Possible hurricane next week

[Egg Centric]

Here's a weird one - there's currently a tropical storm forming in the mid atlantic. Goes by the name of Leslie.

But some models are predicting that there's a chance it hits southern UK - as a cat 2 hurricaine!

You can view the predictions of those models here

Now I don't know anything about weather, but common sense tells me that while hurricanes aren't completely unknown in UK, this is probably not going to happen. Still, it's fun to think about what it will do to the GWML wiring in particular (given the location) and is maybe one that's worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.

 

[Magdalia]

Here's a weird one - there's currently a tropical storm forming in the mid atlantic. Goes by the name of Leslie.

It should have waited to be hurricane Michael and arriving on the 16th.

 

[Gloster]

In Hertford, Hereford and Hampshire hurricanes hardly ever happen.

 

[brad465]

It should have waited to be hurricane Michael and arriving on the 16th.

Had Hurricane Michael in 2018 not been so devastating to the US that could well have happened, however the name Michael was retired after 2018. This year's M name is Milton.

 

[SJL2020]

Had Hurricane Michael in 2018 not been so devastating to the US that could well have happened, however the name Michael was retired after 2018. This year's M name is Milton.

I think its a reference to the storm/hurricane that Michael Fish said wasn't going to happen, on 15/16 October 1987.

 

[Howardh]

Dunno the average temperature for the Atlantic this year, but last it appeared to be a lot higher than normal, and warm seas provide the energy to activate storms and keep them going. So last year we had a period of storms with winds way higher than normal? Example, last November Storm Ciaron in Jersey (video of the damage)

so if the sea temperatures are the same, expect the same this year.

It had been called an actual tornado;

Final Jersey tornado report follows trail of destruction

Witnesses describe lifted roofs, pressure in their ears and a sound "like a roar".

www.bbc.co.uk

The experiences of families whose homes were torn apart by Jersey's strongest ever tornado have been documented in a new report.

The tornado of November 2023 "left a community deeply in shock", said the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO).

The Site Investigation Report follows an earlier document which outlined the severest damage.

The new report, external provides detailed analysis of its 8km (8,000m) path.

Striking photo of the possible route of the tornado contained in this report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnepnmwkyndo

I just suppose the centre of any coming storm can't be predicted, but frankly (save for not going out tenting, caravanning or in high vehicles) there's not a lot you can do! Flood prevention is one thing, hurricane is another!

 

[neilmc]

There are UK weather scare stories on the internet more or less permanently. |These are generally from the Daily Express so should be treated with the same amount of scepticism as anything else in that newspaper.

 

[Howardh]

There are UK weather scare stories on the internet more or less permanently. |These are generally from the Daily Express so should be treated with the same amount of scepticism as anything else in that newspaper.

Indeed, if you have enough scare stories and post them every day, law of averages says one will be correct - eventually!

 

[brad465]

I think its a reference to the storm/hurricane that Michael Fish said wasn't going to happen, on 15/16 October 1987.

Oh I know, I was pointing out how close we could have come to that being reality.

 

[Egg Centric]

It had been called an actual tornado;

About the only thing I do know about weather is that England has the highest density of tornados of any country in the world.

 

[nw1]

Here's a weird one - there's currently a tropical storm forming in the mid atlantic. Goes by the name of Leslie.

But some models are predicting that there's a chance it hits southern UK - as a cat 2 hurricaine!

You can view the predictions of those models here

Now I don't know anything about weather, but common sense tells me that while hurricanes aren't completely unknown in UK, this is probably not going to happen. Still, it's fun to think about what it will do to the GWML wiring in particular (given the location) and is maybe one that's worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.

What it might be referring to is that another ex-hurricane, Kurt, might pass through as a regular low pressure system around the middle of next week. I suspect we're way too far north for genuine hurricanes.

 

[Mike99]

It should have waited to be hurricane Michael and arriving on the 16th.

My first name and I was born on the 16th,

 

[najaB]

What it might be referring to is that another ex-hurricane, Kurt, might pass through as a regular low pressure system around the middle of next week. I suspect we're way too far north for genuine hurricanes.

Yes, in that storms lose their tropical characteristics somewhere around 40-45° north latitude and become extra-tropical cyclones. Hence the famous Michael Fish "don't worry, there isn't" line - he was correct in that the storm wasn't warm cored.

However, in much the same way that you don't get tropical cyclones in the Southern Atlantic (except for when you do), with warmer sea surface temperatures it is becoming increasingly liekly that a storm will maintain its tropical characteristics long enough to reach us as a hurricane.

 

[Essan]

Here's a weird one - there's currently a tropical storm forming in the mid atlantic. Goes by the name of Leslie.

But some models are predicting that there's a chance it hits southern UK - as a cat 2 hurricaine!

You can view the predictions of those models here

Now I don't know anything about weather, but common sense tells me that while hurricanes aren't completely unknown in UK, this is probably not going to happen. Still, it's fun to think about what it will do to the GWML wiring in particular (given the location) and is maybe one that's worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.

It's actually the remnant of Hurricane Kirk (expected to be Cat 4 in mid Atlantic) that is currently predicted to pass close to southern England as a very deep depression towards the end of next week. Most models currently have it tracking over northern France, but it could track further north. Heavy rain may be a bigger issue than winds. Certainly one to watch, especially if you live near the south coast.

Edit: although it appears that Leslie could then follow a similar path!

 

[adc82140]

It's not physically possible for a hurricane to hit the UK, despite the wishes of the tabloid media. What we can get is hurricane force winds off a deep low pressure system, but it lacks the rotation and eye that defines an actual hurricane.

Ex-hurricane Kirk is causing the forecasters a few headaches. The different modelling runs are very much disagreeing about the course of this deep autumn low. The tracking has varied from mid France as far south at the Loire Valley to veering way north and completely bypassing the European landmass. As we head through Tuesday and Wednesday we'll get a better idea of where it's heading.

I did learn this week that most Atlantic hurricanes are born out of thunderstorms in Ethiopia. Never knew that.

 

[Gloster]

I have listened to the shipping forecast fairly often over the years I can only remember hurricane-force winds being forecast once. That was for sea area Shannon, to the west and south-west of the southern half of the island of Ireland.

 

[brad465]

I did learn this week that most Atlantic hurricanes are born out of thunderstorms in Ethiopia. Never knew that.

I wouldn't say most, but the most powerful in a given season usually are, arising as a "tropical wave" in east Africa, which then moves west, exits into the Atlantic near the Cape Verde islands and uses the warm tropical waters to develop further, and are classed as "Cape Verde hurricanes". Irma and Maria in 2017, as well as Dorian in 2019, are infamous examples of this.

 

[najaB]

I wouldn't say most, but the most powerful in a given season usually are, arising as a "tropical wave" in east Africa, which then moves west, exits into the Atlantic near the Cape Verde islands and uses the warm tropical waters to develop further, and are classed as "Cape Verde hurricanes". Irma and Maria in 2017, as well as Dorian in 2019, are infamous examples of this.

Indeed. Many more develop from low pressure systems over the western Caribbean sea or south of the Gulf of Mexico. There's one such area of interest at the moment that has a chance of developing into a depression over the next few days.

 

[Snow1964]

And as any weather buff will tell you, in addition to the mid Atlantic hurricane which could hit anywhere from Northern France to Scotland as a severe low pressure depression next week there is also the unusually weak (for early October) polar vortex forming

Polar Vortex is exceptionally cold air that forms in upper and mid atmosphere near North Pole during the winter. This year is apparently weakest for over 60 years (and records only go back about that). But there was one year that had very similar pattern with unusually weak vortex displaced from the pole to Siberia, the winter of 1981-82

Yes the winter where it was unusually cold in December and the displaced vortex led to frigid air and a 36 hour blizzard in January 1982. From memory Kent needed a Scottish snowblower. So if watching for bad weather excites you, then keep an eye of this years unusual polar vortex too as might be heading for a repeat 43 years later.

Link for those who like to read up on this

Unusually weak Polar Vortex is developing in the Stratosphere, linked with the Weather patterns over the United States and Canada

Unusually weak Polar Vortex brings Weather changes over the United States and Canada, also showing a potential impact on Winter 2024/2025

www.severe-weather.eu

 

[DarloRich]

Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't!".

 

[52290]

Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't!".

Sounds very fishy to me!

 

[najaB]

Sounds very fishy to me!

Don't you think that's rather taking the Michael?

 

[adc82140]

Very poor choice of words from Mr Fish. He did follow up with a sentence about it still being rather windy though, but that can be classed as an understatement of the century.

I had the pleasure of travelling with Michael Fish from Windsor back to Slough by train once, and he was happy to talk about the incident. He wishes he got a tenner for every time it was replayed.

Best moment for me though was when we were both sat on a bench at Windsor & Eton Central waiting for the train. Someone walked past, and I distinctly heard them say "Isn't that Ian McCaskill sat there?"

 

[brad465]

There are currently 3 simultaneous hurricanes active, which doesn't happen often:

REMNANTS OF SARA

(Image of National Hurricane Center live map of Atlantic, with Hurricanes Kirk, Leslie and Milton all active)

 

[adc82140]

Latest modelling is more confident that ex hurricane Kirk will pass over northern France. It'll still be wet & windy in the southern half of the UK, but the chances of something damaging are diminishing.

 

[ChrisC]

I’ve got a hotel room booked in Bournemouth from Tuesday for 7 nights. Although based in Bournemouth I have been planning on doing a number of coastal walks in the area. A few days ago I was wondering if I ought to cancel as the weather apps were showing continuous rain almost every day and gales Wednesday and Thursday. This has slowly changed to sunshine and showers and now, although cold and breezy, they are forecasting some dry sunny days during my week there. It does look like the heavy rain and gales are going to be further south over Northern France although East Kent may just get some stormy weather.

 

[najaB]

There are currently 3 simultaneous hurricanes active, which doesn't happen often:

REMNANTS OF SARA

View attachment 166903
(Image of National Hurricane Center live map of Atlantic, with Hurricanes Kirk, Leslie and Milton all active)

Milton has rapidly strengthened and is currently a category 5 storm. This means that Florida may be hit by its second major hurricane (category 3 or above) in less than two weeks!

 

[brad465]

Milton has rapidly strengthened and is currently a category 5 storm. This means that Florida may be hit by its second major hurricane (category 3 or above) in less than two weeks!

Trying to send a message to its climate-change sceptic governor I wonder?

 

[najaB]

Trying to send a message to its climate-change sceptic governor I wonder?

No doubt he'll try to blame it on Biden (or Obama!)

 

[Gloster]

No doubt he'll try to blame it on Biden (or Obama!)

Oh, no. It must be Harris’ fault now.