brad465
Established Member
If Johnson faces a no confidence vote but survives it, he's immune for a year, and he'll do a massive amount to damage to the party knowing he's got an all access pass. Some reports suggest around 30 letters have been sent to Graham Brady, and that there are more members of the party who say they're waiting for Sue Gray's report into the parties but whose minds are already made up (and are just following due process), so more letters could easily follow.I agree with is what will, eventually, happen. I suspect there’s some way to go before we reach that point. Johnson isn’t going to give up readily, and nor is there any neat way to remove him if he doesn’t resign.
We can bet that a lot of Conservatives will be thinking the word “liability”, but how they translate that into a process which removes - and replaces - him is a significant headache.
Personally I’d pick Hunt at this point, out of a weak line-up. Part of his attraction is not having been tainted by the last two years.
Recent seat projects have shown it's not out of reach for Labour and the Lib Dems to have a coalition/arrangement without any SNP support, however it would be difficult to obtain the seat numbers and for Labour to resist SNP relationship questions.I doubt anything much will happen until the May local government results are in.
Also no one in their right mind would want to take over at a time like this. If he is defenestrated it will happen in autumn if the polls don't improve, the local election results are disastrous and if he fluffs the party conference and when Covid (and Aprils huge energy price hike) is receding into the distance.
The polls at the moment are just an opinion poll on recent events, not on who they will vote for. A similar thing occured in reverse during the year 2000 lorry blockade. The tories went about 10 points clear. The only time they did during the blair years. After it was over it faded away and Blair won a landslide.
Labours fundamental problem is that, having lost their Scottish seats, they can only govern in coalition or with the support of the SNP. That is totally toxic to the English voters and will be boldy propagandised by the tories, just as they did in the last three elections.
I don't think though Johnson would be allowed to lead the party conference next autumn if the local election results are not good for him/the Tories, not just because it would be clear Johnson's a liability, but because the party will want a new leader in time for the conference to give a rousing speech/overall display to help revive fortunes.