Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[DynamicSpirit]

A collapse of the SNP and a resurgence of the LibDems are both strong possibilities for the next election, and between them could restore the historic situation of the LibDems being the third largest party. I agree it's unlikely the Conservatives would drop below either.

Agreed. I see no sign that the LibDems are likely to resurge in terms of votes: So far they seem to be flatlining on about the same % vote as they got in 2019. But I'm pretty sure a combination of anti-Tory tactical voting plus a general collapse in the Tory vote in places where the LibDems are the main challenger will see the LibDems pick up quite a few more seats. I also agree that it's highly unlikely that they'll overtake (or even come close to overtaking) the Tories.

 

[Thirteen]

The Lib Dems will likely grab the likes of Esher and Wimbledon and perhaps regain places they lost before like Carshalton.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

An interesting oddity struck me about the Tamworth results: The LibDem vote largely collapsed - from 5.3% to 1.6% - and you would assume that was because of tactical voting. But the Green vote didn't: It reduced just slightly from 2% to 1.6%, ending up exactly level with the LibDems. I'm curious why. Are Green supporters less likely to vote tactically than LibDems? (Seems unlikely because the Green vote was heavily down in Mid Bedfordshire which suggests Green supporters were voting tactically there).

 

[takno]

An interesting oddity struck me about the Tamworth results: The LibDem vote largely collapsed - from 5.3% to 1.6% - and you would assume that was because of tactical voting. But the Green vote didn't: It reduced just slightly from 2% to 1.6%, ending up exactly level with the LibDems. I'm curious why. Are Green supporters less likely to vote tactically than LibDems? (Seems unlikely because the Green vote was heavily down in Mid Bedfordshire which suggests Green supporters were voting tactically there).

I think there's a tiny core in all parties which will vote with their party regardless of whether they are throwing the vote away or not. I think in both cases you're just seeing that. Tbh I also didn't think it would be as close as it was. If other people felt the same then perhaps they felt that the seat was safe and they could safely express their actual preference.

 

[Typhoon]

An interesting oddity struck me about the Tamworth results: The LibDem vote largely collapsed - from 5.3% to 1.6% - and you would assume that was because of tactical voting. But the Green vote didn't: It reduced just slightly from 2% to 1.6%, ending up exactly level with the LibDems. I'm curious why. Are Green supporters less likely to vote tactically than LibDems? (Seems unlikely because the Green vote was heavily down in Mid Bedfordshire which suggests Green supporters were voting tactically there).

The Labour candidate in Mid Beds has 'Green' credentials,

TORIES last night hit out at the election of eco-zombie Alistair Strathern.

The Labour candidate, 33, won the Mid Bedfordshire seat on Thursday.

Last year he posed as a zombie for an eco stunt outside the Home Office.

Images show him as a ghoul with face paint including blood dripping from his mouth.

The protest was against new laws that curb extreme protests by environmental activist groups.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/24475...bie-alistair-strathern-mid-bedfordshire-seat/
(Less sensationalist reports are available)

Some of those with Green sympathies probably reckoned that electing someone who actually stood up for environmental causes rather than just chunter about them might be worth electing (even if it meant a lost deposit).

 

[takno]

The Labour candidate in Mid Beds has 'Green' credentials,


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/24475...bie-alistair-strathern-mid-bedfordshire-seat/
(Less sensationalist reports are available)

Some of those with Green sympathies probably reckoned that electing someone who actually stood up for environmental causes rather than just chunter about them might be worth electing (even if it meant a lost deposit).

Makes him sound like a well-rounded human being who isn't obsessed with appearing as a grey man. I'm more inclined to vote for a party with him in it. I'm not sure from the tone that the Sun are trying to use it as a smear - sometimes they just float stuff like that in a vaguely sensationalist way and see how it plays out.

 

[nw1]

Makes him sound like a well-rounded human being who isn't obsessed with appearing as a grey man. I'm more inclined to vote for a party with him in it. I'm not sure from the tone that the Sun are trying to use it as a smear - sometimes they just float stuff like that in a vaguely sensationalist way and see how it plays out.

Eco-zombie is certainly a definite insult, of the sort that it's seemingly OK for the right to make but woe betide the left if they try anything similar. But as you say not unexpected from the "Sun".

The Lib Dems will likely grab the likes of Esher and Wimbledon and perhaps regain places they lost before like Carshalton.

Probably a number of other places too, I'd say Winchester is a certainty, partly due to the small majority and partly because incumbent Steve Brine is standing down, so no "incumbent advantage" factor at play.

Guildford must also surely be a gain, and it wouldn't surprise me if Lib Dem success in Somerton and Frome spreads to some of the surrounding seats. Perhaps if they have a good night, they may even gain other seats which have been Tory since the start of time, but trend socially-liberal, such as Woking.

Incidentally following the Mid-Beds result, is it now possible to travel by train from St Pancras (or even East Croydon, via Thameslink) to Bedford without hitting a single Tory seat? We have Greater London, then St Albans, then the Luton seats, then Mid Beds and finally Bedford, though I may have missed some out.

 

[takno]

Eco-zombie is certainly a definite insult, of the sort that it's seemingly OK for the right to make but woe betide the left if they try anything similar. But as you say not unexpected from the "Sun".

Eco-zombie is entirely reasonable light ribbing given that he was dressed as a zombie at something that could reasonably be characterized as an eco march. Sure, a certain type of Conservative will be driven to eye-rolling apoplexy by the thought, although probably none of those people were in any danger of voting Labour anyway.

Definitely there are also people on the incredibly thin-skinned wing of the Tory party would be furiously writing complaints to the editor if they were described in equivalent terms. We shouldn't descend to their level or normalize their intensely irritating behaviour though. Why can't the rest of us just be allowed to enjoy a joke against either side?

 

[nw1]

Eco-zombie is entirely reasonable light ribbing given that he was dressed as a zombie at something that could reasonably be characterized as an eco march. Sure, a certain type of Conservative will be driven to eye-rolling apoplexy by the thought, although probably none of those people were in any danger of voting Labour anyway.

Definitely there are also people on the incredibly thin-skinned wing of the Tory party would be furiously writing complaints to the editor if they were described in equivalent terms. We shouldn't descend to their level or normalize their intensely irritating behaviour though. Why can't the rest of us just be allowed to enjoy a joke against either side?

Yes, fair enough. "Eco-zombie" could be interpreted, however, as someone who mindlessly follows green policies irrespective of whether they are practicable or not - which is probably not true for the new Mid Beds MP.

 

[najaB]

Yes, fair enough. "Eco-zombie" could be interpreted, however, as someone who mindlessly follows green policies irrespective of whether they are practicable or not - which is probably not true for the new Mid Beds MP.

Indeed. If anything it was intended to have both meanings - there will be people who don't know about the zombie costume and who will assume the meaning you suggest. Which works quite well really.

 

[gnolife]

Hate to be "that guy" but we don't vote for a Prime Minister. The party leader does, naturally, do a lot to shape people's opinions, but I don't think there are many who would think "This person has been/will be a terrible MP, does nothing to promote anything I'm interested in, but their rosette is the right colour so..."

I disagree with this statement - I think that by and large, people couldn't care less about their local MP, and instead vote entirely based on the party they represent.

 

[gg1]

I disagree with this statement - I think that by and large, people couldn't care less about their local MP, and instead vote entirely based on the party they represent.

Completely agree. For 99% of people, the amount of impact even the very best constituency MP has on their life is insignificant when compared to the policies of the party of government.

 

[nw1]

I disagree with this statement - I think that by and large, people couldn't care less about their local MP, and instead vote entirely based on the party they represent.

The 2019 election clearly showed this, out went Dominic Grieve (now independent) and in went a rent-a-Tory, for example - presumably because the people of that constituency wanted a Johnson government, and Grieve would probably not have supported Johnson, so even if he was a good MP, he had to go.

 

[najaB]

I disagree with this statement - I think that by and large, people couldn't care less about their local MP, and instead vote entirely based on the party they represent.

So you think that people will vote for an MP who they know is useless, simply because of the party? That's not been my experience. In those cases they tend to stay at home.

I agree that people will vote based on party without looking into the MP/candidate's history.

 

[Gloster]

It used to be said that being a good and conscientious MP (such a strange concept used to be quite common and might even still exist in a few isolated pockets) was worth no more than about 1,500 votes. With the increase in constituency sizes this would probably now be getting on for double that. However, nowadays we have another type of MP, the celebrity one who may well be a lousy representative for their constituents as they are too busy being a celebrity, but gain votes due to name recognition.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The Conservatives can not recover from this. They will lose the next General Election end of….

 

[Gloster]

Never under estimate the Labour Party’s ability for infighting when they are well placed or to find a problem for every solution. I do fear the possibility that voters will be put off and abstain (rather than switch) if Labour manages to destroy its slowly improving reputation for competence.

 

[Wynd]

Listened to Any Questions there, the MP for Aberdeenshire West, Andrew Bowie took a kicking.

By now, if you were a conservative, youd be hoping to be in a good position for the upcoming election, but that could not be any further away.

Its going from bad to worse for the Tory's. They have had 13 years, and made a hash of it. Its not credible to ask people to give them some more time to get things in order.

Its over, its now just a matter of time.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Makes him sound like a well-rounded human being who isn't obsessed with appearing as a grey man. I'm more inclined to vote for a party with him in it. I'm not sure from the tone that the Sun are trying to use it as a smear - sometimes they just float stuff like that in a vaguely sensationalist way and see how it plays out.

As far as I can make out, it seems to have been not a process against environmental destruction per se, but a protest against the Public Order Act - albeit a protest that it seems Greenpeace was involved with organising. Since that act was designed to prevent the kind of disruptive protests that even many environmentalists object to/regard as counter-productive, that doesn't impress me as much as if he had protesting in favour of actual environmental causes. Having said that, I agree with you to the extent that there's absolutely nothing wrong with protesting in the way he had been doing.

Eco-zombie is certainly a definite insult, of the sort that it's seemingly OK for the right to make but woe betide the left if they try anything similar. But as you say not unexpected from the "Sun".

Unusually, I partly agree with you to the extent that I think the Sun was using it as an insult, and that's not the kind of language that should be being used in a newspaper article (other possibly than if it's something that's obviously intended as a joke). But I'd disagree with you that the left can't do anything similar. The left can and does do the same thing. For example, just yesterday The Mirror published this about Rishi Sunak:

A middle class boy from Southampton who married well and was educated abroad, he's an over-rich, globally-minded twit who thought he could at least stop the party from utter collapse at the ballot box, and skip off to California with a peerage and the chance of steering future policy from afar.

As far as I'm aware, just like with the Sun article, there was no controversy: No-one really complained. There was certainly no 'woe betide the left' for writing that. I'm not trying to get into a 'this insult is worse than that one' kind of debate: I'm just pointing out that it happens on both sides (Of course, it's always much easier to notice and take offence when it's the other side doing it than when it's your own side doing it ).

 

[edwin_m]

Incidentally following the Mid-Beds result, is it now possible to travel by train from St Pancras (or even East Croydon, via Thameslink) to Bedford without hitting a single Tory seat? We have Greater London, then St Albans, then the Luton seats, then Mid Beds and finally Bedford, though I may have missed some out.

Hitchin and Harpenden is still Tory.

 

[Busaholic]

Meanwhile at least one Tory evidently doesn't have a clue (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67126173?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=65327154fd63b979e1ace48d&More Tory calls for government to 'lean into' Conservative voters' values&2023-10-20T13:10:02.095Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:b857b2df-259a-4cc4-9754-f5b70253f5e3&pinned_post_asset_id=65327154fd63b979e1ace48d&pinned_post_type=share):



The name of this MP sounds familiar, and not in a good way.

Are most people's concerns "migration, sex education in schools, gender issues, and taxation"? He sounds just like a Tea Party Republican in the USA.

I suspect more people are more concerned about the cost of living, problems with public services, and the woeful state of the NHS.

The Tories will never win if they listen to people like Kruger. Yet another Tory obsessed with culture wars, it seems. A poor replacement for the, IIRC quite reasonable Claire Perry.

Danny Kruger, son of Prue Leith, who took part in a radio debate with her on the 'assisted death' topic a while age, he on the anti side and she on the pro side. In many ways he seems to replicate the thinking of DUP MPs on social matters and, as you say, the Sarah Palin crazies. He seems to crave publicity, so perhaps that he receives when he loses his seat of Devizes at the next election might cause a rethink.

 

[Typhoon]

Danny Kruger, son of Prue Leith, who took part in a radio debate with her on the 'assisted death' topic a while age, he on the anti side and she on the pro side. In many ways he seems to replicate the thinking of DUP MPs on social matters and, as you say, the Sarah Palin crazies. He seems to crave publicity, so perhaps that he receives when he loses his seat of Devizes at the next election might cause a rethink.

Crave publicity - not always.

 

[The Ham]

Easy.

Many are not interested in politics. They have a decent job, kids are at an alright state school, everything is under control. Why risk changing anything?

The problem is that even 5 years ago it was starting to become obvious that things were starting to harm people who are in areas which are traditionally well off.

Whist people are likely to have adapted, things like the reduction in access to library services isn't likely to go down well. Schools are struggling and are more and more asking for money for things that they used not to bother with (for example a secondary school asking for £2 to cover minor ingredients, so pinches of salt, flour for dusting worktop for rolling our pastry, small amounts of herbs & spices, etc.)

Whilst not a significant issue for many, it's the sort of thing which puts people's backs up and highlights to people just how tight school budgets are (even if they miss the news stories about the government getting their sums wrong on the increase of school budgets).

The last general election masked a load of issues as people were voting for getting Brexit done, there's no such flag that the Tories can use this time around (their trying with small boats, however that probably puts off as many as it attracts and is in the "political" camp so often doesn't impact people all that much).

Conversely, seeing no increase in their personal allowance means that they feel poorer, as for those getting a small pay rise (say 20p an hour more) the extra from getting an extra £800 of tax free allowance makes them feel quite a bit more better off (less of an impact for those on better rates of pay, but certainly more of a benefit to more people than changing stamp duty and inheritance tax).

 

[Busaholic]

Crave publicity - not always.

I hadn't seen that before, but it's instructive to follow it to the end, and the nonchalant way he just puts the dog on the lead after his own attempts to stay in the background. If that police car hadn't been there, he'd probably have sauntered off. An arrogant scumbag, no doubt 'exercising his inalienable rights.'

 

[brad465]

This would be interesting if true, and could cause problems for the Tories if they go into an election not knowing who their chancellor will be if they win (unless Hunt resigns/is sacked before then):

Jeremy Hunt ‘set to quit as MP’ in fear of a Portillo moment

The chancellor will stand down before the election as likelihood of defeat in new Surrey seat looms, senior Tories say

www.theguardian.com

Jeremy Hunt is expected to stand down as an MP before the next election, according to senior Conservatives, who say the chancellor is aware he could suffer a “Michael Portillo” moment on polling day.

Hunt has already put himself forward and been selected for the new Surrey constituency of Godalming and Ash, after his South West Surrey seat was dissolved and split into two under boundary changes.

His spokesman said on Friday that his position remained that he would stand. But with his party in increasingly dire straits as byelection defeats mount up, and Labour’s poll lead solidifying, several senior sources nationally and locally have told the Observer that they expect him to announce he is stepping down much nearer to the election.

Rumours have been swirling among Surrey Conservatives and at Westminster to this effect, amid cataclysmic predictions of wipeout for several serving cabinet ministers after more than 13 years in power.

One former minister said that with a Labour government in prospect, the options for Hunt of fighting the new seat were not attractive, whether he won or lost: “Barring a miracle [of the Tories winning and forming another government], I can’t see Jeremy wanting to be in opposition under a new leader. And if he loses he will be the biggest scalp on election night. That is not a departure anyone would want. People in Surrey are saying he will not stand.”

 

[nw1]

This would be interesting if true, and could cause problems for the Tories if they go into an election not knowing who their chancellor will be if they win (unless Hunt resigns/is sacked before then):

Jeremy Hunt ‘set to quit as MP’ in fear of a Portillo moment

The chancellor will stand down before the election as likelihood of defeat in new Surrey seat looms, senior Tories say

www.theguardian.com

Now I wouldn't have predicted Hunt would lose his seat (or, not win the replacement one).

But to be fair the piece above does also suggest he might not want to be in opposition, so the rumours could just be down to that rather than actually believing he might lose.

 

[SynthD]

When do these MPs wishing to quietly fade out have to declare their intentions? Does the parliamentary party tell local constituency parties ahead of time so they can select new candidates before Sunak announces the general election?

 

[Typhoon]

I hadn't seen that before, but it's instructive to follow it to the end, and the nonchalant way he just puts the dog on the lead after his own attempts to stay in the background. If that police car hadn't been there, he'd probably have sauntered off. An arrogant scumbag, no doubt 'exercising his inalienable rights.'

I like the woman who shouts at him" I personally think it is worse than 'Fenton', at least the owner chases the dog.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

When do these MPs wishing to quietly fade out have to declare their intentions? Does the parliamentary party tell local constituency parties ahead of time so they can select new candidates before Sunak announces the general election?

I don't believe there's any requirement to declare their intentions in advance if they don't want to stand. Once the general election has been actually called and Parliament dissolved, all the candidates from all parties will be rushing round to get constituents to nominate them in accordance with the law, and then deposit their nomination papers with the returning officer. Once those nomination papers have been accepted by the returning officer, then they are the official candidate. But any time up to that point there's absolutely nothing stopping them from saying, 'Sorry, I've changed my mind'. They'd inconvenience and probably severely annoy their own party if they left it that late since their party will be scrabbling round to find another candidate at short notice, but if they don't want to be an MP anymore, they might not care about that

(This is in contrast with if they do want to stand - in which case they need to let their party know long - maybe, years - in advance, otherwise their party will simply select someone else).

 

[Gloster]

I don't believe there's any requirement to declare their intentions in advance if they don't want to stand. Once the general election has been actually called and Parliament dissolved, all the candidates from all parties will be rushing round to get constituents to nominate them in accordance with the law, and then deposit their nomination papers with the returning officer. Once those nomination papers have been accepted by the returning officer, then they are the official candidate. But any time up to that point there's absolutely nothing stopping them from saying, 'Sorry, I've changed my mind'. They'd inconvenience and probably severely annoy their own party if they left it that late since their party will be scrabbling round to find another candidate at short notice, but if they don't want to be an MP anymore, they might not care about that

(This is in contrast with if they do want to stand - in which case they need to let their party know long - maybe, years - in advance, otherwise their party will simply select someone else).

I think that the Conservative Party has a rule that if a sitting MP is not going to stand at the next election they should advise the constituency association or party hierarchy by a certain date; possibly xy months before the last date the election can take place. I am not sure if it was at the beginning of this year as there were a number of comments when William Wragg announced that he wasn’t going to stand. There must be a fair amount of leeway, but I presume that they want to avoid suddenly finding they have to run a long series of selections just as ‘election fever’ is hotting up.