I wouldnt hold hope on getting the Class 158 from Scotrail. Think the Class 156 will be released rather than the Class 158.
Remember when Nat Ex tried to swap 20 x Class 156 for 20 Class 158 with Central Trains, MSPs put a stop to that.
The reason its been suggested the 158s come south is that they can't work on the West Highland or South Western, so it makes sense for 156s to continue on these lines. Plus 156s are perfectly okay for the Far North, Anniesland etc.
Most of the electrification will free up 170s (e.g. sixteen needed for the doubled up peak service on the Falkirk High line) which will free up the need for 158s on routes like Central Belt - Aberdeen (so there's more routes upgraded from two-car 158 to three-car 170 than there are "downgraded" from two-car 158 to two car 156).
So, with around fifty 158s freed up from ScotRail, plus the units freed up from Lancashire/ Thames Valley electrifications and you have almost a hundred units, which would wipe out the majority of Pacers
were there not stock shortages and increasing passenger numbers on so many lines.
Then again, when the Bathgate branch was electrified the plan was for the Northern 158s to head south, but they ended up being kept in Scotland (despite being needed at Northern), so maybe ScotRail will get 50 new EMUs and then keep all displaced DMUs too...
PS: I still think that an additional 350 miles of electrification should allow all Pacers to be withdrawn, but realistically even if the political will/money was there, the logistics of sorting this out
at the same time as electrifying lines in Lancashire/ Thames Valley would stretch experienced staff/ resources too far
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Slightly off topic maybe, but is there anything abroad that would even be suitable for our network? Apart from some Irish Stock that might fit, which probably isn't for sale, what is there that would match our safety standards, platform height, loading gauge, track gauge, power supply? Are there perhaps any parts of the network where it would be cheaper to modify the infrastructure to fit foreign stock, than to procure new UK standard trains. I gather the Cumbrian Coast line, for example, has numerous low platforms and limited inter-operation with the rest of the network, could that take something from the continent.
Definitely not in the interests of the passenger, but certainly make the railway more interesting if this was pursued.
I've argued for this previously on lines like C2C/LTS which are pretty self contained
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the destination displays would need replacing
Presumably there's no requirement for trains to have a destination display at the front (unlike buses), so it'd be DDA complaint just to get rid of them on Pacers?
(not saying its user friendly, but if it complies with the regulations then...)