Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Silver Cobra]

My mental health has really not been in a great place since all of this ordeal with Omicron kicked off a week or two ago. To the point that I nearly had a complete breakdown at work today, and am now, with the advice of work, looking to see Occupational Health to discuss my mental health situation. I won't elaborate exactly what my mind has been going through recently, but I will say it's been very dark at times.

On another note, I've just booked my booster vaccination. As much as my nearest vaccination centre at Chicksands recently re-opened, as my Mum had her booster there 10 days ago, it wasn't available for me to select, so I'm heading to nearby Letchworth for it. Though my appointment won't be until 6th January, so I won't be meeting Boris' target of having it done before the end of the month (the centre in Letchworth only had limited appointments tomorrow and Wednesday, otherwise no further appointments available until January; as I'm working both days, no chance I can attend either).

 

[Yew]

Beginning of a screeching Mail U-Turn?

I wonder if, given that printed newspapers are disproportionally bought by the elderly, whether they have got the last weeks circulation fugures and realised that they have scared half their readers so much they are now hiding in the cupboard under the stairs at home instead of going to the Newsagent snd buying their Mail?

Super-spreader party shows jabbed elderly may get 'cold' from Omicron

Most partygoers at a 60th birthday bash in Somerset got more have now tested positive for the new super mutant Covid variant Omicron but luckily they only have mild, 'cold-like' symptoms an expert says.

www.dailymail.co.uk

TWO jabs should still slash risk of dying from Omicron by 84%

The estimates were presented in modelling by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) on Saturday and are based on lab studies looking at antibodies.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Cor, those are pretty good!

 

[eastdyke]

As is usual in the UK, South Africa inc Gauteng reported case numbers are normally lower on Sundays/Mondays.

But not today. Gauteng cases reported today [for yesterday]:
Sunday [12th]: 16716 ..... the highest number reported in any one day for the whole pandemic.

I have to say that I certainly didn't see that coming ..... perhaps there have been reporting issues over the past few days?
Tomorrow/Tuesday may enable me to make more sense of it.

Coronavirus South Africa Overview | Covid-19 South Africa

This site serves as a monitoring tool for the development of the coronavirus in South Africa.

www.covid19sa.org

This is getting more complicated.
Yesterday's 'high' reported figures have been amended downwards to a figure more like the one that I was expecting. This is notwithstanding the explanations given in the links kindly provided by @yorkie and @Chris125 .

The reported figures in the published data today are:

[Revised] Sunday [12th]: 7488 [was yesterday reported as 16716]
Monday [13th]: 6216

Coronavirus South Africa Overview | Covid-19 South Africa

This site serves as a monitoring tool for the development of the coronavirus in South Africa.

www.covid19sa.org

As usual the reported figures are a day in arrears and both those quoted have the usual weekend caveats.

I have yet to do the promised 7 day averages and may not get time to do them before my return to base on Thursday evening.

Nonetheless the numbers [assuming that they stick this time] should be seen as highly encouraging in the light of the predicted 'exponential increase'.

 

[takno]

My mental health has really not been in a great place since all of this ordeal with Omicron kicked off a week or two ago. To the point that I nearly had a complete breakdown at work today, and am now, with the advice of work, looking to see Occupational Health to discuss my mental health situation. I won't elaborate exactly what my mind has been going through recently, but I will say it's been very dark at times.

On another note, I've just booked my booster vaccination. As much as my nearest vaccination centre at Chicksands recently re-opened, as my Mum had her booster there 10 days ago, it wasn't available for me to select, so I'm heading to nearby Letchworth for it. Though my appointment won't be until 6th January, so I won't be meeting Boris' target of having it done before the end of the month (the centre in Letchworth only had limited appointments tomorrow and Wednesday, otherwise no further appointments available until January; as I'm working both days, no chance I can attend either).

I can understand your concern, but looking after yourself is key at this time. Talking to somebody is important, and hopefully will help you get some perspective on the situation. People are being encouraged to worry, and may quite naturally be furious with our leaders, but the medical risks are small, and the economic cost is stupid but not catastrophic. We just have to hope for the best on lockdowns, but there is no sign the public will accept them this time.

You've done your best on the vaccinations, and nobody will expect you to get it done any earlier than that. You are extremely unlikely to be risking any significant ill health in the next few weeks while you wait.

I hope you are able to switch off from the news (and probably this thread), and just distract yourself as best you can with TV, or whatever will allow you disconnect a bit from the madness

 

[21C101]

Cor, those are pretty good!

And now they have added this too:

Did Britain's 'first Omicron death' die FROM the Covid variant or WITH it? Professor slams government's 'lack of transparency' and says No10 is causing 'unnecessary alarm' - adding: 'The patient could have been hit by a bus'

A lack of transparency over the UK's first Omicron death prompted fury today, as a doctor told the Government to release more details to stop 'unnecessary alarm'.

Fury over lack of transparency on UK's first Omicron death

The mystery over the UK's, first Omicron death's vaccination status, age, and if the virus was the leading cause of death is creating 'unnecessary alarm', an expert has said, calling for more details.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[GC class B1]

I don’t know whether this is correct. Is it possbile that if say 50% pf the population get omicron in the next 28 days, as the government seem to be suggesting if it expands exponentially, then around 50% of the normal daily deaths would be ‘with Covid’. This would be alarming to most people who do not understand statistics although completely irrelevant to the risk. This is scaremonger in the extreme.

 

[brad465]

The list of believed Tory rebels has now increased to 74, up from 65 over the weekend. It's possible that, if Corbyn and other similarly minded opposition MPs defy the whip and vote against, the overall rebel count may break 100.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

The list of believed Tory rebels has now increased to 74, up from 65 over the weekend. It's possible that, if Corbyn and other similarly minded opposition MPs defy the whip and vote against, the overall rebel count may break 100.

Corbyn doesn’t have the Labour whip after he was hounded out by the Blue Labour mob.

I suspect large numbers of Labour abstentions (eg 30-50). DUP to vote against.

Looks like a few resignations too.

Hopefully the beginning of the end of the Johnson rule.

 

[Bikeman78]

They can still call you if someone you know gives them your details after they test positive.
Or of course, if you know you have been in close contact with someone who has told you they have tested positive.

And no not everyone has deleted it. Personally I'd much rather know about it before I go potentially spreading it around (especially relevant as people visit elderly relatives over the next few weeks). Especially as the app isn't viewed legally as the same as a contact from track and trace themselves - I can use my own judgements based on the day the "close contact" took place to work out where it is likely to have been and what the risk is (e.g. if I was at a gig that day then maybe its worth doing some tests - if I was just popping to the shop then maybe not).

I had the app for just over a year. It only went off twice, both times in the summer a few weeks apart. So either hardly anyone had the app or the chances of being near an infected person on a train or in a shop/pub are quite remote.

 

[NorthOxonian]

The list of believed Tory rebels has now increased to 74, up from 65 over the weekend. It's possible that, if Corbyn and other similarly minded opposition MPs defy the whip and vote against, the overall rebel count may break 100.

Alistair Carmichael has said that the Lib Dems oppose the measures and as such their 12 MPs should vote against - so potentially only 14 more MPs would have to vote against to enter three figures.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The list of believed Tory rebels has now increased to 74, up from 65 over the weekend. It's possible that, if Corbyn and other similarly minded opposition MPs defy the whip and vote against, the overall rebel count may break 100.

Newsnight saying could be upto 100 rebels although many will abstain

 

[Jonny]

I'm starting to loose it. I'm not a social animal and for the first lockdown I was fine making jokes about being an introvert and not impacted...

Now I'm just dreading each day and whatever new crap is going to be spouted today and how I'm meant to cope with my life consisting of driving empty trains concerned about the existential crisis facing my industry and sitting at home in a small flat with no outdoor space or things to do. I can't do it again.

Personally I'm really starting to get very angry with how two generations (Millennials and Gen Z) and seemingly now being forced to give up years of our lives to protect the Baby Boomers. As if pulling up the economic ladder behind them and trashing the environment wasn't enough...

I don't blame you, I consider myself introverted as well but avoiding people indefinitely is not a good thing.

I think there’s some doubt over how the South Africa data applies to us — we have a fatter and older population than they have.

I do think that the advice should have been rather more nuanced than it is. WFH advised for CEV households only, rather than everyone. There doesn’t seem to be any distinction made for those most vulnerable this time around.

That is debatable, we shall see. It will also be interesting to see how it reacts with the British population and its vaccines.

This is just descending into mass hysteria now. Lateral Flow tests are the new toilet rolls.

Especially if you need evidence of one to get into a venue.

Am I the only one that has never taken a test?

Nope, that makes at least two of us.

I haven't seen any information about that one death, but it was announced as with, not from.

It will be portrayed as being from omicron - that is standard yellow journalism.

Are we taking bets yet on when they're going announce that their 'passports' will begin to apply everywhere?

Probably once masks are deemed to have failed, hence the low minimum spec in law - I would go for some time in January.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

This is just descending into mass hysteria now. Lateral Flow tests are the new toilet rolls.

I don't mind twizzing the swab on a stick around the top of both my nostrils, but I am blowed if I am expected to twiz one around up my bum...

 

[brad465]

If this 200,000 Omicron cases a day estimate is true, then it won't take long for it to burn through enough of the population to quickly peak and drop off again. We are also approaching peak virus season, so any fall in infections in January will likely be normal if rates are already very high.

 

[bramling]

If this 200,000 Omicron cases a day estimate is true, then it won't take long for it to burn through enough of the population to quickly peak and drop off again. We are also approaching peak virus season, so any fall in infections in January will likely be normal if rates are already very high.

Meanwhile how many planned NHS interventions will be cancelled and how many GP consultations won’t happen? We really might as well rename it the National Covid Service now.

 

[brad465]

Meanwhile how many planned NHS interventions will be cancelled and how many GP consultations won’t happen? We really might as well rename it the National Covid Service now.

Yes I'd be very worried if I suddenly needed medical attention in the next month, and probably rest of the winter as well at least, because of all the booster demand there now is.

Does anyone know if these antiviral treatments are now being deployed in hospitals, and what the average hospital stay is at the moment compared to last winter? If stay lengths have dropped, in particular because of new treatments, then of course the prospect of being overwhelmed reduces.

 

[bramling]

Yes I'd be very worried if I suddenly needed medical attention in the next month, and probably rest of the winter as well at least, because of all the booster demand there now is.

Does anyone know if these antiviral treatments are now being deployed in hospitals, and what the average hospital stay is at the moment compared to last winter? If stay lengths have dropped, in particular because of new treatments, then of course the prospect of being overwhelmed reduces.

The front door to the NHS is well and truly barricaded shut now. If you try to book a GP appointment then you will get fobbed off. Go to A&E and it will be a wait of several hours. And phone for an ambulance and it will take several hours to turn up. Meanwhile we’re in full-on NHS worship.

This is possibly the biggest scandal of this whole affair. It would be an ideal topic for Starmer to take up.

If it turns out that Omicron is mild, this reaction could have cost many lives.

 

[brad465]

I do feel sorry for both the person who's died with the Omicron variant and their relatives, not just because of their death, but because Johnson appears to have tried to capitalise on it for his own benefit (through distractions from his own mess and trying to regain authority). I accept maybe not everyone would think this, but if that death was me or someone else in my family, I'd rather Johnson, or someone else in Government, doesn't make any fuss about it.

 

[duncanp]

If this 200,000 Omicron cases a day estimate is true, then it won't take long for it to burn through enough of the population to quickly peak and drop off again. We are also approaching peak virus season, so any fall in infections in January will likely be normal if rates are already very high.

This is very true and is what gives me hope that we might be able to avoid Plan C, or at least Plan C will only be in Place for a matter of weeks.

If you assume 200,000 infections a day and a doubling time of two days, then Omicron will have burnt through the population by Boxing Day. In practice it is likely to be a bit later than that, but by early in the new year, when Boris Johnson is reportedly going to decide on whether to implement Plan C, the Omicron wave should be slowing down, and we will have more information on hospitalisation and death rates.

All this willy waving from the government about Plan D, with pubs and restaurants being closed, is designed to frighten MPs into voting for Plan B later today.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Let us now wait the short few hours until the result of the actually taken vote is taken, then we will see what recent "warnings of impending doom" have had upon certain Members of Parliament.

The Government is indeed most certainly not blame-free with their forecasts of doom, does it does seem that the armchair-critics are just as bad in terms of their speculative "what if" speculations.

 

[Jonny]

This is very true and is what gives me hope that we might be able to avoid Plan C, or at least Plan C will only be in Place for a matter of weeks.

If you assume 200,000 infections a day and a doubling time of two days, then Omicron will have burnt through the population by Boxing Day. In practice it is likely to be a bit later than that, but by early in the new year, when Boris Johnson is reportedly going to decide on whether to implement Plan C, the Omicron wave should be slowing down, and we will have more information on hospitalisation and death rates.

All this willy waving from the government about Plan D, with pubs and restaurants being closed, is designed to frighten MPs into voting for Plan B later today.

Plan C is unlikely to go ahead because of the lack of a "furlough pot", if you will; the lack of such provision makes it more awkward. I think it is an empty threat.

 

[Eyersey468]

Plan C is unlikely to go ahead because of the lack of a "furlough pot", if you will; the lack of such provision makes it more awkward. I think it is an empty threat.

I wouldn’t put it past this government to try and implement it, nothing would surprise me any more

 

[Jonny]

I wouldn’t put it past this government to try and implement it, nothing would surprise me any more

It could go either way - but I expect normal service to return one way or the other.

Then again, I haven't had the vaccine and nor have I had anything from the NHS about it since about August (if memory serves, maybe July or September), and it didn't seem urgent so I am wondering how much of it is for show, since if it was so bad they would be trying to get in contact again. I would have thought that they would be ramping up personal communications if it was so bad.

 

[yorksrob]

This is very true and is what gives me hope that we might be able to avoid Plan C, or at least Plan C will only be in Place for a matter of weeks.

Assuming that they don't decide to wait a month or two "just in case" like last time. "Dates, not data" when it comes to removing restrictions remember.

 

[GC class B1]

Has anyone else realised that the government actions that are being sold to us as being necessary to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed will do exactly that. Cancelling anything except COVID jabs will cause many deaths as the NHS have declared they cannot cope with the demand for boosters. This is madness.

 

[duncanp]

Assuming that they don't decide to wait a month or two "just in case" like last time. "Dates, not data" when it comes to removing restrictions remember.

I think the size of the Conservative rebellion tonight, plus the result of the North Shropshire by election, will serve as a warning to Boris Johnson that he can't just take his own MPs for granted, nor can he count on the automatic support of Conservative voters.

You may find that, if Boris tries to go for Plan C in the new year, he is forced by his own backbenchers to outline a roadmap for the removal of restrictions (ie. conditions and dates) as a prerequisite for their support.

It is not within the bounds of possibility that Labour and the SNP may pull the rug from under Boris and vote against Plan C in the hope of a government defeat, which would trigger a confidence vote in parliament.

My guess is that Boris Johnson will try for Plan C in the new year, but that it will be modified in its scope and duration in order to placate his own MPs.

 

[Class 33]

You may find that, if Boris tries to go for Plan C in the new year, he is forced by his own backbenchers to outline a roadmap for the removal of restrictions (ie. conditions and dates) as a prerequisite for their support.

The problem is with a "Roadmap" is that could drag on for months again. Look how long it took to progress with the last one. Should have been 4 and a half months, but turned out to be 5 and a half months due to the final stage being delayed by a month. We really don't need this happening all over again with restrictions dragging on for months on end again.

 

[asw22]

Has anyone else realised that the government actions that are being sold to us as being necessary to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed will do exactly that. Cancelling anything except COVID jabs will cause many deaths as the NHS have declared they cannot cope with the demand for boosters. This is madness.

Yes it will overwhelm the NCVS (formerly NHS now National Covid Vaccination Service).

And when Pfizer sell their 100 day omicron vaccine in April it will probably be the same again,
Also having very long queues outside vaccine centres is one way of spreading covid quickly.

The alternative of spreading vaccines over time means that immunity spreads over time and this is reflected in decreasing hospital admissions over the last few months.

I wonder how long it is before the PM mentions that the long queues are an endorsement to his leadership?

 

[Class 33]

Video here of Julia Hartley-Brewer having her say about this "Plan B" nonsense.....

 

[yorksrob]

I think the size of the Conservative rebellion tonight, plus the result of the North Shropshire by election, will serve as a warning to Boris Johnson that he can't just take his own MPs for granted, nor can he count on the automatic support of Conservative voters.

I certainly hope so.

We need them to come down hard on any proposed business closures and restrictions on national travel.