Is it time to relax the 2m social distancing guideline? (WHO guidance is 1m)

[duncanp]

Can you provide a link to this article? I can't find anything

The article was on the Daily Telegraph website, but it seems to have disappeared now.

There are similar articles on all the other news sites if you look for them.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A bit annoying?? What you're suggesting would involve the complete and total collapse of almost the entire hospitality industry.

As it would be just about only hospitality and theatres affected, we could pay them a far better subsidy to keep them "paused" than just furlough.

 

[Scrotnig]

As it would be just about only hospitality and theatres affected, we could pay them a far better subsidy to keep them "paused" than just furlough.

But there probably won't ever be a vaccine. The government have made that clear. So are you saying we keep all hospitality closed permanently?
Do you realise how much of our economy relies on hospitality?
Not just the establishments themselves but the entire supply chain?

Where's the money to fund all this to come from?

 

[Bletchleyite]

But there probably won't ever be a vaccine. The government have made that clear. So are you saying we keep all hospitality closed permanently?

It is unlikely that one of these three things won't happen:
1. A vaccine
2. An effective treatment
3. The virus mutates to be less harmful

It may however take a few years. We may have to do that, yes. I'm not a "lockdown enthusiast", but I don't think that "let it run and kill many of our parents and grandparents" will be tolerated. Alcohol-based indoor hospitality is a huge, huge problem, in particular because of the alcohol part - people will get drunk and ignore distancing entirely.

Where's the money to fund all this to come from?

On the short term, I, as someone whose job is unaffected, would see it as fair that I should pay more tax.

 

[yorksrob]

It is unlikely that one of these three things won't happen:
1. A vaccine
2. An effective treatment
3. The virus mutates to be less harmful

It may however take a few years. We may have to do that, yes. I'm not a "lockdown enthusiast", but I don't think that "let it run and kill many of our parents and grandparents" will be tolerated. Alcohol-based indoor hospitality is a huge, huge problem, in particular because of the alcohol part - people will get drunk and ignore distancing entirely.



On the short term, I, as someone whose job is unaffected, would see it as fair that I should pay more tax.

There must be ways to enable some level of indoor hospitality whilst mitigating against a runaway wave of infections.

We can't have the hospitality industry shut down for years on end.

You must frequent a differnt sort of establishment than me, because the pubs I go to people aren't all going around hugging eachother every five minutes.

 

[Scrotnig]

It is unlikely that one of these three things won't happen:
1. A vaccine
2. An effective treatment
3. The virus mutates to be less harmful

It may however take a few years. We may have to do that, yes. I'm not a "lockdown enthusiast", but I don't think that "let it run and kill many of our parents and grandparents" will be tolerated. Alcohol-based indoor hospitality is a huge, huge problem, in particular because of the alcohol part - people will get drunk and ignore distancing entirely.



On the short term, I, as someone whose job is unaffected, would see it as fair that I should pay more tax.

Quite apart from the financial non feasibility of any of that, what do you think everyone is supposed to do with their leisure time if all leisure activities are banned? Just meekly sit at home 24/7? For years? Really?

And I see we're back to "going outside will kill everyone's granny". I despair. Let's just shoot everyone, that'll stop the virus.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There must be ways to enable some level of indoor hospitality whilst mitigating against a runaway wave of infections.

We can't have the hospitality industry shut down for years on end.

I'm not sure there is, and I do know my friend in PHE believes that this is a "last straw", i.e. there is no point doing anything else if we reopen pubs etc at a 1m distance because it is by far the highest risk of any of the options.

The only viable way I can think of is the idea of compulsory identity so you can consider the whole pub/restaurant some sort of "bubble", and if one case is identified everyone who was there when that person was must self-isolate. I am genuinely not sure I would take that risk. I'm rather less bothered about catching it, but I am very, very bothered indeed about a 14 day prison sentence.

 

[Scrotnig]

I'm not sure there is, and I do know my friend in PHE believes that this is a "last straw", i.e. there is no point doing anything else if we reopen pubs etc at a 1m distance because it is by far the highest risk of any of the options.

The only viable way I can think of is the idea of compulsory identity so you can consider the whole pub/restaurant some sort of "bubble", and if one case is identified everyone who was there when that person was must self-isolate. I am genuinely not sure I would take that risk. I'm rather less bothered about catching it, but I am very, very bothered indeed about a 14 day prison sentence.

I don't like the registration idea either and probably wouldn't go, but I have no right to impose my view on others who might be perfectly happpy with that risk.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm not sure there is, and I do know my friend in PHE believes that this is a "last straw", i.e. there is no point doing anything else if we reopen pubs etc at a 1m distance because it is by far the highest risk of any of the options.

The only viable way I can think of is the idea of compulsory identity so you can consider the whole pub/restaurant some sort of "bubble", and if one case is identified everyone who was there when that person was must self-isolate. I am genuinely not sure I would take that risk. I'm rather less bothered about catching it, but I am very, very bothered indeed about a 14 day prison sentence.

We're all at risk of a 14 day prison sentence anyway, so I don't see the difference if it comes from being in the pub.

I notice that your friend specifically mentioned a 1m distance. Did he say why he was wedded to 1m when other countries have never bothered with it ?

 

[Bletchleyite]

We're all at risk of a 14 day prison sentence anyway, so I don't see the difference if it comes from being in the pub.

I have relatively few close contacts in "current normal" life - single figures in fact, mostly only one, though a second possibility if I was a bit careless. Therefore I have a very, very low risk of this, as there is basically only one, two at a push, person/people who could cause me to need to self-isolate by testing positive.

Increasing that to a whole pubfull, and possibly a different set of people each time I go, increases that risk hugely.

I notice that your friend specifically mentioned a 1m distance. Did he say why he was wedded to 1m when other countries have never bothered with it ?

Sorry, I don't quite understand the question - do you mean why 2m? Because the risk at 2m is 10 to 15 times lower.

 

[westv]

Lots of nightclubs and similar scan your ID on the door these days - when I lived near a University going to one of their nights required an ID to be scanned for entry (at the time, I had a CitizenCard which although they said was not accepted, they put it through the machine and it recognised it, so happy days ) and as @Bletchleyite says Pink Punters as well. As well as a number of other places. It was just accepted, get an ID, or don't go out!

May I ask how old you are?

 

[Scrotnig]

I've never been asked for ID at a pub, and if I was, the last thing I'd let them do is scan it! No opportunity for fraud and misuse there is there!

This country has gone completely insane.

 

[Bantamzen]

I'm not sure there is, and I do know my friend in PHE believes that this is a "last straw", i.e. there is no point doing anything else if we reopen pubs etc at a 1m distance because it is by far the highest risk of any of the options.

The only viable way I can think of is the idea of compulsory identity so you can consider the whole pub/restaurant some sort of "bubble", and if one case is identified everyone who was there when that person was must self-isolate. I am genuinely not sure I would take that risk. I'm rather less bothered about catching it, but I am very, very bothered indeed about a 14 day prison sentence.

IDs are not compulsory in this country. So if the government insisted that pubs, restaurants etc enforce a ruling that ID must be presented, how would that stand up legally? Individual pubs & clubs might have their own policies, and the law does allow them to enforce checks on potentially under-age drinkers, but given that we do not have a compulsory ID system I fail to see how this could be enforced.

 

[yorksrob]

I have relatively few close contacts in "current normal" life - single figures in fact, mostly only one, though a second possibility if I was a bit careless. Therefore I have a very, very low risk of this, as there is basically only one, two at a push, person/people who could cause me to need to self-isolate by testing positive.

Increasing that to a whole pubfull, and possibly a different set of people each time I go, increases that risk hugely.

I don't really socialise with many people through the week either - a couple of friends for outdoor activities on the Saturday, maybe someone for a walk on a weekday. In a way, that's why a potential 2 weeks of quarantine doesn't seem such a risk - I would lose 2 saturdays of leisure and sometimes a nice walk with someone and that's it.

I see this very much in the same vein as face coverings on public transport. Having to give contact details is an imposition - but far less of a problem than not being able to go to the pub for years on end.

 

[Fisherman80]

Apologies in advance if this has been discussed in previous threads, but how much difference would 1 metre distancing improve capacity on the present 2 metre rule?

 

[yorkie]

Apologies in advance if this has been discussed in previous threads, but how much difference would 1 metre distancing improve capacity on the present 2 metre rule?

Somewhere between approximately doubling and theoretically approaching quadrupling of capacity, depending on venue constraints.

 

[Bletchleyite]

IDs are not compulsory in this country. So if the government insisted that pubs, restaurants etc enforce a ruling that ID must be presented, how would that stand up legally? Individual pubs & clubs might have their own policies, and the law does allow them to enforce checks on potentially under-age drinkers, but given that we do not have a compulsory ID system I fail to see how this could be enforced.

It can be introduced as a condition of entry to a business which does not have to allow entry to anyone. As licensing already can insist on it at some venues I don't see why that couldn't be extended to all venues.

 

[Bantamzen]

It can be introduced as a condition of entry to a business which does not have to allow entry to anyone. As licensing already can insist on it at some venues I don't see why that couldn't be extended to all venues.

Because there is no compulsory ID scheme in the UK?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Because there is no compulsory ID scheme in the UK?

There effectively is if you are aged under about 30 (or are privileged to look younger than your years) and want to drink alcohol.

 

[Bantamzen]

There effectively is if you are aged under about 30 (or are privileged to look younger than your years) and want to drink alcohol.

That's not a compulsory scheme for the population, and most people aged a bit more than 18 will rarely, if ever be challenged.

 

[47519]

I don’t know whether this has been covered earlier, but National Express are restarting their coach services from 1st July (and ahead of the further lockdown relaxations expected on 4th July)

https://www.nationalexpress.com/en/help/coronavirus-safety

The diagrams imply that they will restrict seating to all window seats. This may comply with two metre distancing to the left or right, but I doubt there would be a one metre separation fore and aft, let alone two. Perhaps this is the maximum that will be allowed, and they will initially restrict ticket sales and tape-off further sets of seats - or perhaps they know something that we don't!

 

[CaptainHaddock]

I wouldn't assume that. It would very much appear that both cases and deaths in the UK have pretty much levelled off[1], so unless we can stomach another lockdown we are going to see the same numbers for months if not years, unless there's a vaccine, effective treatment or the virus mutates in some way to be less harmful as it might well do (they often do).

This also means that we won't be loosening on 4th July in my view, or indeed at any point until a vaccine or effective treatment. Which is a bit annoying, but we cannot allow exponential growth to return unless we are going to accept a large number of deaths and go for herd immunity. We might be able to allow stays away from home again as hotels etc can be made as safe as a block of flats, and campsites probably better if you give each pitch its own polybog, but I don't see how we can reopen pubs or reduce distancing.

[1] https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I know you're desperate to keep the lockdown going as long as possible but, far from levelling off, the number of deaths continues to fall rapidly.



(graph shows a fall in daily deaths from over 1,000 in mid April to just 43 on Sunday 20 June).


Your claim that the risk at 2m is 10 to 15 times lower than at 1 metre is also not true; it just halves the risk from 2.6% to 1.3%.

 

[Huntergreed]

Whilst it is true that the number of deaths is still falling, what seems to have happened with the number of new confirmed cases is that it has started to level off:


This suggests that the 'R' value is very close to one with the current set of restrictions, and easing it significantly further may push it above 1.

However, we do have to remember that this may come from the bank holiday weekend, BLM protests, and a general fall in the % of the public complying fully with the rules (at least in my own observations).

However I would also argue that we cannot keep these industries closed indefinitely. We need to take more effort to respect personal space and hygiene and to protect the vulnerable, however the economic damage that would be caused by not reopening these places on July 4th is very significant indeed and must also be considered.

We need to start thinking of the wider picture and not just 'the big bad virus', cases have indeed levelled but we are well beyond the point where we are able to eliminate this virus. That means, sooner or later, we must reach herd immunity in order to exit the pandemic, and without a vaccine, quite literally the only way to do this is by allowing the virus to spread to some degree through the population. By protecting those most vulnerable from it, this should prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed, as people expected would happen (but it didn't) before. We quite frankly can't keep society running as it is right now as it isn't financially viable and we also cannot afford another lockdown if cases and deaths spike again, as this would simply result in economic collapse, which has a far worse outcome than letting the virus spread.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don’t know whether this has been covered earlier, but National Express are restarting their coach services from 1st July (and ahead of the further lockdown relaxations expected on 4th July)

https://www.nationalexpress.com/en/help/coronavirus-safety

The diagrams imply that they will restrict seating to all window seats. This may comply with two metre distancing to the left or right, but I doubt there would be a one metre separation fore and aft, let alone two. Perhaps this is the maximum that will be allowed, and they will initially restrict ticket sales and tape-off further sets of seats - or perhaps they know something that we don't!

A guaranteed double seat would make coach travel quite attractive to me, to be honest! My main dislike of it stems from the seats being a bit narrow and thus sitting pushed up against someone is quite uncomfortable - a bit like 3+2 on the train!

 

[Bantamzen]

Whilst it is true that the number of deaths is still falling, what seems to have happened with the number of new confirmed cases is that it has started to level off:

View attachment 79836
This suggests that the 'R' value is very close to one with the current set of restrictions, and easing it significantly further may push it above 1.

However, we do have to remember that this may come from the bank holiday weekend, BLM protests, and a general fall in the % of the public complying fully with the rules (at least in my own observations).

However I would also argue that we cannot keep these industries closed indefinitely. We need to take more effort to respect personal space and hygiene and to protect the vulnerable, however the economic damage that would be caused by not reopening these places on July 4th is very significant indeed and must also be considered.

We need to start thinking of the wider picture and not just 'the big bad virus', cases have indeed levelled but we are well beyond the point where we are able to eliminate this virus. That means, sooner or later, we must reach herd immunity in order to exit the pandemic, and without a vaccine, quite literally the only way to do this is by allowing the virus to spread to some degree through the population. By protecting those most vulnerable from it, this should prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed, as people expected would happen (but it didn't) before. We quite frankly can't keep society running as it is right now as it isn't financially viable and we also cannot afford another lockdown if cases and deaths spike again, as this would simply result in economic collapse, which has a far worse outcome than letting the virus spread.

When you inspect the actual data you can see that the bank holidays did not have any effect, even after 3 weeks. This levelling off could be more to do with the start of the track & trace programme, or it may just be a blip in the trend. But the reality is that the lockdown was never about getting close to zero cases, but about NHS capacity, of which there is an adequate amount according to the Health Minister's daily slides & data.

 

[route101]

A guaranteed double seat would make coach travel quite attractive to me, to be honest! My main dislike of it stems from the seats being a bit narrow and thus sitting pushed up against someone is quite uncomfortable - a bit like 3+2 on the train!

Yes , id be happy to pay a bit more for a double seat. What puts me off long distance coach, is lack of space.

 

[Bikeman78]

There must be ways to enable some level of indoor hospitality whilst mitigating against a runaway wave of infections.

We can't have the hospitality industry shut down for years on end.

You must frequent a differnt sort of establishment than me, because the pubs I go to people aren't all going around hugging eachother every five minutes.

If I'm honest I've hardly been to the pub since the children were born. When I did go, I tended to aim for the quieter places. As you say, it didn't matter how drunk I was, I never bashed in to strangers. That said, Cardiff has a lot of students. Bars and clubs get very crowded on Friday and Saturday nights.

The things I miss most are eating out with friends or family and going on train rides. The former might be possible again soon. The latter sounds like it might be a tedious concoction of one way systems and never ending auto announcements for some time to come. I hoped that face maks would bring an end to that but seemingly not.

 

[yorksrob]

If I'm honest I've hardly been to the pub since the children were born. When I did go, I tended to aim for the quieter places. As you say, it didn't matter how drunk I was, I never bashed in to strangers. That said, Cardiff has a lot of students. Bars and clubs get very crowded on Friday and Saturday nights.

The things I miss most are eating out with friends or family and going on train rides. The former might be possible again soon. The latter sounds like it might be a tedious concoction of one way systems and never ending auto announcements for some time to come. I hoped that face maks would bring an end to that but seemingly not.

To be honest, I have used the train a few times in the past few weeks and it's not bad at all. I've got used to the face covering, and it's really only Leeds I've used that has a big one way system. Probably the biggest issue I have is with some of the emergency timetables on some routes, which are quite restrictive.

 

[PHILIPE]

We have the results of the effect available now as so many people have just been ignoring the 2m anyway

 

[AM9]

We have the results of the effect available now as so many people have just been ignoring the 2m anyway

The problem there is that the majority who have been obeying the rules at least have some safety when approached by somebody ignoring the rules (no point in starting the argument about how much difference in tranmission it makes again). If the priniciple of 'let's just change the law because some are ignoring it anyway' is used, then those who are concerned about their safety (maybe because they are vulnerable) would have no protection if others just invaded their space.