Reform UK discussion

[telstarbox]

As we have one for the other parties...

Reform are campaigning in the Kent County Council election as they are elsewhere. From their local social media pages they seem to be doing door to door campaigning more than the Tories.

They have a series of Facebook posts with a lot of likes / comments in some cases, although it's very generic about 'common sense' and 'saving money' rather than anything specific policy points.

I'm sure they will pick up some seats but it's hard to see them gaining a majority when the Tories are so deep seated in this part of the country. How do you expect them to do in your area?

 

[Howardh]

Nationally, have Reform any policies?

Winter Fuel Allowance?
ISAs?
Tax threshold and rates?
NHS?
Transport including trains and local buses?
Defence?
Social care?
Education?

Just wondering.

 

[brad465]

Nationally, have Reform any policies?

Winter Fuel Allowance?

WFA is causing a weird voter situation: there are voters unhappy with cutting it for some previous claimants, who are now minded to vote Reform UK, even though they are not only right wing socially, but economically too, having talked about privatising the NHS and cutting taxes. They are not where voters dissatisfied with WFA and other benefit cuts should be going in protest, instead they'd be better off going Lib Dem, Green, or for an independent candidate/group who promote welfare policies.

Long term unless the party manages to properly kick sympathy with Trump, they'll be in trouble come the next general election simply for this. Election polling in Canada and Australia has seen the leading liberal/left party incumbent revive ahead of imminent elections, and Trump's rhetoric and behaviour has contributed to this. As there is no GE imminent in the UK, this hasn't happened here, but further damage Trump is likely to do in the US could easily make voters wonder if Reform would try to do the same in the UK. Then of course their opponents will jump on any opportunity to link Reform with Trump failures.

 

[Howardh]

WFA is causing a weird voter situation: there are voters unhappy with cutting it for some previous claimants, who are now minded to vote Reform UK, even though they are not only right wing socially, but economically too, having talked about privatising the NHS and cutting taxes. They are not where voters dissatisfied with WFA and other benefit cuts should be going in protest, instead they'd be better off going Lib Dem, Green, or for an independent candidate/group who promote welfare policies.

Long term unless the party manages to properly kick sympathy with Trump, they'll be in trouble come the next general election simply for this. Election polling in Canada and Australia has seen the leading liberal/left party incumbent revive ahead of imminent elections, and Trump's rhetoric and behaviour has contributed to this. As there is no GE imminent in the UK, this hasn't happened here, but further damage Trump is likely to do in the US could easily make voters wonder if Reform would try to do the same in the UK. Then of course their opponents will jump on any opportunity to link Reform with Trump failures.

How much of a possibility is it that enough Labour MP's will rebel against the PIP cuts, lose the whip and as one join the LD's? If so that would be such an upheaval that the calls for a General Election would be too loud to ignore? It's an unlikely senario, but there are a number of Lab MP's who could well lose their seats due to Labour "cuts"?

 

[Acfb]

I'm concerned about Reform TBH and am resigned to them winning in Runcorn and Helsby although we shouldn't necessarily completely overestimate their electoral prospects at the next general election as I think they'll just poll an awful lot of wasted votes in the North of England and Scotland in seats they don't actually manage to win. I think they're a shoe in in lots of seats in Kent, Essex, East Anglia and the Midlands which Labour won with a low vote share over a split opposition last year though and they have a very malign indirect influence on the body politic.

I suppose the big prizes for Reform are some of the mayoralities such as in Lincolnshire.

As I expect Labour and the Tories do very badly on May 1st I'm mainly hoping for LDs, Greens and Inds to overperform to curb Reform's momentum.

 

[alex397]

Interestingly, most of the comments online I see in support of Reform in the Kent County Council elections don’t seem to understand these are local elections, not national.
For example, many say we need to get Labour out, completely disregarding the fact that Kent County Council is run by the Conservatives. Shockingly, facts don’t seem a particular strong point amongst Reform supporters.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Nationally, have Reform any policies?
Winter Fuel Allowance?
ISAs?
Tax threshold and rates?
NHS?
Transport including trains and local buses?
Defence?
Social care?
Education?
Just wondering.

They support importing chlorinated chicken from the USA.

Nigel Farage defends allowing US chlorinated chicken into UK as part of trade deal

Reform UK leader on campaign trail as poll predicts rightwing party could be on course to win in a general election

www.theguardian.com

Nigel Farage defends allowing US chlorinated chicken into UK as part of trade deal

 

[PGAT]

New MRP poll puts Reform in the lead but of course no majority

More in Common's April MRP

Our new MRP suggests a dramatic transformation of the political landscape since last July. Based on polling of over 16,000 people, the model estimates that, were an election held today, Reform UK would win 180 seats - the largest of any party, with the Conservatives and Labour tied on 165 seats...

www.moreincommon.org.uk

Party	Seat Count	Change from 2024 result	Implied Vote Share
Reform UK	180	+175	24%
Conservative	165	+44	24%
Labour	165	-246	24%
Liberal Democrat	67	-5	13%
SNP	35	+26	2%
Independent	10	+4	4%
Plaid Cymru	5	+1	1%
Green	4	nc	8%

 

[telstarbox]

How much of a possibility is it that enough Labour MP's will rebel against the PIP cuts, lose the whip and as one join the LD's? If so that would be such an upheaval that the calls for a General Election would be too loud to ignore? It's an unlikely senario, but there are a number of Lab MP's who could well lose their seats due to Labour "cuts"?

Not happening, particularly as some of the new intake of Labour MPs are to the right of the Lib Dems. It's still the first year of the Parliament so why would they expend their political capital now? More likely that the plans will be moderated when it's debated in the next couple of months and/or maybe some MPs will abstain on the vote.

 

[dosxuk]

However much people wish there was, there is not going to be a General Election in the next 12 months. Labour are bedded in, and happy to implement the non-populist policies which they feel need to be implemented, knowing they won't have to justify them to the electorate until a few years down the line when the results can be seen. Sure, this leads to a void that Reform, as a purely populist-policy party, can take advantage of, but it's going to be a while before they get the opportunity to see that tested, and when they do, it will be contested by the other parties.

 

[TheSmiths82]

My main concern is how can I warn people about the dangers of Reform without sounding like I am in a echo chamber? I don't think there is much point in referencing Farage's alleged links to the far right or Russia as many Reform voters will probably support that. However I think we need to make a big deal with his past comments on the NHS, and the fact he is not a man of the people but just a right ring rich man who made his fortune on the stock markets.

 

[Yew]

Interestingly, most of the comments online I see in support of Reform in the Kent County Council elections don’t seem to understand these are local elections, not national.
For example, many say we need to get Labour out, completely disregarding the fact that Kent County Council is run by the Conservatives. Shockingly, facts don’t seem a particular strong point amongst Reform supporters.

Yes, I remember a few years ago, whilst the Tories were in power, people saying "I've always voted labour and nothing changes, so I'm going to vote for the Tories".

 

[Purple Train]

Interestingly, most of the comments online I see online in support of Reform in the Kent County Council elections don’t seem to understand these are local elections, not national.
For example, many say we need to get Labour out, completely disregarding the fact that Kent County Council is run by the Conservatives. Shockingly, facts don’t seem a particular strong point amongst Reform supporters.

Of course they aren't.

These are the same people who said "we've had enough of experts".
These are the same people who criticise Starmer for being too posh and out of touch, while vocally supporting the likes of Farage and Musk.
These are the same people who "hate the establishment", while vocally supporting a career politician and the most powerful man in the world.
These are the same people who harp on about "British values" without stopping to consider what respect and decency actually mean.
These are the same people who think young adults could buy a house if they stopped drinking lattes.
These are the same people who obsess over "silent majorities" of like-minded individuals.
These are the same people who are absolutely convinced that their individual voice is the voice of the people.

So why would their relationship to truth be any different on this particular issue? (Not having a go at you, alex397, this is more of a general rant )

 

[Bald Rick]

We had a Reform leaflet through the letterbox last week.

It was quite uncomfortable, both reading it, and also using it in place of the usual Andrex.

 

[brad465]

We had a Reform leaflet through the letterbox last week.

It was quite uncomfortable, both reading it, and also using it in place of the usual Andrex.

You're supposed to wipe **** off you know where, not add more to there

 

[aftv]

It was quite uncomfortable, both reading it, and also using it in place of the usual Andrex.

I tend to add some choice graffiti to the faces of the candidates on any of the Reform leaflets we get through the door. Next time (assuming Farage doesnt jump ship) try to guess if the candidate is a fruitcake or a loony. Its great fun

 

[DelW]

... he is not a man of the people but just a right ring rich man who made his fortune on the stock markets.

I'm baffled why so many people appear to believe that a "party"* set up by, run by, and promoting the agenda of, a clique of over privileged multi millionaires, would have any intention of benefitting the majority of the people. Even the obvious counter-example from the US, where Trump's policies are starting to damage the lives of millions to the benefit of his rich cronies, doesn't seem to have brought the reality home to them. I only hope that realisation does develop before "Reform" have the opportunity to wreak similar damage here.

*AIUI "Reform" was set up not as a conventional party but as a for-profit business (prop: N Farage). I did read about a proposal to change that, but I don't want to contaminate my search history by looking for updates

 

[Cloud Strife]

I'm baffled why so many people appear to believe that a "party"* set up by, run by, and promoting the agenda of, a clique of over privileged multi millionaires, would have any intention of benefitting the majority of the people. Even the obvious counter-example from the US, where Trump's policies are starting to damage the lives of millions to the benefit of his rich cronies, doesn't seem to have brought the reality home to them. I only hope that realisation does develop before "Reform" have the opportunity to wreak similar damage here.

It is genuinely mystifying. I do think most of their success (and similar parties) is simply down to the fact that they promise very easy solutions to complicated problems, but they never quite tell the truth about what it involves.

A friend is a councillor in a run down ex-mining town in the North from the Lib Dems, and while he enjoys a lot of personal support because he's very hands-on, he's also experiencing more and more people believing in Reform fairy tales. For instance, someone told him recently that a Reform type had promised them that they will reopen the mines and provide jobs to everyone. Explaining macroeconomics on the doorstep won't work, they want 'simple' jobs, not economics.

The problem is: how do you explain that the identity of the town (mining) is now worthless? Reform must be good because they'll reopen the mine, it doesn't matter that it's an obvious lie (the mine is simply not viable, even as a cooperative) or that the future is in renewables, the Reform electorate know that their grandfather worked down the mine and that their father did an apprenticeship there and that's that.

 

[brad465]

It is genuinely mystifying. I do think most of their success (and similar parties) is simply down to the fact that they promise very easy solutions to complicated problems, but they never quite tell the truth about what it involves.

A friend is a councillor in a run down ex-mining town in the North from the Lib Dems, and while he enjoys a lot of personal support because he's very hands-on, he's also experiencing more and more people believing in Reform fairy tales. For instance, someone told him recently that a Reform type had promised them that they will reopen the mines and provide jobs to everyone. Explaining macroeconomics on the doorstep won't work, they want 'simple' jobs, not economics.

The problem is: how do you explain that the identity of the town (mining) is now worthless? Reform must be good because they'll reopen the mine, it doesn't matter that it's an obvious lie (the mine is simply not viable, even as a cooperative) or that the future is in renewables, the Reform electorate know that their grandfather worked down the mine and that their father did an apprenticeship there and that's that.

They certainly thrive of the human psyche of living in the past. What these former mining towns and other run-down areas need is a complete rebrand and modernisation into something new for the present and future, not the revival of a bygone era.

 

[Bald Rick]

The problem is: how do you explain that the identity of the town (mining) is now worthless? Reform must be good because they'll reopen the mine, it doesn't matter that it's an obvious lie (the mine is simply not viable, even as a cooperative) or that the future is in renewables, the Reform electorate know that their grandfather worked down the mine and that their father did an apprenticeship there and that's that.

This example is particularly galling as you can see how it will lead to … ‘I support Reform because they will reopen the mines so that other people can work down in them’

 

[Yew]

A friend is a councillor in a run down ex-mining town in the North from the Lib Dems, and while he enjoys a lot of personal support because he's very hands-on, he's also experiencing more and more people believing in Reform fairy tales. For instance, someone told him recently that a Reform type had promised them that they will reopen the mines and provide jobs to everyone. Explaining macroeconomics on the doorstep won't work, they want 'simple' jobs, not economics.

The problem is: how do you explain that the identity of the town (mining) is now worthless? Reform must be good because they'll reopen the mine, it doesn't matter that it's an obvious lie (the mine is simply not viable, even as a cooperative) or that the future is in renewables, the Reform electorate know that their grandfather worked down the mine and that their father did an apprenticeship there and that's that.

I think that part of the problem is that most of the signs are that Kier Starmers is a party that follows right-wing neoliberal economics. This is a policy that has ultimately failed many areas of the country, as skilled industries have been closed down, and the 'hand of the free market' quite simply has not provided the sort of quality jobs that used to exist - instead it's mostly service work, and low-skilled industries without technical progression opportunities.
Reopening the Mines may be a fantasy, but when nobody is talking about building EV battery factories, or wind turbine manufacturing facilities in the area, I can see why such stories are appealing.

I'll admit, this combination of right-wing social policies, and left-wing economics that seems to be more present in reform is a little worrying - there is a real risk that the ineffectual immigrant bashing get the credit for positive progress in those sorts of policies.

 

[brad465]

This example is particularly galling as you can see how it will lewd to … ‘I support Reform because they will reopen the mines so that other people can work down in them’

I saw a poll in the US recently that pretty much described that. They asked two questions, one being "Do you think we need more manufacturing in this country?" A comfortable majority said yes. The second was something like "Would you work in a manufacturing job if available?" The same people polled was a majority saying no.

 

[Yew]

They certainly thrive of the human psyche of living in the past. What these former mining towns and other run-down areas need is a complete rebrand and modernisation into something new for the present and future, not the revival of a bygone era.

Unfortunately, nobody is proposing strong actions on that front, preferring to leave these to the mercy of market economics - it seems that we're in a situation where Reform are capitalising on this.


Now whether this would actually be Reform policy if they got in to power, or not, is a different question. It certainly feels like Reform Candidates are free with promises, especially for things that aren't in their manifestos.

They have a series of Facebook posts with a lot of likes / comments in some cases, although it's very generic about 'common sense' and 'saving money' rather than anything specific policy points.

Unfortunately "common sense" is a movable feast, and I'd daresay that what Investment Bankers like Farrage consider as 'common sense' is probably a way away from what his voters have in mind.


Vagueness is certainly a ploy they use, Voters can imagine common sense policies, and if they don't happen, then Farrage will say that he never said he'd do X.

 

[Thirteen]

People seemed to be think Farage will be PM in 2029 but TBH because of how FPTP works, it's very hard for a small party to go from single figures to forming a Government.

 

[dosxuk]

Those who think Farage will be PM in 2029 are ignoring the very large "anyone-but-Farage" grouping who would tactically vote to prevent such an outcome.

 

[Thirteen]

Those who think Farage will be PM in 2029 are ignoring the very large "anyone-but-Farage" grouping who would tactically vote to prevent such an outcome.

Trump winning the US Presidential Election caused people to go into a tizzy about the prospect of Reform forming a Government even though the US voting system differs a lot from the UK

 

[Harpo]

Reform’s biggest hurdle will be in finding a swathe of people who can equal Farage’s capabilities as an unflappable snake oil salesman, or as his own bank (Coutts) called him, ‘a disingenuous grifter’, something that most would consider libellous but which Farage never took them to court for.

 

[iwasyoungonce]

The Reform candidates I know standing in the Local Elections are all reporting support for Reform on the doorstep with very little to no negative reactions face to face.

Farage is just a Poundland Trump

 

[TheSmiths82]

Those who think Farage will be PM in 2029 are ignoring the very large "anyone-but-Farage" grouping who would tactically vote to prevent such an outcome.

Hopefully but then I know a lot left wing voters are very passionate and there is a very strong "I am never voting Labour again" movement at the moment due to how they have handled certain issues. I am worried that the Green's and Lib Dems will really split that vote, but hopefully wanting to keep Farage out will take precedence.

 

[ChrisC]

At County Council elections, in the council ward in the part of Nottinghamshire where I live, the Conservatives have always won with a large majority. At the last election in 2021 the share of the votes were Conservative 68%, Labour 20%, Greens 7% and Lib Dem 5%. It will be interesting on 1st May to see how the share of the votes may change and what percentage Reform get. The Conservatives have always had big support from the local farmers but this time one of the well known local farmers is standing as the Reform candidate! I think I will probably vote Conservative to hopefully stop him winning for Reform. I don‘t know how much support this man will get from the other farmers, but they certainly won’t be voting Labour!