckon it'd only free up about 4 platforms, though, so you'd not really get the full 9tph in, and I don't know about pathing on the station approaches, and a couple of the platforms freed up would just be the short suburban ones of no use for HS2 units.

 

[Horizon22]

And Old Oak Common could easily provide HS2 with interchanges with the following lines:

• GWML / Elizabeth Line (already planned)
• Richmond branch of the Overground (already proposed)
• West London Line Overground (already proposed)
• Central Line (just build some platforms where it passes the West of Old Oak Common)

Find a way to increase the frequency of the Overground line links, and many more lines are just a quick simple single change away.

Maybe the idea is that, since Old Oak Common needs extra capacity and connections during the period before HS2 reaches Euston, the act of providing these capacity and connections to Old Oak Common removes much of the need for Euston HS2 to be built?

For the last 6 years, I have made return journeys through London Zone 1 about 8 times a year to at least 5 different destinations, and I have not had London Zone 1 as a destination at any point during that period.

In bold has no concrete plans at all.

The Elizabeth line could not cope with the planned service and expected passenger numbers of terminating services considering the trains are already busy from Heathrow / Central London. The request has been made for more trains which is to be funded from somewhere related to HS2 if that goes ahead. I mean who knows what sort of frequency is planned to run in future now though.

I do like the "just find a way" whereas it could have just been committed as planned because other alternatives will be just as costly.

I could actually see that as a half-plausible solution, albeit requiring new infrastructure and assuming it's possible to add more capacity at Paddington more cheaply than building to Euston. But the ultimate irony has to be that, if they did that, it would make building the whole Old Oak Common station almost pointless, since Old Oak Common gives very few connections that you can't get at Paddington anyway!

Less than half considering a completely different gradient level!

This may of been mentioned, but could this be the tories spinning the ‘leaks’, saying X, Y and Z is getting binned, but when they come to announce what they are doing they only bin Z, so that it’s doesn’t sound as bad?

There isn't much left to bin! It's already scaled back to OOC - Manchester, with Euston delayed otherwise you'd be scrapping the whole project.

The whole thing is completely typical British infrastructure exceptionalism, and it's infruriating to watch.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

2B is arguably more beneficial than 2A for that reason - 2A does free up paths on the Trent, but there isn't really much to do with them bar adding one more semifast and a bit of freight. The key reason to do 2A is just that it's by far the cheapest bit as it's just through open farmland.

So if I'm reading that right, if you wanted to save a bit of money, you could just scrap phase 2A but still build something like 2B - having HS2 trains join the WCML at Lichfield and then leave again via a new grade-separated junction, presumably somewhere around Crewe?