If the last of the BR steam engines had been allowed to live out their natural lifespan, when would they have been withdrawn?

[Mogz]

There is the odd picture here and there on the internet of “fantasy” liveries, some of which relate to fictional 70s BR steam.



This got me thinking, if the Modernisation Plan had not happened, and the 50s built BR steam locomotives had been allowed to live out their “natural” lifespans, when would the last of them have been withdrawn from service?

Any thoughts?

 

[simonw]

I believe theoretical plan was mid 70s as with France and Germany who made it into the 70s.

The rapidly deteriorating financial situation and declined line closures and loss of other traffic meant reality was a little different

 

[CW2]

There are so many other factors that would come into play as well as the "natural" lifespan of the locomotives. Taking Poland as an example, they were still using wartime 2-10-0 locomotives into the 1990s on regular service trains, but that was because they had plentiful supplies of cheap coal, low labour costs (because steam is labour intensive), and a collapsing economy which meant buying new diesel locos and diesel fuel was a low priority. So their railways were using steam locos that were 50+ years old, which had been built as a wartime austerity measure. The environmental costs of wholesale use of coal fired locomotives can be quite severe - especially if paired with coal-burning power stations /domestic use.

We could have dieselised / electrified a little more slowly, allowing some stem locos to see out their "natural" lifespan, but I'm not sure what the benefits of that would have been (at the practical working level).

 

[Gloster]

I have a recollection of reading that the very earliest plan, quite possibly never laid out in detail, would have seen steam lasting until the early 1980s. There would have been a steady concentration of the remaining locos in fewer and fewer parts of the country, presumably those close to coalfields, and also increasingly limiting them to goods work. This seems to have quickly been altered so that the mid-1970s became the target.

 

[etr221]

This got me thinking, if the Modernisation Plan had not happened, and the 50s built BR steam locomotives had been allowed to live out their “natural” lifespans, when would the last of them have been withdrawn from service?

Taking the "natural" lifespan of a steam loco as 40 to 50 years, then the BR's 1950s built steam locos would have lasted into the decades of the 1990s or 2000s. But a lot would depend on what did happen: had the alternative to reality been to "stick with steam", then that is would probably have happened, with the last survivors, along with newer (steam) locos being still in service (maybe - or ? - would there have been a later "move from steam"?). Alternatively, had it been a slow(er) move from steam, as 'normal replacement', then I think by some point around 1980 (give or take 10 years or so) then there would have been a move away from steam, getting rid of the 'steam infrastructure', with an 'end of steam' sometime in the 1980s (with a "natural lifespan" of 20-30 years)

 

[Brush 4]

I had always assumed a 40 year life span for steam. Given that some ancient NE engines survived into 1967 and the O2's until Dec 66, this seems quite modest. Using the 40 year rule to the letter. The end of steam would have been March 2000. 92220 would have been the last loco in service, working specials all over the place. A few younger locos would have been retained for those specials, 92219, a Std 5, 4 and a Brit, to work the many Society specials and then, the 50 quid special as it would have been known....

 

[Mogz]

Wow! Imagine a 9F in Intercity swallow livery or a Standard 4 in Regional Railways…

 

[NoRoute]

To live out their full mechanical lifespan depends on there being a demand for them to operate railway services, but if the railways had continued to operate steam locomotives into the 1970s or 1980s when every other mode of transport was undergoing massive modernisation and improvement, then I doubt there would be much of a railway left, so either way they'd have been scrapped but they would have dragged most of the railway network to the scrap yard with them.

When you read about how the American railways were developing diesel engines decades before the British railway companies and the development of electric traction in Europe and America, really the natural life of those steam engines should have been zero because they shouldn't have been built in the first place.

 

[RT4038]

Steam locomotives require pretty extensive overhaul quite frequently (boiler, motion, cylinders etc), so why would these overhauls have been funded, irrespective of the notional 'working life' of the locomotive frames etc? However, relatively modern locomotives were so treated in South Africa, for instance, but there were political, social and economic reasons for that which just didn't exist here.

 

[xotGD]

I just can't get my head around the notion of steam still being in service on the day of the Deltic Farewell!

 

[randyrippley]

The 1984 miners strike would have killed off the remaining few

 

[simonw]

Taking the "natural" lifespan of a steam loco as 40 to 50 years, then the BR's 1950s built steam locos would have lasted into the decades of the 1990s or 2000s. But a lot would depend on what did happen: had the alternative to reality been to "stick with steam", then that is would probably have happened, with the last survivors, along with newer (steam) locos being still in service (maybe - or ? - would there have been a later "move from steam"?). Alternatively, had it been a slow(er) move from steam, as 'normal replacement', then I think by some point around 1980 (give or take 10 years or so) then there would have been a move away from steam, getting rid of the 'steam infrastructure', with an 'end of steam' sometime in the 1980s (with a "natural lifespan" of 20-30 years)

I had always assumed a 40 year life span for steam. Given that some ancient NE engines survived into 1967 and the O2's until Dec 66, this seems quite modest. Using the 40 year rule to the letter. The end of steam would have been March 2000. 92220 would have been the last loco in service, working specials all over the place. A few younger locos would have been retained for those specials, 92219, a Std 5, 4 and a Brit, to work the many Society specials and then, the 50 quid special as it would have been known....

I don't think 40 years was the average lifespan of steam. Post ww 2 a fair few loco s did last that long but that was more due to the impact of the war on replacement and the run down of steam.

 

[Bevan Price]

Until WW2 and the post-war financial problems, the typical life of an express passenger steam loco was around 25 to 30 years, so the last Britannias might have been expected to last until about 1980 - 1985. Mixed traffic locos lasted a little longer, maybe 30-40 years, so a few might have survived until 1990 - 1995. It was small freight & shunting locos that traditionally had the longest lives - typically around 40-50 years (although as a consequence of WW2, some had to last for over 70 years.)

However, that fails to take account of the Marples-Beeching closures, and the difficulties of obtaining staff willing to do hard, dirty work. So, maybe 1975-1980 if we steam enthusiasts had been very lucky.

One side-effect of keeping steam for longer might have been that passengers might not have been inflicted with some pretty awful dmus with 3+2 seating, that were used on long trips for which they were totally unsuitable (e.g. Birmingham / Norwich, Cambrian lines, etc.)

 

[edwin_m]

One side-effect of keeping steam for longer might have been that passengers might not have been inflicted with some pretty awful dmus with 3+2 seating, that were used on long trips for which they were totally unsuitable (e.g. Birmingham / Norwich, Cambrian lines, etc.)

Although of course when said DMUs first appeared, they were hailed as a major advance over the slow and dirty steam-hauled trains they replaced!

 

[Gloster]

Although of course when said DMUs first appeared, they were hailed as a major advance over the slow and dirty steam-hauled trains they replaced!

...and you could see the view of the line ahead.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Since the last of the steam trains were built in the late 1950s we would have seen steam engines running up to the early 2000s, with the withdrawal process beginning in the early 1980s.

The steam engines by the 1980s-2000s would have served countryside branch lines and freight routes, I doubt many would have served main line routes.

 

[Irascible]

The 1984 miners strike would have killed off the remaining few

It possibly killed off the last of the NCB steam, I can't remember when that pit closed - could have been a couple of years before.

Thte odd use of steam into the 70s would probably have made sense, releasing pressure on the rush to modernise that resulted in a whole lot of "modern" classes that didn't really last any longer - and the railway infrastructure didn't really change a lot for a while, it was basically the same railway with a different noise up front. Any longer than the mid 70s would have started causing real problems, I'd think.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Imagine how much hatred 66s would get if they'd finished off the 9Fs as well as 56s and 58s!

 

[D6130]

Imagine a 9F in Intercity swallow livery

I would think that would have been highly unlikely as the 9Fs were heavy freight locos - except on the Somerset and Dorset Joint line - although they were capable of a good turn of speed when called upon to replace a failed passenger loco in emergency. 80 mph was not unknown occasionally on the ECML.

 

[quantinghome]

Would have been very strange seeing steam trains in regular service at the same time as IC125s.

 

[Ashley Hill]

Don’t forget the Vale of Rheidol was in BR ownership until the late 1980s.
Here’s a photo that’s not photoshopped from wiki commons.

 

[HYPODERMIC]

What a fascinating photo! I find something a bit eerily/unsettling about the BR double-arrow on steam locomotives - there's something very uncanny/anachronistic about it. I love both steam and the double-arrow symbol, but the combination of two feels weird.

 

[Wolfie]

Lots of posts, in talking about relatively modern classes would have been in service with steam trains, make the highly questionable assumption that known historical rolling-stock development would have continued in exactly the same way. That to me is seriously unlikely.

My suspicion is that by the 1970s, likely around the 73 oil crisis, UK would have been desperately looking for diesel locos (and possibly DMUs) which, given that there would be either no, or at best a very limited, indigenous capability, would likely have been bought from overseas.

 

[70014IronDuke]

I believe theoretical plan was mid 70s as with France and Germany who made it into the 70s.

The rapidly deteriorating financial situation and declined line closures and loss of other traffic meant reality was a little different

I think it's fair to say German (BDR) steam "made it" into the 70s, sure. There was some wonderful old P8 stuff going (just) in 73 in the Tubingen area, with modern stuff - pacifics and 2-8-2s on the Rheine - Emden line until, was it 76 or 77?

But French steam was really winding down by 1970, and after September that year, when Calais - Boulogne - Amiens went 98% diesel, I think there was only a bit around Narbonne and Sarreguemines (spelling?). Oh, I forgot the Paris Nord suburban workings. with 141TCs, which went electric in November or December 70.

What France did that BR most certainly did not do was allow steam to be fired up when needed, so odd workings carried on for some years. I saw a 141R work out of Sarreguemines in April 1973, but I don't think you could guarantee seeing anything every day.

So yes, technically, SNCF steam did 'last' until, I think, 1975 - but in reality, there was damn all to see after the end of 1970. (Unless there was more in the Narbonne area that I've forgotten about. It was a darned long way away, and if you were going that far, you might as well carry on to Spain and Portugal - which was what I did!)

I think the best answer for the OP would be to see the costings - how long were the Standard designs amortised over? And let's not forget the rebuilds of the Bulleid pacifics, which were going on until 1960 or so? (And costing a fair whack!) I'd expect they were all costed for a lifetime of 30 years, so sometime into the 1980s.

 

[Irascible]

Lots of posts, in talking about relatively modern classes would have been in service with steam trains, make the highly questionable assumption that known historical rolling-stock development would have continued in exactly the same way. That to me is seriously unlikely.

My suspicion is that by the 1970s, likely around the 73 oil crisis, UK would have been desperately looking for diesel locos (and possibly DMUs) which, given that there would be either no, or at best a very limited, indigenous capability, would likely have been bought from overseas.

I can't envisage steam doing more than working freight around areas with coal supplies by the 70s anyway - the DMUs would have arrived for sure, there's no real comparison in costs. There was a lull in diesel locomotive orders after the rushed modernisation plan which did much the same as the similar one in the 90s, so a slower dieselisation might well have kept enough industry around that'd mean we'd have enough domestic capacity left to actually build heavy freight classes in the 70s. The oil crisis would be a reason to retain steam, not replace it with things that burn oil anyway! more damning would probably have been the 70s manning crises.

 

[Western Sunset]

If planned electrification schemes by the Big Four had gone ahead, steam might not have even lasted until 1968...

 

[simonw]

I think it's fair to say German (BDR) steam "made it" into the 70s, sure. There was some wonderful old P8 stuff going (just) in 73 in the Tubingen area, with modern stuff - pacifics and 2-8-2s on the Rheine - Emden line until, was it 76 or 77?

But French steam was really winding down by 1970, and after September that year, when Calais - Boulogne - Amiens went 98% diesel, I think there was only a bit around Narbonne and Sarreguemines (spelling?). Oh, I forgot the Paris Nord suburban workings. with 141TCs, which went electric in November or December 70.

What France did that BR most certainly did not do was allow steam to be fired up when needed, so odd workings carried on for some years. I saw a 141R work out of Sarreguemines in April 1973, but I don't think you could guarantee seeing anything every day.

So yes, technically, SNCF steam did 'last' until, I think, 1975 - but in reality, there was damn all to see after the end of 1970. (Unless there was more in the Narbonne area that I've forgotten about. It was a darned long way away, and if you were going that far, you might as well carry on to Spain and Portugal - which was what I did!)

I think the best answer for the OP would be to see the costings - how long were the Standard designs amortised over? And let's not forget the rebuilds of the Bulleid pacifics, which were going on until 1960 or so? (And costing a fair whack!) I'd expect they were all costed for a lifetime of 30 years, so sometime into the 1980s.

Yes I have several photos I took of p8s in 1973, a trip to Tubingen shed found only one loco on shed but 52s operating through the station

A visit to Verdun revealed a large number of withdrawn locos , in 1973.

 

[edwin_m]

Lots of posts, in talking about relatively modern classes would have been in service with steam trains, make the highly questionable assumption that known historical rolling-stock development would have continued in exactly the same way. That to me is seriously unlikely.

My suspicion is that by the 1970s, likely around the 73 oil crisis, UK would have been desperately looking for diesel locos (and possibly DMUs) which, given that there would be either no, or at best a very limited, indigenous capability, would likely have been bought from overseas.

Pretty much what happened with the first tranche of Class 56 subcontracted to Romania. Perhaps if steam was still extant at the time of the oil crisis, its reliance on domestic fuel would have given it something of a boost?

 

[Railwaysceptic]

I think the best answer for the OP would be to see the costings - how long were the Standard designs amortised over? And let's not forget the rebuilds of the Bulleid pacifics, which were going on until 1960 or so? (And costing a fair whack!) I'd expect they were all costed for a lifetime of 30 years, so sometime into the 1980s.

Those Bulleid Pacifics were still being used on the Bournemouth Main Line until completion of electrification. In his still interesting book British Rail After Beeching, G. Freeman Allen says Southern Region Management planned an "Indian summer" of steam on the route to Exeter but that idea was abandoned when the area was transferred to the Western Region.

 

[HSTEd]

Given the enormous labour costs of coal fired steam, would it be cheaper to operate them with 25kV powered heat elements than as steam locomotives fired with coal?

also perhaps some oil conversions if you want to squeeze additional life out of them?