Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

Those don’t seem to have been a major factor in this war. Has their capability been eroded?

This is most certainly not my area of expertise(!) but I read what I thought was a good article about this recently (which I now can’t find, sorry). In short, it said that Western countries, and also Ukraine, have increased their resilience against this kind of attack (I recall Ukraine being targeted early on but they seemed to recover quickly). Also, cyber attacks are a single use weapon so it’s possible that Russia is holding some capability back “just in case”. I immediately thought “T-14” when I read that, but it does actually make sense.

 

[Iskra]

This seems to have had no effect so far. Putin has very much underestimated the strength of revulsion Ukrainians have for Russia.


Those don’t seem to have been a major factor in this war. Has their capability been eroded?

I thought they did a Cyberattack alongside the initial invasion? But, yeah the impact doesn’t seem to have been all that great.

Ukraine probably has much better cyber defence in place now, I know there are US military advisors helping Ukraine with this.

 

[ainsworth74]

The concerning thing for me is that if this is a result of a defensive system in Ukraine, then Russian attacks are flying very close to NATO borders. This sort of thing could happen again and in this sort of situation could easily escalate. NATO for now are holding back & assessing it, which is the right thing to do. But tensions are high and rising, and as anyone who remembers the Cold War years this can lead to a lot of nervousness & risks itchy trigger fingers on all sides.

Not necessarily the case Russian attacks are coming close to the Polish/Ukrainian border. S-300 is a long range system. Potentially several hundred kilometres (though I'm not sure the exact variety of S-300 missiles, radars and command systems the Ukrainian's so might be more like 75-100km).

If the launcher is hard against the border (which is logical, dissuades Russia from attacking for precisely the reason we've seen and they don't have to worry about attacks against the launchers from at least one direction) then it could still be engaging targets much deeper in Ukraine but a failure shortly after launch could still send a missile a fair way into Poland.

Not ruling out Russia strikes close to the border but its not necessarily the case that this missile was launched against a strike close to it.

 

[DustyBin]

To quote Biden it looks “unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia”. I may be reading too much into semantics here, but to me “from” has a different meaning to “by” in this context. It could have been fired from Belarus or the Black Sea for example, by Russia. The best outcome of course is that it was in fact a stray Ukrainian air defence missile, but we’ll have to wait and see.

 

[Bantamzen]

The Russians are nasty, but they are not suicidal. The attacks close to the border thus far have been from their limited stocks of precision munitions, fired from bombers over undisputed Russian territory or from ships in the Black Sea. They seem to be using the dumb bombs more in the east.

They are also led by a blindingly stubborn & increasingly desperate leader, who seems to be leading Russia closer & closer to the brink. We are probably now in the hands of the chain of command beneath him to temper his actions & prevent Russia coming into direct conflict with any NATO countries.

Not necessarily the case Russian attacks are coming close to the Polish/Ukrainian border. S-300 is a long range system. Potentially several hundred kilometres (though I'm not sure the exact variety of S-300 missiles, radars and command systems the Ukrainian's so might be more like 75-100km).

If the launcher is hard against the border (which is logical, dissuades Russia from attacking for precisely the reason we've seen and they don't have to worry about attacks against the launchers from at least one direction) then it could still be engaging targets much deeper in Ukraine but a failure shortly after launch could still send a missile a fair way into Poland.

Not ruling out Russia strikes close to the border but its not necessarily the case that this missile was launched against a strike close to it.

The concern is that, for example this strike was launched from Belarus (which is one of the potential scenarios being speculated) and that it might have come close to or even breached Polish airspace if it were targeting Lviv. We know that Russia isn't adverse to testing other airspaces with it's air force, maybe something similar is being tested here. Either way by luck or design, it has somewhat deflected (pun intended) governments & media attention from the large number of other strikes, even managing to cast some doubt over Ukraine's involvement.

 

[Howardh]

Russia are denying it was tham. Even if it was or wasn't - that's probably good because if it was them, then it's an error and they don't want it escalating otherwise they'd say "it was us, a warning to NATO etc etc" or something similar and NATO would be totally involved.

Hoping though it was Ukraine and just a rogue missile and if so would NATO "apologise" to Putin for putting him in the frame?

One other consequence, if it was Russia, would his generals now think WW3's approaching and put Putin out of our misery to prevent that?

 

[ainsworth74]

The concern is that, for example this strike was launched from Belarus (which is one of the potential scenarios being speculated) and that it might have come close to or even breached Polish airspace if it were targeting Lviv.

Of course I'm not ruling out that Russia is behind this one or would risk striking near the Polish border but I'd just be slightly more hesitant than if we were talking about somewhere further east in Ukraine.

We know that Russia isn't adverse to testing other airspaces with it's air force, maybe something similar is being tested here.

Yes and no. Approaching the twelve mile limit, flying along the limit, etc yeah they do that all the time and we do the same. Actually violating, that is crossing the invisible line in the sky? To my knowledge the Russians (and NATO) have always been very careful not to cross that invisible line in the sky. If Russia was actually flying cruise or ballistic missile over Polish territory that would be a gargantuan escalation. The only reason they've been getting away with it over Moldova is because Moldova doesn't have an effective air force and lacks powerful friends. Neither apply to Poland.

Either way by luck or design, it has somewhat deflected (pun intended) governments & media attention from the large number of other strikes, even managing to cast some doubt over Ukraine's involvement.

Agreed.

 

[Iskra]

Putin has been telling his people Russia is already fighting NATO for months, that was excuse for withdrawal from Kherson. So if the Russian’s think they’re already fighting NATO, there’s actually little more scope for escalation on the Russian side at least. For the West it’s a perfect excuse to protect Ukraine and Eastern Europe with air defence missiles.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This seems to have had no effect so far. Putin has very much underestimated the strength of revulsion Ukrainians have for Russia.

Indeed. It certainly seems that Ukrainians would indeed, as the phrase goes, bite their nose off to spite their face*, and you can't really win in the long term against an enemy like that.

* By which I mean they will accept their country being flattened and lots of human loss because it's possible to rebuild - not being taken over by Russia trumps all else.

 

[Howardh]

Trying to follow several news stories at once, it's looking like it was a Ukranian air defence missile, if so the world can stand down a little, makes me feel better but with condolences to the berieved and to Russia for our press blaming them.

All unconfirmed, the Guardian doesn't even state where the reports came from, but...

Russia-Ukraine war: Zelenskiy dismisses Nato’s suggestion missile that hit Poland was Ukrainian – as it happened

Poland’s president and Nato both say missile likely an accident by Ukrainian forces – but Kyiv says ‘it was not our rocket’

www.theguardian.com

US and Russia separately agree missile that struck Poland was Ukrainian air defence – reports​

The US and Russia appear to have independently agreed that the missile which struck a Polish village on Tuesday, killing two people, was part of Ukraine’s air defences that had been attempting to fend off a Russian missile attack on Ukraine.

The Russian defence ministry has said that on Tuesday it had not targeted anywhere within 35km (22 miles) of the Ukraine-Poland border. In a statement reported by Tass the ministry said:

Statements by various Ukrainian sources and foreign officials about allegedly “Russian missiles” falling in the village of Przewodów are a deliberate provocation with the aim of escalating the situation.
The Russian ministry claimed to have identified the wreckage as a Ukrainian S-300 from photographs.

In a separate development, US president Joe Biden – who earlier suggested the idea the missile came from Russia was unlikely – has told Nato allies that the missile was Ukrainian air defence, according to a Nato source who has spoken to Reuters.

 

[Annetts key]

Russia are denying it was them

That’s exactly what I would expect regardless. Even if it was intended to land in Poland. Although I very much doubt that they did deliberately target anything in Poland, the missile(s) that they used in that area may have travelled over Polish air space.

Reports of how far beyond the border the missile(s) hit vary, but they are between 6 miles and 10 miles, which is rather more than the 500 metres seen earlier.

Hoping though it was Ukraine and just a rogue missile and if so would NATO "apologise" to Putin for putting him in the frame?

One other consequence, if it was Russia, would his generals now think WW3's approaching and put Putin out of our misery to prevent that?

No, why would N.A.T.O. apologise? If Russia had not illegally targeted civilian infrastructure with these missiles, then this incident would not have occurred.

And Russia knows full well what the situation is, so don’t expect Putin to disappear any time soon.

 

[adc82140]

No, why would N.A.T.O. apologise? If Russia had not illegally targeted civilian infrastructure with these missiles, then this incident would not have occurred.

True enough. But it wouldn't be enough to warrant a NATO response. It has parallels with Covid- had China not had some mucky practices at its wet markets we wouldn't have had a pandemic.

 

[najaB]

So if the Russian’s think they’re already fighting NATO, there’s actually little more scope for escalation on the Russian side at least.

The leaders of the Russian armed forces know that they aren't fighting NATO. For one thing, they're all still alive.

 

[ainsworth74]

and to Russia for our press blaming them.

Why should they? Russian's may well have not pulled the trigger but that Ukrainian missile was only fired because Russia was in the process of striking civilian targets throughout Ukraine. Russia is very much to blame for what happened yesterday afternoon.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why should they? Russian's may well have not pulled the trigger but that Ukrainian missile was only fired because Russia was in the process of striking civilian targets throughout Ukraine. Russia is very much to blame for what happened yesterday afternoon.

Russia is to blame, because without Russia there would be no war.

However, Russia did not deliberately attack NATO territory, which would be a wholly different game, the result of which would be World War III (and Putin knows he can't win that, even if it ends up in nuclear war which would mean both the West and Russia would lose).

 

[brad465]

Another one bites the bust in strange circumstances, this time it's "committing suicide" after the officer had multiple bullet wounds:

Mystery as Putin's military crony found shot dead with multiple bullet wounds in his office

A Russian colonel with close ties to Vladimir Putin, and who was involved in this autumn's mass recruitment drive for the army, has been found dead in his office.

www.lbc.co.uk

A Russian colonel with close ties to Vladimir Putin, and who was involved in this autumn's mass recruitment drive for the army, has been found dead in his office.

Vadim Boyko, 44, had multiple bullet wounds when a junior officer found him in the Makarov Pacific Higher Naval School in the far eastern city of Vladivostok, where he was deputy director.

Local Russian media outlet Dalnevostochnie Novosti and TV journalist Vladimir Oshchenko reported that Mr Boyko committed suicide.

"He went into his office and put a bullet in his head," Dalnevostochnie Novosti said.

But later reports from the Baza media outlet, which has close ties to Russian law enforcement, said Mr Boyko was found with five bullet casings and four pistols next to his body.

Baza questioned how Mr Boyko could have shot himself multiple times in the chest, and reported that he did not leave a suicide note.

Local media reported that Mr Boyko was closely involved in the mass mobilisation of Russian troops to be sent to Ukraine in September.

 

[DustyBin]

Another one bites the bust in strange circumstances, this time it's "committing suicide" after the officer had multiple bullet wounds:

Mystery as Putin's military crony found shot dead with multiple bullet wounds in his office

A Russian colonel with close ties to Vladimir Putin, and who was involved in this autumn's mass recruitment drive for the army, has been found dead in his office.

www.lbc.co.uk

I saw this yesterday. He appears to have shot himself once, and then four more times just to make sure. Only in Russia!

 

[Gloster]

Swedish prosecutors have confirmed that the pipeline explosions in the Baltic were sabotage as they have found traces of explosives at the site. Source: Dagens Nyheter. (There is also a report on the BBC site - A journey to the site of the Nord Stream explosions - that might give food for thought and concern, despite its restrained tone. Sorry, I can’t do links.)

 

[Cloud Strife]

Swedish prosecutors have confirmed that the pipeline explosions in the Baltic were sabotage as they have found traces of explosives at the site. Source: Dagens Nyheter. (There is also a report on the BBC site - A journey to the site of the Nord Stream explosions - that might give food for thought and concern, despite its restrained tone. Sorry, I can’t do links.)

Not much concern from me. They blew up their own property out of spite, and it has no real consequences.

 

[gingerheid]

Not much concern from me. They blew up their own property out of spite, and it has no real consequences.

The concern is that it could easily have been a pipeline (or cable) that wasn't theirs, and might be next time

 

[Gloster]

Not much concern from me. They blew up their own property out of spite, and it has no real consequences.

In itself it may have been of only modest importance, but my feeling is that they may have been saying, “Look what we can do”, with the aim of pushing the West/NATO into scaling down its support for Ukraine. The same may have been the case with the cables off Shetland.

 

[Iskra]

I just watched this video on the quality of the Russian military, and I thought it was extremely interesting so would post it in this thread:

 

[Busaholic]

So much wishful

I just watched this video on the quality of the Russian military, and I thought it was extremely interesting so would post it in this thread:

So much wishful thinking!! Russia has almost eliminated Ukraine's power systems and rail routes, which carried so much kit to reinforce Ukraine's defences in certain places. Russia has transferred 300,000 soldiers (their figure) to the other bank of the river from Kherson and the surrounding area, conscripts though many will be. Some think that figure is underestimated by perhaps as much as 200,000. Putin and his crowd, many of whom are probably even more barbarous and nationalistic than he is, won't be losing any sleep about this potential cannonfodder. They see 'the West' will never truly fight them until Russia has done the 'unspeakable' and exploded a nuclear device. Zelensky, poor man and no fool, I'm sure realises now that so much Western rhetoric was just that: no wonder he's not convinced that the missile killings in Poland weren't deliberate, even though they probably weren't. The American population, no doubt stirred up by Republicans of all types, are becoming increasingly unlikely to support Biden's apparently genuine efforts to provide succour to the Ukrainians and, like with Aghanistan, the benighted, heroic population will be largely left to their misery by the West's effective withdrawal.

 

[najaB]

So much wishful thinking!

A good description of your post, TBH.

 

[yorksrob]

So much wishful

So much wishful thinking!! Russia has almost eliminated Ukraine's power systems and rail routes, which carried so much kit to reinforce Ukraine's defences in certain places. Russia has transferred 300,000 soldiers (their figure) to the other bank of the river from Kherson and the surrounding area, conscripts though many will be. Some think that figure is underestimated by perhaps as much as 200,000. Putin and his crowd, many of whom are probably even more barbarous and nationalistic than he is, won't be losing any sleep about this potential cannonfodder. They see 'the West' will never truly fight them until Russia has done the 'unspeakable' and exploded a nuclear device. Zelensky, poor man and no fool, I'm sure realises now that so much Western rhetoric was just that: no wonder he's not convinced that the missile killings in Poland weren't deliberate, even though they probably weren't. The American population, no doubt stirred up by Republicans of all types, are becoming increasingly unlikely to support Biden's apparently genuine efforts to provide succour to the Ukrainians and, like with Aghanistan, the benighted, heroic population will be largely left to their misery by the West's effective withdrawal.

One has to hope that the West will continue to support Ukraine. Russia has shown itself to be the enemy that it truly is at heart, and grinding it down is the Wests best option.

 

[Annetts key]

So much wishful thinking!! Russia has almost eliminated Ukraine's power systems and rail routes, which carried so much kit to reinforce Ukraine's defences in certain places. Russia has transferred 300,000 soldiers (their figure) to the other bank of the river from Kherson and the surrounding area, conscripts though many will be. Some think that figure is underestimated by perhaps as much as 200,000. Putin and his crowd, many of whom are probably even more barbarous and nationalistic than he is, won't be losing any sleep about this potential cannonfodder. They see 'the West' will never truly fight them until Russia has done the 'unspeakable' and exploded a nuclear device. Zelensky, poor man and no fool, I'm sure realises now that so much Western rhetoric was just that: no wonder he's not convinced that the missile killings in Poland weren't deliberate, even though they probably weren't. The American population, no doubt stirred up by Republicans of all types, are becoming increasingly unlikely to support Biden's apparently genuine efforts to provide succour to the Ukrainians and, like with Aghanistan, the benighted, heroic population will be largely left to their misery by the West's effective withdrawal.

You post reads like Russian propaganda, and just like Russian propaganda, the facts are distorted or incorrect. Ukraine has said that around 40% of their electricity network has been affected by Russian attacks. Where it’s realistic, they are repairing what they can, so damaged transmission lines, and damaged switch gear. Various countries have offered transformers, switch gear and other replacement parts. Yes, the thermal and hydroelectric power stations will need rather more work.

Apart from bridges, it’s relatively quick to repair or put in place work arounds for damaged railway infrastructure. The Ukrainians have already demonstrated how quickly they can repair blast holes in important roads. Why would you assume they can’t carry out repairs to their railways?

Do you really think that Russia had 300,000 soldiers on the north western side of the Dinpro river? Or was it more like 20 to 30 thousand?

European and Western countries are still supplying weapons, ammunition, other military supplies as well as financial and other help. The U.S.A. Government is still controlled by the democrats until the beginning of January. So still time for them to put in place legislation for further help. And the lend-lease program is already in place. With the democrats retaining control of the senate and republicans only likely having a small majority in the house if representatives, it’s likely that the U.S.A. will continue to support Ukraine for at least another 12 months or so. Especially as opinion polls show that over 70% of Americans are in favour of the U.S.A. supporting Ukraine.

 

[Gloster]

European and Western countries are still supplying weapons, ammunition, other military supplies as well as financial and other help. The U.S.A. Government is still controlled by the democrats until the beginning of January. So still time for them to put in place legislation for further help. And the lend-lease program is already in place. With the democrats retaining control of the senate and republicans only likely having a small majority in the house if representatives, it’s likely that the U.S.A. will continue to support Ukraine for at least another 12 months or so. Especially as opinion polls show that over 70% of Americans are in favour of the U.S.A. supporting Ukraine.

One hopes so, but the MAGA/Trumpist/loony wing of the Republican Party pays no attention to anything except those inside their heads. If they think that they should cease, block or delay assistance to Ukraine, they will do so and will ignore the opinions of anyone who thinks otherwise, because they must be wrong because they think otherwise...

 

[najaB]

With the democrats retaining control of the senate and republicans only likely having a small majority in the house if representatives

Indeed. The Republican majority is going to be around 10 seats. There will be more than 10 small c conservatives who remember that Russia is a foe, rather than a friend.

 

[gingerheid]

And the last thing that Busaholic said not yet debunked was also rubbish, of course.

Have a look at Ukrzaliznytsia's website and use Google translate to read the "Current Topic" section of "Press Centre". Of course what they're running isn't a full pre war timetable. But what they're doing is utterly incredible. The speed with which interrupted services restart is remarkable, and it doesn't take them that long to build up a network of a level of service in liberated areas. One thing I know for certain is that we wouldnt be able to do the same.

It is absolutely too early to tell whether Ukraine will have a heroic victory, pyrrhic victory or a heroic defeat. But what is certain is that they have done enough to very clearly justify trying, and to show that there could have been no mort worthy recipient of support!

 

[yorksrob]

And the last thing that Busaholic said not yet debunked was also rubbish, of course.

Have a look at Ukrzaliznytsia's website and use Google translate to read the "Current Topic" section of "Press Centre". Of course what they're running isn't a full pre war timetable. But what they're doing is utterly incredible. The speed with which interrupted services restart is remarkable, and it doesn't take them that long to build up a network of a level of service in liberated areas. One thing I know for certain is that we wouldnt be able to do the same.

It is absolutely too early to tell whether Ukraine will have a heroic victory, pyrrhic victory or a heroic defeat. But what is certain is that they have done enough to very clearly justify trying, and to show that there could have been no mort worthy recipient of support!

And the West has every interest in ensuring that the Russian enemy isn't allowed more territory.