Levenmouth rail link to reopen: project updates

[snowball]

Saw the NR media release for this today

And here it is:

Levenmouth Rail Link project gets underway

Levenmouth moves a step closer to the reintroduction of passenger services for the first time in more than fifty years, bringing with it exciting new journey opportunities and economic benefits for the area.

www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk

Levenmouth moves a step closer to the reintroduction of passenger services for the first time in more than fifty years, bringing with it exciting new journey opportunities and economic benefits for the area.

Following the green light from Transport Scotland for the £116.6m scheme, Network Rail has started construction of the Levenmouth Rail Link. The work includes the removal of the old track bed and other route preparation activities in advance of the re-instatement of a double track railway and passenger services to Leven.

By utilising much of the existing double track bed it allows a cost-effective delivery of capacity for passenger, charter and freight service growth and a step-change in new journey opportunities across the wider economic area to places of education, work and leisure.

The first services to run on the line will be diesel operated before conversion to electric operation at the earliest opportunity. Electrification now, as part of the Scottish Government’s decarbonisation action plan, will enable the earliest possible transition to electric services minimising future passenger disruption and ensuring work is delivered at the most efficient cost.

Two new fully accessible stations will be constructed at Cameron Bridge and Leven, both benefiting from active travel access infrastructure linking local communities and places.

The programme will also explore the potential opportunities for freight and tourist/charter train operations to maximise the value this transformational investment can bring to the Levenmouth area.

More at the link, including a video.

 

[Wynd]

Any thoughts on the massive cost uplift?

Also, for clarity, I absolutely support this and would do so even if it cost more, but I would really like to understand how costs have moved so quickly.

 

[mcmad]

If I was to pluck a figure out of the air then I'd say that I bet that it'll have cost £120m by the time they're done in eight years time. Eight years is plucked out of the air as well, but knowing how these things go...

Great news for regeneration of the area though.

47271 was too pesimistic on the timeframe although I think I read elsewhere that its looking likely to slip into 2024 but bang on the money costwise. I believe the £70/75m figure wasn't a Network Rail figure but one TS produced from somewhere.

Any thoughts on the massive cost uplift?

Also, for clarity, I absolutely support this and would do so even if it cost more, but I would really like to understand how costs have moved so quickly.

"Since this project was announced in 2019 the scope has now expanded to include further investment in electrification and active travel routes and opportunities in freight and tourist / charter connections." would appear to be the official excuse at the moment, its in the note to editors at the bottom.

 

[najaB]

Saw the NR media release for this today, £116m?! I thought it was £75m? how has it gone up 55%?

Some of that will be increase in scope, some will be adding additional work that's not strictly necessary onto the project (always useful to get some renewals paid for out of the capital works budget), some will be the fact that they've fully cleared the line so have a better idea of what work will be needed and there's always contingency. Far better to say it's going to cost £116m and have it come in at £102 than if you said it was going to cost £75m.

 

[lachlan]

The bit I find interesting is "The first services to run on the line will be diesel operated before conversion to electric operation at the earliest opportunity. Electrification now, as part of the Scottish Government’s decarbonisation action plan, will enable the earliest possible transition to electric services minimising future passenger disruption and ensuring work is delivered at the most efficient cost." ... does "electrification now" mean wires will be put up during construction? I really am hoping so as it'll avoid closures in the future for electrification.

 

[XAM2175]

There's been a lot of inflation in construction costs throughout all industries just in the last year or two, as well.

 

[najaB]

does "electrification now" mean wires will be put up during construction?

As I understand it, yes. Wires at least as far as Glenrothes and Thornton.

 

[Wynd]

Makes sense to put the wires up now whilst all the kit is onsite.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Oh not sure the comment from the media release

By utilising much of the existing double track bed it allows a cost-effective delivery of capacity for passenger,

equates to it costing £116m however if it now includes OLE from Haymarket West Jcn then more acceptable.

 

[Bald Rick]

Any thoughts on the massive cost uplift?

Also, for clarity, I absolutely support this and would do so even if it cost more, but I would really like to understand how costs have moved so quickly.

see posts #8 and #53 in this thread from nearly 3 years ago….

its £25m/mile for a simple railway that was recently mothballed, and didn’t need much ground work / Civils as a result. Everyone needs to remember this when talking about building new railways, even when on the line of old railways.

AIUI about half the increase is inflation, as the £78m previously quoted by the promoters was in 2010 prices.

i hope they have already bought their steel, copper and sleepers, as they won’t be getting any cheaper.

 

[snowball]

Oh not sure the comment from the media release


equates to it costing £116m however if it now includes OLE from Haymarket West Jcn then more acceptable.

I think the current plans for wiring from Haymarket only extend to Dalmeny.

Do we know whether the £116M includes this, or is it a separately funded project?

 

[Wynd]

see posts #8 and #53 in this thread from nearly 3 years ago….

its £25m/mile for a simple railway that was recently mothballed, and didn’t need much ground work / Civils as a result. Everyone needs to remember this when talking about building new railways, even when on the line of old railways.

AIUI about half the increase is inflation, as the £78m previously quoted by the promoters was in 2010 prices.

i hope they have already bought their steel, copper and sleepers, as they won’t be getting any cheaper.

Thanks for this BR. Where can I see a breakdown on the £25m/mile? Il admit I'm having a really tough time understanding the composition of this figure.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

see posts #8 and #53 in this thread from nearly 3 years ago….

its £25m/mile for a simple railway that was recently mothballed, and didn’t need much ground work / Civils as a result. Everyone needs to remember this when talking about building new railways, even when on the line of old railways.

AIUI about half the increase is inflation, as the £78m previously quoted by the promoters was in 2010 prices.

i hope they have already bought their steel, copper and sleepers, as they won’t be getting any cheaper.

At least Copper and Steel commodity prices are only up 10% since the start of Ukraine hostilities unlike oil up 35% or UK gas up a staggering 250% and up 30% today already - much of it speculation of course but an elevated increase in energy now all but inevitable is going to cause havoc with civil construction costs due to higher energy input in creating materials like cement and steel.

£25m/mile seems toppy to me given its a greenfield environment. New track under possession working is c£2m/mile so £4m/mile double track add in another £2m/mile for drainage and fencing and then i presume they will spec a decent formation so another £2m/mile to create the trace. So PWay £8m/mile and really ought to be more economic on a greenfield site but NR has a habit of keeping the same rules of engagement. Shouldn't need too many SEU's per mile for the headway on this route and very few bridges for the OLE to contend with so I would say £25m/mile for two track is a lot and industry needs to be challenged to lower the cost. Of course what will need to be added is probably a new interlocking for Thornton Jcn and no doubt rationalisation of the PWay as well as a new double jcn then there is S&C at Leven. All in all though £116m is steep if its just for the branch and means you can afford about one new opening every 5 years at this cost.

 

[najaB]

All in all though £116m is steep if its just for the branch and means you can afford about one new opening every 5 years at this cost.

I suspect that at least some of Haymarket to Dalmaney electrification is included in that figure, given that they mention partial electrification is an outcome of this project, and I believe it's been mentioned that preparatory work has already started on that.

 

[gingertom]

I suspect that at least some of Haymarket to Dalmaney electrification is included in that figure, given that they mention partial electrification is an outcome of this project, and I believe it's been mentioned that preparatory work has already started on that.

there will also be the cost of the grid connection, plus the switchgear etc. It all adds up.

 

[The exile]

there will also be the cost of the grid connection, plus the switchgear etc. It all adds up.

All divided by the “spurious” length of the branch, rather than the full length of track it will feed, presumably

 

[gingertom]

All divided by the “spurious” length of the branch, rather than the full length of track it will feed, presumably

a feeder at Thornton will do for most of Fife. For resilience though additional feeders will be needed eventually. Hilton Jn? Wormit? Inverkeithing?

Anybody on here know where the feeder stations are planned?

 

[59CosG95]

a feeder at Thornton will do for most of Fife. For resilience though additional feeders will be needed eventually. Hilton Jn? Wormit? Inverkeithing?

Anybody on here know where the feeder stations are planned?

Well, to start, Greenhill FS is fed from Bonnybridge (which I believe is 132kV). I believe there's a 275kV grid feeder at Glenrothes (based on Google Maps, it's a little NW of the A92/A921/B9130 roundabout) and that could easily be exploited to serve Fife.
The 275kV substation at Currie is due to supply the Haymarket-Carstairs & Shotts Lines soon too (AFAIK).
Hilton Jn, while not near any existing substation AFAIK, is near a point where powerlines cross, so would also be ideal.

 

[Bald Rick]

Thanks for this BR. Where can I see a breakdown on the £25m/mile? Il admit I'm having a really tough time understanding the composition of this figure.

that will be very sensitive information, commercially confidential. Unlikely it will be anywhere in the public domain.

At least Copper and Steel commodity prices are only up 10% since the start of Ukraine hostilities unlike oil up 35% or UK gas up a staggering 250% and up 30% today already - much of it speculation of course but an elevated increase in energy now all but inevitable is going to cause havoc with civil construction costs due to higher energy input in creating materials like cement and steel.

£25m/mile seems toppy to me given its a greenfield environment. New track under possession working is c£2m/mile so £4m/mile double track add in another £2m/mile for drainage and fencing and then i presume they will spec a decent formation so another £2m/mile to create the trace. So PWay £8m/mile and really ought to be more economic on a greenfield site but NR has a habit of keeping the same rules of engagement. Shouldn't need too many SEU's per mile for the headway on this route and very few bridges for the OLE to contend with so I would say £25m/mile for two track is a lot and industry needs to be challenged to lower the cost. Of course what will need to be added is probably a new interlocking for Thornton Jcn and no doubt rationalisation of the PWay as well as a new double jcn then there is S&C at Leven. All in all though £116m is steep if its just for the branch and means you can afford about one new opening every 5 years at this cost.

don’t forget the new station. I think your formation estimate is likely to be optimistic; nearly all of the line is right alongside the river and I’d be surprised if what’s underneath is stable. Then there’s the devegetation - that could easily be a few million for the line.

 

[najaB]

also, I’m not sure if *any* electrification is in this cost.

Interesting, if so. The price rise is quite hard to stomach if there isn't any included - the press release quotes above gave the impression that, at the very least, the branch would be wired.

 

[Bald Rick]

Interesting, if so. The price rise is quite hard to stomach if there isn't any included - the press release quotes above gave the impression that, at the very least, the branch would be wired.

having reread it, I think you’re right. Post amended!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Well, to start, Greenhill FS is fed from Bonnybridge (which I believe is 132kV). I believe there's a 275kV grid feeder at Glenrothes (based on Google Maps, it's a little NW of the A92/A921/B9130 roundabout) and that could easily be exploited to serve Fife.
The 275kV substation at Currie is due to supply the Haymarket-Carstairs & Shotts Lines soon too (AFAIK).
Hilton Jn, while not near any existing substation AFAIK, is near a point where powerlines cross, so would also be ideal.

There is a 132kv s/stn right beside Inverkeithing East Jcn but would have to a SFC connection. The 275kV system crosses the Fife circle between Cardenden and Lochgelly

 

[Wynd]

that will be very sensitive information, commercially confidential. Unlikely it will be anywhere in the public domain.




don’t forget the new station. I think your formation estimate is likely to be optimistic; nearly all of the line is right alongside the river and I’d be surprised if what’s underneath is stable. Then there’s the devegetation - that could easily be a few million for the line.

Would I be right in thinking that contractors bod for various stages of work? As in NR have a tendering process?

These are huge sums of money for what is a well understood technology.

As a % of total cost, raw material, rail, cable, ballast etc must a fraction of that £25m/mile number, which at first glance, is difficult to understand. Id like to understand why, or how that is.

 

[The exile]

Would I be right in thinking that contractors bod for various stages of work? As in NR have a tendering process?

These are huge sums of money for what is a well understood technology.

As a % of total cost, raw material, rail, cable, ballast etc must a fraction of that £25m/mile number, which at first glance, is difficult to understand. Id like to understand why, or how that is.

One would hope that after various PR disasters in the past there's an element of "underpromising" with the hope of overdelivering (ie - project has come in a £x under budget) in this - allowing for worst case scenarios.

 

[InOban]

Story have what is called a Framework contract for civil in Scotland, but I don't know whether it extends to electrification work.
I understand that last weekend, while the Fife line was closed for other work, the junction for the line was reinstated so that engineering trains can access the route and stable clear of the main lines.

 

[WesternS]

Would I be right in thinking that contractors bod for various stages of work? As in NR have a tendering process?

These are huge sums of money for what is a well understood technology.

As a % of total cost, raw material, rail, cable, ballast etc must a fraction of that £25m/mile number, which at first glance, is difficult to understand. Id like to understand why, or how that is.

Would be interested in knowing what you think it should cost. And where you think the majority of the costs should fall.

From here: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmtrans/63/6306.htm (from 2016-17)
"To take an example, the M25 J27–30 motorway widening scheme cost £272.4 million in 2002 figures (the figures used in the 2014 post-project evaluation). This is roughly £16.2 million per mile. [WesternS Note: this project added one lane in each direction to the M25 - not the active lane running type now in 'smart' motorways]. In 2008, in the same written answer that gave the cost of the M42 Active Traffic Management pilot at £9.0 million per mile, the estimated cost of one mile of standard 3-lane motorway with a hard shoulder was said to be between £21.4 million and £35.0 million." And that is from a 2016-17 written reply by DfT.....

There's a fascinating, albeit ancient (2007-2010) discussion on SABRE about how a modern D3M is a very different beast to even the late 1980's M40 extension. I would think that on the SABRE boards there are those who believe that building a D3M is a fairly well-known technology too....

 

[Wynd]

I dont have an idea of what it should cost. I am trying to understand how the current costs are constituted.

 

[WesternS]

I dont have an idea of what it should cost. I am trying to understand how the current costs are constituted.

To be completely frank with you I sincerely doubt you will get a more courteous answer to your question than that from Bald Rick in post #199.

I'll let you into a secret though - most people seeking to understand a company's finances take a look at the Report & Accounts. You'll note from any of the major contractors that the reported profit margins are around 1% - 3%. Site margins are higher - depending on the job and how they price and deal with the risks. Go and find a friendly contractor and you might get an answer.....

However, if I was wanting to make lots and lots of money, being a contractor on the railways or highways is not where I'd start. The progressive reduction in the number of UK-based/owned contractors over the past 30 years, the growth of larger international (EU) ones in the UK (Vinci, Strabag, Eiffage, Hochtief, Skanska, the various Spanish ones etc), and the increasing number of JVs tells you that it's not a business for the faint-hearted and/or the poorly-financed. And that's before the costs of bidding and not winnning.......

And it's always been like that - R.S. Joby's book 'The Railway Builders: Lives And Works Of The Victorian Railway Contractors' (£4.95 on AbeBooks) tells you how the greats like Brassey, Locke and Dargan regularly suffered the same sort of vicissitudes as Carillion, 2000's Costain etc - and often ended up owning and operating the lines they built (and sometimes financed) in order to get their money back - DBFO isn't a 1990's/2000 Major/Blairite invention. The story of how the London & Birmingham was almost entirely built via sub-contractors shows that the great names e.g. the Stephensons were as much contract managers as designers.

The owner/financing entity, whether the Grand Junction, Great Western or Network Rail, have always been savvier clients that a lot of people on this board often take them to be. "Would I be right in thinking that contractors bid for various stages of work? As in NR have a tendering process?" Um, they sure do - and you only have to read the civil engineers blog of the Gloucestershire & Warwickshire Steam Railway Co. to see what happens when you (a) try to screw the civils contractor, (b) don't have sufficiently rigorous site supervision and (c) the effect of time and general weathering (http://bridgestobroadway.blogspot.com/).

And the golden rule is that risk has to be paid for by someone, whether client, contractor or down the supply chain. The only difference with it being a 'known technology' is that in some aspects the risks might be better known. Some of the recent posts in this thread allude to various risks. And that's before anyone mentions no as-builts from 50 years back, no records of mining more than 120 years old, limited ground condition surveys etc etc...

There are lots of posts on the HS2 thread on the subject of cost since, after all, one of the main contentious areas around that project is costs. Start at the beginning of that thread (or the Crossrail, the Manchester-Blackpool electrification or Great Western electrification ones) and I'd be confident you'll get a better idea of how to get your head around how rail (and general construction) costs are constituted. And what happens to cost when you want (a) a 60 year design life and (b) the vast majority of risks of failure of the construction over that entire period are passed to the contractor (cf Hinkley Point C).

 

[Bald Rick]

Would I be right in thinking that contractors bod for various stages of work? As in NR have a tendering process?

yes, absolutely. For some types of work a “framework” contract is let, based on competition for unit rates, overheads and profit; the framework contractor is then remitted work against an agreed price list of work elements. so in this case, it might be the case that the Scotland Track framework contractor is doing the track, the Scotland signalling framework contractor is doing the signalling, etc, this requires a Programme Management team working for NR to coordinate it all, through a “hub and spoke” model.

alternatively, the whole lot might be tendered as a multidisciplinary job, and the contractor has to do the coordination. This is usually more expensive, as the contractor prices in lots of risk.

These are huge sums of money for what is a well understood technology.

indeed. That’s what railways cost, as I believe I mentioned to you in another thread…

Bear in mind these are current costs. The costs for new railways in future will be more because of inflation.

I think this does at last slay the idea that “The Borders railway cost £10m / mile, therefore other new railways will do too”

As a % of total cost, raw material, rail, cable, ballast etc must a fraction of that £25m/mile number, which at first glance, is difficult to understand. Id like to understand why, or how that is.

well, someone professional has to design it (with a go to jail card if they get it wrong), and then professionals need to install it. And someone has to check it, test it and commission it. Fir a domestic comparison, When I rebuilt my house I reckon the materials cost was about £50k, but it cost me a third of a million.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

yes, absolutely. For some types of work a “framework” contract is let, based on competition for unit rates, overheads and profit; the framework contractor is then remitted work against an agreed price list of work elements. so in this case, it might be the case that the Scotland Track framework contractor is doing the track, the Scotland signalling framework contractor is doing the signalling, etc, this requires a Programme Management team working for NR to coordinate it all, through a “hub and spoke” model.

alternatively, the whole lot might be tendered as a multidisciplinary job, and the contractor has to do the coordination. This is usually more expensive, as the contractor prices in lots of risk.

My experience was the Framework contracts don't give best value for money for greenfield jobs as generally they are orientated towards working on operational infrastructure which has a lot of overheads compared to this job which should be executed as a "high street" environment. However, if those who drafted the tender were told to include a suite of rates that covered rebuilding an old line then would be suitable.