Russia invades Ukraine

[Iskra]

Let’s hope there’s calm heads in Poland at the moment.

Whilst it was great news at the weekend that Russia had withdrew it's troops from Kherson, seeing Ukraine had taken back control of the city and seeing all those scenes of celebration in the city and even talk that this is the beginning of the end of the war. I myself was not feeling too optimistic about the coming weeks/months. I knew that Putin would not give up easily. And here we are tonight, with Putin ordering massive strikes across Ukraine tonight, and also a Russian cruise missile has hit POLAND. Very worrying how this could escalate now. This could be the start of Russia now also invading POLAND. This is all an absolutely bloody nightmare.

More likely the Poles invade Russia…

Hopefully there’s calm heads in Poland tonight

 

[DanNCL]

I don't know what to think of this. One the one hand you could argue that this isn't significant enough to warrant triggering article 5, but on the other you could argue that if article 5 doesn't get triggered when Russian missiles hit NATO territory than what's the point of article 5 existing.

I don't think this is accidental, I think Putin has done this deliberately to see what the west's response is.

More likely the Poles invade Russia…

Nonsense.

 

[Iskra]

I don't know what to think of this. One the one hand you could argue that this isn't significant enough to warrant triggering article 5, but on the other you could argue that if article 5 doesn't get triggered when Russian missiles hit NATO territory than what's the point of article 5 existing.

I don't think this is accidental, I think Putin has done this deliberately to see what the west's response is.


Nonsense.

I was joking. But, it’s no more absurd than thinking Russia has the military ability to invade Poland after the total embarrassment that Ukraine has been for them.

 

[Busaholic]

I was joking. But, it’s no more absurd than thinking Russia has the military ability to invade Poland after the total embarrassment that Ukraine has been for them.

Has anybody been saying that? You can direct missiles without invading somewhere cf Kyiv in the last couple of weeks. Don't forget, Putin has threatened nuclear retaliation should any blade of grass in what is (indisputably) Russia be violated by Ukraine, to use their language.

 

[Iskra]

Has anybody been saying that? You can direct missiles without invading somewhere cf Kyiv in the last couple of weeks. Don't forget, Putin has threatened nuclear retaliation should any blade of grass in what is (indisputably) Russia be violated by Ukraine, to use their language.

Post 5937 says just that.

 

[Darandio]

Has anybody been saying that?

Yes, earlier in the thread.

Don't forget, Putin has threatened nuclear retaliation should any blade of grass in what is (indisputably) Russia be violated by Ukraine, to use their language.

Ukraine have violated it several times. Crimea is 'indisputably' Russia according to them. It's bluster for domestic consumption.

 

[adc82140]

I think this is likely to be some sort of mishap. The result of an attempted shoot down. Doesn't make it any less serious for Russia, who have no business flinging missiles anywhere. It won't have NATO attacking Russia- that's in no one's interest. They can defend "every inch" of NATO territory in many ways. I would expect the shipping of more advanced air defence to Ukraine, and more NATO troops and aircraft in Poland. Article 4 is likely to be declared, which requires "consultations" between members.

I would be very surprised if a situation like this happening hasn't been discussed many times amongst the NATO allies. It wasn't if but when.

 

[ainsworth74]

Perhaps we should all take a deep breath before declaring that this is one of a) Russia commencing combat operations against Poland, b) the provocation needed for a full scale NATO invasion of Russia, c) something similarly lunatic.

Russia has committed something which is quite escalatory, particularly because Polish civilians have been killed if this was a random field a couple of cows it would be serious but not as serious. But lets not lose our heads.

Article 4 is likely to be declared, which requires "consultations" between members.

It is also worth noting that Article 4 has been triggered on multiple occasions in the past. Most recently in February 2022 but on multiple occasions previously. It is a serious step but also not an unprecedented step.

Deep breath and calm down.

 

[Iskra]

I think this is likely to be some sort of mishap. The result of an attempted shoot down. Doesn't make it any less serious for Russia, who have no business flinging missiles anywhere. It won't have NATO attacking Russia- that's in no one's interest. They can defend "every inch" of NATO territory in many ways. I would expect the shipping of more advanced air defence to Ukraine, and more NATO troops and aircraft in Poland. Article 4 is likely to be declared, which requires "consultations" between members.

I would be very surprised if a situation like this happening hasn't been discussed many times amongst the NATO allies. It wasn't if but when.

I agree, I’d expect to see significantly enhanced Anti-Air coverage over Eastern Europe now, this is the perfect excuse for it and it will also save countless Ukrainian lives and undermine the Russian war effort. Putin can’t retaliate against defensive weapons.

 

[Strathclyder]

Ukraine have violated it several times. Crimea is 'indisputably' Russia according to them. It's bluster for domestic consumption.

Indeed and hence should be taken as that.

Although, the hysteria it causes amongst some quarters of our country, whose instinctive first reaction is to take it at face-value without researching it/checking with a reputable news source first must be a nice side-effect for Putin.

 

[GS250]

Perhaps we should all take a deep breath before declaring that this is one of a) Russia commencing combat operations against Poland, b) the provocation needed for a full scale NATO invasion of Russia, c) something similarly lunatic.

Russia has committed something which is quite escalatory, particularly because Polish civilians have been killed if this was a random field a couple of cows it would be serious but not as serious. But lets not lose our heads.

It is also worth noting that Article 4 has been triggered on multiple occasions in the past. Most recently in February 2022 but on multiple occasions previously. It is a serious step but also not an unprecedented step.

Deep breath and calm down.

Agreed.

However I guess Busaholic has a point. Putin could be playing games and testing NATO resolve. If this happens again, maybe against a more built up target, then we know hes trying to provoke NATO for some strange reason.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

Poland 'raises military readiness'​

Polish government spokesman Piotr Muller has confirmed that there was an explosion that killed two Polish citizens, Reuters news agency reports.
Poland is raising the readiness of its military units, he says, and "verifying if we need to activate Nato Article Four".
That article says: "The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

From BBC Website https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855.

This should be reassuring - no mention of anything to do with article five.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Perhaps we should all take a deep breath before declaring that this is one of a) Russia commencing combat operations against Poland, b) the provocation needed for a full scale NATO invasion of Russia, c) something similarly lunatic.

It might not count for much, but I'm sitting here in Poland with a cup of tea and wondering what all the fuss is about in this thread.

It's more than likely one of three things:

a) The remains of a Russian missile that was shot down
b) The remains of a Ukrainian weapon that was used to shoot down a Russian missile
c) An accident by either side

None of this is worth getting worked up about, unless you're the Polish government in the middle of a deep crisis and in the knowledge that the Falklands/Iraq effect is a real thing.

I don't see any deliberate attack here. Accidents happen in war.

 

[adc82140]

Unconfirmed reports are emerging, according to Sky News, that it was an S-300 air defence missile from the Ukranian forces. Very unfortunate if so, but I wouldn't use it as a criticism of Ukraine. They had circa 100 incoming Russian missiles to deal with today, and accidents happen.

 

[Darandio]

I think we need to get a grip here on the concept of provocation and what has gone before. It's important to state how sad it is that two people appear to have died here. Ultimately some (reported) Russian weaponry tumbling 500m over the border isn't that big in the grand scheme of things.

We've already been there in spades......

Reducing/cutting the gas supply against Western Europe. Quite a provocation.
Destroying the gas pipelines, no it wasn't us. Quite a provocation.
Blocking vital grain and other commodity exports. Huge provocation that resonates around the world.
Sending foreign nationals to the front line to die. See above.
Plus many more.....

Being a physical weapon of war doesn't automatically make it more provocative than any of those.

Interestingly the BBC are now quoting from those that apparently know such things that this may be from an S-300 system. Primarily surface to air, it's used on both sides and Russia have reportedly used it in ground attacks previously. But it's not impossible that this was a stray piece of kit with the Ukrainian flag painted on.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Unconfirmed reports are emerging, according to Sky News, that it was an S-300 air defence missile from the Ukranian forces. Very unfortunate if so, but I wouldn't use it as a criticism of Ukraine. They had circa 100 missiles to deal with today, and accidents happen.

Makes sense. Ukraine is well known to have plenty of military storage bases next to the border for various reasons, and the S-300 system isn't very good (as witnessed by its failure to protect Crimea).

As I thought when I first saw the news: nothing to stress about. However, the Polish government will be seething, because they're in deep trouble and they need something to rouse the patriotic masses...or something.

 

[kristiang85]

It is almost certainly a mistake. But definitely I can see a military warning being sent to Putin to not risk doing it again, most like in improved defensive systems being sent to Ukraine. Nobody wants to escalate things.

 

[Iskra]

I think we need to get a grip here on the concept of provocation and what has gone before. It's important to state how sad it is that two people appear to have died here. Ultimately some (reported) Russian weaponry tumbling 500m over the border isn't that big in the grand scheme of things.

We've already been there in spades......

Reducing/cutting the gas supply against Western Europe. Quite a provocation.
Destroying the gas pipelines, no it wasn't us. Quite a provocation.
Blocking vital grain and other commodity exports. Huge provocation that resonates around the world.
Sending foreign nationals to the front line to die. See above.
Plus many more.....

Being a physical weapon of war doesn't automatically make it more provocative than any of those.

Interestingly the BBC are now quoting from those that apparently know such things that this may be from an S-300 system. Primarily surface to air, it's used on both sides and Russia have reportedly used it in ground attacks previously. But it's not impossible that this was a stray piece of kit with the Ukrainian flag painted on.

Don’t forget the long history of Russian cyber attacks too.

 

[Darandio]

Don’t forget the long history of Russian cyber attacks too.

And interference in democratic elections on foreign soil. Also murdering/attempting to murder their own nationals on foreign soil. The list goes on and it's all intense provocation regardless of whether they're involved in a "special military operation" or not.

You could make the argument this is small fry in comparison.

 

[adc82140]

Don’t forget the long history of Russian cyber attacks too.

And a chemical weapons attack on the streets of Salisbury killing a civilian.

 

[kristiang85]

And a chemical weapons attack on the streets of Salisbury killing a civilian.

Indeed. I'm astounded how easily they were let off for that.

 

[Iskra]

And interference in democratic elections on foreign soil. Also murdering/attempting to murder their own nationals on foreign soil. The list goes on and it's all intense provocation regardless of whether they're involved in a "special military operation" or not.

You could make the argument this is small fry in comparison.

And a chemical weapons attack on the streets of Salisbury killing a civilian.

Indeed. I'm astounded how easily they were let off for that.

Big question… is it appeasement to ignore all these things?

 

[Mike395]

I suspect that if the 'unnamed US intelligence official' hadn't tipped off the press regarding this incident, we wouldn't be even having this conversation now as we'd be none the wiser through the press until the facts were established (and perhaps if it was found to be accidental never actually talked about further in public). I also agree with Cloud Strife for what its worth, the chance of it being anything other than an accident/shot down missile seems very low to me.

 

[adc82140]

Big question… it it appeasement to ignore all these things?

Appeasement or pragmatism. That's a huge debate!

 

[Mike395]

Appeasement or pragmatism. That's a huge debate!

And not one to have in this thread please (Though by all means start a new one!)

 

[DarloRich]

NATO/Poland need a a clear explanation of what has happened before any steps are taken. Intent must be the key driver surely. I hope it is an error or a wild Ukrainian defensive missile. This is, though, possible escalatory IF it is a deliberate Russia attack which i cant think that it is. ( why hit a random Polish farm?)

The Russians are, of course, claiming no knowledge and insisting this is a "provocation".

 

[adc82140]

When it comes down to it, how will anyone be able to tell if it was deliberate or not? It's almost certainly an S-300 missile. They are hardly precision munitions.

 

[DarloRich]

When it comes down to it, how will anyone be able to tell if it was deliberate or not?

first work out who it belongs to and then ask them! What we see in the public discourse and what happens behind the scenes and by other channels is unknow to us.

 

[adc82140]

first work out who it belongs to and then ask them! What we see in the public discourse and what happens behind the scenes and by other channels is unknow to us.

Even if it does belong to Russia, the intent would be difficult to prove. There is energy infrastructure on the Ukrainian side of the border, which Russia sees as "legitimate" as a target. Deliberate vs incompetent is going to be a difficult one to call.

 

[DarloRich]

Even if it does belong to Russia, the intent would be difficult to prove.

of course - but i am sure there are assessments that can be made from their response, their language, how and what they do or do not say in that response. That is what the Foreign Office are for.