Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[AM9]

Of course that won't be what the actual seat numbers look like after an election. But it certainly is funny

To be honest, such a landslide, as you say would be a just desert for the Conservatives on the day, but also a disaster for any party, - especially the Labour party where all sorts of left-wing factions would misbehave.

 

[DarloRich]

Of course that won't be what the actual seat numbers look like after an election. But it certainly is funny

the changes that could be made to make this country immeasurably better if that were true!

( it wont be anywhere near that sort of result but one can dream!)

 

[birchesgreen]

Labour didn't have that great a week either really, it probably doesn't really matter now anyway.

 

[Busaholic]

To be honest, such a landslide, as you say would be a just desert for the Conservatives on the day, but also a disaster for any party, - especially the Labour party where all sorts of left-wing factions would misbehave.

It would be a desert of Sahara proportions for the Tories, and richly deserved. Those figures, though of course nowhere near what is likely to occur, wouldn't be a true reflection of the voting intentions of the population as a whole and never will be until Proportional Representation in one form or another is introduced. I don't believe good and trusted government comes with one party of whatever hue having a huge majority. For instance, much as I dislike them, if Reform's 14% of the vote brought them no representation in Parliament it would be a disgrace and only lead to civil disobedience or worse, not necessarily just from their supporters.

 

[SteveM70]

As many have said, that sort of result is exceptionally unlikely, but if it did happen the practicalities are hilarious:

- Lib Dems as the official opposition

- insufficient MPs for there to be a shadow for every minister

- the commons looking like a one-sided wedding, with Labour MPs probably on both sides of the house

 

[birchesgreen]

For instance, much as I dislike them, if Reform's 14% of the vote brought them no representation in Parliament it would be a disgrace and only lead to civil disobedience or worse, not necessarily just from their supporters.

I really doubt it'll lead to any civil disobedience.

 

[dosxuk]

I really doubt it'll lead to any civil disobedience.

It won't on any noticeable scale, but I suspect we'll soon see just how large the "silent majority" actually are.

For instance, much as I dislike them, if Reform's 14% of the vote brought them no representation in Parliament it would be a disgrace

Reform have the same problem as UKIP before them - enough support to count on the polls, but nowhere near enough to actually get to a majority in an individual seat. While it's easy to compare their figures to the Lib Dem's and their numbers of MP's, the Lib Dem's are in the opposite position - high levels of support in a small number of areas, but virtually nothing in the rest of the country - makes their overall support look smaller, but they do repeatedly manage to get enough support in the seats they focus on.

 

[brad465]

The Tories losing that many seats won't necessarily be their death knell, however the Lib Dems being the official opposition would be were it to happen. As the official opposition they get a much larger platform than currently and could promote themselves better (including 6 questions in PMQs vs just 2 for the Tories if they were 3rd).

What I find most amusing though, as someone who does PR campaigning, is that I can see a lot more Tory supporters getting onboard with the concept of a PR system if they're reduced to just a few dozen seats, where under PR the same vote share would give them over 100 while Labour would still be short of a majority.

 

[edwin_m]

Reform have the same problem as UKIP before them - enough support to count on the polls, but nowhere near enough to actually get to a majority in an individual seat. While it's easy to compare their figures to the Lib Dem's and their numbers of MP's, the Lib Dem's are in the opposite position - high levels of support in a small number of areas, but virtually nothing in the rest of the country - makes their overall support look smaller, but they do repeatedly manage to get enough support in the seats they focus on.

I'd say Reform and LibDems are in the same sort of position but Reform much more so. If this "prediction" came true the LibDems would still be underperforming their vote share, which they generally do by much more - their support is widely distributed but they are able to put in a big effort on a small number of winnable seats and actually win some of them. Reform could probably do the same but either haven't been well enough organised or haven't been around long enough to understand where to focus. The SNP (at least in the last few elections, probably not now!) was the opposite, with support concentrated in Scotland so they won most of the seats there with a national vote share less than that of the LibDems.

 

[Typhoon]

The Redfield-Wilton poll also gives 12% who don't know. The most recent YouGov Poll (12-13 March) gives 18% 'Don't know' and 12% would not vote, which, together, gives as many as Labour (also 3% refused to answer).

It is this uncertainty, more uncertain than 1992 (only two real runners). I don't expect that it may result in civil disobedience, but I can see there being surprise as a result.

Reform will rely heavily on Tice-Farage-Anderson. I've looked at local constituencies, many candidates have not been chosen yet Although neither have they all for established parties, they have the local infrastructure. Even where they have been, they don't seem to singing from the same hymn sheet - one is campaigning against using agricultural land for farming, I go to another and it is all about immigration, another is making the area, the county and the country Great Again. Others just give a CV. I am not seeing a core message.

I'd say Reform and LibDems are in the same sort of position but Reform much more so. If this "prediction" came true the LibDems would still be underperforming their vote share, which they generally do by much more - their support is widely distributed but they are able to put in a big effort on a small number of winnable seats and actually win some of them. Reform could probably do the same but either haven't been well enough organised or haven't been around long enough to understand where to focus. The SNP (at least in the last few elections, probably not now!) was the opposite, with support concentrated in Scotland so they won most of the seats there with a national vote share less than that of the LibDems.

The LibDems did well in 2010 because they had some quite well known figures (in their locality at least) - including Norman Baker, Alan Beith, Malcolm Bruce, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, Simon Hughes, Chris Huhne, Charles Kennedy, Jo Swinson, Sarah Teather, Steve Webb. Now they are, as you say, working on a small number of constituencies but they have laid the groundwork, maybe they have active councillors or the prospective MP has been working the constituency for some time. Reform probably has neither. If they have councillors, they will probably be former Conservatives, not a strong selling point.

 

[uglymonkey]

A lot of middle class folks will never vote Lib Dem again, due to the tuition fee shafting.

 

[Typhoon]

A lot of middle class folks will never vote Lib Dem again, due to the tuition fee shafting.

True. Clegg has a lot to answer for. Cameron stitched him up good and proper.

 

[Silenos]

Cameron stitched him up good and proper.

Just as he did the rest of us.

A lot of middle class folks will never vote Lib Dem again, due to the tuition fee shafting.

I think at least some are prepared to hold their noses and vote tactically for a LibDem this time around

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

True. Clegg has a lot to answer for. Cameron stitched him up good and proper.

Liberal voters got some of the keys to power in 2010 and were able to influence a lot of policy for good but in any coalition there has to be give and take and LD voters just threw it all away over this policy shift and as a result things have ended up a lot worse for the majority of the population. LD voters need to move on if they ever want to influence change otherwise they are just ceding control to a dominant Labour win in next GE and Labour won't need to consider PR.

 

[nw1]

A lot of middle class folks will never vote Lib Dem again, due to the tuition fee shafting.

Not sure about that. I'd argue that the wrongdoings of the Tories since 2019 have eclipsed that, and such voters are now more likely to vote Lib Dem than Tory. Isn't St Albans a "middle class" place? That's notable for a recent gain, and joint winner (with Putney) of the Resisting Boris Award, 2019.

On the topic of Lib Dems: any predictions for likely seats they will gain?

My guesses would include: Winchester close to 100% sure (especially as Tory incumbent Steve Brine is standing down anyway), Guildford, Esher and Walton and perhaps an outside chance of Hunt's prospective Godalming and Ash seat on a good night, based on a discussion on this forum a few days ago. Perhaps also Woking and some other Surrey seats, and places like Cheadle Hulme and Hazel Grove in Greater Manchester which are demographically similar and which they also had in 2010. Also Solihull, which looks rather Surrey-ish from the train and again has a Tory incumbent standing down.

Not sure about the southwest. Bath will be a hold, for sure. Aside from that, I guess they might hold the seats they already have down there from byelections if the local MPs are doing a good job. Not sure if they'll actually gain any in the region, though.

The southwest is a difficult one to predict as it's a little hard to grasp what the mood of the region is. They went all in for Lib Dem in 2010 and to a lesser extent before, then switched to voting Tory and - oddly given the region was a recipient of EU money - Brexit. I can't make head or tail of that combination if I'm honest, unless the demographics of the southwest have shifted recently.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

A lot of middle class folks will never vote Lib Dem again, due to the tuition fee shafting.

I think that was true 10 years ago, but memories fade and as @nw1 says, a lot of other issues have now eclipsed that. My guess is you'll find that there are a good few people who in 2015 were of a 'never vote LibDem again' mindset but who today would be perfectly willing to vote LibDem if it meant getting rid of their Tory MP.

The southwest is a difficult one to predict as it's a little hard to grasp what the mood of the region is. They went all in for Lib Dem in 2010 and to a lesser extent before, then switched to voting Tory and - oddly given the region was a recipient of EU money - Brexit. I can't make head or tail of that combination if I'm honest, unless the demographics of the southwest have shifted recently.

I think that pre-2010 the SouthWest was fertile territory for the LibDems in part because the LibDems' strong tradition of localism and free-thinking went well with the sense of distinctiveness from London that many in the SW felt, plus the LibDems had worked their community politics well there. Actually there was a long history from before that: Go look at almost any general election map from the late 19th century, and you'll see the West Country at the time was consistently a strong Liberal area; My guess is that's due to Methodism and non-conformism generally being stronger in the part of the country, at a time when religious denomination and politics were much more intertwined.

But the key point there is support for Liberalism in the 2000's arose from historical/cultural reasons and didn't necessarily indicate much support for LibDem policies. That was fine as long as the LibDems didn't rock the boat by going strongly against the wishes of their West Country voters on an issue that mattered much to those voters. And then of course Brexit came along. That same tradition of localism/independence/dislike of faraway authorities that previously helped the LibDems was probably a big factor behind why the West Country was strongly pro-Brexit (Having a fishing industry there would have added to that too), but the LibDems, having already made themselves unpopular over tuition fees etc., almost overnight made themselves toxic to many of their previous West Country voters by coming out so strongly pro-EU. The interesting question now is whether they can recover there, now that Brexit isn't such a big issue in most voters' minds. Tiverton and Honiton, and Somerton and Frome both suggest they can, at least in by-elections.

 

[brad465]

True. Clegg has a lot to answer for. Cameron stitched him up good and proper.

Although on the post-politics' gravy train Clegg managed to get the 1st class ticket, so to speak.

The southwest is a difficult one to predict as it's a little hard to grasp what the mood of the region is. They went all in for Lib Dem in 2010 and to a lesser extent before, then switched to voting Tory and - oddly given the region was a recipient of EU money - Brexit. I can't make head or tail of that combination if I'm honest, unless the demographics of the southwest have shifted recently.

I can see my seat of Taunton and Wellington (as it will become) going Lib Dem: the current Taunton Deane seat had a strong 2nd place showing for the Lib Dems in 2019, and if anti-Tory sentiment is high, getting rid of Rebecca Pow, a junior minister, is all the more satisfying, while the prospect of Wellington station reopening doesn't seem to be helping her much.

 

[skyhigh]

Now they are, as you say, working on a small number of constituencies but they have laid the groundwork, maybe they have active councillors or the prospective MP has been working the constituency for some time.

As I've said before, the Lib Dem candidate for my seat has been all over the place for about the last 12 months. I get pretty much fortnightly leaflets through. In contrast, haven't heard a peep from the incumbent Tory MP - it's like he's given up.

In the last election, the Conservatives won with a 10,000/13% majority. Electoral Calculus is now predicting the Lib Dems to win with a similar majority. To be honest, it'll be a fully deserved loss by the Conservatives.

 

[Thirteen]

Wimbledon is another Tory seat that the Lib Dems will likely gain,

 

[Busaholic]

I really doubt it'll lead to any civil disobedience.

It'll be the catalyst for those even more to the Right than most Reform members or their voters. Our Intelligence agencies are quite clear that Far Right terrorism and violence are much faster growing both in the UK and the rest of Europe than any other. Should the deranged megalomaniac Trump win the US election we can expect the fallout from that to spur them on even more, and there'll be elements of the Far Left quite happy to take advantage too,

I consider myself an optimist, but not a rose-tinted one, and I'll be pleasantly surprised if we don't see at least two attempts on lives of MPs this year.

 

[Bayum]

The Redfield-Wilton poll also gives 12% who don't know. The most recent YouGov Poll (12-13 March) gives 18% 'Don't know' and 12% would not vote, which, together, gives as many as Labour (also 3% refused to answer).

It is this uncertainty, more uncertain than 1992 (only two real runners). I don't expect that it may result in civil disobedience, but I can see there being surprise as a result.

Reform will rely heavily on Tice-Farage-Anderson. I've looked at local constituencies, many candidates have not been chosen yet Although neither have they all for established parties, they have the local infrastructure. Even where they have been, they don't seem to singing from the same hymn sheet - one is campaigning against using agricultural land for farming, I go to another and it is all about immigration, another is making the area, the county and the country Great Again. Others just give a CV. I am not seeing a core message.

The LibDems did well in 2010 because they had some quite well known figures (in their locality at least) - including Norman Baker, Alan Beith, Malcolm Bruce, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, Simon Hughes, Chris Huhne, Charles Kennedy, Jo Swinson, Sarah Teather, Steve Webb. Now they are, as you say, working on a small number of constituencies but they have laid the groundwork, maybe they have active councillors or the prospective MP has been working the constituency for some time. Reform probably has neither. If they have councillors, they will probably be former Conservatives, not a strong selling point.

Don’t forget the massive student vote based on their pre-election propaganda…

 

[sor]

nd then of course Brexit came along. That same tradition of localism/independence/dislike of faraway authorities that previously helped the LibDems was probably a big factor behind why the West Country was strongly pro-Brexit (Having a fishing industry there would have added to that too), but the LibDems, having already made themselves unpopular over tuition fees etc., almost overnight made themselves toxic to many of their previous West Country voters by coming out so strongly pro-EU.

Brexit doesn't explain why Cornwall went from the Lib Dems taking all six constituencies in 2005 to 3 in 2010 and 0 in 2015. 2017 had some classic examples of FPTP vote splitting - eg in St Austell where LabLib was neck and neck with Tory. Even the council didn't fall into Tory hands until 2021, and it seems a safe bet that there will be a resurgence next year as the local Tories have not made the best impression (as well as being blamed for the Tories at Westminster, of course).

Given that, as with much of England, it was slightly over 50% in favour of leaving the EU then trying to credit/blame Brexit for these swings is a little simplistic

 

[Busaholic]

Brexit doesn't explain why Cornwall went from the Lib Dems taking all six constituencies in 2005 to 3 in 2010 and 0 in 2015. 2017 had some classic examples of FPTP vote splitting - eg in St Austell where LabLib was neck and neck with Tory. Even the council didn't fall into Tory hands until 2021, and it seems a safe bet that there will be a resurgence next year as the local Tories have not made the best impression (as well as being blamed for the Tories at Westminster, of course).

Given that, as with much of England, it was slightly over 50% in favour of leaving the EU then trying to credit/blame Brexit for these swings is a little simplistic

The elimination of Lib Dem MPs from Cornwall in 2015 was very much because of that party's role in the austerity cuts brought about by the coalition government that the party foolishly agreed to join. Clegg's change of tack on tuition fees probably only played a small part.

 

[Thebaz]

Not sure about that. I'd argue that the wrongdoings of the Tories since 2019 have eclipsed that, and such voters are now more likely to vote Lib Dem than Tory. Isn't St Albans a "middle class" place? That's notable for a recent gain, and joint winner (with Putney) of the Resisting Boris Award, 2019.

On the topic of Lib Dems: any predictions for likely seats they will gain?

My guesses would include: Winchester close to 100% sure (especially as Tory incumbent Steve Brine is standing down anyway), Guildford, Esher and Walton and perhaps an outside chance of Hunt's prospective Godalming and Ash seat on a good night, based on a discussion on this forum a few days ago. Perhaps also Woking and some other Surrey seats, and places like Cheadle Hulme and Hazel Grove in Greater Manchester which are demographically similar and which they also had in 2010. Also Solihull, which looks rather Surrey-ish from the train and again has a Tory incumbent standing down.

Not sure about the southwest. Bath will be a hold, for sure. Aside from that, I guess they might hold the seats they already have down there from byelections if the local MPs are doing a good job. Not sure if they'll actually gain any in the region, though.

The southwest is a difficult one to predict as it's a little hard to grasp what the mood of the region is. They went all in for Lib Dem in 2010 and to a lesser extent before, then switched to voting Tory and - oddly given the region was a recipient of EU money - Brexit. I can't make head or tail of that combination if I'm honest, unless the demographics of the southwest have shifted recently.

I predict they will also regain Sutton & Cheam and Carshalton & Wallington. If Tom Brake stood again he'd walk it.

 

[Thirteen]

I think some of the safe London seats are under threat. Kensington could go red and even Westminster and City of London.

 

[jfollows]

I think some of the safe London seats are under threat. Kensington could go red and even Westminster and City of London.

Kensington’s not safe, it was Labour in 2017 and the 2019 result projected onto the new Kensington & Bayswater seat gives a Conservative majority of 1% over Labour (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Kensington+and+Bayswater), it’s going to go Labour in the next election.

 

[brad465]

Kensington’s not safe, it was Labour in 2017 and the 2019 result projected onto the new Kensington & Baywater seat gives a Conservative majority of 1% over Labour (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Kensington+and+Bayswater), it’s going to go Labour in the next election.

One slight issue to bear in mind is the Labour MP from 2017-19 was not selected as their candidate for the next election, such they've decided to run as an Independent who may split the vote. However given the national picture it's still a tall order for it not to go Labour.

 

[Falcon1200]

When Rishi Sunak became PM I was hopeful that, after the chaos of Boris Johnson and the madness of Liz Truss, there would be a steady and sensible hand on the tiller. I have sadly been extremely disappointed, by, among plenty of other things, his failure to settle the disputes in the health and rail industries, and his insistence on the absurd and unworkable Rwanda scheme.

And yet..... Here in Scotland our First Minister, rather than focus on his own party's achievements (I use that word loosely) has decided to focus his efforts on making the country a Tory-free zone; As I have, in the past, voted Tory, presumably he classes me among the Tories he wants to 'kick out of Scotland'.. So he may well actually have won Sunak at least one vote up here, cast with great reluctance, and only if the Tories have the best chance of beating the SNP, quite possible where I live. Such is the warped state of politics north of the Border.

 

[jfollows]

One slight issue to bear in mind is the Labour MP from 2017-19 was not selected as their candidate for the next election, such they've decided to run as an Independent who may split the vote. However given the national picture it's still a tall order for it not to go Labour.

Absolutely.
Kensington sounds as if it ought to be a Conservative seat, but it actually has large areas of mainly Labour-voting relatively poor voters, it's very mixed, plus a lot of its richer residents aren't voters because they're foreign nationals.

 

[The Ham]

A lot of middle class folks will never vote Lib Dem again, due to the tuition fee shafting.

Just as he did the rest of us.


I think at least some are prepared to hold their noses and vote tactically for a LibDem this time around

I can only go in my local area, it's somewhere where a lot go to Uni (either kids from here or workers having been and now living here), and yet there's been a growing level of Lib Dem support over the last decade - to the point that 2 years ago the local council election was a near 50:50 vote split between first and second Tory Lib Dems.

10 years ago it would have been more likely that the Tories would have had at least 50% more votes than any other party. Actually it wasn't that long ago in a general election they had around 75% of the total vote.

Whilst I suspect that here would stay blue, I'm fairly sure that there's a little concern from the Lib Dems candidate that they could possibly win and would have to have an election for their district council seat.