Quarantine

[jtuk]

That’s a lot of tests - is there the capacity for that?

I'm sure I read we've got at least 100k tests per day that aren't being used, so maybe?

 

[Meerkat]

How many people go into quarantine per day?

It was hundreds of thousands returning from France wasn’t it?

I think there are probably some countries it would be worth quarantining. What isn't worth it is doing so on the basis of a fairly minimal difference between their figures and ours, and worst of all constantly chopping and changing who is on the list while loads of people are actually there on holiday. 5 days notice on arrivals from somewhere with a developing regional situation isn't going to make any real difference in terms of the spread of the virus. Making people play a cruel game of cat and mouse where the forfeit is that they end up returning from a wrecked holiday to financial ruin, that's not the sort of behaviour that makes people inclined to play ball when they are making guest lists for a party

It isn’t done purely on the current numbers, it looks at direction of travel, containment etc etc.
if you want to give five days notice then you have to do it five days earlier when you still aren’t sure.
And conversely, without quarantine people will think ‘why can’t I have a party when you can get on a crowded plane to fly to Spain and have parties there?’

 

[talldave]

It was hundreds of thousands returning from France wasn’t it?

Government said 160k people in France, so not even "hundreds of thousands". And if most got back, it would have been a few tens of thousands in quarantine. A drop in the ocean compared to the 150k+ tests being carried out daily. So totally doable. But of course Project Fear relies on not doing anything that might undermine Project Fear.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How about testing everyone who's quarantining? That would show how pointless it is, or isn't.

Testing at day 5 allowing release is under consideration (and it may well be workable for people to take 2 weeks off and have a 9 day holiday plus that 5 day wait instead of a full 2 week holiday). The problem with testing at the airport on the way in is that if they caught it that day it likely wouldn't have developed yet to the extent of causing a positive PCR test so it'd be missed. However on balance this may provide enough mitigation and would allow tourism to properly restart.

 

[Meerkat]

Government said 160k people in France, so not even "hundreds of thousands". And if most got back, it would have been a few tens of thousands in quarantine. A drop in the ocean compared to the 150k+ tests being carried out daily. So totally doable. But of course Project Fear relies on not doing anything that might undermine Project Fear.

this project fear conspiracy....who...and why?!

Testing at day 5 allowing release is under consideration (and it may well be workable for people to take 2 weeks off and have a 9 day holiday plus that 5 day wait instead of a full 2 week holiday). The problem with testing at the airport on the way in is that if they caught it that day it likely wouldn't have developed yet to the extent of causing a positive PCR test so it'd be missed. However on balance this may provide enough mitigation and would allow tourism to properly restart.

i think the suggestion I saw was a test at the airport and then another a few days later.
Going to be a bit pricey for the budget holiday and weekend market though??
And must be capacity doubts - maybe business and high end only??

 

[yorkie]

Let’s go back to basics - what is your plan?

Out of interest, what's yours?

 

[takno]

this project fear conspiracy....who...and why?!

Project Fear would be the ongoing campaign of utterly open and scientifically increasingly-poorly-supported announcements by the government and official channels that we are all doomed and must take drastic action to avoid killing everybody's granny. Nobody else mentioned a conspiracy - I'm assuming you only mentioned as a spot of whataboutery to belittle somebody else's argument.=

 

[Meerkat]

Out of interest, what's yours?

Get the schools open, and only close in exceptional circumstance.
Otherwise be open but cautious til we know more about how transmission works (so contact tracing as research as well as prevention), restrictions localised, including travel bans if necessary.
Masks only on public transport except in local problem areas, not in shops everywhere.
Quarantine as default, unless destination is very safe (Though the double test to reduce time, as long as traveller pays)
Pretty much as current but trace trace trace.

So anyway, what is your plan?

Project Fear would be the ongoing campaign of utterly open and scientifically increasingly-poorly-supported announcements by the government and official channels that we are all doomed and must take drastic action to avoid killing everybody's granny. Nobody else mentioned a conspiracy - I'm assuming you only mentioned as a spot of whataboutery to belittle somebody else's argument.=

Project Fear does rather sound like an accusation of conspiracy, almost by definition.
Examples of ‘we are all doomed’??
The accusation just doesn’t fit the people - Boris and gang tend to libertarianism and restrictions are very in-Tory. There is also little attempt at enforcement which is odd if the accusation was true.
As there is no appetite for strict enforcement the talk needs to be slightly on the stricter side so it doesn’t need total obedience to be effective.

 

[takno]

Get the schools open, and only close in exceptional circumstance.
Otherwise be open but cautious til we know more about how transmission works (so contact tracing as research as well as prevention), restrictions localised, including travel bans if necessary.
Masks only on public transport except in local problem areas, not in shops everywhere.
Quarantine as default, unless destination is very safe (Though the double test to reduce time, as long as traveller pays)
Pretty much as current but trace trace trace.

To be fair this isn't hugely far away from where most people on the thread/forum seem to be. Little bit harder on the quarantine perhaps, but I think that's more a matter of emphasis and implementation than anything else.

I suspect in terms of the strength of the messaging the difference for me is living in Scotland, where the messaging has been significantly harder for a lot longer and restrictions have been slower to ease and the easements more limited in their scope.

 

[talldave]

this project fear conspiracy....who...and why?!

Only those who don't believe it refer to it as a conspiracy. I suggest you ask the SAGE psychologists who were/are the driving force.

Think about all the hysterical reporting from Bournemouth beach - no spike, no hospital influx, no deaths. Similarly for BLM events, nothing. Similarly the prophecies about second waves - due last week or the week before?

Road deaths now outnumber Covid deaths most days. But heaven forbid the media report on death numbers the day after a zero deaths day - "deaths increase by infinity!".

People are behaving like Covid is Ebola. It's not, it's equivalent to a bad flu year.

 

[Meerkat]

Only those who don't believe it refer to it as a conspiracy. I suggest you ask the SAGE psychologists who were/are the driving force.

Think about all the hysterical reporting from Bournemouth beach - no spike, no hospital influx, no deaths. Similarly for BLM events, nothing. Similarly the prophecies about second waves - due last week or the week before?

Road deaths now outnumber Covid deaths most days. But heaven forbid the media report on death numbers the day after a zero deaths day - "deaths increase by infinity!".

People are behaving like Covid is Ebola. It's not, it's equivalent to a bad flu year.

So Project Fear is actually just press sensationalism and noisy folk on social media, and not actually the government or policy makers?
ps I am not sure you would notice a Bournemouth Beach Spike as it would be spread over a wide area, and wouldnt reach spike proportions from one day outside (you would only get one step in a chain and how many could one person infect on a beach?)

 

[talldave]

So Project Fear is actually just press sensationalism and noisy folk on social media, and not actually the government or policy makers?
ps I am not sure you would notice a Bournemouth Beach Spike as it would be spread over a wide area, and wouldnt reach spike proportions from one day outside (you would only get one step in a chain and how many could one person infect on a beach?)

No, it comes from government (SAGE) via the messaging to scare us into compliance with the endless rules. The media love it of course - sensational headlines sell papers/generate clicks. After weeks of "save lives" messaging and endless death figures (bearing in mind that Facebook Karens think nobody ever dies and are oblivious to the UK daily death figure of around 1700) we were softened up for masks. Trains first, then crank up the fear factor to shops. Meanwhile deaths were plummeting. When we have a zero death day, it doesn't even register in the media!

 

[Meerkat]

The Bournemouth spike panic wasn’t SAGE, or the government, it was just locals rightly concerned about crowding, and rabid social media.
Again, the accusation just doesn’t fit the people involved - the Tories hate restricting freedom like this due to their libertarianism and/or need to be popular.

 

[bramling]

The Bournemouth spike panic wasn’t SAGE, or the government, it was just locals rightly concerned about crowding, and rabid social media.
Again, the accusation just doesn’t fit the people involved - the Tories hate restricting freedom like this due to their libertarianism and/or need to be popular.

I agree a lot of the fuss about beaches is more people peeved about massive congestion, gridlocked parking, litter and the like, which I agree are perfectly valid concerns.

I’m not so sure about your analysis on the libertarianism though. That may well have been the case back in March - indeed I tend to agree with the view that if we were going to have a lockdown then it should have been sooner in order to reduce its duration, though this was probably more dithering than ideology. However, since then I sense a distinct change. I’m not so sure it is simply that Boris was in intensive care, but more that we are now part of a massive damage limitation exercise. They must surely be aware of the longer term implications of all this, as well as the short-term impact of publicity like “worst death toll in Europe”. A lot of what we’re seeing is damage limitation, people like Boris and Hancock desperately trying to salvage their careers.

In time we will be seeing more and more of this, and no doubt an extremely ugly blame game. We’ve already seen a preview of this when Boris (or was it Hancock, I can’t remember?) attempted to blame care home owners.

 

[Meerkat]

First time round they tried a slightly laxer route and we got a death rate higher than almost everyone else (though of course we might never know if the two are linked).
Considering that and how things have been going almost everywhere that has lifted restrictions I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be pretty cautious. We are still generally less restricted than most of Europe was at a similar point.
It’s also clear that the government want to lift restrictions. Pubs and restaurants was done earlier than the scientists would have liked, they are demanding schools open, etc etc.

 

[Mag_seven]

Just a gentle reminder that we are discussing Quarantine on this thread not a general discussion about our response to COVID.

Has anyone heard any rumours of which country is going to be taken off "the safe list" next?

 

[Yew]

Has anyone heard any rumours of which country is going to be taken off "the safe list" next?

I'd imagine that Boris has a giant wheel of foturne that he uses to decide

 

[Bantamzen]

I'd imagine that Boris has a giant wheel of foturne that he uses to decide

I doubt this government could use anything so complicated, I'm thinking world map and some darts.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I too am surprised the rumours of where next have not started yet, they're usually well in course by Tuesday.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Wouldn't be surprised if the other three nations follow Scotland's lead in adding Switzerland to the list this week. Of course this is just speculation.

 

[Huntergreed]

Wouldn't be surprised if the other three nations follow Scotland's lead in adding Switzerland to the list this week. Of course this is just speculation.

We have some students at our uni who are coming from Switzerland and would be required to quarantine in Scotland, instead they've decided to go on a 2 week jolly around England to see the sights and escape the self-inflicted house arrest had they willingly chosen to stay in Scotland.

This rule is absolute madness, and it's quite frankly awful that it's being imposed differently in different administrations to create these anomalies, people's livelihoods are at stake here and the governments feel like they can just play around with that under the guise of protecting us, I've had enough of it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We have some students at our uni who are coming from Switzerland and would be required to quarantine in Scotland, instead they've decided to go on a 2 week jolly around England to see the sights and escape the self-inflicted house arrest had they willingly chosen to stay in Scotland.

This rule is absolute madness, and it's quite frankly awful that it's being imposed differently in different administrations to create these anomalies, people's livelihoods are at stake here and the governments feel like they can just play around with that under the guise of protecting us, I've had enough of it.

I bet Bozza and Hancock wish that pandemic response was a reserved (i.e. non-devolved) matter...

 

[Huntergreed]

I bet Bozza and Hancock wish that pandemic response was a reserved (i.e. non-devolved) matter...

Frankly so do I.

We are one island, it makes sense for us to follow one approach, whether that be herd immunity, elimination, hammer and dance (that's a discussion for another thread). In Scotland she is insistent on elimination and she won't open us up fully until we have, but for as long as England is not following this approach, elimination is, in my view, simply impossible.

 

[bramling]

Frankly so do I.

We are one island, it makes sense for us to follow one approach, whether that be herd immunity, elimination, hammer and dance (that's a discussion for another thread). In Scotland she is insistent on elimination and she won't open us up fully until we have, but for as long as England is not following this approach, elimination is, in my view, simply impossible.

I agree the disjointed approach just hasn’t served us well. One might have thought the politicians would be able to work together at a time of national crisis and come to some form of consensus, but it wasn’t to be.

It doesn’t help that the implications are imbalanced between the four nations as the economic costs are more borne by the Westminster government than the devolved ones.

Certainly going forward this needs to be looked at. Having said that the comms coming out of Wales and Scotland have been light years ahead of Johnson, even if one disregards what the actual policies have been.

 

[takno]

I agree the disjointed approach just hasn’t served us well. One might have thought the politicians would be able to work together at a time of national crisis and come to some form of consensus, but it wasn’t to be.

It doesn’t help that the implications are imbalanced between the four nations as the economic costs are more borne by the Westminster government than the devolved ones.

Certainly going forward this needs to be looked at. Having said that the comms coming out of Wales and Scotland have been light years ahead of Johnson, even if one disregards what the actual policies have been.

I'd say only the ministerial-level comms have been better in the nations, although ministers making stuff up on the hoof has made it really difficult to look good more generally. Worth noting on the topic of quarantine though that it's been pressure from the nations which has led to some of the craziest short-notice cut-offs. The fact that Westminster has still copped the blame just goes to show how uniquely awful the current cabinet are at being ministers.

The civil service effort has generally been pretty good in England though, with a solid attempt to pass everything through a single office and hold a consistent line. The nations have been a bit less successful at this, partly because they have smaller teams, and partly because they have to wait for the English publications before they can change the font-size and move all the dates back by a month.

Going

 

[Richard Scott]

Frankly so do I.

We are one island, it makes sense for us to follow one approach, whether that be herd immunity, elimination, hammer and dance (that's a discussion for another thread). In Scotland she is insistent on elimination and she won't open us up fully until we have, but for as long as England is not following this approach, elimination is, in my view, simply impossible.

Elimination is impossible full stop irrespective of the approach.

 

[scotrail158713]

Elimination is impossible full stop irrespective of the approach.

Absolutely. Despite what Sturgeon thinks in her perfect world.

 

[Crossover]

Elimination is impossible full stop irrespective of the approach.

The only way it would be possible is for every single person on the planet to stay in one place for <insert number> of days/weeks/months (a bit like one may do with an infected computer and has happened with animal diseases before, such as foot and mouth) and is likely what some scientists would hanker for. Of course, there are many reasons why this isn't in any way practical from a human perspective

 

[Richard Scott]

Foo

The only way it would be possible is for every single person on the planet to stay in one place for <insert number> of days/weeks/months (a bit like one may do with an infected computer and has happened with animal diseases before, such as foot and mouth) and is likely what some scientists would hanker for. Of course, there are many reasons why this isn't in any way practical from a human perspective

Foot and mouth isn't eliminated, it comes around every now and then.

 

[Bantamzen]

The only way it would be possible is for every single person on the planet to stay in one place for <insert number> of days/weeks/months (a bit like one may do with an infected computer and has happened with animal diseases before, such as foot and mouth) and is likely what some scientists would hanker for. Of course, there are many reasons why this isn't in any way practical from a human perspective

In the 2-3 million years humans have existed in one sub-species or another, staying in one place has never been fully achieved. Even today in countries as supposedly closed as North Korea, there is movement both legal & illegal. Trying to isolate from a virus is ultimately a futile gesture, and even potentially dangerous as you move more traffic to the unregistered or illegal, making tracing much harder.