Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[Darandio]

Thanks, just comes up with a story about NATO for me.

It's a constantly updating politics page, you need to scroll down.

 

[Snow1964]

Really wish Rishi would hurry up and announce the date of the election. Need to get the day after booked off from work!

Unfortunately, the way he dithers, fair chance it will run on towards the last available date, before election is called.

 

[Typhoon]

Im looking forward to all that lot being trounced by another party

I'm just hoping it is those on the splinter groups - Truss' misnamed Pop Con, Lord Cruddas' Conservative Democratic Organisation, the New Conservatives, whatever Berry's and Kruger's groups are called - that are hardest hit and it is the moderates who form the bulk of the opposition front bench. Someone will need to hold Labour to account, and I don't want it to be those that think giving big tax cuts to the richest is the way forward.

That link doesn't work.

Try https://news.sky.com/story/labour-f...-predicting-tory-wipeout-at-election-13107202

 

[simonw]

I'm just hoping it is those on the splinter groups - Truss' misnamed Pop Con, Lord Cruddas' Conservative Democratic Organisation, the New Conservatives, whatever Berry's and Kruger's groups are called - that are hardest hit and it is the moderates who form the bulk of the opposition front bench. Someone will need to hold Labour to account, and I don't want it to be those that think giving big tax cuts to the richest is the way forward.


Try https://news.sky.com/story/labour-f...-predicting-tory-wipeout-at-election-13107202

Thanks

 

[nw1]

Unfortunately, the way he dithers, fair chance it will run on towards the last available date, before election is called.

I still doubt very much it'll be January, with a Christmas campaigning period.

I'd say the probabilities are October 60%, June 30%, all other times 10%.

The longer he leaves it the more and more disarray and fighting there will be in the Tory Party. I don't think they can recover now and to be honest their best chance of avoiding a big defeat is to hold a June election when it's going into summer and the weather might (????) finally be better, hence people will be more optimistic and won't take out their woes on the incumbents so much.

More realistically though I suspect it will be Oct, but absolutely no later.

If the Tories want less than 100 seats, then a Jan election is the surest way of doing it. If they want to try to achieve 200, then a summer election might perhaps give them that chance if it's a bad week for Labour and the sun's out.

And I suspect Sunak is so weak that it won't be him who decides anyway. It'll be stronger and more forceful characters within the Tory Party who can run rings around him.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I'm just hoping it is those on the splinter groups - Truss' misnamed Pop Con, Lord Cruddas' Conservative Democratic Organisation, the New Conservatives, whatever Berry's and Kruger's groups are called - that are hardest hit and it is the moderates who form the bulk of the opposition front bench. Someone will need to hold Labour to account, and I don't want it to be those that think giving big tax cuts to the richest is the way forward.


Try https://news.sky.com/story/labour-f...-predicting-tory-wipeout-at-election-13107202

Indeed i have to say much as i want to gloat about Torys losing seats it won't be healthy for the government to be dominated by Labour either.

 

[nw1]

Really wish Rishi would hurry up and announce the date of the election. Need to get the day after booked off from work!

It's a shame they don't hold elections on Fridays.

 

[oldman]

Indeed i have to say much as i want to gloat about Torys losing seats it won't be healthy for the government to be dominated by Labour either.

It worked OK after 1997. A narrow majority and Starmer would have to govern with half an eye on the next election - a good majority and the probability of at least two terms will give him the space to be a bit bolder.

 

[Busaholic]

Really wish Rishi would hurry up and announce the date of the election. Need to get the day after booked off from work!

And to put the champagne on ice in readiness. My mail today contained 'newsletters' from both the Tories and LibDems, with an email from my Tory MP yesterday too. Smells to me like they're getting prepared for an election in June or July.

It's a shame they don't hold elections on Fridays.

I don't believe General Elections have to be on a Thursday, unlike local elections which have to take place on the first Thursday in May. Some Labour MPs attempted to change the day of the December 2019 one to the Monday before its eventual date.

 

[Gloster]

I don't believe General Elections have to be on a Thursday, unlike local elections which have to take place on the first Thursday in May. Some Labour MPs attempted to change the day of the December 2019 one to the Monday before its eventual date.

There is no law to say that a general election should be held on a Thursday, but it is the convention. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011 did say that they had to be held on the first Thursday in May, but that has been repealed. However, to switch it to another day would have the smell of and produce accusations of trying to sow confusion for electoral advantage. But the Conservatives might be that desperate…

 

[brad465]

Indeed i have to say much as i want to gloat about Torys losing seats it won't be healthy for the government to be dominated by Labour either.

As someone who is PR group campaigner, I'd find it hilarious if the Tories do so bad they become the champions of PR.

 

[Thirteen]

In Australia and New Zealand, elections are on a Saturday which means people don't need to have the day off to vote.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Indeed i have to say much as i want to gloat about Torys losing seats it won't be healthy for the government to be dominated by Labour either.

Certainly not the current incarnation of labour which I personally see as a slightly dangerous entity who for me have not implemented the necessary reforms as a party and who really don't appear to me to have much of a long term plan, if they'd got either of these houses more in order than I might be happier about it but as it is they flip flop far too much and I cannot stand either the leader or a deputy and indeed much of the probable front bench

The prospect of a further term under the current guys of the conservatives doesn't thrill me either but I'm not pursuing change for changes sake

Nor am I convinced about electoral reform to some kind of pr system either, initially a supporter although not nearly as enthusiastic as other people of my generation at the time, I watched the so-called Farah PR system deliver multiple majoritys in the Scottish parliament for what are to all intents and purposes a single issue party, and whilst this is not the time and the place for getting into that debate or topic too deeply is a single issue party in a senior position healthy? For my money I would say not

 

[KashmireHawker]

There is no law to say that a general election should be held on a Thursday, but it is the convention. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011 did say that they had to be held on the first Thursday in May, but that has been repealed. However, to switch it to another day would have the smell of and produce accusations of trying to sow confusion for electoral advantage. But the Conservatives might be that desperate…

That is correct, with the final deadline for the next election being Tuesday 28th January. Let’s hope for everyone’s sake that they don’t stretch it that far!

 

[Snow1964]

In Australia and New Zealand, elections are on a Saturday which means people don't need to have the day off to vote.

For General elections in UK can vote from 7am to 10pm, which generally allows people to vote before or after work, and majority of polling stations/places are within mile of where people live. (Rural areas might have to travel further)

 

[uglymonkey]

And no matter what time you get up, the sitting MP always gets back in as you live in a "safe seat" and you can vote to increase the MP's vote by one , or one of the other candidates by one vote, but the result is still the same.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

In Australia and New Zealand, elections are on a Saturday which means people don't need to have the day off to vote.

... unless you work in a shop or anywhere where most of your customers are tourists

I watched the so-called Farah PR system deliver multiple majoritys in the Scottish parliament for what are to all intents and purposes a single issue party, and whilst this is not the time and the place for getting into that debate or topic too deeply is a single issue party in a senior position healthy? For my money I would say not

But think what the SNPs majority in the Scottish Parliament would be if it was elected on FPTP! The SNP would have almost every seat, with no credible opposition. The semi-PR system in Scotland has at least ensured that the SNP have never been able to get that much more than half the seats, allowing a strong opposition to exist. And I believe a truly proportional PR system would never have given the SNP a majority, since they've never got more than 50% of the vote.

 

[telstarbox]

Latest UK poll has Conservatives crashing to 155 seats if General Election was held tomorrow, and lots of Cabinet ministers would lose their seats including

Politics latest: Big Tory names predicted to lose seats in another disastrous poll for Sunak

A mega new YouGov poll has forecast Labour would win more than 400 seats if the general election were held tomorrow. The Conservative Party would crash to just 155 seats, meaning 210 sitting MPs would lose their jobs - among them multiple cabinet ministers.

news.sky.com

The MRP is interesting but really you can see the writing on the wall from the Redfield & Wilton polling of the "Red Wall" seats. In 2019 these 30-40 seats got the Tory majority over the line to 359 seats (326 being the threshold for a majority).

In the 2019 election the Tories won these seats with an average lead of 9% which is still marginal seat territory. Some of them were on very fine margins such as Bury North (105) and South (402). By 2022 this had turned into a Labour lead of around 10% and since Christmas that has grown to 20% or higher.

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Snow1964]

The YouGov poll suggests labour will get around 400 seats, and Conservatives 155

For comparison in 1997 Labour got 418, Conservatives 165 (of 659 seats, there are now 650 seats).

What is more interesting is the country is divided regionally, Labour is not popular in South West, and bits of central southern England (and Lib Dem's are expected to win many of their projected 49 seats here). West Wales looks to be be 4 Plaid seats. Scotland is also unpredictable with Labour generally only getting seats in Central belt, never the Highlands. Labour also ignore Northern Ireland.

There seem to be quite a few dozen seats where 3 parties are showing 25% of the votes, so who ends up winning these could easily move around depending on one or two influencing events or gaffs that locally move votes by small percentages.

 

[nw1]

In Australia and New Zealand, elections are on a Saturday which means people don't need to have the day off to vote.

To be fair you don't need the day off to vote here, as you can vote until 10pm.

But a Saturday of course means that you can then get away with celebrating/commiserating (as appropriate) and not being in a fit state to work the following day...

 

[Typhoon]

It worked OK after 1997. A narrow majority and Starmer would have to govern with half an eye on the next election - a good majority and the probability of at least two terms will give him the space to be a bit bolder.

I would say that it worked well in the beginning. Blair had majorities of closer to 200 than 100; he stopped listening to most of his MPs, having a small group of confidants (some of which were not MPs). True a lot of good legislation was passed, especially early on, but they started to lose touch - not just with the hard left, but the moderate left as well and started cosying up to big business. The Conservatives made mistakes with leadership (Hague - right man, wrong time, Duncan-Smith - wrong man, full stop - I have seen him described recently as 'wet', if anything is a bad sign for the Conservatives, that is). Labour need a comfortable majority - 50 to 70. I don't disagree with the underlined part at all. I just want to make sure that Labour keep focused on the voters, no repeat of Blair seemingly wanting to be a world statesman (not that Starmer seems the sort). Nor do I want a repetition of the situation where my own MP at the time (Labour) seemed to be treated as more of an enemy than those on the opposition benches.

To be fair you don't need the day off to vote here, as you can vote until 10pm.

But a Saturday of course means that you can then get away with celebrating/commiserating (as appropriate) and not being in a fit state to work the following day...

I used to work a 12 hour day on a Thursday. With travel time (over an hour, by public transport - bus, train, walk). it was tight. The only time I haven't voted was when they were late setting up. Since then I've had a postal vote. There will be others, particularly commuters, who, having arrived home, say, between 8 and 9pm, and it is dark, the last thing they want to do is head for a polling station, particularly if it is not immediately local. Not a plea for weekend voting but more encouragement of a postal vote.

 

[Snow1964]

Not a plea for weekend voting but more encouragement of a postal vote.

As there are reports of some areas where post is only delivered once every 2-3 weeks due to 'staff shortages' then not sure we should do postal votes until post office sorts the problem

 

[Typhoon]

As there are reports of some areas where post is only delivered once every 2-3 weeks due to 'staff shortages' then not sure we should do postal votes until post office sorts the problem

Good point. As some voters cannot vote in person, that needs to be a priority for HMG.

 

[RT4038]

Good point. As some voters cannot vote in person, that needs to be a priority for HMG.

I'd rather NHS waiting lists were prioritised......

 

[takno]

I'd rather NHS waiting lists were prioritised......

I don't think it's an either/or tbh

 

[Typhoon]

I'd rather NHS waiting lists were prioritised......

I'm sure they can do both if they tried. My feeling is if lots of postal votes turn up after the election, we will have claims of 'rigged elections' (almost certainly unjustified). However, there will be tight races where one or two dozen votes might make a difference. We have seen what happens in the USA, now we don't have as many conspiracy theorists as they have but we do have some. We have gone down the route of voter ID because there is supposed to be fraud at the ballot box, this could potentially affect rather more electors.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'd rather NHS waiting lists were prioritised.....

If we're at the point that the Government can only focus on one thing at a time then we really are finished.

 

[birchesgreen]

This is amusing, there is nothing they won't sell.

Tories planned to make millions from members’ data with ‘True Blue’ app

Exclusive: senior party officials worked on commercial venture that would allow brands to sell products to supporters

www.theguardian.com

Senior Conservative party officials worked on plans to hand over its entire membership database for a commercial venture that promised to make tens of millions of pounds, the Guardian can reveal.

Leaked documents show Tory executives discussed exploiting members’ personal data to build a mobile phone app that could track users’ locations and allow big brands to advertise to Conservative supporters. The party would take a cut of sales.

The project was considered over several months last year, with the aim of launching the “True Blue” app in time for the party’s conference in October.

The idea was developed by the boss of a cryptocurrency firm with a string of failed businesses behind him. Yet senior Conservative officials appeared so captivated by the plan that they prepared to provide the party’s database of members in order to move the proposal forward.

 

[SteveM70]

We have gone down the route of voter ID because there is supposed to be fraud at the ballot box, this could potentially affect rather more electors

As has been widely said, more Tory MPs have faced allegations of sexual assault than voters have been convicted of election fraud. Voter ID is a form of gerrymandering

 

[Busaholic]

The YouGov poll suggests labour will get around 400 seats, and Conservatives 155

For comparison in 1997 Labour got 418, Conservatives 165 (of 659 seats, there are now 650 seats).

What is more interesting is the country is divided regionally, Labour is not popular in South West, and bits of central southern England (and Lib Dem's are expected to win many of their projected 49 seats here). West Wales looks to be be 4 Plaid seats. Scotland is also unpredictable with Labour generally only getting seats in Central belt, never the Highlands. Labour also ignore Northern Ireland.

There seem to be quite a few dozen seats where 3 parties are showing 25% of the votes, so who ends up winning these could easily move around depending on one or two influencing events or gaffs that locally move votes by small percentages.

The poll published in Easter Sunday's Sunday Times conducted by Survation was done on a more detailed seat-by-seat analysis, which not only had just 98 Tory seats retained but only 22 for the LibDems. From the coloured map produced of GB (Northern Ireland, as per usual, gets excluded from these things) I only spied one LibDem seat in Cornwall, as against all six in 2010, and I spotted no others in the wider SW, including those gained in by-elections during this Parliament. Not to say they're right of course, even at this stage. Greens and Reform shared no seats between them either.

Andrea Jenkyns and even Liz Truss to defect to Reform anybody? Both attended Farage's 60th spawnday yesterday!