Return to Education

[Mojo]

It was announced a few days ago that schools will be allowed to close to students a day early for the Christmas holidays, with school not being compulsory next Friday, the 18th of December. This has been left to the schools to decide what to do rather than a direction from Government.

The school my other half teaches at will be closed for students but there will be an Inset day. I think his school jumped the gun as they decided a few weeks ago that everyone would get today off as a shopping day!

 

[Bantamzen]

Given that at the time we were discussing the full reopening of schools in September, I assumed you were telling me that during September, you felt that hospitalisations and deaths would reduce.

And we still are in this thread.

You've since clarified that you were not referring to September and I have asked you when you believe your prediction of hospitalisations and deaths reducing will happen. You've now given a reply where I think you are saying that you need some more data to back up your claim.

What I see from the graphs you link to is that hospitalisations and deaths increased from about September onwards.They decreased towards the end of November after a few weeks of lockdown.

What I also see is that the gradient of the curves is more shallow than back in March/April. You can argue as to why that might be, but I think that's probably because of some of the restrictions that have been put in place, such as more people working from home.

What is it that you see in the graphs you have referred to?

Well the first thing I see is that as testing goes up, the rates of infections vs hospitalisations vs deaths do not follow the same gradients. Indeed there is a marked difference between the sharp rise in September of infections versus offset rises in hospitalisations & deaths. Now I know I didn't mention rates in my original post, and perhaps I should have. However this shows clearly that as the virus spreads (or at least in those that we actually test, it is very likely many people will have had it without being tested), the IFR (which is an important measure) is decreasing. So with going back to my original post, as more people have the virus so deaths and hospitalisations will decrease over time. I can't tell you the exact point, nor do I rule out possible spikes and troughs, and as vaccines are now being distributed it will become more difficult to estimate a point this would have happened without intervention.

But moving onto my later point, there are new variables to include into the equation. We know that in the early stages of the pandemic, the NHS dialled back a lot of non-covid treatments and procedures in order to release capacity for any "tsunami" (and phrase used by various politicians and their advisers) of cvoid cases, a "tsunami" that did not emerge even when we relaxed restrictions. Some of these deferred treatments may well have led onto more serious conditions, and in the subsequent upscaling of non-covid provision it is entirely possible that such people suffering as a result of being on extended waiting lists have found themselves hospitalised, maybe even sadly dying but also exposed to & tested for covid. Which is why this data is so very important to understand what is happening in the second "wave".

 

[sjpowermac]

And we still are in this thread.


Well the first thing I see is that as testing goes up, the rates of infections vs hospitalisations vs deaths do not follow the same gradients. Indeed there is a marked difference between the sharp rise in September of infections versus offset rises in hospitalisations & deaths. Now I know I didn't mention rates in my original post, and perhaps I should have. However this shows clearly that as the virus spreads (or at least in those that we actually test, it is very likely many people will have had it without being tested), the IFR (which is an important measure) is decreasing. So with going back to my original post, as more people have the virus so deaths and hospitalisations will decrease over time. I can't tell you the exact point, nor do I rule out possible spikes and troughs, and as vaccines are now being distributed it will become more difficult to estimate a point this would have happened without intervention.

But moving onto my later point, there are new variables to include into the equation. We know that in the early stages of the pandemic, the NHS dialled back a lot of non-covid treatments and procedures in order to release capacity for any "tsunami" (and phrase used by various politicians and their advisers) of cvoid cases, a "tsunami" that did not emerge even when we relaxed restrictions. Some of these deferred treatments may well have led onto more serious conditions, and in the subsequent upscaling of non-covid provision it is entirely possible that such people suffering as a result of being on extended waiting lists have found themselves hospitalised, maybe even sadly dying but also exposed to & tested for covid. Which is why this data is so very important to understand what is happening in the second "wave".

In summary, I think you’ve now admitted that your original post omitted some key information.

I notice that you mentioned second “wave”: do you believe that there has been one?

In addition, as I understand it, rates of infection are now highest amongst children in the 11-18 age group. Do you believe that the full re-opening of schools has had any influence on that?

As always, for the avoidance of doubt, I believe that schools should remain open, but I’m genuinely curious as to what part they are playing in the pandemic.

 

[Bantamzen]

In summary, I think you’ve now admitted that your original post omitted some key information.

I notice that you mentioned second “wave”: do you believe that there has been one?

In addition, as I understand it, rates of infection are now highest amongst children in the 11-18 age group. Do you believe that the full re-opening of schools has had any influence on that?

As always, for the avoidance of doubt, I believe that schools should remain open, but I’m genuinely curious as to what part they are playing in the pandemic.

Well OK, my original post did not factor in some elements such as I mentioned above, particularly where there is potentially an influx of poorly people left waiting for months whilst the health care system felt there were more pressing priorities. Only now are we learning the scale of this backlog, and it's potential impact.

And for this reason we cannot yet look towards the re-opening of education services as a major cause of hospitalisation and deaths.

 

[hwl]

In addition, as I understand it, rates of infection are now highest amongst children in the 11-18 age group. Do you believe that the full re-opening of schools has had any influence on that?

As always, for the avoidance of doubt, I believe that schools should remain open, but I’m genuinely curious as to what part they are playing in the pandemic.

Agreed on keeping the schools open.
I think the answer we are going to discover when more analysis is done is that they play a significant part in transmission chains (as with many other infections) hence vaccinating secondary school age children might be very effective as part of a phase 2 programme especially if vaccination does noticeably reduce transmission rates as opposed to just case rates (what is measured so far). The US are already (as Donald doesn't really care any more) thinking that vaccinating the 12-18 age group might be highly effectively overall and have started trialing the Moderna vaccine in 12-18 age groups for this reason.

 

[Richard Scott]

Agreed on keeping the schools open.
I think the answer we are going to discover when more analysis is done is that they play a significant part in transmission chains (as with many other infections) hence vaccinating secondary school age children might be very effective as part of a phase 2 programme especially if vaccination does noticeably reduce transmission rates as opposed to just case rates (what is measured so far). The US are already (as Donald doesn't really care any more) thinking that vaccinating the 12-18 age group might be highly effectively overall and have started trialing the Moderna vaccine in 12-18 age groups for this reason.

I think you'll probably find they don't. In local school all cases had no connection to each other all being due to infection from family.

 

[sjpowermac]

I think you'll probably find they don't. In local school all cases had no connection to each other all being due to infection from family.

How do you justify extrapolating what’s happening at your local school to what’s happening nationally?

And for this reason we cannot yet look towards the re-opening of education services as a major cause of hospitalisation and deaths.

So to be clear, are you saying that you don’t believe that schools have played a part in the spread of the virus?

 

[Richard Scott]

How do you justify extrapolating what’s happening at your local school to what’s happening nationally?


So to be clear, are you saying that you don’t believe that schools have played a part in the spread of the virus?

No I don't, from what I've experienced schools seem to be a scapegoat. What's been interesting is any cases resulting in others isolating hasn't resulted in additional cases i.e. when those in same class have been sent home not one of them has developed the illness. So in a number of cases where people have mixed not one additional case has been caused.
If you have some hard facts I'd be interested, I said they probably don't not definitely didn't so open to different evidence.

 

[sjpowermac]

No I don't, from what I've experienced schools seem to be a scapegoat. What's been interesting is any cases resulting in others isolating hasn't resulted in additional cases i.e. when those in same class have been sent home not one of them has developed the illness. So in a number of cases where people have mixed not one additional case has been caused.
If you have some hard facts I'd be interested, I said they probably don't not definitely didn't so open to different evidence.

I don’t think that schools have been made a scapegoat at all, that’s largely been reserved for the hospitality industry. School managements have been absolutely desperate to push the narrative that you’ve given.

You make a good point about hard facts, they are strangely hard to come by in relation to schools and the pandemic, if it were such a ‘good news’ story I’m sure the information would be more readily available...

Agreed on keeping the schools open.
I think the answer we are going to discover when more analysis is done is that they play a significant part in transmission chains (as with many other infections) hence vaccinating secondary school age children might be very effective as part of a phase 2 programme especially if vaccination does noticeably reduce transmission rates as opposed to just case rates (what is measured so far). The US are already (as Donald doesn't really care any more) thinking that vaccinating the 12-18 age group might be highly effectively overall and have started trialing the Moderna vaccine in 12-18 age groups for this reason.

I suspect that you are right, though information about the role of schools is strangely hard to find...

 

[Bantamzen]

How do you justify extrapolating what’s happening at your local school to what’s happening nationally?


So to be clear, are you saying that you don’t believe that schools have played a part in the spread of the virus?

The return to education may well have played part in the spread, but we were discussing hospitalisations and deaths.

 

[sjpowermac]

The return to education may well have played part in the spread, but we were discussing hospitalisations and deaths. I really don't think there is any more point in this exchange as you keep changing your question.

We have already established that your original post was at best inaccurate (something you did your best to hide).

My subsequent question, about the role of schools in spreading the virus, was in relation to your posts from August, where you had plenty to say on the topic.

Here’s a little reminder of your thoughts at the time.

A summer camp in the US is not typical of a British school, so is not a good example.



In countries that tried to suppress the virus more heavily, it is entirely possible that something like schools opening might well cause an increase in cases, especially if intensive testing takes place.



There is little doubt public transport will take a hit, we don't need the schools reopening to tell us that, the government has made it very clear to large swaths of the public that it is scary and dangerous, and will likely result in an insta-death.

Seriously though, this is one of the kind of articles that get my blood boiling. Lazy hacks searching the web for a bit of confirmation bias to spoon feed their readership, particularly those scared daft by the government and looking for any click bait to back up their excuses to stay as much in isolation as possible. Yes kids can carry the virus, yes they can potentially spread it, and in very, very extreme cases a handful might even succumb to it. Most however will not, and a stark choice lies in front of the world. Hide them away until the nasty virus goes away whilst risking their education and future, or get them learning & interacting again at a statistically insignificant risk thy might get poorly (which they might from many other pathogens).

Extreme enough for you?

 

[Bantamzen]

We have already established that your original post was at best inaccurate (something you did your best to hide).

Who is this "we"? Don't you mean "you", and for the record you established nothing other than to move your question around to suit.

My subsequent question, about the role of schools in spreading the virus, was in relation to your posts from August, where you had plenty to say on the topic.

Here’s a little reminder of your thoughts at the time.

I'm flattered that you follow my posts so intently, I really am. But I'm really unsure what point you are trying to prove other than to make yourself feel superior.

 

[hwl]

The return to education may well have played part in the spread, but we were discussing hospitalisations and deaths.

Earlier in the Autumn it took 3-4 weeks for high cases in the under 25s in an area to reach the 65+ age groups with hospitalisation and death following in the weeks after that.

We are probably about to rediscover this again in East London / Essex.

 

[Bantamzen]

Earlier in the Autumn it took 3-4 weeks for high cases in the under 25s in an area to reach the 65+ age groups with hospitalisation and death following in the weeks after that.

We are probably about to rediscover this again in East London / Essex.

So the schools there are only now about to open?

 

[hwl]

I think you'll probably find they don't. In local school all cases had no connection to each other all being due to infection from family.

Around 60% of transmission is within the home and is largely unavoidable without vaccines that are effective at reducing transmission. (Vaccination breaking home transmissions is therefore very important for a return to normal and the rate at which it happens).

The question is therefore where is the other 40% occurring and where can those effectively be reduced.

School isn't just about being in the classroom / school but about the whole going to school experience including travel.

Given Matt Hancock's comments on school age case rates in East London / Essex in the last few days it looks like DoH, SAGE, T&T suspect it is widely spreading in schools given that adult case rates are average /below average in those areas (and hospitalisation and death rates low compared to the rest of the country) but under 18 case numbers are sky high.
How do the under 18 case numbers get sky high on their own if they aren't passing it to each other?

The mass school related testing programme in East London / Essex that started on Friday with both lateral flow and PCR for each person should prove interesting if the data is analysed.

So the schools there are only now about to open?

As above, case rates in the school age groups in those areas are very high but average or below average in other age groups in the area.

 

[Richard Scott]

School isn't just about being in the classroom / school but about the whole going to school experience including travel.

No but none of our cases in local area have been attributed to that either. Every one can be traced back to the home. I know just looking at one area isn't scientific but surely we'd have had at least one case from school contact?

 

[Typhoon]

It was announced a few days ago that schools will be allowed to close to students a day early for the Christmas holidays, with school not being compulsory next Friday, the 18th of December. This has been left to the schools to decide what to do rather than a direction from Government.

The school my other half teaches at will be closed for students but there will be an Inset day. I think his school jumped the gun as they decided a few weeks ago that everyone would get today off as a shopping day!

An institution seeing sense. From my (distant) memories, nothing much happens in any case (bar the annual totting up of how many Christmas cards each staff member got). Inset day would avoid the threat in today's Telegraph 'Schools face being sued if they close early" (shown in https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-55283043).

Here in Kent we have schools closed as well as whole year's sent home because of the number of staff and students forced to self-isolate. Local news has featured at least one head who has used teaching assistants as well as non-teaching staff in front of classes. We are not helped by the selective school structure so there are students in Faversham who travel through Sittingbourne to Maidstone for a single sex selective education. even though selective education is available in both Faversham and Sittingbourne (both in Swale - 630 cases in 100k), Maidstone - 443 cases in 100k. Maidstone. being the county town, also attracts students from many surrounding areas. Bussing students around is a way of life so, because the local school is oversubscribed. some students are bussed into neighbouring Thanet (418 cases in 100k). Now this may not cause a lot of infection but surely just one transmission between students may cause the virus to be transmitted between one household and another, maybe some distance away.

No but none of our cases in local area have been attributed to that either. Every one can be traced back to the home. I know just looking at one area isn't scientific but surely we'd have had at least one case from school contact?

I would be interested in knowing how they know that that is definitely the case. No school/ college, no work, no hospitality. If that is widely true, the rules we have been given are fairly pointless - no families mixing fixes everything?

 

[Richard Scott]

I would be interested in knowing how they know that that is definitely the case. No school/ college, no work, no hospitality. If that is widely true, the rules we have been given are fairly pointless - no families mixing fixes everything?

Fairly small area so news travels and a number of cases can be attributed to a 'gathering' and then passed on to the children.

 

[sjpowermac]

Who is this "we"? Don't you mean "you", and for the record you established nothing other than to move your question around to suit.


I'm flattered that you follow my posts so intently, I really am. But I'm really unsure what point you are trying to prove other than to make yourself feel superior.

I actually do regard some of your posts as very informative and definitely a cut above the more hysterical elements of the forum.

It does strike me as strange though the way that in this case you seem so reluctant to give an opinion.

Fairly small area so news travels and a number of cases can be attributed to a 'gathering' and then passed on to the children.

Same old story, extrapolation of what’s happening in a local area doesn’t really work.

Back in August it was made to sound as though once a case was found in a school then all the contacts of the child would be offered a test. That was certainly the message put out in my area. Strange that this never happened.

If schools are so ‘COVID secure’ as some posters are claiming, then what would there be to hide? If it were possible to show that schools are not playing a part in transmission then we could also consider getting schools back to a proper normal where all year groups in all schools do science in science labs, DT in workshops and so on...

Around 60% of transmission is within the home and is largely unavoidable without vaccines that are effective at reducing transmission. (Vaccination breaking home transmissions is therefore very important for a return to normal and the rate at which it happens).

The question is therefore where is the other 40% occurring and where can those effectively be reduced.

School isn't just about being in the classroom / school but about the whole going to school experience including travel.

Given Matt Hancock's comments on school age case rates in East London / Essex in the last few days it looks like DoH, SAGE, T&T suspect it is widely spreading in schools given that adult case rates are average /below average in those areas (and hospitalisation and death rates low compared to the rest of the country) but under 18 case numbers are sky high.
How do the under 18 case numbers get sky high on their own if they aren't passing it to each other?

The mass school related testing programme in East London / Essex that started on Friday with both lateral flow and PCR for each person should prove interesting if the data is analysed.


As above, case rates in the school age groups in those areas are very high but average or below average in other age groups in the area.

I suspect the data won’t be analysed, because it isn’t in anybody’s interest to do so.

 

[DB]

I actually do regard some of your posts as very informative and definitely a cut above the more hysterical elements of the forum.

It does strike me as strange though the way that in this case you seem so reluctant to give an opinion.


Same old story, extrapolation of what’s happening in a local area doesn’t really work.

Back in August it was made to sound as though once a case was found in a school then all the contacts of the child would be offered a test. That was certainly the message put out in my area. Strange that this never happened.

If schools are so ‘COVID secure’ as some posters are claiming, then what would there be to hide? If it were possible to show that schools are not playing a part in transmission then we could also consider getting schools back to a proper normal where all year groups in all schools do science in science labs, DT in workshops and so on...


I suspect the data won’t be analysed, because it isn’t in anybody’s interest to do so.

If there was widespread transmission in schools, there would be plenty of examples of clusters associated with particular schools. Can you point us to reports of any of these?

 

[Bantamzen]

I actually do regard some of your posts as very informative and definitely a cut above the more hysterical elements of the forum.

It does strike me as strange though the way that in this case you seem so reluctant to give an opinion.

Just to clarify, you are wanting me to predict when deaths will eventually come down?

 

[hwl]

I suspect the data won’t be analysed, because it isn’t in anybody’s interest to do so.

They are now looking to do a primary age testing trial which suggest someone might do some analysis.

Germany has now decided to close the physical aspect of schools hence they probably have some data.


Not looking at environments with large numbers of people in contact for extended periods would be some what illogical. Especially if you are looking for the most effective way to roll out a "phase 2" wide spread vaccination programme in several months. a disruption free summer term would be very good for schools.

 

[yorkie]

If Germany is closing schools, they're idiots.

If they're just closing them a week early and plan to go back after the break, then fair enough I suppose.

The school my other half teaches at will be closed for students but there will be an Inset day. I think his school jumped the gun as they decided a few weeks ago that everyone would get today off as a shopping day!

My best guess is that the day off as a shopping day is in lieu of time worked during 'twilight' sessions, such as open evenings, parents evenings, and other events.

Friday the 18th would be in addition to that.

 

[hwl]

If Germany is closing schools, they're idiots.

If they're just closing them a week early and plan to go back after the break, then fair enough I suppose.

Just a week early.

 

[sjpowermac]

If there was widespread transmission in schools, there would be plenty of examples of clusters associated with particular schools. Can you point us to reports of any of these?

I did ask in an earlier post if anyone knew where I might find information on the very topic you mentioned. I can certainly point you to some local examples of fudging of figures...

Just to clarify, you are wanting me to predict when deaths will eventually come down?

No, you’ve already said you are not sure. I’m interested in what your opinion is on the role that schools have played in the pandemic. Back in the summer you were very dismissive of the posts I made.

They are now looking to do a primary age testing trial which suggest someone might do some analysis.

Germany has now decided to close the physical aspect of schools hence they probably have some data.


Not looking at environments with large numbers of people in contact for extended periods would be some what illogical. Especially if you are looking for the most effective way to roll out a "phase 2" wide spread vaccination programme in several months. a disruption free summer term would be very good for schools.

Logic takes second place to much of what is going on, but I hope that you are correct.

If Germany is closing schools, they're idiots.

If they're just closing them a week early and plan to go back after the break, then fair enough I suppose.

My best guess is that the day off as a shopping day is in lieu of time worked during 'twilight' sessions, such as open evenings, parents evenings, and other events.

Friday the 18th would be in addition to that.

Agreed on both points.

 

[Richard Scott]

I actually do regard some of your posts as very informative and definitely a cut above the more hysterical elements of the forum.

It does strike me as strange though the way that in this case you seem so reluctant to give an opinion.


Same old story, extrapolation of what’s happening in a local area doesn’t really work.

If schools are so ‘COVID secure’ as some posters are claiming, then what would there be to hide? If it were possible to show that schools are not playing a part in transmission then we could also consider getting schools back to a proper normal where all year groups in all schools do science in science labs, DT in workshops and so on...

Maybe not but seems odd no case can be traced to school transmission when seems a lot of stories sighting schools as big transmitters, you think there's be at least one case.
Yes, do get schools back to normal, it's what the kids need, all this in one week out the next is causing havoc with their education and wellbeing.

 

[sjpowermac]

Maybe not but seems odd no case can be traced to school transmission when seems a lot of stories sighting schools as big transmitters, you think there's be at least one case.
Yes, do get schools back to normal, it's what the kids need, all this in one week out the next is causing havoc with their education and wellbeing.

As mentioned previously, school leadership teams are absolutely desperate to not to have their schools sited as the source of an outbreak.

You talk as though a team of expert contact tracers descends on a school once a case is noted. The reality is that schools ring up a help line that’s staffed by people following a flow chart.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

As of Friday, one of our local secondary schools currently has 3 positive cases with approximately 170 pupils isolating (out of 1250). I expect this number may have risen over the weekend, but no updates have been provided on their socials or via text.

 

[Bantamzen]

No, you’ve already said you are not sure. I’m interested in what your opinion is on the role that schools have played in the pandemic. Back in the summer you were very dismissive of the posts I made.

OK, so what part has education played in the spread? Well on the face of it one conclusion could be that the return to it played a significant part. However education wasn't the only factor in both the spread & detection, with the end of summer there were a lot more interactions in workplaces, sporting events, more stores being open, pubs, restaurants, plus of course deteriorating weather. Add to that increased and more focused testing and any number of factors might come into play in determining what factors affect spread the most. And in all honesty we could speculate from now until the cows come home, without more data from areas like track & trace we can do no more than guess.

 

[Richard Scott]

As mentioned previously, school leadership teams are absolutely desperate to not to have their schools sited as the source of an outbreak.

You talk as though a team of expert contact tracers descends on a school once a case is noted. The reality is that schools ring up a help line that’s staffed by people following a flow chart.

I'm perfectly aware of what happens but knowing how cases are handled I don't doubt for one minute it's all above board. Don't need expert tracers as know who the cases are and likely cause. Knowing who the cases are will rule out or give likelihood of it being a school transmission or not.