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Off peak/peak v Advance

43066

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Between the expensive fares and the ridiculous "rules" that TOCs such as LNER have implemented, its no wonder people are being pushed back into their cars (and a few onto planes).

But the evidence is that they aren’t? The LNER train I was on earlier was rammed, and they’re carrying more passengers than ever before, despite the changes to tickets

Most people (as I believe there was research done to show) just want to buy a ticket from A to B, and are happy to use a specific train as they would with an airline.
 
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Adrian1980uk

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My point would always be that the TOC does not get any advantage out of advanced tickets, it's not like they're going to look and say we're selling a lot of tickets for 9am train Saturday so we'll get a longer train for that service. In reality these days, the trains are so fixed that even if consistently they're crush loaded, it takes years for extra/longer trains to do anything about it
 

Bald Rick

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My point would always be that the TOC does not get any advantage out of advanced tickets, it's not like they're going to look and say we're selling a lot of tickets for 9am train Saturday so we'll get a longer train for that service. In reality these days, the trains are so fixed that even if consistently they're crush loaded, it takes years for extra/longer trains to do anything about it

Of course TOCs do, and so do passengers. Advance purchase enables TOCs to price services according to demand so that the less popular trains have more cheaper tickets, which means the most popular trains are less crowded. This in turn means that more passengers have a comfortable journey (and are therefore more likely to be repeat customers), and that more people are carried.

Some passengers are quite prepared to travel at a less than ideal time for them if it means saving money. For example, trains from London to Newcastle / Edinburgh on Saturday mornings are usually busy, but the first couple of services are slightly less busy. Advance fares are therefore usually cheaper, to encourage those willing to travel at earlier times to do so. If the off peak fare was the same price all day Saturday, those passengers would most likely head for trains later in the morning, and suffer gross overcrowding as a result.

Also, by enabling more passengers to travel by spreading demand more evenly, it also enables the railway to make more revenue, which (beleive it or not) helps keep fares lower than they might otherwise be, and specifically enables some passengers to travel for some bargain fares, who might otherwise not travel at all.
 
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I will never buy an advance ticket or any of its variants such as 70 minute flex so I just avoid travelling to Scotland and the North of England. I live in the South of England and fortunately I have no need to travel to Scotland and the North of England and therefore travel with LNER. There are interesting places to visit in Scotland and the North of England but I will not visit them unless and until there are reasonably priced anytime or off peak fares on the trains to Scotland and the North of England. Four hundred pounds return is not a reasonable fare and I will not pay it.
 
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A S Leib

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This whole bull**** concept of advance tickets (and seat reservations) needs to go entirely, trains should not be like planes, they should be like cars (i.e. you can use it whenever you want without getting ripped off), as that is the only way of getting people out of their cars.

Between the expensive fares and the ridiculous "rules" that TOCs such as LNER have implemented, its no wonder people are being pushed back into their cars (and a few onto planes).

In my opinion, there should only be two types of tickets available for all flows - off peak (anytime after morning peak) and anytime (self explanatory), which would infinitely simplify ticketing on the railway. Off peak fares should "meet in the middle" between the current advance and off peak prices, which would mean the large majority of passengers would see a fare reduction, which would induce more train journeys.
I think that would push a lot of passengers onto flights or coaches for long-distance journeys, unless you're proposing that flexible tickets from e.g. London to Glasgow should be £100 return.

"Simplification" isn't necessarily a good thing, and I'd argue that advance fares are the simplest type of ticket possible (specified trains permitted to get rather than a group or subgroup of possibilities).

Scrapping seat reservations also seems poorly thought-out; how many passengera would willingly risk being without a seat for a four-hour journey when the current system allows for reservations to be made for free?
 

Bald Rick

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I will never buy an advance ticket or any of its variants such as 70 minute flex so I just avoid travelling to Scotland and the North of England. I live in the South of England and fortunately I have no need to travel to Scotland and the North of England and therefore travel with LNER. There are interesting places to visit in Scotland and the North of England but I will not visit them unless and until there are reasonably priced anytime or off peak fares on the trains to Scotland and the North of England. Four hundred pounds return is not a reasonable fare and I will not pay it.

You don’t have to pay £400 for a flexible return to Scotland.

Off peak return is £186.90 with Avanti (Euston to Edinburgh), £186 with Lumo (KX to Edinburgh), and obviously you can find flexible off peak fares from London to the north of England and Scotland quite widely.
 

181

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However I suspect close to 100% of LNER passengers (for instance) will be on Advances.

Possibly close to 100% of passengers making pre-planned leisure trips at not-too-busy times, but not
- people wanting to travel (and willing to pay) at busier times, who find that the Advances have sold out
- people who need flexibility of travel time (and possible of operator), e.g. a commuter who can't be sure when she'll get away from work
- some people who are making an LNER + other TOC journey for which no Advance exists (though some of these will buy separate Advances, or Advance on LNER plus whatever else)
- anyone who finds that the offpeak single (where still available) is only a couple of pounds more than the Advance, and thinks "I'm probably travelling on one particular train but for a few quid extra I'll take the flexibility".

These are just the categories that occur to me from personal experience. I suspect these and others I haven't thought of add up to a tidy amount of additional revenues for LNER
I have made 9 single journeys involving LNER in the past year; if I remember rightly, only one was on an Advance ticket and all the rest were on Off-Peaks (and my actual journey had an off-peak ticket available, with no need for workarounds like buying a ticket for a longer journey). The time in advance for which I knew in principle I was likely to be making a journey varied from several weeks or more down to a few days; the time at which I knew which train I wanted to get varied from a couple of weeks or so down to when I arrived at the station. In most if not all cases, by that time there were no Advances available, or at least none that were cheaper than the off-peak.

I really don't think so. Business travellers are, in my experience, able to schedule their meetings and are under pressure from their expenses departments to use the cheapest ticket - if I ever used something other than an Advance I would get a "please explain".

In contrast, most people travelling at their own expense, whether that is for a leisure activity or on personal business, do not know when they are going to travel, and in particular when they are going to return. There are as many reasons for this as there are people travelling - you may decide to spend longer, or less time, on a visit depending on the weather* - the football match you are watching may go to penalties - the country walk may take longer, or less time, than expected, or may be cut short by the weather - the trial in which you are a witness may take longer, or less time, than expected for you to be called - an emergency dash to a hospital bedside cannot be planned in advance, nor can you know when you will be able to return. Who is going to take the risk that there will be no affordable "advance" fares left by the time you know when you will be going home?

LNER's abolition of regulated walk-up fares is of dubious legality, and if allowed to continue (let alone extend to other routes) will mark the end of the walk up railway, and drive more and more people on to the roads.

* I have seen proposals to abolish off-peak fares on all journeys longer than 70 miles, which puts even a day trip from London to Margate out of reach.
I suspect that this change of habits by business travellers, and the resulting loss of revenue, may be at least partly why the railway industry feels the need to make life difficult for other passengers, in the hope that some of them can be nudged or forced into paying more.

But the evidence is that they aren’t? The LNER train I was on earlier was rammed, and they’re carrying more passengers than ever before, despite the changes to tickets

Most people (as I believe there was research done to show) just want to buy a ticket from A to B, and are happy to use a specific train as they would with an airline.
Did the research include people not travelling by train as well as those that do? It seems unlikely that people are falling over themselves to pay more money (as can happen if removal of off-peaks removes the effective cap on Advances) for tickets that are so high-risk if plans change (do they all even realise that if they are delayed on the way to the station they will have to pay over £200 for a new ticket from London to Edinburgh?). It seems more likely that high demand on LNER is not a result of the new fare structure, but rather the reason they can get away with it, if (for the time being at least) the niche market of people who can either commit to a specific train weeks in advance or pay higher fares is big enough to fill the trains.

I wonder what the reaction would be if there was a proposal to make long-distance car travel unaffordable for anyone who couldn't book their slot on the motorway weeks in advance.

Also, by enabling more passengers to travel by spreading demand more evenly, it also enables the railway to make more revenue, which (beleive it or not) helps keep fares lower than they might otherwise be, and specifically enables some passengers to travel for some bargain fares, who might otherwise not travel at all.
Advances as they have been used, to provide cheaper tickets for people prepared to reduce flexibility for a cheaper fare, probably are beneficial, but that's not the same as taking away the medium-priced flexible tickets that people have relied on for decades. Maybe the finances of the railway are such that it needs every penny it can get, and the loss of flexible long-distance travel will just have to be one of those things, like increased defence spending or the loss of defined benefit pensions, that we'll have to put up with in the modern world. But I'm not convinced that it's in the railways' long-term interests to impose upon themselves such a major competitive disadvantage compared with the flexibility of car travel.

You don’t have to pay £400 for a flexible return to Scotland.
And long may it remain so, but sadly there are pressures against it.
 

Dr Day

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It still feels like the industry doesn’t quite know what to do with the vast middle ground of travel between the more bus-like trips within urban areas, with relatively high frequencies and pay as you go type offers, and the more plane-like London-Scotland journeys where being tied to a train and variable yield managed fares probably do make sense.

The ‘plus or minus 70 minutes’ without penalty on long trunk legs (say over 2 hours on a single train) has merit in some cases as it allows earlier travel if connections go well, or later travel if they don’t. A lot of the issues with Advances could be resolved with pragmatic excess fares, and no-quibble acceptance on other trains the when things go wrong. Hopefully GBR with TfW, Merseyrail and everyone else isn’t in GBR can work together on this.
 

paul1609

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But take away the London commuter TOCs and the 8% will increase sharply for the rest.
GTRs revenue is roughly equivalent to LNER+AWC+1/2GWR so most people would discount Intercity revenue as not significant.
 

Starmill

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The other issue is that one can't get an advanced purchase ticket covering multiple TOCs in the former Network South East Area, except where it involves TOCs like Cross Country.

Try getting an advanced purchase ticket from Weymouth to Margate for example. You can get an advanced purchase from Weymouth to London and London to Margate but not as a through ticket.

I use those examples as they are long journeys, one of which even involves travel on HS1, a high speed line.
Unfortunately this is a very widespread problem. See Stafford - Newcastle or Stoke-on-Trent - Leeds as examples.

Off peak return is £186.90 with Avanti (Euston to Edinburgh), £186 with Lumo (KX to Edinburgh), and obviously you can find flexible off peak fares from London to the north of England and Scotland quite widely.
Both Avanti and Lumo offer only a tiny number of journeys per day. You receive very little choice over your times in exchange for your £190.
 
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infobleep

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I really don't think so. Business travellers are, in my experience, able to schedule their meetings and are under pressure from their expenses departments to use the cheapest ticket - if I ever used something other than an Advance I would get a "please explain".

In contrast, most people travelling at their own expense, whether that is for a leisure activity or on personal business, do not know when they are going to travel, and in particular when they are going to return. There are as many reasons for this as there are people travelling - you may decide to spend longer, or less time, on a visit depending on the weather* - the football match you are watching may go to penalties - the country walk may take longer, or less time, than expected, or may be cut short by the weather - the trial in which you are a witness may take longer, or less time, than expected for you to be called - an emergency dash to a hospital bedside cannot be planned in advance, nor can you know when you will be able to return. Who is going to take the risk that there will be no affordable "advance" fares left by the time you know when you will be going home?

LNER's abolition of regulated walk-up fares is of dubious legality, and if allowed to continue (let alone extend to other routes) will mark the end of the walk up railway, and drive more and more people on to the roads.

* I have seen proposals to abolish off-peak fares on all journeys longer than 70 miles, which puts even a day trip from London to Margate out of reach.
Whilst I don't agree with that LNER are doing, what makes it illegal? I do appreciate their is another thread on this but I don't have time to read all the posts to find the answer.
 

London Trains

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I think that would push a lot of passengers onto flights or coaches for long-distance journeys, unless you're proposing that flexible tickets from e.g. London to Glasgow should be £100 return.

"Simplification" isn't necessarily a good thing, and I'd argue that advance fares are the simplest type of ticket possible (specified trains permitted to get rather than a group or subgroup of possibilities).

Scrapping seat reservations also seems poorly thought-out; how many passengera would willingly risk being without a seat for a four-hour journey when the current system allows for reservations to be made for free?
Most advances from London to Glasgow are around the £150 mark, and that is what I would propose the off-peak fare should become. Personally I think this fare should be much lower, around £100 as you suggest, but the need for the railway to make a profit probably puts a stop to that.

Any reason why you think simplification isn't a good thing for passengers?
 
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infobleep

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If you have bought split tickets with each leg of the journey on a separate ticket then it is slightly more murky. I believe the consensus is that you are still making a single journey and the same rules as above would apply, but I don't know whether it has actually been tested in court.
I'm not aware of it being murky or needing the courts. My understanding was that it had been stated multiple tickesg were allowed to makeup one journey and if you are delayed then it still counts as one journey. Assuming of course one allows the official minimum connection times between trains.
 

TUC

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As if London commuter TOCs somehow don’t count…
No, but the market is very different to longer distance travel, or indeed general travel in other places. The very volume of London commuter passengers distorts the statistics in how large a share of the market Advance fares are elsewhere.
 

Bletchleyite

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But the evidence is that they aren’t? The LNER train I was on earlier was rammed, and they’re carrying more passengers than ever before, despite the changes to tickets

Most people (as I believe there was research done to show) just want to buy a ticket from A to B, and are happy to use a specific train as they would with an airline.

I suspect almost nobody buys a London to Edinburgh ticket on the day. However, I also suspect the results of that trial would be very different on e.g. London to Birmingham. They've clearly chosen the one to trial carefully.
 

TUC

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Some of this discussion does, like a number of others, appear to be rail enthusiasts saying that because they don't like being tied down to a particular train and are happy to pay more, they assume most other people think the same. Why? What's the evidence for that?
 

Bletchleyite

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Why would it need to? The trains are full and there is no more capacity.

Depends on what you consider to be the purpose of the railway. The artificial scarcity on the ECML is not a good thing, particularly not while 5 car trains throw capacity up the wall unnecessarily. See also XC.
 

A S Leib

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Most advances from London to Glasgow are around the £150 mark
Off-peak singles, splitting at Penrith (which shouldn't be necessary), are £122, and that amount is much higher than my own experience of London / Watford – Glasgow fares being closer to the £50 mark each way (if I hadn't been using a railcard). Admittedly I'm generally booking quite a few weeks in advance.
Any reason why you think simplification isn't a good thing for passengers?
I meant that that specific type of simplification isn't useful; you might not want to be tied to one specific train, but there's tonnes of passengers who are willing to be in order to afford to travel at all. I think it's the same issue as LNER's abolition of off-peak fares; removing cheaper options which had previously worked relatively well for most people.
 

signed

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Between the expensive fares and the ridiculous "rules" that TOCs such as LNER have implemented, its no wonder people are being pushed back into their cars (and a few onto planes).
I am of the opinion regular people do not care that much about flexibility (if they were, then LCCs would be much less popular), they only care about price.

For us, as rail enthusiasts, we may like/need the flexibility, but I doubt (and this is sad but true) that most care in the slightest.

Though, indeed the other part is absolutely true.
 

AlterEgo

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Depends on what you consider to be the purpose of the railway. The artificial scarcity on the ECML is not a good thing, particularly not while 5 car trains throw capacity up the wall unnecessarily. See also XC.
It is somewhat artificial scarcity but it is scarcity nonetheless. If XC and TPE had longer trains and LNER weren’t wasting so many 5 car sets we’d be in a different position.
 

A S Leib

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For us, as rail enthusiasts, we may like/need the flexibility, but I doubt (and this is sad but true) that most care in the slightest.
I suspect that a lot of passengers frequently don't know how much flexibility their ticket gives them even when they do pay for flexible tickets, even for clear ones like visiting York on the way from London to Edinburgh as well as less intuitive routes.
 

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I suspect that a lot of passengers frequently don't know how much flexibility their ticket gives them even when they do pay for flexible tickets, even for clear ones like visiting York on the way from London to Edinburgh as well as less intuitive routes.
I don't believe that that makes any difference.

Most travellers are price sensitive, they want to go from A to B, even if that means sticking to one train. I am saddend to say this, but us, rail enthusiasts, are a minority in the system.

People take the coach when it's a lot less comfortable just because it costs sometimes more than half as much.
FlixBus is non-refundable outside of vouchers, NX is not that flexible either.

People take Ouigo, Avlo, FlixTrain, Lumo because it's usually cheaper. Again those are inflexible.

There is a market for everyone, but if we want to get people off the cars and coaches onto the rails, pricing is the definitive mean to achieve it. Flexibility is a good thing to have, but 99% of people will choose the price over the flex.

I agree that flexibility is not well publicized, if it was, it would probably be different, but in what manner I don't know.

Simplification is a mask for massive price hikes, which hampers everything.
 
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Bald Rick

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Both Avanti and Lumo offer only a tiny number of journeys per day. You receive very little choice over your times in exchange for your £190.

But it is still a choice. And the poster suggesting they would not go to Scotland because they were limiting themselves to only buying flexible tickets, and did not want to pay nearly £400 with LNER, has that choice.
 

43066

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No, but the market is very different to longer distance travel, or indeed general travel in other places. The very volume of London commuter passengers distorts the statistics in how large a share of the market Advance fares are elsewhere.

But the majority of UK train journeys either take place in entirely within London and the south east, or begin or end there. Therefore you can’t sensibly discuss train travel in the UK without including London operators.

Some of this discussion does, like a number of others, appear to be rail enthusiasts saying that because they don't like being tied down to a particular train and are happy to pay more, they assume most other people think the same. Why? What's the evidence for that?

Surely the complaints on this board come mostly from enthusiasts, who want to do things like break journeys and have a niche use case. Most people are not enthusiasts and simply want to get from A to B. They would view a London - Scotland train as similar to a flight. The fare trial demonstrably hasn’t deterred significant numbers from using LNER, whose full trains are surely good evidence that people are embracing the new system.

For us, as rail enthusiasts, we may like/need the flexibility, but I doubt (and this is sad but true) that most care in the slightest.

Precisely.
 
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norbitonflyer

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Whilst I don't agree with that LNER are doing, what makes it illegal? I do appreciate their is another thread on this but I don't have time to read all the posts to find the answer.
Off peak fares are regulated, which means they are not allowed to be increased by more than RPI+. Abolishing them and leaving the Anytime as the only walk up fare with at least the same utility and availability is effectively an unauthorised price increase.

I suspect almost nobody buys a London to Edinburgh ticket on the day.
I have done so to Newcastle, and my wife has to Edinburgh. Both distress purchases, with no idea when we were coming back, as the Grim Reaper runs to his own timetable.
 
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43066

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Off peak fares are regulated, which means they are not allowed to be increased by more than RPI+. Abolishing them and leaving the Anytime as the only walk up fare with at least the same utility and availability is effectively an unauthorised price increase.

But you still haven’t really explained why it’s “of dubious legality.”
 
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Surely the complaints on this board come mostly from enthusiasts, who want to do things like break journeys and have a niche use case. Most people are not enthusiasts and simply want to get from A to B. They would view a London - Scotland train as similar to a flight. The fare trial demonstrably hasn’t deterred significant numbers from using LNER, whose full trains are surely good evidence that people are embracing the new system.
It applies to anyone who needs flexibility on the time of travel, including a friend who choose the car instead of the train for this reason. Most people who can book in advance choose to fly from the South of England to Scotland.
LNER passenger numbers are about the same as in 2019 when the following article states the average loading per train is 250 passengers which is only half full. From December 2025 LNER will run around 30 more trains each with 600 seats each day on the London-Newcastle-Edinburgh route. LNER will need to attract a lot more passengers to pay for these additional trains. They need to set the flexible London to Newcastle and Edinburgh fares at a level which travellers who need flexibility are prepared to pay. £200 for a single journey is too high, it is clearly designed to put people off buying. People are prepared to pay more for flexibility but not £200.
21st March 2019
with LNER having an average load factor of 250 passengers across the day
 

Tetchytyke

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They need to set the flexible London to Newcastle and Edinburgh fares at a level which travellers who need flexibility are prepared to pay. £200 for a single journey is too high, it is clearly designed to put people off buying. People are prepared to pay more for flexibility but not £200.
Yes, the Anytime ticket is priced to dissuade people from buying it, absolutely. It will be bought as a distress purchase but nothing more, and the implementation of on-the-day advances even removes that for most people.

Most people aren’t actually all that bothered about flexibility for long-distance journeys. The airlines don’t give you flexibility. Coaches don’t either.

The point of removing off-peak fares was to remove the ‘price cap’ it provided at busy times, especially Friday evening and Sunday afternoon.
 

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