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More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

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Winthorpe

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Not that one should read too much into it, but the PM today told the Liaison Committee:

“The plans are there, not just for Euston to Old Oak Common, but for phase one and then obviously we’ll get to phase 2a and beyond”

This is reported on the Guido Fawkes blog:
 
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HSTEd

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Maybe it's time to ask some experienced railwaymen instead then?
The branch of the railway infrastructure with experience in station design has been gone for decades.

And even if they were not, there is nothing like the proposed Euston station anywhere in the UK - the shear number of passengers and trains that must be handled in a given floor area resembles levels commonly seen in metro systems rather than mainline railways.
 

matacaster

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Only because the price of the 11 platform option is frozen in time now, when in reality it would have continued to escalate out of control, just as the 10 platform station option has.

The reality is the concept for Euston is simply undeliverable on the space available - and tearing down even more of Camden to make room is also unworkable for political reasons.

EDIT:
And that old plan to hack Euston suburbans onto Crossrail to make room at the station is unworkable now with the construction already complete at OOC.

They've really made themselves a gordian knot.
Perhaps the architects should be given a brief with a maximum project cost attached. If their often unnecessarily trendy designs result in estimated costs exceeding the project target, then the percentage overspend is deducted from their fees. They would soon produce practical and simpler designs rather than trying for a RIBA award.
 

stuu

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We've now had two attempts by learned groups of engineering consultants, and neither of them has delivered a workable design.

Is there any evidence that the third time around will be any better? At some point it becomes rather more likely that what they want simply isn't deliverable.
Financially possible isn't the same as physically possible - from what I understand it is the complexity of the need to include the oversite development which has blown the cost out. There is already a massive hole there, a lot of the excavation has been done, it's a far less constrained site than London Bridge so I don't believe it is impossible to build a station, just not one that incorporates everything expected of it
 

AndrewE

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Not that one should read too much into it, but the PM today told the Liaison Committee:

This is reported on the Guido Fawkes blog:
Don't read anything into it:
HS2 could go full steam ahead with the initially planned Euston Terminus. He said:
The plans are there, not just for Euston to Old Oak Common, but for phase one and then obviously we’ll get to phase 2a and beyond”
No promise to build anything at all...
 

SynthD

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We've now had two attempts by learned groups of engineering consultants, and neither of them has delivered a workable design.

Is there any evidence that the third time around will be any better? At some point it becomes rather more likely that what they want simply isn't deliverable.
Are they unworkable designs? I thought the issue is the indecisive government.
 

Nottingham59

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Are they unworkable designs? I thought the issue is the indecisive government.
They are undeliverable within any sensible budget. The cost is already up to £4.8Bn at 2019 prices, and there has been 18% inflation in constructions costs since then. See the NAO report:

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/high-speed-two-euston-summary.pdf

£2.6bn: High Speed Two Ltd’s (HS2 Ltd’s) budget for High Speed Two (HS2) Euston station (2019 prices)
£4.8bn: HS2 Ltd’s estimate for HS2 Euston station as at March 2023 (2019 prices)
£548mn: spend on HS2 Euston station as at the end of December 2022 (in cash terms)
 

SynthD

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That is the price for the multiple fully developed plans the government has asked for, and finishing the latest of those. It doesn’t indicate much about the quality of the current plan.
 

matacaster

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That is the price for the multiple fully developed plans the government has asked for, and finishing the latest of those. It doesn’t indicate much about the quality of the current plan.
BUT, Architects, quantity surveyors and other parties involved should have been able to identify that the estimated total cost was going to be way too much ages ago (feasibility study)? Govt should then have called a halt before spending a fortune completing plans and detailed estimates. The architects saw a gravy train and milked it, no incentive to call a halt.
 

E6007

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They are undeliverable within any sensible budget. The cost is already up to £4.8Bn at 2019 prices, and there has been 18% inflation in constructions costs since then. See the NAO report:
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/high-speed-two-euston-summary.pdf
Para 19 on the report is telling:

While it was necessary to look again at the design and costs of the station in 2020, the budget for Euston station was fixed too early and too low for what was intended to be achieved.
 

matacaster

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Para 19 on the report is telling:

While it was necessary to look again at the design and costs of the station in 2020, the budget for Euston station was fixed too early and too low for what was intended to be achieved.
So, what should have happened is one of. a) increase budget (funded) to match aspirations
b) reduce requirements to match level of committed funding

The above seem very basic project management issues. Just simply taking the money when they know it's an impossible ask is not ethical. Nor, if true, is the govt pretending it is achievable if they have been told it's not.
 

zwk500

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The above seem very basic project management issues. Just simply taking the money when they know it's an impossible ask is not ethical. Nor, if true, is the govt pretending it is achievable if they have been told it's not.
Ethics have been of minor concern at most to this government since people like Johnson got anywhere near power. Tenders were incentivised to underbid to secure the contract, and government was incentivised to ignore cost rises to present a more acceptable headline to opponents of the project. It's not like this is a new phenomenon - the 2012 Olympics doubled in cost the day after the bid was won, or something close to it. Also, ask anybody who's built an extension recently.
 

matacaster

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Ethics have been of minor concern at most to this government since people like Johnson got anywhere near power. Tenders were incentivised to underbid to secure the contract, and government was incentivised to ignore cost rises to present a more acceptable headline to opponents of the project. It's not like this is a new phenomenon - the 2012 Olympics doubled in cost the day after the bid was won, or something close to it. Also, ask anybody who's built an extension recently.
I agree. If a firm is asked to tender a bid on a job they do want, they tend to bid low (or sometimes in the past illegally colluded with other bidders to agree who will win). If they don't want the work, they put in a big bid and occasionally are surprised to get it as other bids fail for one reason or other. A low bid will get treasury approval, whilst an honest bid will get rejected, even though they know the low bid is probably impossible.
All changes to a fixed price contract tend to be at eye watering prices.
 

snowball

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(or sometimes in the past illegally colluded with other bidders to agree who will win).
I saw a headline within the last week about contractors colluding, though it turns out to relate to events a few years ago.


Ten construction firms have been fined a combined £60m by the competition regulator for “illegally colluding” to rig bids for lucrative contracts for projects including Bow Street magistrates court and Selfridges department store.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) found that the companies had acted as a cartel over 19 private and public sector contracts that were worth a total of £150m.

The contracts were found to have been rigged between 2013 and 2018 using a tactic known as “cover bidding”, the regulator said.
 

hwl

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Are they unworkable designs? I thought the issue is the indecisive government.
The government changes the scope and specification before the design work is nearing completion so that the existing design doesn't (and can't) meet the new scope. Repeat many time over with both minor and major changes. (Echoes of Sisyphus)
This pause effectively breaks the cycle.
 

BRX

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Perhaps the architects should be given a brief with a maximum project cost attached. If their often unnecessarily trendy designs result in estimated costs exceeding the project target, then the percentage overspend is deducted from their fees. They would soon produce practical and simpler designs rather than trying for a RIBA award.
Is there any kind of evidence that cost problems at Euston have been caused by architects producing "unnecessarily trendy designs"?

My guess is that you know very little in detail about this project but have some unresolved architect related trauma in your past that you need to work through - perhaps not on this thread though.
 

Xavi

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Is there any kind of evidence that cost problems at Euston have been caused by architects producing "unnecessarily trendy designs"?
Stakeholder demands (not accepting a bland and functional station) are the main cost driver, although architects often design blind to the budget.
 

12LDA28C

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Is there any kind of evidence that cost problems at Euston have been caused by architects producing "unnecessarily trendy designs"?

My guess is that you know very little in detail about this project but have some unresolved architect related trauma in your past that you need to work through - perhaps not on this thread though.

Some of the cost problems at Euston have been caused by the DfT issuing new/updated instructions to HS2 such as to better integrate with NR redevelopment of the site and its surroundings meaning that much of the previous design work was scrapped at a cost to the taxpayer of £106 million. More meddling from an utterly incompetent Government.
 

Shaw S Hunter

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Some of the cost problems at Euston have been caused by the DfT issuing new/updated instructions to HS2 such as to better integrate with NR redevelopment of the site and its surroundings meaning that much of the previous design work was scrapped at a cost to the taxpayer of £106 million. More meddling from an utterly incompetent Government.
While I'm certainly no fan of the current government I would suggest that much of the problem is due to the very long-standing problem of government departments being awful at managing large scale procurement. Think about the huge cost overruns with NHS IT upgrades or just about any large scale purchase of military equipment. It's generally reckoned that the public sector in general, and government departments in particular, are about the worst possible clients any supplier could deal with but the sheer size of the contracts means they can't be ignored. Add in the fact that politicians seem unable to resist tinkering/micro-managing the process and you have a recipe for exactly the farce now unfolding around HS2.
 

GRALISTAIR

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While I'm certainly no fan of the current government I would suggest that much of the problem is due to the very long-standing problem of government departments being awful at managing large scale procurement. Think about the huge cost overruns with NHS IT upgrades or just about any large scale purchase of military equipment. It's generally reckoned that the public sector in general, and government departments in particular, are about the worst possible clients any supplier could deal with but the sheer size of the contracts means they can't be ignored. Add in the fact that politicians seem unable to resist tinkering/micro-managing the process and you have a recipe for exactly the farce now unfolding around HS2.
I Agree with this sentiment
 

BRX

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Stakeholder demands (not accepting a bland and functional station) are the main cost driver, although architects often design blind to the budget.

This is a popular view but it's an oversimplification of what actually happens in most projects.

Most projects start out with a set of aims, and a target budget. Quite often these two things are not compatible; that is the desired aims can't realistically be achieved within the desired budget. If that's obvious to the architect at the outset, then of course they ought to say to the client. The choice then is either to scale down the brief or accept that the budget needs to be raised. Clients commonly don't want to do either, and ask for design work to proceed based on the initial brief anyway, hoping that savings can somehow be found later. It's rarely in an architect's interests to do this, because it just means there's likely to be a lot of abortive design work, for stuff that later needs to be omitted for cost reasons.

Sometimes, it's just not really possible for an architect to judge costs at the outset of a project. There are all sorts of reasons for this. Maybe the brief itself simply isn't well defined. Often you have to go some way into the design process to work out what the brief actually needs to be. Maybe you are operating during a period where material or labour costs are changing an unpredictable. That's been the case for the past few years. Maybe the high-cost elements of the build aren't really related to architectural decisions as such and are more to do with engineering requirements, some of which might not be known until the site has been investigated more fully. There seems to have been some element of this at Euston.

The idea that architects (or other consultants such as civil or structural engineers) have walked away laughing from the Euston scheme with these millions of pounds of fees is a bit silly. Those fees are payment for work that has been done. Probably hundreds of people will have invested many hours of their lives working up designs in good faith, only to find that decisions made by the "client", in this case ultimately the DfT, make all that work redundant. It's pretty common in the building industry to be working on designs that never get built, because projects get changed or aborted for all sorts of reasons. No-one really wants to be doing abortive work. Most designers want to do their job well and want to see a project come into reality and be successful. The image of some kind of "gravy train" where all these people sit around doing unrealistic designs while money is thrown at them is kind of insulting.

Reading the NAO report, there doesn't seem to be any indication that the problems have originated in the design team drawing up clearly unrealistic or gold-plated schemes. The issues seem mainly to do with the various changes of mind at a much higher level.

Also, I don't have any detailed knowledge of the various designs that have been proposed or abandoned, but my guess is that cosmetic architectural stuff is not going to form a large proportion of the cost of this scheme. My guess is that the costliness is mostly going to be related to the massive engineering complexities of that site. Not just the basic structural issues of building around existing structures but the sequencing and logistics of the building process too.
 

Verulamius

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They are undeliverable within any sensible budget. The cost is already up to £4.8Bn at 2019 prices, and there has been 18% inflation in constructions costs since then. See the NAO report:
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/high-speed-two-euston-summary.pdf

£2.6bn: High Speed Two Ltd’s (HS2 Ltd’s) budget for High Speed Two (HS2) Euston station (2019 prices)
£4.8bn: HS2 Ltd’s estimate for HS2 Euston station as at March 2023 (2019 prices)
£548mn: spend on HS2 Euston station as at the end of December 2022 (in cash terms)

Are these the costs to the Euston Tunnels, Euston Approaches and Euston Station or just the station?
 

jfowkes

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The Boston Big Dig, Berlin Brandenburg airport... perhaps as a species we need to accept that we just sometimes aren't very good at getting infrastructure projects right. Not that we shouldn't try to, or learn lessons, or even use punitive measures when things fail. But to some extent it seems to be part of our DNA.
 

stuu

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Nottingham59

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Tunnels and approaches are a separate contract, which seems to be going to plan.
Tunnelling overall seems to be going more or less to plan. As I understand it, the twin bores from OOC to Eustion have not started yet. The dilemma for DfT is that the launching point for the TBMs for these is from within the station box at Old Oak, and there is no feasible alternative.

So the obvious option - opening HS2 to Old Oak first, and then make a final decision about Euston - is not available. They can't start creating the OOC station until the TBMs have started towards Euston.
 

najaB

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So the obvious option - opening HS2 to Old Oak first, and then make a final decision about Euston - is not available. They can't start creating the OOC station until the TBMs have started towards Euston.
The obvious thing to do is drive the tunnels now, even if Euston is delayed for a few years.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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The obvious thing to do is drive the tunnels now, even if Euston is delayed for a few years.
The Euston TBMs have been ordered and are under construction, ready to start early next year (on present plans).
The Euston tunnels will be fed by a separate logistics tunnel across the OOC site (aligned north-south) to the Euston TBM launch site, which will deliver segments and remove spoil.
Boring of the logistics tunnel is about to start, with a specially-constructed TBM.
OOC station can't be completed until the Euston tunnels are complete, as everything goes in/out via the OOC site.
The final Euston approaches (beyond the tunnel portal) could probably be deferred, but there would need to be new local access facilities to complete the work, either road or NR.
HS2 has already started construction of the three ventilation/emergency access shafts for the Euston tunnels.
 

MarkyT

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The obvious thing to do is drive the tunnels now, even if Euston is delayed for a few years.
I think it's neccessary to bore the Euston tunnels before Old Oak Common opens as the trench there will be blocked by logistics for spoil removal and construction materials. Open a station at OOC before tunnels are started and it's possible their construction could be impossible unless TBMs could be started from Euston.
 

najaB

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Open a station at OOC before tunnels are started and it's possible their construction could be impossible unless TBMs could be started from Euston.
Nothing is impossible if you throw enough money at it.

But that would mean saving, say £2B now to spend £40B later which isn't a sensible use of public funds. Oh, wait...
 
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