Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[Yew]

Indeed, It feels like there is no accounting for the measurement effects of mass testing in a specific area. It's almost like there's nobody in Sage with a background in statistics.

 

[greyman42]

West Yorkshire in Tier 3 but North Yorkshire in Tier 2...plenty of overpriced Leeds to York rail tickets being sold this christmas then!

What will York have to offer that Leeds does not apart from some pubs being open for what will probably be overpriced meals?

 

[Pete_uk]

I'm in tier 2.


I have no idea what that means and dont care either!

 

[greyman42]

I'm in tier 2.


I have no idea what that means and dont care either!

It means nowt good. It is barely better than 3.

 

[Envy123]

I'm in tier 2.


I have no idea what that means and dont care either!

My home and workplace are both in Tier 2.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

What will York have to offer that Leeds does not apart from some pubs being open for what will probably be overpriced meals?

There are some excellent pubs serving good value meals in York if you venture off the tourist trail. The same applies to towns like Skipton and Harrogate, which are also in tier 2.

I work in Leeds and already my colleagues and I are trying to find a way of having a Christmas meal and a few beers in York.

 

[Freightmaster]

At least two pubs I know of insist you purchase meals at the same time as your first drink - so sadly you cannot order a pint and sit there scouting the menu. I suspect a few characters have gone into pubs - ordered drinks pretending they are going to get food off the menu and then left without the intention of buying food in the first place.

So what??

As long as the pub in question didn't knowingly allow/encourage such people to order drinks without food, why should they care?


While I obviously don't want see see pubs closing and their staff out of work, they are not doing themselves any favours
in the long run with this nit picking, unwelcoming, overly virtuous 'jobsworth' attitude...

...whatever happened to "the customer is always right" school of thought?



MARK

 

[Darandio]

...whatever happened to "the customer is always right" school of thought?

It's a fallacy and always has been.

 

[greyman42]

Would there be anything to stop you ordering a meal and then spending the rest of the day in the pub drinking?

There are some excellent pubs serving good value meals in York if you venture off the tourist trail. The same applies to towns like Skipton and Harrogate, which are also in tier 2.

I work in Leeds and already my colleagues and I are trying to find a way of having a Christmas meal and a few beers in York.

That is true enough as i live in York. How will you be for travelling as i have not seen if there are any travel restrictions? I thought they might have got a mention on the forum.

 

[brad465]

There appears to be numerous opposition to the tier plans from MPs, which unsurprisingly includes all of the CRG, and there are also some Labour MPs voicing concerns, while they have said their voting intention depends on consulting Government covid experts (so probably something stricter knowing them):

Coronavirus: Tory revolt brewing over 'appalling' tiers plan

Some backbench MPs say the new restrictions could lead to "utter devastation" for local economies.

www.bbc.co.uk

A number of Conservative MPs have lashed out at the introduction of new tiered Covid restrictions in England.

The government confirmed on Thursday the majority of the country would be placed in the two toughest levels when national lockdown ends on 2 December.

But the Covid Recovery Group, made up of Tory backbenchers, described the move as "authoritarianism at work".

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the move was "necessary to protect the NHS and keep the virus under control".

The government has promised to publish an impact assessment early next week before MPs get a chance to vote on the new rules on Tuesday.

But a revolt is brewing among the government's own MPs, including the chair of the influential 1922 committee of backbenchers, Sir Graham Brady.

The MP for Altrincham and Sale West, which is in tier three, told the BBC the restrictions "interfered in people's private and personal lives in a way which is unacceptable".

Boris Johnson has an 80-strong majority in the Commons, but if 40 of his own MPs vote down the move, he will have to rely on support from Labour to get it through.

Labour is expected to decide early next week whether to back the plans after consultation with government coronavirus experts.

Senior Tory Sir Graham Brady has said he will vote against the plans next week

The latest plan will see over 57% of England's population - more than 32 million people - living under tier two restrictions from Wednesday.

A further 41% - more than 23 million people - will be placed in tier three, while just over 1% will enter tier one.

BBC analysis suggests the toughest tier has more Labour constituencies - 96 - than Conservative ones, while the majority of Tory seats - 205 - will be in tier two.

The prime minister told a Downing Street press conference there was "reason to hope" that the "era of restrictions" could end in the spring, but the tiers were needed to "navigate a hard winter when the burden on our NHS is heaviest."

England's chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, told the same briefing the government was trying to ensure the measures to control the virus were the "least damaging" possible - only enforcing the harshest restrictions "where rates are high or rising".

Boris Johnson defended the new measures at a Downing Street press conference

The deputy chair of the newly-formed Covid Recovery Group (CRG), Tory MP Steve Baker, called the announcement "truly appalling" and questioned if it was "necessary and proportionate" to the threat from coronavirus.

He criticised the modelling used by government scientists, saying their conclusions were "wrong time and time again", and called for an end to "narrow monopoly expert advice".

He added that he was "open to supporting measures" but only if it can be "clearly demonstrated that the government intervention will save more lives than it costs".

Mr Baker's CRG colleague, Harriet Baldwin, said there was "is no logic whatsoever in having a month of lockdown only for people to have to live under an even more severe set of restrictions afterwards".

My prediction is this will pass, however there'll be greater opposition than there was to the lockdown, which will at the very least show increasing criticism of the current strategy in Parliament.

Testing is a vital part of test, track, trace etc. Helps understand how the virus spreads of course. If rates aren't going down despite this, that to me suggests a lack of social distancing although Bradford does have a particularly high number of inter-generational households.



Medway & Sheppey seems to have shot up during lockdown, one of the only areas in the country to dramatically do so. Perhaps that's due to low compliance with Lockdown 2.0 or some other reasons.

Kent was in Tier 1 right up to lockdown, so behaviour would have been in line with that, potentially encouraging infections, but those are only filtering through now given the lag time.

Also Swale/Sheppey is a deprived area, which likely correlates with low compliance on self-isolation as it would be unaffordable.

 

[delt1c]

All visitors to Malta now must have a covid test undertaken in the last 72 hours. What does that tell you how other countries are viewing UK ?

 

[Ianno87]

So what??

As long as the pub in question didn't knowingly allow/encourage such people to order drinks without food, why should they care?


While I obviously don't want see see pubs closing and their staff out of work, they are not doing themselves any favours
in the long run with this nit picking, unwelcoming, overly virtuous 'jobsworth' attitude...

...whatever happened to "the customer is always right" school of thought?



MARK

"Can I order a drink now and I'll think about food later"
"Yes, OK"

That conversation is quite obviously knowingly selling somebody a drink without food.

 

[Trackman]

Would there be anything to stop you ordering a meal and then spending the rest of the day in the pub drinking?

Well some pub chains have time limits only because they have other bookings, but there is nothing about a time limit in the rules.
Also what is to stop you buying the cheapest 'substantial' meal and not actually eating it?

Just been reading an article about when Lockdown 2.0 ends next week.
Do they think people are daft? Lockdown 2.0 ends?
I becoming fed up with the whole situation and to be honest gawd knows why there hasn't been any civil unrest yet. In my experience where I am now, people are not giving a stuff about the rules.

 

[Ianno87]

Well some pub chains have time limits only because they have other bookings, but there is nothing about a time limit in the rules.
Also what is to stop you buying the cheapest 'substantial' meal and not actually eating it?

Just been reading an article about when Lockdown 2.0 ends next week.
Do they think people are daft? Lockdown 2.0 ends?
I becoming fed up with the whole situation and to be honest gawd knows why there hasn't been any civil unrest yet. In my experience where I am now, people are not giving a stuff about the rules.

Civil unrest simply risks imposition of even harsher rules - and punishments.

 

[DB]

Civil unrest simply risks imposition of even harsher rules - and punishments.

But it could also risk toppling the government if they lose the support of the bulk of the population - and they know it too, hence this pretence that the lockdown is ending when in reality it's clearly not.

 

[peters]

I'm in tier 2.


I have no idea what that means and dont care either!

It means you get arrested and sentenced to corporal punishment for drinking alcohol, having sex in public or sleeping with someone who you aren't married to, no way that's Dubai under normal circumstances.

 

[bramling]

Civil unrest simply risks imposition of even harsher rules - and punishments.

Why bother with civil unrest when in terms of lifestyle pretty much everything is unenforced, so people simply don’t have to abide by things if they don’t want to. Even masks are quite possible to avoid if one chooses - for example I will grudgingly wear them in shops simply to keep the peace for staff, but I won’t do so on trains.

There could be some pushback over the impacts on jobs and wages though. If you’re for example a pub worker in a tier 3 area you’ll already have been on 80% for nearly five months of this year, and now face the prospect of this going forward and quite likely being the case for elements of next year too, and on top of that this also means 5+ months of no overtime, tips, et cetera, and perhaps add to that an element of worry about what the future may now hold.

By contrast if you’re some London office worker living in a nice home-counties semi in tier 2 then the longer this goes on for the better, from next week it will even be possible to do niceties like eating out and going to the gym again, so not much negative against the positive of not having to commute to work every day.

I do think brown stuff would hit the fan next year is they manage to come up with something unpopular in the tax department. Something nasty on inheritance tax rules for example. Having said all that, I think Manchester might well have led the way with civil unrest the way things were going a few weeks ago, it only got overtaken by events really.

But it could also risk toppling the government if they lose the support of the bulk of the population - and they know it too, hence this pretence that the lockdown is ending when in reality it's clearly not.

I don’t think the likes of BJ and Hancock care about that now, they know their careers end once the immediate crisis ends. This is really now about having gone so far down a particular strategy road and continuing to plough ahead along the same road, being too ignorant to admit they’ve taken a wrong turn.

Sunak is the one to watch, as he’s very clearly positioning to be the next PM, likewise backbenchers are clearly becoming increasingly agitated. I’ve made my thoughts quite clear to my MP, namely that I will note vote Conservative again under any circumstances whilst BJ is leader (not that I expect to be given that choice), and that the longer this continues the more difficult I would find it to even vote Conservative in the short and medium term.

I suspect the promise of vaccines is pacifying people a bit at the moment as well.

 

[Trackman]

I suspect the promise of vaccines is pacifying people a bit at the moment as well.

This is true.
A had a chat today on zoom and it ends on a bright note with 'Well, good news, the vaccine is on the way. We'll be OK for next Summer'
hmmm... we'll see and I'm not holding my breath.
As my mate used to say at NR, the light at the end of the tunnel is actually an oncoming train.

 

[bramling]

This is true.
A had a chat today on zoom and it ends on a bright note with 'Well, good news, the vaccine is on the way. We'll be OK for next Summer'
hmmm... we'll see and I'm not holding my breath.
As my mate used to say at NR, the light at the end of the tunnel is actually an oncoming train.

The way this has all gone so far I’d be inclined not to believe *anything* until it’s there in front of us. Especially after the number of false promises which have emanated from Boris.

A lot of people have been prepared to “write off” 2020. They may well be prepared to do the same during the first couple of winter months in 2021. Beyond that, no chance.

 

[island]

The fact that Liverpool and North Yorkshire are both in the medium tier suggests it's not a north vs south thing.

Liverpool and North Yorkshire are in the high tier (tier 2).

 

[C J Snarzell]

So what??

As long as the pub in question didn't knowingly allow/encourage such people to order drinks without food, why should they care?


While I obviously don't want see see pubs closing and their staff out of work, they are not doing themselves any favours
in the long run with this nit picking, unwelcoming, overly virtuous 'jobsworth' attitude...

...whatever happened to "the customer is always right" school of thought?



MARK

I think the 'jobsworths' are in fact the compliance staff from the local authority who can turn up and do checks at the pubs. I suspect the pub staff are probably doing everything they can to ensure compliance and cover their backs.

It's probably not ideal customer service but nor is standing outside in a queue in cold wet weather wearing a face mask because a shop or a bank can only allow X number of people in at anyone time.

None of the Covid restrictions are in place for anyone's convenience.

CJ

 

[ChrisC]

There has been lots in the news about how much pubs, bars and restaurants are suffering in both Tiers 2 and 3, but it’s hotels that I also really feel sorry for. The large chains like Premier Inn will survive but it’s the independent hotels, especially in Tier 3 areas that are being the hardest hit. They were able to open for a few months from July, but after spending lots of money to make them Covid secure, and working with much reduced staffing and often low guest numbers, they are now closed again with no date for reopening. Even those that are open in Tier 2 must be finding it very difficult to keep going when no one from Tier 3 areas can stay in them. Then there is the big loss of income from overseas guests.

I had to cancel four uk hotel stays during the first lockdown. I did manage to get 4 short stays in quiet country hotels between August and October. I felt so sorry for them operating with very few staff and only a fraction of the usual number of guests staying, yet they were trying so hard to comply with the regulations, and made me very welcome. Now that my county is in Tier 3 I am not able to go away to stay overnight in hotels again. I was planning to go away for 2 or 3 nights before Christmas but that’s now cancelled.

 

[High Dyke]

Would there be anything to stop you ordering a meal and then spending the rest of the day in the pub drinking?


That is true enough as i live in York. How will you be for travelling as i have not seen if there are any travel restrictions? I thought they might have got a mention on the forum.

Source: BBC News
Tier two (high) rules
People are advised not to travel to and from tier three areas

Information applies to England.

 

[duncanp]

People are advised not to travel to and from tier three areas

This is only advice - it is not the law and no fixed penalty notices can be issued if someone does travel from a Tier 3 area to somewhere in a lower tier.

Making "guidance" sound like it is the law is a recurring them throughout the COVID-19 crisis, and it has been used by all governments in the UK to coerce people into taking action that they would rather not do.

Before today's announcement, I booked a ticket to see Pantoland At The Palladium on 19th December, and I booked a hotel to stay overnight in London before travelling back home to Birmingham the next day.

I still intend to do this journey, whatever the government says, and if they don't want me to go they can refund me the money I have paid.

 

[trainophile]

I have just booked a couple of nights for two weeks time in York (Tier 2), travelling by train from Southport (Tier 2), and as my main home is in Herefordshire (Tier 2) I hope I'm safe enough. As for supporting local hotels, the cheapest reasonable one I could find (i.e. walking distance from the station and with an ensuite bathroom), bar one guest house that was £+50%, was double what I got a city centre Travelodge room for, so I'm afraid it was no contest. I know they have to try to recoup what they lost during the summer but most people are budget conscious these days.

 

[DelayRepay]

I am sat here tonight in absolute despair.

My area is now in Tier 2. I am missing my friends, missing my family, but apart from a walk in the park (in December!), I can only see them if we decide to break the law.

I know some will suggest breaking the law, and I know I probably won't get caught or could blag it by claiming a support bubble, but I cannot believe it has come to this. I live on my own, my family and close friends are too far away to form a support bubble with. I have local friends but they're not particularly close and they have their own lives/families to worry about. I've been forced to work from home since March, so I don't see my colleagues. The only in person conversations I've had this week have been with the postman and a delivery man. That's if 'morning, parcel for you, bit cold today isn't it?' even qualifies as as a conversation.

I despair that it's come to this, that the government have made a law saying I can't see my mum for a cuppa and a chat and I can't meet my best friend for a pint.

 

[bramling]

There has been lots in the news about how much pubs, bars and restaurants are suffering in both Tiers 2 and 3, but it’s hotels that I also really feel sorry for. The large chains like Premier Inn will survive but it’s the independent hotels, especially in Tier 3 areas that are being the hardest hit. They were able to open for a few months from July, but after spending lots of money to make them Covid secure, and working with much reduced staffing and often low guest numbers, they are now closed again with no date for reopening. Even those that are open in Tier 2 must be finding it very difficult to keep going when no one from Tier 3 areas can stay in them. Then there is the big loss of income from overseas guests.

I had to cancel four uk hotel stays during the first lockdown. I did manage to get 4 short stays in quiet country hotels between August and October. I felt so sorry for them operating with very few staff and only a fraction of the usual number of guests staying, yet they were trying so hard to comply with the regulations, and made me very welcome. Now that my county is in Tier 3 I am not able to go away to stay overnight in hotels again. I was planning to go away for 2 or 3 nights before Christmas but that’s now cancelled.

Yes very much so. We cancelled three U.K. hotels this spring / summer. One of these was cancelled for us with an email apologising that the hotel had in fact gone out of business (by the looks of it the place was already struggling slightly, but Covid was clearly the final straw).

We did manage a week and a half in West Wales during late September and early October. This was a bit strange as initially we struggled to get availability - everywhere was literally fully booked, to the extent we ended up with the first two nights in a particularly grim Travelodge. Yet by the time we made it to the place we actually wanted to be, numbers fizzled our during the course of our stay, such that on one night I think we were the only people in the hotel. The restaurant got gradually emptied with each night. Of course only a couple of weeks later the “firebreak” came in.

There does seem to be an obsession with pubs and cafes. These are not the only businesses suffering badly. There’s quite a few small-size attractions which are also being crucified by all this, the only slight mercy is that many of these wouldn’t be doing much at this particular time.

I don’t think a “go out to help out” will be wise next year though. The main thing is we need stability and normality, not silly artificial spikes in demand which would simply serve to put off the normal reliable clientele these places rely on.

 

[david1212]

Supermarkets revealed as place visitors are most likely to be exposed to Covid | ITV News

Supermarkets were the most common location reported by people testing positive for Covid-19, new data shows. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

So the best way to stop the virus spreading would be to shut the supermarkets and schools and keep the pubs open!

See this thread

Matt Hancock and Boris Johnson have implied the restrictions will largely be removed by the start of April and instead replaced with personal responsibility. This I interpret as letting individuals assess their own or family’s level of risk and behaving accordingly.

That to me does sound fairly encouraging. However I do have my suspicions that come April, the lockdown lobby will come up with new reasons as to why the restrictions should continue such as saying we can‘t be certain the vaccine is reducing transmission.

Hmmmmmmm ...... based on previous statements then the reality four or so months later I see as what they would like but the reality could be rather more draconian. If all of the vulnerable and key workers have been vaccinated and they are working at a good pace through the remainder of the over 18's then more likely.


It doesn't make much difference to me but I expected the area where I live to be tier 2 rather than tier 3. One factor being all the students who distorted the infection levels going back home.
As others have commented several rural areas have been lumped together with cities and conurbations. Maybe the idea is to stop those living in tier three travelling out to tier two for a substantial meal ? I do see this being the end for many restaurants, cafe bars, pubs etc both urban and rural plus suppliers to them. Even if the tier level gets dropped once any spike in January after Christmas mixing has passed January to Easter is the leanest time for them anyway.

 

[duncanp]

Interesting article in The Telegraph about a potential post lockdown savings splurge. It makes a comparison between now and the end of the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1920, and also the end of the First World War.

Some people have been saving money during lockdown, and will be looking for something to spend it on when restrictions are lifted.

Additionally, people are so sick and tired of all the restrictions, and being lectured about "killing granny" by the likes of Professor Twitty and Hancock, that they are going to have a big blow out as soon as they can.

Lockdown savings splurge may herald new 'Roaring Twenties'

If consumers worried about losing their jobs decide to sit on their savings, the picture could be very different

www.telegraph.co.uk

Britain could be set for another “Roaring Twenties” after the pandemic ends if exuberant families splash the cash saved through lockdown.
Household savings have surged despite the record-breaking recession, which could fuel a remarkable turnaround in the UK's economic fortunes in the years to come, according to a leading economist.
“History in the shape of the 1920s told us, once the [Spanish Flu] pandemic came to an end, also the war to be honest, people were desperate to get out and have a good time,” said Torsten Bell at the Resolution Foundation.
“It is called the Roaring Twenties for a reason. So there are possibilities out there for upside scenarios, even if we shouldn’t be counting on it.”
Family finances have improved dramatically this year, as those with steady incomes found their bank balances rising as they had few options to spend money.

​

In the past decade, households have typically saved between 5pc and 10pc of their incomes.
But at the height of lockdown that soared to more than one-quarter, hitting a peak of 28.1pc, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Households have paid down consumer credit debts by about £18bn since the pandemic began, Bank of England figures show, and stashed away almost £90bn of extra deposits.
As a result they had money to spend when the restrictions lifted over the summer, helping to power the 15.5pc growth in GDP seen over the three months to September.
“The recovery was fuelled primarily by a rebound in consumption as households undertook delayed purchases of durable goods, spent some of the savings accumulated during lockdown, and took advantage of time-limited tax reliefs and incentives for the housing and hospitality sectors,” said the OBR.
However, it is far from certain that exuberant spending will become a permanent habit after the second lockdown ends and restrictions ease.
Instead families may have suffered such a shock from the biggest recession in more than 300 years that they continue to save more and therefore worsen the recovery.

​

“People have faced this big shock to their livelihoods, being worried about being out of work. Is that going to lead them to save more on average as a share of their incomes compared with what they were doing before the pandemic?” said Richard Hughes, head of the OBR.
“That is possible and if so it could be a further drag on the recovery as people want to hang on to more of their savings in case they do end up facing a spell in unemployment.”
The OBR predicts a 15.1pc fall in household consumption this year, followed by a rebound of 7.5pc in 2021 and 9.7pc in 2022.
But after that, growth falls back below 2pc per year for the rest of its forecast that runs to 2025

 

[Richard Scott]

I cannot believe that there is any scientific thinking behind any of this. It seems to be a bunch of politicians thinking they're playing a real life computer game. They've trashed the economy, destroying people's livelihoods and other's mental well-being. What has this country become? We're restricted at every turn and for what? If we question it we're just told we're selfish and people are dying. I honestly cannot see any way out of all of this. It's a total obsession, very much like some computer games become, sure it isn't the Matrix we're living in?