Potential New Central Pennine Rail Line (Colne-Skipton)

[A0]

Given the state of the train service this past year, I don't think you could describe todays usage as a fair representation of the usage a functioning train service could attract.

On the contrary - Colne station usage has been fairly stable for the last 5 or so years the average is circa 95,000 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colne_railway_station

Divide that by 360 (to allow for a few days when there are no trains) and you're looking at 264 people a day - assume an hourly service for 14 hours (which would cover 7 am - 9 pm) and you'd have an average of 18 people per train. Given the demand won't be equal across the whole day, instead focused at certain key times, the scenario posted above is entirely conceivable.

 

[The Ham]

It's astonishing that Epsom and Ewell Man MP found his way so far north as Colne. No doubt he's hurried back to leafy Surrey, traumatized by the experience.

It's OK, I've got it on authority that he was looking at this photograph all the way there and back:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/attachments/nr0166-jpg.58303/

 

[yorksrob]

On the contrary - Colne station usage has been fairly stable for the last 5 or so years the average is circa 95,000 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colne_railway_station

Divide that by 360 (to allow for a few days when there are no trains) and you're looking at 264 people a day - assume an hourly service for 14 hours (which would cover 7 am - 9 pm) and you'd have an average of 18 people per train. Given the demand won't be equal across the whole day, instead focused at certain key times, the scenario posted above is entirely conceivable.

I suspect that that average will have taken a hit this year.

Either way, 95k is a respectable usage for a branch line terminus and I don't think that anecdotally being on a train with one person on it can be seen as a fair representation.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It seems that dedicated rail enthusiasts have "a Nelson's blind eye" when buses are discussed and conveniently forget that people actually in real life live in those in-between areas between railway stations where bus stops cater for the existing travelling needs of those brave souls who live in such situations.

If anyone has travelled between Whalley and Clitheroe by bus, another rail route which was actually reopened, that truth is most certainly self-evident and a number of new housing projects have been recently constructed in that intermediate area.

 

[Bantamzen]

It seems that dedicated rail enthusiasts have "a Nelson's blind eye" when buses are discussed and conveniently forget that people actually in real life live in those in-between areas between railway stations where bus stops cater for the existing travelling needs of those brave souls who live in such situations.

If anyone has travelled between Whalley and Clitheroe by bus, another rail route which was actually reopened, that truth is most certainly self-evident and a number of new housing projects have been recently constructed in that intermediate area.

Another thing that is often overlooked is the wider picture, in this case the potential opening up a new freight route to release at least some capacity elsewhere. Currently for freight to cross the Pennines there are three viable routes, the Hope Valley, the Standedge & the Calder routes, all of which really need more capacity for passenger services. So if, and I emphasise if, a case can be made by both the freight companies and their customers for a re-opening of this route then it may progress further into the process. That Colne see only an average of 18 people per train, or that buses between there & Skipton aren't terribly busy is not the end of the argument. A passenger service would really be secondary to the business case, getting fuel to one of the UK's largest power plants from the ports on the Mersey would be primary.

Of course there is still the issue of getting freight from Skipton to places like Drax where demand currently exists, no mean feat in itself, and of course how long the demand will last. This will be best known to both the customers of the freight companies, and if they feel that this would be financially viable to support it going forward. Personally I don't see it happening, partly because Grayling & Co pay more lip service than actual project development to the region. But nonetheless, it simply can't be ruled out because people don't see why the idea has been floated.

 

[Grumpy]

On the contrary - Colne station usage has been fairly stable for the last 5 or so years the average is circa 95,000 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colne_railway_station

Divide that by 360 (to allow for a few days when there are no trains) and you're looking at 264 people a day - assume an hourly service for 14 hours (which would cover 7 am - 9 pm) and you'd have an average of 18 people per train. Given the demand won't be equal across the whole day, instead focused at certain key times, the scenario posted above is entirely conceivable.

Apologies if I've misunderstood your workings, but I suspect the 95000 is arriving and departing passengers so you need to allow for arriving and departing trains so the actual passengers/train would be 9 not 18.

 

[chorleyjeff]

Another thing that is often overlooked is the wider picture, in this case the potential opening up a new freight route to release at least some capacity elsewhere. Currently for freight to cross the Pennines there are three viable routes, the Hope Valley, the Standedge & the Calder routes, all of which really need more capacity for passenger services. So if, and I emphasise if, a case can be made by both the freight companies and their customers for a re-opening of this route then it may progress further into the process. That Colne see only an average of 18 people per train, or that buses between there & Skipton aren't terribly busy is not the end of the argument. A passenger service would really be secondary to the business case, getting fuel to one of the UK's largest power plants from the ports on the Mersey would be primary.

Of course there is still the issue of getting freight from Skipton to places like Drax where demand currently exists, no mean feat in itself, and of course how long the demand will last. This will be best known to both the customers of the freight companies, and if they feel that this would be financially viable to support it going forward. Personally I don't see it happening, partly because Grayling & Co pay more lip service than actual project development to the region. But nonetheless, it simply can't be ruled out because people don't see why the idea has been floated.

Liverpool to Drax ? Why not use the old route from Liverpool to Hellifield - reinstate the chord at Farmington/Lostock Hall - and reverse at Hellifield to get down to Skipton and onwards. No need to argue about passenger numbers around deepest East Lancashire. And for how long is wood going to be dragged over the Pennines to make electricity ? Not many years I would guess.
Can't see many people who could afford to commute a fair distance to Leeds or Manchester choosing Colne, Nelson or Burnley as places to commute from !

 

[A0]

I suspect that that average will have taken a hit this year.

Either way, 95k is a respectable usage for a branch line terminus and I don't think that anecdotally being on a train with one person on it can be seen as a fair representation.

The numbers suggest it is though - as I've pointed out - even if you average it consistently you're only looking at 18 people per train - that's in a unit with a seating capacity of between 100 - 120 (for a Class 142).

On the basis there will be some with more on, such as at key commuting times, that means there will be some with far fewer on.

The next stop down the line, Nelson, attracts slightly more circa 130,000 - but those two stations are barely half filling a Pacer on average and it's only when it gets to Burnley is it likely to fill up and that's going to be with traffic heading towards Preston rather than Colne.

 

[Bantamzen]

Liverpool to Drax ? Why not use the old route from Liverpool to Hellifield - reinstate the chord at Farmington/Lostock Hall - and reverse at Hellifield to get down to Skipton and onwards. No need to argue about passenger numbers around deepest East Lancashire. And for how long is wood going to be dragged over the Pennines to make electricity ? Not many years I would guess.
Can't see many people who could afford to commute a fair distance to Leeds or Manchester choosing Colne, Nelson or Burnley as places to commute from !

Again, its not about commuters. The idea of the Colne-Skipton reinstatement was originally mooted by the owners of Drax, because trains coming from Liverpool were taking anything up to nine hours to reach them. So they were looking at options to reduce the time it takes from dock to plant. The further north & west a route goes, the longer it will potentially take especially if reversals are needed. And we are not talking about a few trains a year here, we are talking tens of millions of tonnes so for this energy generation to be as cost effective as possible, getting fuel from port to plant is key. It might not seem to matter much if it trundles half way around the region, but all the time the fuel is on freight service it is not generating power & costing in logistics. Hence the search for another option across the Pennines, other than transferring all logistics to the M62.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Again, its not about commuters. The idea of the Colne-Skipton reinstatement was originally mooted by the owners of Drax, because trains coming from Liverpool were taking anything up to nine hours to reach them. So they were looking at options to reduce the time it takes from dock to plant. The further north & west a route goes, the longer it will potentially take especially if reversals are needed. And we are not talking about a few trains a year here, we are talking tens of millions of tonnes so for this energy generation to be as cost effective as possible, getting fuel from port to plant is key. It might not seem to matter much if it trundles half way around the region, but all the time the fuel is on freight service it is not generating power & costing in logistics. Hence the search for another option across the Pennines, other than transferring all logistics to the M62.

No one is going to move wood chips on the M62 in that volume.

 

[Bantamzen]

No one is going to move wood chips on the M62 in that volume.

Exactly, hence the need to find the most economical route over the Pennines. £400M may sound like a lot on the face of it, but if it drives savings through drastically speeding up the movement of hundreds of millions of tonnes of fuel it starts to look like a prospect. I'm pretty sure I've read somewhere that the part of study would be to look how the plant owners might help fund such a project, so this isn't as someone implied elsewhere just about spending taxpayer's money that might be used elsewhere.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Exactly, hence the need to find the most economical route over the Pennines. £400M may sound like a lot on the face of it, but if it drives savings through drastically speeding up the movement of hundreds of millions of tonnes of fuel it starts to look like a prospect. I'm pretty sure I've read somewhere that the part of study would be to look how the plant owners might help fund such a project, so this isn't as someone implied elsewhere just about spending taxpayer's money that might be used elsewhere.

Good luck with that on an already heavily subsidised process (read backcopies of the Sunday Times business pages !)

Perhaps more use of Tyne Dock or elsewhere on the East Coast , making some use of already paid for - and not much used coal import infrastructure would be better for the taxpayer and electricity consumer.

 

[Bantamzen]

Good luck with that on an already heavily subsidised process (read backcopies of the Sunday Times business pages !)

Perhaps more use of Tyne Dock or elsewhere on the East Coast , making some use of already paid for - and not much used coal import infrastructure would be better for the taxpayer and electricity consumer.

Well it could be moved around to the east coast, but again fuel sitting on freight trains or cargo ships isn't generating energy, and is increasing the cost of the logistics. Much of the biofuel comes from the US, so routing shipping to the east coast would add more time than it would save even with the long trundles the fuel currently takes on the rail network.

 

[Train Maniac]

Having looked on Google Satellite the route is relatively intact. Sure there are a few bridges in need of reinstating but in the grand scheme of things wouldn't be too difficult to fix.
I think the only real nuisance is the A6068 in Colne.

 

[Bantamzen]

Well it could be moved around to the east coast, but again fuel sitting on freight trains or cargo ships isn't generating energy, and is increasing the cost of the logistics. Much of the biofuel comes from the US, so routing shipping to the east coast would add more time than it would save even with the long trundles the fuel currently takes on the rail network.

Edit: Just to qualify the difference in transit time, from Baton Rouge Louisiana where much of the fuel is loaded to the US is 5,679 nautical miles to Liverpool, taking 23.7 days at 10 knots. The journey to Immingham is 6,157 nautical miles & 25.7 days at the same speed. So a substantial difference, even if the cargo ships were doing considerably more than that speed.

Sources:

Sea Route calculator:
http://ports.com/sea-route/

Drax Wiki page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drax_power_station

 

[Bald Rick]

Exactly, hence the need to find the most economical route over the Pennines. £400M may sound like a lot on the face of it, but if it drives savings through drastically speeding up the movement of hundreds of millions of tonnes of fuel it starts to look like a prospect. I'm pretty sure I've read somewhere that the part of study would be to look how the plant owners might help fund such a project, so this isn't as someone implied elsewhere just about spending taxpayer's money that might be used elsewhere.

Well it could be moved around to the east coast, but again fuel sitting on freight trains or cargo ships isn't generating energy, and is increasing the cost of the logistics. Much of the biofuel comes from the US, so routing shipping to the east coast would add more time than it would save even with the long trundles the fuel currently takes on the rail network.

Edit: Just to qualify the difference in transit time, from Baton Rouge Louisiana where much of the fuel is loaded to the US is 5,679 nautical miles to Liverpool, taking 23.7 days at 10 knots. The journey to Immingham is 6,157 nautical miles & 25.7 days at the same speed. So a substantial difference, even if the cargo ships were doing considerably more than that speed.

Sources:

Sea Route calculator:
http://ports.com/sea-route/

Drax Wiki page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drax_power_station

See my posts #175, #185 and #194 above.

If Drax will benefit from it, then they should pay.

 

[Bantamzen]

See my posts #175, #185 and #194 above.

If Drax will benefit from it, then they should pay.

See my post #251 where I mention that Drax paying for it, or at least contributing is part of what is being looked into as far as I recall.

 

[jp4712]

I am/was the biggest sceptic around on this scheme, but in the last few days I've had my mind changed by A Man Who Is In A Position To Know (a Network Rail employee). He told me that in the past two years a surprising amount of background work has been done, including making sure that the formation is protected through any changes. He also told me that he has seen a detailed plan showing the Earby deviation that would bypass the town.

 

[Grumpy]

Edit: Just to qualify the difference in transit time, from Baton Rouge Louisiana where much of the fuel is loaded to the US is 5,679 nautical miles to Liverpool, taking 23.7 days at 10 knots. The journey to Immingham is 6,157 nautical miles & 25.7 days at the same speed. So a substantial difference, even if the cargo ships were doing considerably more than that speed.

However using the same methodology gives 24.2 days to Tees (24.1 to Tyne). Tees to Drax should be a relatively simple rail journey with the increased time on ship largely offset by reduced time on train. No Pennines to cross, no west Leeds to negotiate

 

[Bantamzen]

However using the same methodology gives 24.2 days to Tees (24.1 to Tyne). Tees to Drax should be a relatively simple rail journey with the increased time on ship largely offset by reduced time on train. No Pennines to cross, no west Leeds to negotiate

This is true, assuming of course that either could handle the requirements, keeping in mind that more than £100M was spent building the facilities at Liverpool (including 100,00 tonne storage) for the biofuel imports. Its entirely possible that these ports were considered but deemed unsuitable for whatever reason, be it logistical or financial.

I guess at the end of the day it will be down to the government and owners of Drax to work out the best strategy for moving the fuel. I'm not saying it should or will go ahead, merely pointing out to the active members on this thread that this proposal is not just about shuttling passengers between the Pennine towns of Colne & Skipton.

 

[scrapy]

Liverpool to Drax ? Why not use the old route from Liverpool to Hellifield - reinstate the chord at Farmington/Lostock Hall - and reverse at Hellifield to get down to Skipton and onwards. No need to argue about passenger numbers around deepest East Lancashire. And for how long is wood going to be dragged over the Pennines to make electricity ? Not many years I would guess.
Can't see many people who could afford to commute a fair distance to Leeds or Manchester choosing Colne, Nelson or Burnley as places to commute from !

Agreed the best way to test the market from East Lancashire to North Yorkshire would be a regular service between Clitheroe and Hellifield.

 

[yorksrob]

The numbers suggest it is though - as I've pointed out - even if you average it consistently you're only looking at 18 people per train - that's in a unit with a seating capacity of between 100 - 120 (for a Class 142).

On the basis there will be some with more on, such as at key commuting times, that means there will be some with far fewer on.

The next stop down the line, Nelson, attracts slightly more circa 130,000 - but those two stations are barely half filling a Pacer on average and it's only when it gets to Burnley is it likely to fill up and that's going to be with traffic heading towards Preston rather than Colne.

Passenger travel towards Colne is likely to be limited, precisely because it is a branch. A similar effect can be observed with Uckfield. This would not be the case were journey opportunities to the East to be provided.

 

[trickyvegas]

I also think this will provide much-needed employment opportunities in the Aire Valley for residents of Colne & Burnley

 

[Deerfold]

I also think this will provide much-needed employment opportunities in the Aire Valley for residents of Colne & Burnley

Not if it's only a freight line.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I also think this will provide much-needed employment opportunities in the Aire Valley for residents of Colne & Burnley

The inwards Colne services are surely resourced train crew wise from Blackpool (or has the new Blackburn train crew depot taken over ?) , and the Skipton services are either locally resourced , or from Leeds.

 

[A0]

I also think this will provide much-needed employment opportunities in the Aire Valley for residents of Colne & Burnley

Any danger of some facts to underpin your "thoughts" ?

The reality is it probably won't - Skipton - Leeds is average 45 mins now. Colne - Skipton at circa 11 miles would probably be adding another 20 mins to that as a journey time (to use an example Ipswich - Felixstowe which is a similar length has a journey time of 26 mins).

Colne has a population of less than 20,000, Nelson just less than 30,000. So neither are particularly big towns.

If there was the demand for Colne - Leeds it could be achieved for a sub 90 minute journey with a slightly different stopping pattern on the Trans Pennine services (add a stop at Rose Grove).

 

[Francis]

It's OK, I've got it on authority that he was looking at this photograph all the way there and back:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/attachments/nr0166-jpg.58303/

Very nice pic. Where is it? Hants or Dorset at a guess.

 

[furnessvale]

It's astonishing that Epsom and Ewell Man MP found his way so far north as Colne. No doubt he's hurried back to leafy Surrey, traumatized by the experience.

Even the bandleader on the Titanic went down on his ship rather than go home to Colne!

 

[Goldie]

Any danger of some facts to underpin your "thoughts" ?

The reality is it probably won't - Skipton - Leeds is average 45 mins now. Colne - Skipton at circa 11 miles would probably be adding another 20 mins to that as a journey time (to use an example Ipswich - Felixstowe which is a similar length has a journey time of 26 mins).

Colne has a population of less than 20,000, Nelson just less than 30,000. So neither are particularly big towns.

If there was the demand for Colne - Leeds it could be achieved for a sub 90 minute journey with a slightly different stopping pattern on the Trans Pennine services (add a stop at Rose Grove).

I don't think trickyvegas is suggesting Leeds. The stretch of Airedale between Bradford and Keighley is solidly developed, with some sizeable employers. Skipton has the Building Society's head office. These places are destinations for commuters in themselves.

 

[bluenoxid]

Having looked on Google Satellite the route is relatively intact. Sure there are a few bridges in need of reinstating but in the grand scheme of things wouldn't be too difficult to fix.
I think the only real nuisance is the A6068 in Colne.

If you don’t think that £400m is a grand scheme, then it won’t be troubling.

As well as Vivary Way, the canal and River Aire need to be crossed. In addition the A56 needs to be crossed in the Earby area. The current alignment is not fit for purpose.

When you are in the back end of all the regions that you sit in (North Yorks, Lancs and Leeds City Region), it is a lot of money.

I don't think trickyvegas is suggesting Leeds. The stretch of Airedale between Bradford and Keighley is solidly developed, with some sizeable employers. Skipton has the Building Society's head office. These places are destinations for commuters in themselves.

The problem is that there are only some sizeable employers (not as many as people think). The volume of traffic and passengers pushing down the Aire Valley suggest that there are not enough jobs.