Quarantine

[Richard Scott]

As others have said, 40k+ deaths that wouldn't have been had COVID-19 not happened* looks like lethal to me and more than worthy of serious measures to prevent it's spread. Had that been done in February, we would be in a different position than today. The looming second wave that the figures indicate could be on its way will be a lot worse if the same head in the sand response from the authorities is repeated. Restriction on travel and quarantine are asmall price to pay to keep the damage down. If the need for a holiday was as genuine as some say, it wouldn't matter where such a holiday was, so the UK can provide a respite for those who really need it.

I'm afraid many of the deaths would have happened in the not too distant future (I'm not saying all) as many were older and frail and probably weren't long for this world anyway, that may sound harsh but is reality. We really need to get this in perspective, it is lethal to some but not the vast majority, the same as flu, measles, meningitis and many other ailments. Whilst the virus was brought in from other countries I'm afraid stopping people going to Europe is going to make almost no difference. You need to consider people's mental health too, whilst you may not see the need to travel some people need to have a change of scenery and for some this has been a hugely stressful time. There are many that rely on foreign tourists both sides of the channel for their livelihood, but to some of you that doesn't matter as they're just being selfish. A number of people really need to see the bigger picture and in that picture this virus is only a small part not the whole thing.

 

[Meerkat]

The virus was brought in, got out of control, and lockdown ensued.
i think another lockdown would be more damaging than not getting a foreign holiday (which is after all something many have to go without long term)

 

[Richard Scott]

The virus was brought in, got out of control, and lockdown ensued.
i think another lockdown would be more damaging than not getting a foreign holiday (which is after all something many have to go without long term)

It's already here, so someone may come back with it, big deal. How many times do we have to say at current rate of infection we'll be doing this for 200 years and if we got that up 100 fold (which we've never even come close to) it'll be 2 years. You just sit tight, the rest of us will get on with life.

 

[Bantamzen]

The virus was brought in, got out of control, and lockdown ensued.
i think another lockdown would be more damaging than not getting a foreign holiday (which is after all something many have to go without long term)

I asked a similar question of @Bletchleyite and didn't get an adequate answer, so I'll ask you as maybe you have more insight. Why is the virus contracted in Benidorm worse than one caught in Blackpool?

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I'm afraid many of the deaths would have happened in the not too distant future (I'm not saying all) as many were older and frail and probably weren't long for this world anyway, that may sound harsh but is reality. We really need to get this in perspective, it is lethal to some but not the vast majority, the same as flu, measles, meningitis and many other ailments. Whilst the virus was brought in from other countries I'm afraid stopping people going to Europe is going to make almost no difference. You need to consider people's mental health too, whilst you may not see the need to travel some people need to have a change of scenery and for some this has been a hugely stressful time. There are many that rely on foreign tourists both sides of the channel for their livelihood, but to some of you that doesn't matter as they're just being selfish. A number of people really need to see the bigger picture and in that picture this virus is only a small part not the whole thing.

For eight consecutive weeks now, the number of deaths (England and Wales) has been below the five year average. The bulge of 'brought forward deaths' (due to COVID-19) is slowly being eliminated. What happens when the excess deaths for 2020 is a negative figure?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I asked a similar question of @Bletchleyite and didn't get an adequate answer, so I'll ask you as maybe you have more insight. Why is the virus contracted in Benidorm worse than one caught in Blackpool?

My answer, as I said, is that that isn't important - it's just easier to "divide and conquer" - to deal with a significant problem like that domestically.

 

[Bantamzen]

My answer, as I said, is that that isn't important - it's just easier to "divide and conquer" - to deal with a significant problem like that domestically.

Except that you are not going to stop people moving, so you can neither "divide" nor "conquer". In the history of viruses, not one has been defeated by clichés.

 

[Envy123]

Looks like all my favourite destinations are going to be out of the exempt list very shortly. Cornwall, it is, then.

 

[jtuk]

The virus was brought in, got out of control, and lockdown ensued.
i think another lockdown would be more damaging than not getting a foreign holiday (which is after all something many have to go without long term)

You missed out "was naturally coming under control" between points two and three

 

[Meerkat]

I asked a similar question of @Bletchleyite and didn't get an adequate answer, so I'll ask you as maybe you have more insight. Why is the virus contracted in Benidorm worse than one caught in Blackpool?

Is Blackpool a higher risk than Benidorm (considering Spain’s rocketing rates)?
Logistically can we quarantine Blackpool?
Politically can we cut off part of our own country?
If we shutdown Blackpool the UK taxpayer suffers the consequences. If we lockout Benidorm the effect on the UK taxpayer is probably positive.

 

[221129]

Politically can we cut off part of our own country?
If we shutdown Blackpool the UK taxpayer suffers the consequences. If we lockout Benidorm the effect on the UK taxpayer is probably positive.

So it's about politics and money. NOT about safety.

 

[Envy123]

Well, in Russia where it's not exempt, social distancing is never enforced where I went out and people even get on crowded minibuses with no hesitation. I felt safer going to Wells in Norfolk than I did in a park in Stavropol.

 

[Meerkat]

So it's about politics and money. NOT about safety.

It’s about safety, but taking into account what’s possible and affordable.
quarantining Blackpool and Benidorm might not be possible but doing one is better than none.

 

[yorkie]

It’s about safety, but taking into account what’s possible and affordable.
quarantining Blackpool and Benidorm might not be possible but doing one is better than none.

Thanks for confirming it's a box ticking exercise for no real purpose other than being seen to be doing something.

 

[Meerkat]

Thanks for confirming it's a box ticking exercise for no real purpose other than being seen to be doing something.

You really think a Tory government lead by a libertarian would be relaxed about keeping its sun reading voters away from Spain and its members away from their holiday homes in France (other stereotypes are available) as a box ticking exercise?
We are playing whack a mole in the north, we don’t need to bring in more cases from countries with fast rising case rates until we know that longer term whack a mole can keep a lid on things.

 

[yorkie]

What evidence do you have that countries such as Portugal have "fast rising cases"?

 

[Meerkat]

What evidence do you have that countries such as Portugal have "fast rising cases"?

I was thinking of Spain and France, but Portugal presumably breached the criteria set by the government

 

[yorkie]

Right, so that'll be a no then; point proven!

Furthermore, if there was a genuine medical reason for this, you'd have to isolate if you visited certain parts of the UK! As that doesn't happen, it clearly must be for political / box ticking / point scoring reasons.

If anyone can provide evidence to the contrary, I'd be interested to hear it...

 

[Richard Scott]

I was thinking of Spain and France, but Portugal presumably breached the criteria set by the government

France currently has around 100,000 active cases in a population on more than 60,000,000. So under 1 in 600 have it not exactly prolific is it? Even if it was rising fast and cases doubled it still isn't a massive number. Again, a sense of reality needed.

 

[Meerkat]

Right, so that'll be a no then; point proven!

Furthermore, if there was a genuine medical reason for this, you'd have to isolate if you visited certain parts of the UK! As that doesn't happen, it clearly must be for political / box ticking / point scoring reasons.

If anyone can provide evidence to the contrary, I'd be interested to hear it...

why do you refuse to see the point?
isolating parts of the UK is logistically difficult and economically damaging but will probably happen if an outbreak gets too big. Isolating at the border is easy and less damaging so has a lower threshold for action.

France currently has around 100,000 active cases in a population on more than 60,000,000. So under 1 in 600 have it not exactly prolific is it? Even if it was rising fast and cases doubled it still isn't a massive number. Again, a sense of reality needed.

If it’s rising fast and doubling then it keeps doubling faster and faster - this is proven, it happened earlier in the year and we ended up in lockdown!

 

[yorkie]

So, to confirm, you agree that quarantine is for political and box ticking reasons, and you also base it on a prediction of future infections rather than the current situation.

Taking my Portugal example, you offer no evidence to disagree with my assertion, and therefore I trust you agree with the argument I've put forward. If you do find any evidence to suggest there is a good reason why people should quarantine after visiting Portugal, I'd be interested to hear it...

 

[Meerkat]

So, to confirm, you agree that quarantine is for political and box ticking reasons, and you also base it on a prediction of future infections rather than the current situation.

Taking my Portugal example, you offer no evidence to disagree with my assertion, and therefore I trust you agree with the argument I've put forward. If you do find any evidence to suggest there is a good reason why people should quarantine after visiting Portugal, I'd be interested to hear it...

No, I totally disagree and don’t understand your logic at all. Do you think everything has to be all or nothing?
some criminals have guns, we may as well legalise guns again.
In fact NOT quarantining is the political decision - we don’t quarantine Blackpool because it is too damaging to do. It was the travel corridors that was a political decision, under pressure.

 

[Richard Scott]

If it’s rising fast and doubling then it keeps doubling faster and faster - this is proven, it happened earlier in the year and we ended up in lockdown!

But it's not is it? In original outbreak it went up by a factor of three about every 9 days. It's not doing that now.

 

[Bantamzen]

No, I totally disagree and don’t understand your logic at all. Do you think everything has to be all or nothing?
some criminals have guns, we may as well legalise guns again.
In fact NOT quarantining is the political decision - we don’t quarantine Blackpool because it is too damaging to do. It was the travel corridors that was a political decision, under pressure.

I'm sorry but trying to compare the policy on travel to the policy on guns is ridiculous, and quite honestly suggests a lack of a cohesive argument on the subject in hand. Shutting the borders or implementing strict quarantines will not eradicate the virus, just ask New Zealand.

 

[jtuk]

If it’s rising fast and doubling then it keeps doubling faster and faster - this is proven, it happened earlier in the year and we ended up in lockdown!

Well, if we ignore the evidence that it had stopped doubling and it had started decreasing prior to lockdown and humour your point for a minute, we had the first confirmed case on the last day of January. If it doubled every day then by the end of February, over 500 million people would have had it in the UK by then. There's just one small problem with that model...

 

[BJames]

No, I totally disagree and don’t understand your logic at all. Do you think everything has to be all or nothing?
some criminals have guns, we may as well legalise guns again.
In fact NOT quarantining is the political decision - we don’t quarantine Blackpool because it is too damaging to do. It was the travel corridors that was a political decision, under pressure.

That comparison with guns makes no sense.

It doesn't have to be all or nothing, it needs to make sense.

And on the subject of all or nothing, why are all the Spanish islands under quarantine too, when the biggest covid transmissions are in Catalonia and other mainland provinces?

A lot of countries have a lower rate of infection than we have here.

why do you refuse to see the point?
isolating parts of the UK is logistically difficult and economically damaging but will probably happen if an outbreak gets too big. Isolating at the border is easy and less damaging so has a lower threshold for action.

In New Zealand they are using hotels for mandatory 14 day quarantine for every single person that enters. Here it's "mandatory" to the extent of "go home, we trust you'll stay there for two weeks". That's not quarantine, it's telling the rest of the UK that we are "making it safe" and "protecting against Covid being brought back" - although it's already here!

And FWIW, New Zealand has the strictest quarantine yet Covid still managed to get back into the community.

I would support the idea fully if we had maintained an elimination strategy, we haven't, so as it stands it doesn't make sense to be done the way it is, unless the infection rate in another country (e.g. USA) is too great and it is incredibly likely that a high proportion of travellers to the UK would be infected.

 

[Meerkat]

Well, if we ignore the evidence that it had stopped doubling and it had started decreasing prior to lockdown and humour your point for a minute, we had the first confirmed case on the last day of January. If it doubled every day then by the end of February, over 500 million people would have had it in the UK by then. There's just one small problem with that model...

That it takes a while for a virus to hit the point that it goes bonkers and actions were taken to crush the rise?
Ireland is looking iffy....

And on the subject of all or nothing, why are all the Spanish islands under quarantine too, when the biggest covid transmissions are in Catalonia and other mainland provinces?

I assume the islands issue is about keeping it simple.

A lot of countries have a lower rate of infection than we have here

From the map on the last page it isn’t that many - of significant European countries only Italy is in a lower band and only Germany not in a higher band. And of course quarantine doesn’t currently apply to them
https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_33_FINAL.pdf

 

[AM9]

... I assume the islands issue is about keeping it simple. ...

I think that the intention was to quarantine the whole of Spain to prevent those less committed to reducing the risk of further infection from popping out of the restricted part (in this case mainland Spain) via domestic flights to airports outside the area for their flights home. There would clearly be a significant volume of those judging by the complaints of returning travellers. There were also quite a few trying to beat the deadline for returning from France naïvely expecting the restriction to only apply to those returning from the hot spots over there.

 

[brad465]

Today I found out the cycle Sportive in Majorca I'm meant to be doing on October 10th (having been postponed from April), is going ahead, which is a bit annoying as I'd prefer a further postponement if mandatory quarantine is still in place by this point (acknowledging a lot can change for better or worse in the next 2 months).

However having done the same event 2 years ago, where 1000s of riders participate, the situation would have to be very good by this point to go ahead, as gatherings at the start line and feed stations en route are very crowded spots. If quarantine on return isn't in place and it goes ahead I'll happily go, it's the quarantine aspect that is most concerning me.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Cycling is a fairly distanced pursuit so long as they can find a way to handle aid stations. If you get within 1m you are, unless a professional, likely to have a nasty crash in pretty short order, and of course the moving air will get rid of it anyway.