More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Luke McDonnell]

As previously stated earlier in this thread I will be very disappointed if phase2/2a is cancelled or paused politically I am a pragmatic individual I was very disappointed with Brexit when it happened and I voted remain but I did eventually come around to accepting the result and have accepted future moves to rejoin the EU may take a long time and only after another referendum ideally with large majority in favour of re-joining but looking at the likes of Gareth Dennis's channel (I know he has left wing political views but he is an engineer not a politically minded guy who is more likely to take it from a pragmatic perspective) I totally understand the whole business case for HS2 is based on capacity rather than speed Gareth explained that scrapping the eastern leg was bad enough but scrapping the Manchester leg would mean that Manchester/Merseyside will not benefit from the capacity release either which means that we will not get the benefits of more local services and freight services on the classic network - I really hope that what has been said is not true and if it is confirmed I will be writing to my (Labour) MP and demanding a reply and confirmation that Labour commit to the project considering the high probability that they will be in government within a year Labour must commit IMO otherwise they will not be serious about levelling up the north of England anyway do you think this is a given normally I am not known for ranting on about things but dropping commitment to the next leg of HS2 is a step to far and in my opinion if anyone on here is pro HS2 for its benefits if these rumours are true/confirmed IMO you muse write/email your MP whatever their party maybe we will be able to get some momentum going.

 

[LUYMun]

If the plan to reprise the HS2-HS1 link to create room for international travel, only these services would require check-ins, with assigned pick-up only points before Old Oak Common and drop-off points in continental Europe. It's inefficient to force check-ins with domestic services, as the process would only delay passengers further, discouraging those travelling with other modes from switching away from cars or airline.

However, having both systems (check-in and non check-in) would cause all sorts of issues with domestic and international passengers, as the latter would need to be warehoused somewhere, as other commenters have said in this thread. A significant chunk of space would need to be accommodated for them, so HS2 may as well increase the size of the buildings, which is the last thing anyone wants to contribute to the ballooning costs. Unless the UK enters the Schengen zone, or permits visa-free travel, international travel will have to require check-ins for everyone's safety and convenience, so it's better off not adding in the HS1 link and tell everyone to change at Euston.

 

[350401]

And it would have been unbuildable.
Unless you want some sort of totalitarian regime where the peasants can be brushed aside and the ruling elite can do whatever they want......

And a lot of the "mitigations" actually ended up saving money, see HS2s original plan to try and force a surface alignment through the NNML corridor. Tunneling saves money compared to that!
I'm not sure building a line through the Chilterns on a viaduct would be possible without literal troops guarding the sites.


The scheme design has been flawed from its conception, and I am not aware of HS2 adapting in any meaningful way.

To be honest, yes the planning system in this country needs massive reform. Too many people can have a say and block essential infrastructure (and homes, power plants, electric lines, roads etc). China uses the U.K. infrastructure planning as an example of why democracy doesn’t work.

The NIMBYS in the Chilterns were perfectly happy when the M40 was being bulldozed through the goring gap.

 

[RichW1]

Environmental bureaucracy is most of the excess cost vs other countries. But second, and this is a big one… no other country in Europe and even the world builds lines to go at high speed right into the city centres and then by tunnelling under their entire suburbs for tens of miles!! This is a gold-plated project. It was a choice. The choice means the cost increases by tens of billions anyway. Don’t get me wrong, it is/would be a stunning achievement like HS1’s London build on an even larger scale, but it costs a lot more to do this!! So the comparisons with other European or world high speed lines just aren’t a fair comparison. Decisions were made to create a 223mph, tunnelled-under-the-suburbs high speed line. Did anyone think this unique build would be reasonable? So much has been cut now and Old Oak can’t deal with Manchester and Liverpool traffic with 6 platforms. Euston holds the key and that is a dog’s breakfast. The plans are hardly worthy of the terminus in Europe’s largest metro on the busiest mainline as it stands. There is no ambition (in contrast) at the Euston end. 10 platforms meaning strained capacity. It’s all a mess. It is so depressing.

 

[Dan G]

Tamara Cohen (Sky News journalist) on twitter:

Government preparing to scrap the northern leg of HS2 to Manchester - with a decision set to be made & announced next week, I understand.

Was followed up by

This is all we’re being told tonight, amid political/business backlash:

A Government spokesperson said:

“The HS2 project is already well underway with spades in the ground, and our focus remains on delivering it.”

This government really is throwing in the towel.

 

[Energy]

But second, and this is a big one… no other country in Europe and even the world builds lines to go at high speed right into the city centres and then by tunnelling under their entire suburbs for tens of miles!! This is a gold-plated project. It was a choice.

It was a good choice, other European high-speed rail systems really suffer in the last leg being old infrastructure.

There was hardly much choice anyway, there isn't loads of space on traditional lines, and London being so big means it is a while before there is space for HS2 to pop out of the ground.

The choice means the cost increases by tens of billions anyway.

You should probably find a number to back up your claim, the public ones for Euston tunnels are the several billions, not tens of.

The plans are hardly worthy of the terminus in Europe’s largest metro on the busiest mainline as it stands

I'm confused, you think HS2 to Euston is too expensive... but the station isn't ambitious enough?

 

[HSTEd]

Environmental bureaucracy is most of the excess cost vs other countries. But second, and this is a big one… no other country in Europe and even the world builds lines to go at high speed right into the city centres and then by tunnelling under their entire suburbs for tens of miles!!

Japan and China, to some degree, do these things. Modern Japanese Shinkansen projects have ever climbing quantities of tunnels in them, and the only line to be built with a "slow" section into the city was the Tohoku Shinkansen which was also the second one built!

They are also far cheaper than this mess per km.
Tunnels are a popular scapegoat, but that is not the reason for the cost overruns.

And in any case, the tunnels in London exist because they were cheaper than the surface solution HS2 was pushing originally.

EDIT:

. The choice means the cost increases by tens of billions anyway

This simply isn't true, speed has had very limited impact on cost, and tunneling into London ended up being cheaper than surface construction along the New North Main Line alignment.
Surface construction is ruinously expensive in all but the emptiest terrain.

Which is why most modern high speed lines in densely populated areas abroad are either in tunnel or on viaducts.

 

[WatcherZero]

So the Conservative plan is to announce they are axing the Northern section of HS2, two days before holding their annual party conference in Manchester?
Sunaks political instincts are as sharp as his predecessors I see.

I cant see that announcement overshadowing their conference at all...

 

[AlbertBeale]

To be honest, yes the planning system in this country needs massive reform. Too many people can have a say and block essential infrastructure (and homes, power plants, electric lines, roads etc). China uses the U.K. infrastructure planning as an example of why democracy doesn’t work.

The NIMBYS in the Chilterns were perfectly happy when the M40 was being bulldozed through the goring gap.

Really? All the people I knew in the Chilterns 50 years ago were extremely unhappy about the M40 going through their landscape!

 

[Energy]

I cant see that announcement overshadowing their conference at all...

Going by the backlash from senior tories, ex-PMs and local leaders he'll have an interesting time there...

 

[Sonik]

Going by the backlash from senior tories, ex-PMs and local leaders he'll have an interesting time there...

I thought they dropped a clanger with the Net-Zero announcements, but with this on top I think he has totally lost the plot.

HS2 may not be universally popular, but canceling it half built may well turn out to be even less popular, not least because of all the thousands of businesses and jobs directly affected. HS2 have been careful to spread the supply chain right across the country so so it's sure to blow up politically all over the place.

I've seen rumors that the plan is to announce that the money 'saved' will instead be invested in local transport schemes, but to offer that after canceling something that's already under construction is just going to leave a lot of people questioning if they should believe for one minute anything at all that's promised.

 

[Noddy]

I thought they dropped a clanger with the Net-Zero announcements, but with this on top I think he has totally lost the plot.

HS2 may not be universally popular, but canceling it half built may well turn out to be even less popular, not least because of all the thousands of businesses and jobs directly affected. HS2 have been careful to spread the supply chain right across the country so so it's sure to blow up politically all over the place.

I've seen rumors that the plan is to announce that the money 'saved' will instead be invested in local transport schemes, but to offer that after canceling something that's already under construction is just going to leave a lot of people questioning if they should believe for one minute anything at all that's promised.

Totally agree. This project has been beset with years of total and utter mismanagement and incompetence from the top of government, we are deservedly a laughing stock around the world.

I imagine any announcements to invest the ‘saved’ money in local infrastructure will be fully committed, until quietly disappearing next month.

 

[Taunton]

Totally agree. This project has been beset with years of total and utter mismanagement and incompetence from the top of government, we are deservedly a laughing stock around the world.

That's not really correct. It's not the "top of government" who have been ludicrously inept with their estimates, and squandered the entire budget (and then some) for the total project just on the first stage from Old Oak to Birmingham. It is the project engineers, estimators and management who have done this. They are the "professionals" who put these numbers together.

All we see is the headline figure in billions steadily quadrupling. It would be instructive to know where the money is actually going. How many more cubic metres of ground are being excavated, or concrete poured, and why. How many more man hours on site, and in the management offices. Why weren't these estimated before. There's certainly not any miles of route being added, and in fact the detailed alignment was done quite some years ago. Any mainstream construction contractor would have this all gripped on a project every month.

 

[Bantamzen]

R.I.P. HS2. It was nice having the dream of a real high speed service towards the north. Now the best we can hope for is a vastly over-expensive line from Birmingham to somewhere in the general vicinity of central London. A kind of Ryanair project, just costing Emirates first class prices. What a sorry mess the railway industry is in this country...

 

[Noddy]

That's not really correct. It's not the "top of government" who have been ludicrously inept with their estimates, and squandered the entire budget (and then some) for the total project just on the first stage from Old Oak to Birmingham. It is the project engineers, estimators and management who have done this. They are the "professionals" who put these numbers together.

The project has gone through repeated political cycles of delays (euphemistically called ‘pauses’), threats of cancellation, having bits chopped off, and respecification. These latest issues seem to be the result of another cost rise (£8 billlion according to the telegraph) but given that inflation has been over 11% (and even higher in the construction industry), partly due to the governments inept mismanagement of the economy it’s hardly surprising costs are rising.

 

[Samzino]

Northern HS2 line set to be scrapped with costs 'out of control', Sky News understands

The planned railway - announced by the last Labour government but backed by successive Tory administrations - is intended to link London, the Midlands and the North of England but has been plagued by delays and rising costs.

news.sky.com

Assuming the Northern leg really is scrapped then how much truly is the cost if what remains?

 

[Meole]

Scrapping the HS2 extension is designed to appeal to southern voters fed up with all the money going up north, as they are lead to believe.
It is a political decision, if it was felt it was a vote attractor it would remain, the thinking is that most people up north wouldn't use it anyway.

 

[josh-j]

That's not really correct. It's not the "top of government" who have been ludicrously inept with their estimates, and squandered the entire budget (and then some) for the total project just on the first stage from Old Oak to Birmingham. It is the project engineers, estimators and management who have done this. They are the "professionals" who put these numbers together.

All we see is the headline figure in billions steadily quadrupling. It would be instructive to know where the money is actually going. How many more cubic metres of ground are being excavated, or concrete poured, and why. How many more man hours on site, and in the management offices. Why weren't these estimated before. There's certainly not any miles of route being added, and in fact the detailed alignment was done quite some years ago. Any mainstream construction contractor would have this all gripped on a project every month.

Firstly, it hasn't helped that the government have kept messing with what they want from the project causing everything to have to be reinvented again and again.

Secondly, if the immediate problem is with the industry itself then maybe the government should not have allowed the industry to become so overcomplicated and poorly structured.

The government can't even be bothered to stop schools falling down. And yes it's a choice - none of this needs to be done this way, we don't need to refuse to invest. Unfortunately the government is very good at convincing us at the bottom that there's no money for anything, but in reality that is entirely due to the structure and strategy *they* have put in place.

 

[The Ham]

That's not really correct. It's not the "top of government" who have been ludicrously inept with their estimates, and squandered the entire budget (and then some) for the total project just on the first stage from Old Oak to Birmingham. It is the project engineers, estimators and management who have done this. They are the "professionals" who put these numbers together.

All we see is the headline figure in billions steadily quadrupling. It would be instructive to know where the money is actually going. How many more cubic metres of ground are being excavated, or concrete poured, and why. How many more man hours on site, and in the management offices. Why weren't these estimated before. There's certainly not any miles of route being added, and in fact the detailed alignment was done quite some years ago. Any mainstream construction contractor would have this all gripped on a project every month.

What's your source for the cost overruns compared to the budget allocation to HS2?

We're you aware of the government held contingency (beyond the HS2 budget contingency) - how much was that and what was the date that was all used up (given it must have been used up given the quadrupling of costs)?

 

[Taunton]

What's your source for the cost overruns compared to the budget allocation to HS2?

Try today's headline article in the Sunday Telegraph

Newspaper headlines: 'Axe looms' over HS2 as Tories plan new policies

Sunday's papers continue to discuss the potential scrapping of a leg of HS2 - and a number of new policies the PM is said to be working on.

www.bbc.co.uk

Firstly, it hasn't helped that the government have kept messing with what they want from the project causing everything to have to be reinvented again and again.

That just hasn't happened, has it. Apart from cutting out bits as their cost mushrooms and value for money thus diminishes.

 

[josh-j]

To be honest, a cost overrun of one fifth seems pretty trivial for a project of this scale. It's a political move. They don't want to build it, the cost thing is just their excuse. A few billion here or there is absolutely nothing on a national level.

Try today's headline article in the Sunday Telegraph

Newspaper headlines: 'Axe looms' over HS2 as Tories plan new policies

Sunday's papers continue to discuss the potential scrapping of a leg of HS2 - and a number of new policies the PM is said to be working on.

www.bbc.co.uk

That just hasn't happened, has it. Apart from cutting out bits as their cost mushrooms and value for money thus diminishes.

Well the value for money in spending money planning it, then building a small section, then throwing away all the benefits of the project by cutting it off in the midland must be an even worse outcome of a cost benefit analysis...

 

[The Ham]

Scrapping the HS2 extension is designed to appeal to southern voters fed up with all the money going up north, as they are lead to believe.
It is a political decision, if it was felt it was a vote attractor it would remain, the thinking is that most people up north wouldn't use it anyway.

Whilst many won't use HS2, several of those will benefit indirectly - even if that's reduced road congestion.

If course an equally small number of people would benefit from the inheritance tax cut which is allegedly being proposed (and is likely to cost the same at the cost saving as HS2).

 

[josh-j]

Quite. What is more important, building public infrastructure or letting very rich families get richer at everyone else's expense?

Answers in this latest news.

I would also note that this supposed increase of £8bn the Sunday telegraph mentions is less than the amount lost to ROSCO shareholder dividends over the past ten years. Sure ten years is a while but this is a long term project.

 

[The Ham]

Try today's headline article in the Sunday Telegraph

Newspaper headlines: 'Axe looms' over HS2 as Tories plan new policies

Sunday's papers continue to discuss the potential scrapping of a leg of HS2 - and a number of new policies the PM is said to be working on.

www.bbc.co.uk

That just hasn't happened, has it. Apart from cutting out bits as their cost mushrooms and value for money thus diminishes.

And what's their source.

Bear in mind that the Guardian article quoted to thread says:

Rishi Sunak pushes to axe northern HS2 rail line ahead of Tory conference

Sources say the PM wants to scrap the project’s section o Manchester before the party’s annual gathering in the city next weekend

www.theguardian.com

The Observer understands that there is concern across Whitehall, including inside the Treasury, that cutting the leg beyond Birmingham would destroy the business case for the project. One Whitehall source warned scaling it back would make it “totemic of incompetence”.
One insider said: “Even Treasury officials actually are a little concerned both about supply chain implications, and the implications of cancelling such a big commitment and the way that looks, both nationally and internationally.” Sources also said that any savings arising from scaling back the line would not help Sunak in the short term or raise significant money that could be used for pre-election tax cuts.
A Whitehall source said: “Without doing Euston and the bit above Birmingham, the entire economics of the programme don’t stack up. And, actually, it may no longer be value for money.”

To summarise, The Treasury thinks cutting it is a bad move!

I don't know if any other project which has had that been reported about it - they are normally so keen on not spending money!

Personally I wouldn't trust the government not to say "yes here's some lovely public transport for your all, instead of HS2" and then two weeks later either quietly drop it or the details be found out to be an extra bus an hour for one bus route for each of those major cities - and no not a very useful route at that.

Given how "reliable" the government is, I would rather go all in on black (i.e. build HS2) than give my chips to another on the promise that they'll bet wisely.

Anyway do you know how £8bn compared to the contingencies (HS2 & government held reserve)?

Well for starters £5.5bn of it (for phase one) is the HS2 reserves, so at worst (and I say that as it's not clear if that £8bn is only phase one or for other sections as well) the government would be in the hook for £2.5bn - how's that compare to the government reserve for phase one - do you know?

 

[dk1]

Talking on Laura Kuenssberg (presented by Victoria Derbyshire) about HS2 amongst other things, did Grant Shapps just say East West Rail was Leeds to Manchester?

She wouldn’t let it go on Northern Powerhouse and it’s implications with downgrading HS2.

 

[The Planner]

The NIMBYS in the Chilterns were perfectly happy when the M40 was being bulldozed through the goring gap.

Are you sure about that? I doubt there is a lot of evidence seeing as it was planned and built 50 years ago, but I doubt the Chiltern cutting was welcomed with applause. They certainly got the newer section in the 90s moved around Otmoor.

 

[stuu]

Environmental bureaucracy is most of the excess cost vs other countries. But second, and this is a big one… no other country in Europe and even the world builds lines to go at high speed right into the city centres and then by tunnelling under their entire suburbs for tens of miles!!

Both Madrid and Barcelona have high speed lines going right under the city centres. Hong Kong says hi too.

France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland have all built tunnels for suburban trains creating capacity in their surface stations

 

[Dan G]

Totally agree. This project has been beset with years of total and utter mismanagement and incompetence from the top of government, we are deservedly a laughing stock around the world.

I imagine any announcements to invest the ‘saved’ money in local infrastructure will be fully committed, until quietly disappearing next month.

I hear this talk of mismanagement all the time but can anyone actually point to examples of such, rather than just design choices being taken that people disagree with?

Phase one seems to be going pretty well to me.

 

[The Planner]

Part of the issue is getting the contractors on board, I can imagine the design had a multitude of assumptions on how it would be constructed with estimates based on that. Civils contractors come in, suck teeth and say "can't build it like that guv".

 

[Oxfordblues]

Sorry not to be fully-briefed, but is the Birmingham to Handsacre Junction line likely to survive this latest purge?