SWR/TPE were not on the verge of collapse before the EMA’s were introduced, nor was any other TOC.
This seems to suggest you are monitoring the balance sheets of all train operators, is that right?
Firsts own financial statements suggest a degree of concern for the finances of both operators.
For South Western, "As previously reported, there is considerable uncertainty about the level of future passenger revenue growth and the revenue protection mechanisms in place, and we remain in discussions with the DfT concerning commercial and contractual remedies"
For Transpennine, "the forecast loss over the franchise term of £106m recognised as a provision in the year to 31 March 2018 remains our estimate of the financial outlook for the franchise including our expectation of the outcome of the May 2018, May 2019 and December 2019 franchise change requests. It should be noted that on adoption of IFRS16 Leases, £106m previously recognised as an onerous contract provision is now recognised as an impairment of the right of use asset.
If the settlement we achieve with the DfT and RNP is below our estimate and we do not recover the significant majority of the amounts included in our franchise change requests there would be a material impact on the reported financial results, including increases in the loss for the relevant period, the value of the impairment to the right of use assets, and the recoverability of amounts recognised as amounts recoverable on contracts. If our estimate of the settlement is not achieved the maximum additional unavoidable loss under the TPE franchise contract would be £83m, £5m lower than at the start of the year due to the repayment of Additional Funding Commitment in the first half of the year."
This was in November 2019, before the driver training issues that led to Leo Goodwin's departure.