Potential Grand Union stock?

[Bob Price]

The BBC news is reporting that Grand Union have been given the go ahead for Carmarthen to Paddington services to start. They have said in the article they expect to start services by the end of 2024.

So what stock will they use? No way they will get 800 series stock built in less than two years and west of Cardiff there are no wires. So will we see 91's and DVTs with and engine change? Does anyone know what is planned?

BBC News - Trains: Plans for new London-west Wales services approved

Trains: Plans for new London-west Wales services approved

The regulator approves new rail services between London Paddington and Carmarthen.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[hexagon789]

The BBC news is reporting that Grand Union have been given the go ahead for Carmarthen to Paddington services to start. They have said in the article they expect to start services by the end of 2024.

So what stock will they use? No way they will get 800 series stock built in less than two years and west of Cardiff there are no wires. So will we see 91's and DVTs with and engine change? Does anyone know what is planned?

BBC News - Trains: Plans for new London-west Wales services approved

Trains: Plans for new London-west Wales services approved

The regulator approves new rail services between London Paddington and Carmarthen.

www.bbc.co.uk

Where are they going to get the Mk4s from, let alone 91s?

Just aren't any left that aren't being used by TfW or LNER.

The long-term plan is certainly 80x, assuming they do intend to operate from 2024, then hiring something 125mph capable such as 222s or potentially spare 221s would seem the only feasible option of the very few options there are and even those options are a bit of a push.

There is ongoing discussion in this thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...open-access-by-orr-from-december-2024.231444/

 

[roadierway77]

There's the Meridians that will begin to be displaced next year, but that depends on if XC want them or not. There's also the Voyagers at Avanti, they've been tipped to go to XC but I don't believe that's been officially confirmed? If not then some of those could be used by Grand Union in the short term while new 80x units are built

 

[Fyldeboy]

There's the Meridians that will begin to be displaced next year, but that depends on if XC want them or not. There's also the Voyagers at Avanti, they've been tipped to go to XC but I don't believe that's been officially confirmed? If not then some of those could be used by Grand Union in the short term while new 80x units are built

I'd go for meridians as XC already have 220 and 221 so it would make sense for them to have the AWC stock, not introduce set length confusion. If DfT doesn'y approve the AWC stock, theyre unlikely to approve 222s unless the rosco give them away.

So, to me, it sounds like 222s for GU

 

[JonathanH]

There's the Meridians that will begin to be displaced next year, but that depends on if XC want them or not. There's also the Voyagers at Avanti, they've been tipped to go to XC but I don't believe that's been officially confirmed?

Nothing is confirmed in the public domain about either fleet.

If not then some of those could be used by Grand Union in the short term while new 80x units are built

Yes, it brings to a head the question of whether the DfT are expecting to continue to lease these trains or whether they are available for open access. However, the question then arises about where they could be maintained as there aren't a lot of obvious options. A small operation at Landore could be possible but not sure who would run it.

I'd go for meridians as XC already have 220 and 221 so it would make sense for them to have the AWC stock, not introduce set length confusion. If DfT doesn'y approve the AWC stock, theyre unlikely to approve 222s unless the rosco give them away.

So, to me, it sounds like 222s for GU

Depends on the lease cost. If 221s are available sooner or cheaper, GU could lease them. There is no guarantee at all of XC taking any or all of the WC 221s.

It might even get the DfT out of a hole if GU lease some of the 221s on a short term basis and then they are available for XC later in the decade.

 

[roadierway77]

I'd go for meridians as XC already have 220 and 221 so it would make sense for them to have the AWC stock, not introduce set length confusion. If DfT doesn'y approve the AWC stock, theyre unlikely to approve 222s unless the rosco give them away.

So, to me, it sounds like 222s for GU

I agree, though if the 221s are going to XC, which seems very likely, there is still the possibility of GU taking a small number of them temporarily to run their service, and then sending them to XC once they have a new fleet

 

[Deepgreen]

Happy to be shot down, but 'Castle' HSTs, possibly re-formed? Or are they just unusable now? BTW, I note that the BBC item states that a fleet of new trains will be used (my bold).

 

[HamworthyGoods]

The track access application which this is relevant to says new 80x trains will be used. It is very unlikely services will start before this is available.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's going to be 80x. If bi-mode I guess 805s being the latest version?

 

[Bob Price]

The track access application which this is relevant to says new 80x trains will be used. It is very unlikely services will start before this is available.

It will be four to five years before that will happen. Meidians short term to get the service underway would make more sense until they can get 800's into place.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Wouldn’t be surprised if the DfT tell LNER to do without the 225s anyway, long before Dec 2024. It could then be an interim London Cardiff service or with a locomotive change there until the new fleet come into play.

The fact Renfe are involved makes me wonder if they’ll have any influence. They’re a fan of CAF and Talgo, aren’t they?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It will be four to five years before that will happen. Meridians short term to get the service underway would make more sense until they can get 800's into place.

Why would that be?
GU will already have a draft order with Hitachi, and if it is a clone of 805 or 810 will just be tacked onto the existing orders.
I thought Hitachi were hungry for orders between current 80x built and HS2 stock.
A new design or new manufacturer, yes, would be 3-4 years away.

 

[TheBigD]

Reported elsewhere that GUT have an option for class 805s.

 

[Deepgreen]

It will be four to five years before that will happen. Meidians short term to get the service underway would make more sense until they can get 800's into place.

Why so long? Existing orders for 80x/805s can easily be increased to accommodate GUT in way less time than that.

 

[43096]

There will be some PRM compliant HST sets available to get the service up and running. The chances of 80x sets being available by December 2024 must be debatable.

 

[SuperLuke2334]

Carmarthen cannot accommodate a 9 car 900/802, therefore it would have to be shorter than that. I think more than a 5-car 80x will be needed for the GWML corridor, so maybe a bi-mode 7 or 8 car train? That would make the most sense to me especially as if I remember correctly there were going to be 3 classes of travel on these trains? It might just be the two but can't quite remember.

 

[XCTurbostar]

Given that the paths are timed for Hitachi AT300s, I don't think it could be anything other than them.

 

[JonathanH]

There will be some PRM compliant HST sets available to get the service up and running.

I'd imagine a total destruction order could be placed on those as they leave service.

 

[uvarvu]

As long as you can plug in a phone charger at your seat and still use your phone with zero interference then I'm not bothered!

 

[jackot]

Given that the paths are timed for Hitachi AT300s, I don't think it could be anything other than them.

Definitely wouldn't be HSTs then I wouldn't think. A 221/222 would be able to keep to the paths, but everything seems to be very set up for IETs (track access applications, pathing etc.) as has been said.

I think it would be a tight fit to get IETs ready for the deadline, but as long as they don't differ massively from the other ones I reckon it could be done. It took around 2.5 years from order to delivery for the Lumo 803s, so in theory Hitachi should be able to knock up some 805s in 2 years if all goes well with their introduction on Avanti as the design would likely be even less bespoke. I would think the 805s would be the most obvious IET for the job, as the 810s would be too powerful. Unsure on 800/802s though.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Definitely wouldn't be HSTs then I wouldn't think. A 221/222 would be able to keep to the paths, but everything seems to be very set up for IETs (track access applications, pathing etc.) as has been said.

I think it would be a tight fit to get IETs ready for the deadline, but as long as they don't differ massively from the other ones I reckon it could be done. It took around 2.5 years from order to delivery for the Lumo 803s, so in theory Hitachi should be able to knock up some 805s in 2 years if all goes well with their introduction on Avanti as the design would likely be even less bespoke. I would think the 805s would be the most obvious IET for the job, as the 810s would be too powerful. Unsure on 800/802s though.

Fitting 221/222 with ATP will be the challenge. If this isn’t fitted they will be restricted to 110mph then won’t meet the paths. This was the same issue the 91/mk4s we’re facing.

 

[jackot]

Fitting 221/222 with ATP will be the challenge. If this isn’t fitted they will be restricted to 110mph then won’t meet the paths. This was the same issue the 91/mk4s we’re facing.

Forgot about that if I'm honest, very good point. That's probably another reason they are looking for brand new IETs.

 

[cle]

Feels very retrograde to run diesel under the wires from London to Cardiff on a 222, only to pootle along to Carmarthen. In fact, it probably shouldn't be allowed. Bi-mode or nothing.

 

[Bob Price]

Why so long? Existing orders for 80x/805s can easily be increased to accommodate GUT in way less time than that.

There are a number of trains in front of them at Hitachi, then they need to be tested and after that driver training. It's about the time it takes in real life.

 

[JonathanH]

There are a number of trains in front of them at Hitachi, then they need to be tested and after that driver training. It's about the time it takes in real life.

One of the advantages Lumo had was being able to borrow 80x units from elsewhere for driver training which meant they could start running as soon as their 803s were ready.

I can't see Grand Union getting access to a 80x unit to do this (unless some operator returns 80x units to a leasing company somehow).

 

[Bletchleyite]

One of the advantages Lumo had was being able to borrow 80x units from elsewhere for driver training which meant they could start running as soon as their 803s were ready.

I can't see Grand Union getting access to a 80x unit to do this (unless some operator returns 80x units to a leasing company somehow).

Well, there is one TOC who's got some on order that is looking rather likely not to be able to use them any time soon...

 

[JonathanH]

Well, there is one TOC who's got some on order that is looking rather likely not to be able to use them any time soon...

Indeed, but it depends on the leasing arrangements. As with other recent over-ordering, you do wonder why the get out clauses haven't been enacted regardless of the sunk cost.

 

[ge-gn]

125mph bi-mode Stadler Flirts would be my choice for this service. They only need to be able to do 125 under the wires, and the existing diesel power car might be adequate for the off the grid stuff. A much better product than the Hitachi in my opinion. There’ll be some experience of them in South Wales by then with tfw.

Hey, it’s a speculation thread!

 

[jackot]

125mph bi-mode Stadler Flirts would be my choice for this service. They only need to be able to do 125 under the wires, and the existing diesel power car might be adequate for the off the grid stuff. A much better product than the Hitachi in my opinion. There’ll be some experience of them in South Wales by then with tfw.

Hey, it’s a speculation thread!

Would be awesome, and I wholeheartedly agree with you that the FLIRTs are far superior to the IETs in many ways. My main worry would be the extra time/cost/complication. The IETs are proven for 125mph running on the GWML, and the existing/soon to be introduced 802s or 805s fit the bill already, so it is really as much of an off-the-shelf solution as far as trains go. I doubt that new 125mph FLIRTs could be ready within the 2-year time frame, and not for as little cost. Also, one power car is only enough for a 4 car FLIRT to get up to 90mph and it has no more room for anymore engines, so a larger power car would likely be needed.

And just to add a spanner into the works, how about some 180s? They already have ATP, and some might just be available in time to use until some IETs are ready. Not the greenest option mind you, but it doesn't stop Grand Central

 

[ge-gn]

Would be awesome, and I wholeheartedly agree with you that the FLIRTs are far superior to the IETs in many ways. My main worry would be the extra time/cost/complication. The IETs are proven for 125mph running on the GWML, and the existing/soon to be introduced 802s or 805s fit the bill already, so it is really as much of an off-the-shelf solution as far as trains go. I doubt that new 125mph FLIRTs could be ready within the 2-year time frame, and not for as little cost. Also, one power car is only enough for a 4 car FLIRT to get up to 90mph and it has no more room for anymore engines, so a larger power car would likely be needed.

And just to add a spanner into the works, how about some 180s? They already have ATP, and some might just be available in time to use until some IETs are ready. Not the greenest option mind you, but it doesn't stop Grand Central

Yes, I can see that a more “off the shelf” product would be better in the sense of getting them in service quicker, I grant you. It’s a real shame that the Hitachi is the go to high speed product now, and nothing else will seemingly be looked at for a generation. I suppose it was the same with the HST back in the day.

Just as a point of order, and I can only talk for the 755s, but they are more than capable of 100mph on diesel, both the /4 which has a 4 engine power car, and the /3 which has only a 2 engine power car!