Support for Tories in Ipsos polling hits lowest level for more than 40 years, with Labour 27 points ahead
Support for the Conservative party is at its lowest level for more than 40 years, according to polling from
Ipsos.
According to its latest monthly political monitor, Labour is on 47% (down 2 points on the previous month), and the
Conservatives are on 20% (down seven points).
Ipsos says this is the lowest score that Tories have had since it started this regular poll tracker in 1978.
Here is more on the figures from the Ipsos news release.
Labour 47% (-2 pts), Conservatives 20% (-7), Liberal Democrats 9% (+2), Green 8% (+1), Reform UK 8% (+4), Other 7% (+2). Making Labour’s lead 27 points, up from 22 in January.
The Conservatives’ share of 20% is the lowest ever recorded by Ipsos in our regular political monitor series, which has run since 1978. Previous Conservative low points were 22% under John Major in December 1994 and May 1995, 23% in July 1997, shortly after Labour’s landslide win and 23 per cent in December 2022.
Half (50%) of those with a voting intention say they have definitely decided who to vote for – but 45% may change their mind. There are also signs of a growing enthusiasm gap, with only 62% of Conservatives saying they certain to vote, vs 76% of Labour voters (which feeds through into the headline voting figure) – last month the gap was just 4 points.
It is often said that any poll finding that is particularly newsworthy, because it is striking and unusual, is likely to be wrong. All polls are subject to a margin of error and they are most reliable when considered alongside other polls, as a guide to trends in opinion, rather than in isolation. The Guardian’s
opinion poll tracker does not show Tory support collapsing further in January or February.
But the Ipsos polling also suggests
Labour is comfortably ahead of the Conservatives on economic policy and on leadership, the two areas seen as crucial for electoral success.
On policy, Ipsos says:
Labour are seen as having the best policies on managing the economy by a margin of 31% to the Conservative score of 23%. In October the parties were neck and neck.
On taxation, Labour are seen as having the best policies over the Conservatives by a margin of 32% to 19%.
40% think Labour have the best policies for people in work, 15% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
43% think Labour have the best policies for public services in general, 11% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
35% think Labour have the best policies for the level of public spending, 16% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
29% think the Conservatives have the best policies for Britain’s businesses, 25% think Labour have the best policies. In September 2021 the Conservatives lead on this by 41% to 17%.
30% think the Conservatives have the best policies for Britain’s financial services sector, also known as the City, 22% think Labour have the best policies.
And on leadership Ipsos says:
19% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as prime minister (-1 from January) and 73% say they are dissatisfied (+7). His net rating of -54 is a record low for Mr Sunak.
Keir Starmer’s ratings have also fallen since January. 29% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader (-1) and 55% are dissatisfied (+7). His net score of -26 is only slightly above his lowest finding of -29 in May 2021.
Ipsos polled just over 1,000 people between 21 and 28 February.
Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, said:
The historical comparisons continue to look ominous for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives. The Ipsos political monitor series started in the late 70s and has never recorded a Conservative vote share this low – and the job satisfaction trends for the prime minister and his government since he took office are also heading downwards.
Combined with Labour taking leads on issues of economic credibility to go with their traditional strengths in public services, this means the Conservatives face big challenges across a number of fronts if they are to turn the situation around.