The impression I get (I use these services for variety now and again between Chester and Manchester) is that west of Greenbank they are largely empty
Greenbank to Chester is the quietest section normally on weekdays during school term time. However, on Saturdays, Race Days and during School Holidays services can be quite busy between Greenbank and Chester. On an off-peak train I caught between Knutsford and Chester in school holidays the conductor was checking and selling tickets for almost the whole journey (obviously ignoring the time spent doing the doors.)
Certainly any proposals for extra services in RUS' or the Manchester/Northern Hub are for services starting/terminating at Northwich/Greenbank running towards Stockport, opposed to additional Chester-Greenbank services.
then gradually fill to Altrincham where a good proportion pile off for Metrolink or are local.
With the exception of a few peak services the number boarding a Manchester bound train at Altrincham is only slightly lower than the number alighting. You might get 25 alighting and 18 boarding.
The statistics for ticket sales show that less people board and alight at Altrincham than at Knutsford, despite what appears like a lot of people changing to the Metrolink at Altrincham on a few services.
I have never got the impression of a long-distance clientele
Before the December 08 timetable change there was a 09:30 Northwich-Blackpool service. I caught this service a few times and stayed on beyond Deansgate and everytime I did I noticed numerous people still on the train who had been on when the train departed Navigation Road and with it being booked for a 4 car 156 I certainly didn't see a lot of passengers who were travelling on the same train.
Leeds is a very popular university choice for students from Cheshire and Huddersfield seems to get quite a few students from Cheshire. I'm sure a fast train every 15 minutes from Piccadilly makes Leeds an attractive option. If your local service in to Piccadilly is only hourly then it doesn't make Hull an attractive option.
For Chester to Sheffield/Doncaster the fastest journey option is usually changing at Stockport due to the connection times being better than with the ATW service via Warrington.
the peak loadings seem to be on the school run.
The busiest two services are the ones taking kids to and from Knutsford High School. However, by itself that doesn't mean a lot. If there's 180 passengers on the 15:49 Manchester service leaving Knutsford and 100 are school kids then it doesn't mean that's the most profitable train of the day. If there's 110 passengers on the 17:49 and 5 are under 16 then it's the latter that'll probably make more money.
The stock used (mostly Pacers and the odd 150) and the journey time do not encourage use.
I agree about the stock not encouraging use but it's not quite as bad as you're making out. Taking the afternoon departures towards Chester the booked stock is as follows:
12:17 Class 156
13:17 Class 150
14:17 Class 142
15:17 Class 150
16:17 Class 142
16:58 (from Stockport) Class 150
The lack of semi-fasts on the line also doesn't encourage use.
However, like I said the stations on the line do get a higher proportion of long distance travel compared to other lines. Better stock and running semi-fasts would build on this opposed to opening a completely new market.
I didn't say they were paying cheap PTE fares, but the fare box from, say, Knutsford to Piccadilly on an hourly service can hardly compare with a decently loaded 390 every 20 minutes with a high proportion of premium long-distance fares.
Why? As I pointed out a lot of advance tickets are sold for the Manchester-London services these sell from just £11.50 for Manchester-London, that's more than some singles on the Mid-Cheshire line for a 'local' journey. Also as I pointed out Virgin are uncutting Northern on a lot of local fares by selling Virgin Only local tickets such as Crewe-Manchester, Macclesfield-Stockport etc. Off-Peak Virgin are really providing a local service north of Crewe/Stoke with limited long distance travellers.
possibly running to Crewe via Sandbach.
You may be aware that a feasibility study in to running a Crewe service from the Mid-Cheshire line found the benefit:cost ratio to be 5:1, which is double what's required to actually reopen a line. However, a lack of funds due to the recession has seen no progress.