Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[quantinghome]

Depends how deeply you studied Religious Studies at school.

I am aware of what indulgences are but can't see how they are relevant to obtaining reliable information on the effectiveness of vaccines.

 

[Ediswan]

I am aware of what indulgences are but can't see how they are relevant to obtaining reliable information on the effectiveness of vaccines.

I think the suggestion was the opposite. That by funding research you could, if the researchers were willing, get whatever results you wanted. Only @21C101 really knows what was meant.

 

[DustyBin]

With all due respect, an expert in public health vs the Prime Minister. If social contact is reduced before Christmas, less spread and less concern about Omicron variant. She’s not saying to isolate in households or have no contact with anyone until the end of March. Just a simple matter of fact statement that it would help keep numbers down and reduce spread. Boris might have a country to run but at what cost?

That's exactly the point though; Harries is an expert in public health and therefore has an extremely blinkered view. Boris has to consider the wider implications of Covid mitigation measures, and indeed the wider harms that result. This has been an issue throughout the pandemic in my opinion.

In regard to keeping the numbers down and reducing the spread, it's fairly clear at this point that it's not in our gift to do this without resorting to full lockdown, which I'm pleased to say is completely off the table (apparently).

 

[MikeWM]

Isn't there something rather odd about the spread of cases of 'omicron' found so far?

Barnet – 2
Bexley – 1
Brentwood – 1
Buckinghamshire – 1
Camden – 2
Haringey – 1
Lancaster – 1
Lewisham – 2
Liverpool – 1
Newham - 1
North Norfolk – 1
Nottingham – 1
South Cambridgeshire – 1
Sutton – 1
Three Rivers – 1
Wandsworth – 1
Westminster - 3

Would we really expect a 'super-spreading' virus to have spread so widely and so quickly - but not have a sizable 'cluster' anywhere? Seems rather odd to me.

 

[21C101]

Harries is an expert in public health and therefore has an extremely blinkered view. Boris has to consider the wider implications of Covid mitigation measures, and indeed the wider harms that result. This has been an issue throughout the pandemic in my opinion.

Indeed, this is the core of the problem with Technocratic regimes.

An expert is very aware of the hazards and risks in that particular field but has little knowledge of the consequential hazards that go beyond their area of expertise, that their mitigation will result in.

So taking a crude example. A road traffic expert informs the prime minister that he can save 2,000 lives a year by making the national speed limit 5mph even on motorways with speed governors.

That expert is quite right but only a fool would take their advice without considering what knock on consequences this would cause and how many deaths they cause. And only a fool would not take the advice of other dissenting experts and move to suppress their views in the media and demonise them.

But unfortunately with Covid our government did do all the things only a fool would do, and are still at it.

 

[DustyBin]

Indeed, this is the core of the problem with Technocratic regimes.

An expert is very aware of the hazards and risks in that particular field but has little knowledge of the consequential hazards that go beyond their area of expertise, that their mitigation will result in.

So taking a crude example. A road traffic expert informs the prime minister that he can save 2,000 lives a year by making the national speed limit 5mph even on motorways with speed governors.

That expert is quite right but only a fool would take their advice without considering what knock on consequences this would cause and how many deaths they cause. And only a fool would not take the advice of other dissenting experts and move to suppress their views in the media and demonise them.

But unfortunately with Covid our government did do all the things only a fool would do, and are still at it.

Quite.

I previously used the (slightly amusing) analogy of putting an enthusiast, in this case me, in charge of rolling stock diagrams (with free reign to do as I pleased). 321s from Kings Cross to Edinburgh anybody?

 

[52290]

Quite.

I previously used the (slightly amusing) analogy of putting an enthusiast, in this case me, in charge of rolling stock diagrams (with free reign to do as I pleased). 321s from Kings Cross to Edinburgh anybody?

A4's surely!

 

[21C101]

Quite.

I previously used the (slightly amusing) analogy of putting an enthusiast, in this case me, in charge of rolling stock diagrams (with free reign to do as I pleased). 321s from Kings Cross to Edinburgh anybody?

Like it.

I think another good analogy is BR putting a steam traction expert in charge of locomotive policy on a newly nationalised railway, which resulted in a fortune being wasted on riddling the network with brand new Victorian masterpieces that in many cases had less than a decade of service; when the Southern had already built prototype intercity diesel locos that were hauling crack expresses from Waterloo to Exeter and back, with two round trips a day and which could have gone straight into large scale roll out.

 

[Bikeman78]

If you have a spare hour or so, have a read through this:

Public Health - Hansard - UK Parliament

Hansard record of the item : 'Public Health' on Tuesday 30 November 2021.

hansard.parliament.uk

It's the parliamentary debate this afternoon over the new regulations. It seems that once again the true opposition is from within the Conservative Party.

What a depressing read. It's clear that some people in parliament don't want this to end. The constant talk of vaccine dodging variants and endless testing. The reality is that Covid is everywhere. People need to decide for themselves what they are comfortable with.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What a depressing read. It's clear that some people in parliament don't want this to end. The constant talk of vaccine dodging variants and endless testing. The reality is that Covid is everywhere. People need to decide for themselves what they are comfortable with.

Can you bring to mind any other country that allows people to decide for themselves over the matter in question?

 

[Bikeman78]

Can you bring to mind any other country that allows people to decide for themselves over the matter in question?

No I don't think I can. But my point stands. Are we going to bring out the masks and the tests, and the threat of further restrictions, every time a new variant is discovered? I genuinely don't see what is the objective any more. There's no point trying to save the NHS because it's already broken. It was bad enough trying to see a GP before Covid. There are millions of people on waiting lists. If Covid vanished tomorrow it would still take years to get through that backlog.

 

[asw22]

I think we all really really hope that the current (or fewer) measures are enough to keep the current steady slight decline in hospital cases going.

Omicron has ?50? mutations, and I would think that this must have mutated over a few generations of transmission (each generation is around 7 to 14 days). Combine this with the amount of travel that has occurred, I would not be surprised if the actual number of cases in the UK is hundreds or thousands or even higher, and its reported symptoms of fatigue and high heart rates could be confused for something else like stress, meaning that it is weaker than original covid but undetected.

I also hope that sections of the population / media / government can recover from Stockholm syndrome and risk manage covid in context, as I feel that recent events in UK and Europe are more panic driven.

 

[ivorytoast28]

Isn't there something rather odd about the spread of cases of 'omicron' found so far?

Barnet – 2
Bexley – 1
Brentwood – 1
Buckinghamshire – 1
Camden – 2
Haringey – 1
Lancaster – 1
Lewisham – 2
Liverpool – 1
Newham - 1
North Norfolk – 1
Nottingham – 1
South Cambridgeshire – 1
Sutton – 1
Three Rivers – 1
Wandsworth – 1
Westminster - 3

Would we really expect a 'super-spreading' virus to have spread so widely and so quickly - but not have a sizable 'cluster' anywhere? Seems rather odd to me.

Seems like good news then? It's probably been here and everywhere ages but doesn't really get serious enough for most people to realise and get a PCR test.

What a depressing read. It's clear that some people in parliament don't want this to end. The constant talk of vaccine dodging variants and endless testing. The reality is that Covid is everywhere. People need to decide for themselves what they are comfortable with.

The travel restrictions are what is most frustrating, it feels like we still can't go anywhere without the threat of them suddenly being put on the red list and being to fork out some unaffordable amount for quarantine hotels over a "new variant" that could be harmless. I've no issue with spread reduction small measures but it is all over the world at this point, let's stop kidding ourselves, we can't contain anything to a geographic area

 

[Cdd89]

it feels like we still can't go anywhere without the threat of them suddenly being put on the red list and being to fork out some unaffordable amount for quarantine hotels over a "new variant" that could be harmless

I am grateful to be an EU national of a country which has done right by its citizens, even for returning from South Africa. Which is actually most of them, to be fair.

Based on past behaviour, I don’t think my UK passport guarantees that. I particularly didn’t enjoy the casual leaks and threats aimed at me whilst abroad last Feb.

 

[yorkie]

With all due respect, an expert in public health vs the Prime Minister. If social contact is reduced before Christmas, less spread and less concern about Omicron variant. She’s not saying to isolate in households or have no contact with anyone until the end of March. Just a simple matter of fact statement that it would help keep numbers down and reduce spread. Boris might have a country to run but at what cost?

How long should we bring back furlough for, what do you estimate the cost to be, and how do you propose we pay for it?

Other experts in public health take a more holistic approach than Harries and recognise the importance of mental health and our livelihoods.

It is interesting that people such as yourself are keen to play down effectiveness of vaccines, exaggerate the effectiveness of lockdown measures and other restrictions, dismiss the views of experts who take a more pragmatic approach considering the bigger picture and endorse the views of experts who call for more restrictions.

But there is no evidence this variant voids the effectiveness of vaccines and no evidence this variant is anything other than an entirely expected evolution of the virus in a manner consistent with the way other HCoVs have evolved to live alongside humans. If you think you have any evidence to the contrary, feel free to cite it...

I've debunked your claims before and I am happy to keep debunking them indefinitely.

 

[Towers]

More emerging data:

Covid: Trigger of rare blood clots with AstraZeneca jab found by scientists​

Covid: Trigger of rare blood clots with AstraZeneca jab found by scientists

Researchers in Cardiff and the US work out how the Covid jab may be linked to the extremely rare clots.

www.bbc.co.uk

As I said previously, we are at an early stage with regards to these vaccines. A year or so after they first hailed them as the solution to all of this, the scientists are still making discoveries about the reason that this particular version has killed people. People who, in some cases, were at minimal risk from serious Covid illness. The scientists will of course reinforce how "rare" these lethal side effects are, but so also are deaths from Covid in the demographics of some of the victims here. And, of course, there are no figures for those who have succumbed to this vaccine (nor, probably will there ever be), unlike the multitude of stats showing that those dying from Covid in their 30s and 40s are a tiny, tiny percentage.

Some may well feel that the risk of Covid outweighs any risk from vaccination, be it the first, or the second, third, fourth or 20th shot, others the opposite. Both are perfectly reasonable viewpoints, but these issues do deserve far more recognition in the area of public discussion than they have received so far, IMHO. Presumably there will be thousands of people having a dose of AstraZeneca put into their arms today, I wonder how many of them have had the opportunity to make a genuine apparaisal of that balance of risk. Any nation considering forcing needles into folks arms need to be choosing their vaccines very carefully.

 

[GC class B1]

How long should we bring back furlough for, what do you estimate the cost to be, and how do you propose we pay for it?

Other experts in public health take a more holistic approach than Harries and recognise the importance of mental health and our livelihoods.

It is interesting that people such as yourself are keen to play down effectiveness of vaccines, exaggerate the effectiveness of lockdown measures and other restrictions, dismiss the views of experts who take a more pragmatic approach considering the bigger picture and endorse the views of experts who call for more restrictions.

But there is no evidence this variant voids the effectiveness of vaccines and no evidence this variant is anything other than an entirely expected evolution of the virus in a manner consistent with the way other HCoVs have evolved to live alongside humans. If you think you have any evidence to the contrary, feel free to cite it...

I've debunked your claims before and I am happy to keep debunking them indefinitely.

I have been following this and similar threads for some time. It appears to some extent to have polarised into two opposing groups, namely the ‘we have to react to COVID as far as reasonable group‘ and the ‘live with and accept the consequences group’. I realise that a pragmatic middle course is what the government have attempted to achieve and this is a difficult balance.

As I respect that you have you have done much research and hold strong views could you offer your opinion on the following points that are in my mind.

1. Were the restrictions imposed last year I.e. lockdown and social distancing necessary to save lives without any vaccine or immunity
2. There are still deaths being attributed to COVID, do we know to whether they are in effect the level normally expected at this time of year and if not should we accept them in the greater good. Do you have a view on whether these are actually other causes and not Covid.
3. do you know whether any risk assessment have been carried out e.g. by Sage or the government comparing the risk of COVID after mass vaccination against the risks to poor mental health and the negative effects on society in general.

I am exempt from wearing a face mask and have been pinged as a contact twice since being double vaccinated. On both occasions a lateral flow test has been negative, so this has made me more confident.

I am reassured by your views and although initially sceptical of face coverings for the reasons expressed in this thread, I kept seeing evidence in apparently credible sources that they do have some impact In reducing transmission. I would like someone to make clear statement what is really the case but don’t expect this from the government. I believe we can and must get on with life as normal now or we never will.

 

[yorksrob]

One potential sting in the tail of the current rules was pointed out to me by a friend yesterday. The current rules state that if you're a contact of someone who may have been infected with the omacron variant, you have to self isolate for the full ten days.

Since they're unlikely to have the capacity to test all cases for the new variant, does it mean that everyone who's contacted by track and trace will be required to self isolate for ten days in case their contact may have had the varient ?

My friends employer seems to think so and has relaxed their return to the office policy accordingly.

 

[Towers]

How long should we bring back furlough for, what do you estimate the cost to be, and how do you propose we pay for it?

Other experts in public health take a more holistic approach than Harries and recognise the importance of mental health and our livelihoods.

It is interesting that people such as yourself are keen to play down effectiveness of vaccines, exaggerate the effectiveness of lockdown measures and other restrictions, dismiss the views of experts who take a more pragmatic approach considering the bigger picture and endorse the views of experts who call for more restrictions.

But there is no evidence this variant voids the effectiveness of vaccines and no evidence this variant is anything other than an entirely expected evolution of the virus in a manner consistent with the way other HCoVs have evolved to live alongside humans. If you think you have any evidence to the contrary, feel free to cite it...

I've debunked your claims before and I am happy to keep debunking them indefinitely.

I agree, furlough 2 would be a disaster, please no!

Our children and grandchildren will be living alongside Covid-19. At some point between now and those children's adulthoods, the world needs to get back onto its feet and get on with it. The outlook isn't going to change, this thing will keep coming back. Most in our society who want to be vaccinated now have been, and I suspect that most of us would be happy to receive an annual jab as per the flu jab, if that is shown to be a prudent move. There really is little else that we can do now; hiding in fear due to the science of "might, could, maybe", jabbing everybody every five minutes in a blind panic, simply cannot be the future. We have to crack on!

 

[Watershed]

One potential sting in the tail of the current rules was pointed out to me by a friend yesterday. The current rules state that if you're a contact of someone who may have been infected with the omacron variant, you have to self isolate for the full ten days.

Since they're unlikely to have the capacity to test all cases for the new variant, does it mean that everyone who's contacted by track and trace will be required to self isolate for ten days in case their contact may have had the varient ?

My friends employer seems to think so and has relaxed their return to the office policy accordingly.

All positive tests will be sequenced for the Omicron variant, I'd have thought.

 

[yorksrob]

All positive tests will be sequenced for the Omicron variant, I'd have thought.

I would have thought so initially.

I wonder if anyone has asked the question.

 

[DelayRepay]

All positive tests will be sequenced for the Omicron variant, I'd have thought.

I believe that a standard PCR test can distinguish between Omicorn and Delta without the need for further sequencing. So they will instruct to isolate based on the PCR result rather than waiting for sequencing. Given all the investment in labs last year, I would hope there's sufficient capacity to turn the PCR tests round quickly.

 

[chris11256]

From what I can gether having a S Gene dropout can hint it's Omicron, but isn't a gurantee. The sample does need to be sequenced to find out whether it's 100% Omicron.

 

[DelayRepay]

From what I can gether having a S Gene dropout can hint it's Omicron, but isn't a gurantee. The sample does need to be sequenced to find out whether it's 100% Omicron.

I think that's true. I read (somewhere) that Omicron is similar to Alpha in that respect. But as the dominant strain in the UK is Delta, I think the approach is that if there is an S Gene dropout, it's assumed to be Omicron.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think that's true. I read (somewhere) that Omicron is similar to Alpha in that respect. But as the dominant strain in the UK is Delta, I think the approach is that if there is an S Gene dropout, it's assumed to be Omicron.

That doesn't sound very scientific, but very political...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Our children and grandchildren will be living alongside Covid-19. At some point between now and those children's adulthoods, the world needs to get back onto its feet and get on with it. The outlook isn't going to change, this thing will keep coming back. Most in our society who want to be vaccinated now have been, and I suspect that most of us would be happy to receive an annual jab as per the flu jab, if that is shown to be a prudent move. There really is little else that we can do now; hiding in fear due to the science of "might, could, maybe", jabbing everybody every five minutes in a blind panic, simply cannot be the future. We have to crack on!

Whilst our understanding of science and how to apply it has transformed the human race over the last 200 years its now at a point where I question whether we actual think we know too much and are over employing it in a desire to have and answer for everything and thus imposing a straight jacket round their thinking. Politicians pretty well across the Western world have largely lost the ability to take a holistic view of all the issues so whilst im no fan of Boris he at least trying to tread a fine path through competing interests.

Anyhow on this occasion im taking comfort in WHO's pretty measured approach with their Covid experts being pretty reassuring that vaccines remain responsive and impact being potentially mild. The cynic in me remains convinced that WHO are getting peeved off with the West failure to support the poorer nations and this was hyped up to allow it to get that point across. I for one would be more than happy to donate my booster shot to Covax and also I can see the NHS being forced to drop everything else so the govt can achieve its goal of pushing the booster in 10m+ people over the next 8 weeks and then taking credit for that and not owning the bigger problem they will have created for the NHS.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I wonder why the fact that new viruses can appear seems strange to people. Evolution is not just confined to certain species.

 

[Towers]

Anyhow on this occasion im taking comfort in WHO's pretty measured approach with their Covid experts being pretty reassuring that vaccines remain responsive and impact being potentially mild. The cynic in me remains convinced that WHO are getting peeved off with the West failure to support the poorer nations and this was hyped up to allow it to get that point across. I for one would be more than happy to donate my booster shot to Covax and also I can see the NHS being forced to drop everything else so the govt can achieve its goal of pushing the booster in 10m+ people over the next 8 weeks and then taking credit for that and not owning the bigger problem they will have created for the NHS.

I completely agree!

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Indeed, this is the core of the problem with Technocratic regimes.

An expert is very aware of the hazards and risks in that particular field but has little knowledge of the consequential hazards that go beyond their area of expertise, that their mitigation will result in.

So taking a crude example. A road traffic expert informs the prime minister that he can save 2,000 lives a year by making the national speed limit 5mph even on motorways with speed governors.

That expert is quite right but only a fool would take their advice without considering what knock on consequences this would cause and how many deaths they cause. And only a fool would not take the advice of other dissenting experts and move to suppress their views in the media and demonise them.

But unfortunately with Covid our government did do all the things only a fool would do, and are still at it.

Many threads ago, it was suggested that Mrs Thatcher would have taken a much firmer line with the scientific advice. Probing, testing, questioning, expecting properly evidenced answers from those putting themselves forwards as the experts. I fear Mr Johnson is far too much of an irresponsible loose cannon to bother with such things as facts and evidence based decision making.

What a depressing read. It's clear that some people in parliament don't want this to end. The constant talk of vaccine dodging variants and endless testing. The reality is that Covid is everywhere. People need to decide for themselves what they are comfortable with.

People can only decide what they are comfortable with if they are given accurate, comprehensive and timely information about the risks they face (or don't face, much at all, actually). We still seem to be in a phase of scaring everyone s**tless whilst at the same time telling them it's OK to do things to keep the economy going.

We have now had up to 24 months of this virus and associated NPI's [Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention (infectious disease control strategy)]. It is time the 'experts' came up with a realistic strategy the public can understand and buy into. One size fits all never was appropriate, which is why the health person in Scotland, Professor Panzoff, Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson Senior and so many others devised their own interpretation of the rules to suit themselves. Without a clear stategy going forwards people will continue guessing blind based on heresay and gut-feeling.

Just what are the risks faced by an individual;
going to to a supermarket at a quiet time,
going to the same supermarket at a busy time,
doing those things with or without a facecloth, a level 1, 2 or 3 mask?

ditto taking a quiet/busy train / bus / underground.
ditto sitting at a table/standing at the bar in a pub with known contacts or a constant mix of complete strangers.

The risk of crossing a road varies considerable depending upon the fleet-footed nature of the individual, the physical characteristics of the road and the volume of traffic. So it is with Coronabobs.

Returning to the subject of Greece and compulsory vaccination - a 60 year goat-herder, living pretty much self-sufficiently halfway up a mountain has rather a different risk profile to a 60 year old cosmopolitan living the highlife in crowded Athens. Treating each as being exactly the same is simply ridiculous.

 

[21C101]

Returning to the subject of Greece and compulsory vaccination - a 60 year goat-herder, living pretty much self-sufficiently halfway up a mountain has rather a different risk profile to a 60 year old cosmopolitan living the highlife in crowded Athens. Treating each as being exactly the same is simply ridiculous.

That touches on one of the roots of the culture wars in most western countries.

A large and growing divide in culture and values between those who live in large cities and those who don't.